Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Mark Boden1,,
These grand challenges include the dynamics of demograpphic (ageing and migration), food supply, environmentta sustainability, climate change, decarbonised economic systems, poverty, terrorism, not to mention the continuing fallout from the long-running‘global financial crisis':
and‘wickedness'of grand challenges poses a fundamental problem for existing governance structures. Historically evolved systems of national and international public administtratio demonstrably have fundamental difficulties in addressing grand challenges that is not the kind of univeers they were designed to handle.
Hence the essentially accommodation responses that have been demonstrated‘we know how to negotiate treaties so that is what we will Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 135 139 doi:
to address the complexity of the grand challenges. Sadly the experience of international organisations established to provide a supranational mechanism for addressing such issues suggests that these models are incapable of engaging with such issues.
Cagnin, Amanatidou and Keenan address the roles that FTA can play in orienting the innovation system to more effectively address the grand challenges.
Weber, Cassingena Harper, Ko nno la and Carabias suggest that addressing the grand challenges requires a new kind of FTA.
Cutler, Marks, Meylan, Smith and Koivisto take the view that science will play a key role in society's response to emergent global grand challenges such as resource scarcity and global environmental change.
and human sciences, could play in addressing future global grand challenges. Ahlqvist Valovirta and Loikkanen describe the developmmen of a new policy instrument, innovation policy roadmapping,
and its role in assisting in aligning technologgica and societal perspectives with the more visionary framework necessary to address grand challenges.
Case study evidence is a core The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 137 feature of every FTA conference.
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play Cristiano Cagnin1*,Effie Amanatidou2 and Michael Keenan3 1dg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies
cristianocagnin@gmail. com A strong research and innovation policy discourse has emerged in recent years around the need to address‘grand challenges',particularly at EU level.
This paper highlights the contributions that future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) might make to orienting innovation processes towards grand challenges.
while enabling a shift in innovattio foci towards grand challenges. However, FTA could be exploited better to deliver its structuring and capacity-building benefits
in order to effectively reorient the EU's innovation systems towards grand challenges. Keywords: innovation systems; grand challenges; european union; foresight; technology assessment. 1. Introduction Recent years have seen a great deal of discussion on how science,
technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
This is part of a new mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global in outlook and oriented towards more societal goals.
The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturalll lend themselves to a global outlook, are grand in scope and scale,
and activists and the articulattio of such grand challenges is hardly novel. The main novelty lies in the increasing attention given to such issues in formulating new missions for STI policy.
and articulation of grand challenges at the EU level will mobilise Member States to better synchronise their STI policy instruments,
Grand challenges are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches. Even their meanings tend to be highly contesste by different actors Furthermore,
Addressing grand challenges requires the pooling of different knowledge bases and, in particular, closer collaboration between the‘hard'and social sciences and humanities..
Cross-departmental coordination and coherence beyond the traditional silos that characterise policymakking Grand challenges require multi-agency respoonse
and sub-national agendas and activities to address grand challenges..Technology convergence or fusion that opens up new possibilities to manage,
and harmful symptoms associated with grand challenges..Cross-sectoral collaboration between various industries with the complementary assets to address grand challenges..
Longer-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas and business planning practices.
If grand challenges are to be operationalised as rationales for STI policy interventions, the need to transcend these boundaries should be appreciated widely,
just as much exacerbate the problems associated with grand challenges as it can contribute to their solutions.
The STI agenda around grand challenges must therefore be about much more than just end-of-pipe technological fixes.
whether or not the new mission focus on grand challenges offers windows of opportunity for a more directed
This is followed by a discusssio (Section 4) of the systemic reorientation of innovattio systems towards grand challenges and the demands put on policy and governance.
Section 5 then explores the roles of fta in enabling a shift in innovation foci towards grand challenges.
as well as the contributtion FTA could make to orienting policy agendas towards grand challenges. Section 7 draws some conclusions. 2. Innovation:
Some essentials If innovation is to contribute to solving some of the grand challenges of our time,
In other words, it is important to move beyond the often glib political statements of the importance of innovation for grand challenges
This suggests there are many potential levers for shaping the direction of innovation towards grand challenges. At the same time, innovation is a systemic phenomenon by nature as it results from the continuing interaction between different actors and organisations (Freeman 1970.
This has implications for any attempts at guiding innovation activities towards grand challenges. Innovations can be radical and disruptive
when linking innovation agendas to grand challenges as it will likely act as a barrier to the radical changes that are needed probably.
Any reorientation of innovattio systems towards grand challenges is likely to require both the establishment of new organisations and the adaptation of existing ones..
This makes them an essential starting point in efforts to set in motion virtuous cycles of transformative change directed at grand challenges.
This is a potentially useful perspective for efforts directed at reorienting innovation systems towards grand challenges. Drawing upon a mix of sources (Bach and Matt 2005;
The mobilisation of resources has important consequences for knowledge development activities. 4. Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges The special nature of the requirements of grand challenges to find effective solutions brings to the fore concepts such as transformative
Furthermore, grand challenges cannot be dealt effectively with through technological innovaation alone. They require broader changes in human perceptions and behaviour,
The structural and functional elements of innovation systems presented above highlight sites for exploitation and intervention in support of grand challenges.
if innovation systems are to be oriented towards grand challenges. Starting with the structural elements, the global charactte of grand challenges and their boundary-spanning nature:
which sees them transcend both epistemic and administtrativ boundaries, implies a greater number and wider variety of actors involved in innovation systems.
Changes in soft institutions are likely to be particularly critical in determining progress in finding viable paths towards tackling grand challenges and any consequent change in paradigms that these may entail.
since certain grand challenges call for social responsibility and a business focus beyond a mere return on investment and greater orientation towards the public good.
Turning to the functions of innovation systems presennte earlier, Table 1 uses these to map a number of actions conducive to systemic reorientation towards grand challenges.
In this regard, FTA as a tool of governance could have a promising role to play in reorienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges. 5. FTA for orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges Th paper takes FTA to refer to systematic processes
or caused by grand challenges. Crucially at least from the perspective of transcending boundaries to better address grand challenges,
FTA PROCESSES bring longerteer perspectives and broader knowledge bases into decision-making processes. By doing so, they place greater emphasis on holistic and multiple perspective approaches under
so that they can better address grand challenges. These roles can be grouped under three main headings: informing decisionmakkin processes, structuring and mobilising actor networks,
when exploring the nature and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions. The knowledge developed under FTA helps to articulate visions and expectations
and their reorientation towards grand challenges Reorientation towards grand challenges Facilitate experimentation and learning Solutions to grand challenges will require, in many instances, radical socio-technical innovations.
Experimentation and learning needs to be strengthened, with greater amounts of probing and experimenttatio in areas that are potentially relevant to grand challenges.
This can be facilitated through, for example, research and innovation programmes Knowledge development Transformative shifts implied by solutions to grand challenges will need new knowledge as well as a new type of knowledge production.
New knowledge (including also non-technological knowledge) has to be developed on topics relevant to grand challenges among a distributed landscape of actors.
This implies a type of knowledge production close to the so-called‘mode 2'(Nowotny et al. 2003) acknowledging the distributed nature of knowledge,
and facilitating knowledge creation across differeen boundaries at various levels (as explained in Section 2) Knowledge diffusion Knowledge diffusion is given essential the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges.
and selection Dealing with grand challenges requires strong visions, strong in the sense that they constitute mobilising convictions among a large group of actors.
this is especially important given the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges Orienting European innovation systems. 145 knowledge
such as those around the means to tackle grand challenges. More broadly, FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainable solutions,
C. Cagnin et al. 6. Implications for European collaborative programmes This section examines some of the recent STI policy initiatiive of the EU that seek to better orient policy agendas towards grand challenges
Addressing grand challenges is at the core of EU policies for research and innovation as illustrated by the latest EU strategic policy documents.
creativity and cross-disciplinary research needed to tackle grand challenges, although this may be true to different degrees across the different research themes.
which are explicitly focusing on grand challenges. The Joint Programming Initiatives (JPIS) have been put forward as the main means for coordinating national and regional efforts towards commonly set research agendas and visions.
certain‘old'initiatives have become relevant in dealing with grand challenges. These initiatives reflect the importance put on linking research to innovattio
However, their scope and focus acknowledge the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges. They clearly highlight the inter-disciplinarity needed in the knowledge bases that have to be combined in searching for possible solutions
The identification of grand challenges and the corresponding priorities for research and innovation through the use of forward-looking activities is mentioned explicitly in the Council's conclusions (December 2009) 7 on guidance on future priorities for European research.
Especially in relation to knowledge productiion the role of FTA is seen to be important for encouraging the multi-disciplinarity needed both in terms of research focus as well as in the identification of policy implications given the interdependencies of grand challenges
Nevertheless, FTA could also play other potential roles in the new instruments dealing with grand challenges through better exploitation of its structuring and capacity-building roles
which are equally important in dealing with grand challenges although hardly recognised. With regards to its structuring role,
and develop will be crucial in trying to find novel solutiion to grand challenges. Such a role could be accommodated in the stages of shaping a common vision for the selected theme or challenge at hand,
and complementarity needed in regional, national and EU-level efforts to tackle grand challenges. Additionally, the role of FTA in developing and mobilising resources becomes relevant in identifying the most relevant actors
which ultimately supports the achievement of the inclusiveness claimed to be needed in dealing with grand challenges.
and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,
It has argued that a reorientation of innovation systems towards grand challenges could offer opportunities for a more responsible and transformative innovation practice to develop.
But it has highlighted also the boundary-spanning scope of grand challenges and the difficulties this implies in mobilising actors
In this context, this paper has introduced some of the contributions that FTA could make to orienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges.
otherwise act as barriers to progress on addressing grand challenges. In this sense, it can perform a more structuring role for innovation systems in need of reorientation.
in effectively orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges remains under-exploited. One rectifying step would be to better consider the structural and functional aspects of innovattio systems with a view to identifying bottlenecks and appropriate points for effective policy intervention.
when identifying grand societal challenges as well as in translating an already identified grand challenge into an operational reality by defining scenarios,
and facilitate the application of fta approaches on a contining basis. Applying FTA in the framework of joint initiatives in dealing with grand challenges should aim both to find effective solutions for grand challenges
and contribute to a better appreciation of the roles FTA can play in reorientiin innovation systems towards grand challenges.
The categories of grand challenges identified by theeuropean Research area (ERA) Rationales Expert Group (European commission 2008) provide one typology of transformations.
Different types of grand challenges call for different transformation models and policy strategies. The distinction between disrupptiv and recognised grand challenges referred to in the European Science Foundation report (European Science Foundation 2010) highlights the fact that areas of disruptiiv grand challenges can be exogenous
or endogenous and are low-probability (emerging), high-impact issues that challenge societal and economic health.
Recognised grand challenge areas are‘grand'in the sense that they are instantly recognisable as representing a major aspect of human
Addressing grand challenges requires public appreciattio of the important role played by R&i in meeting social, environmental and other needs.
Worldwide and regional (European) networks of the FTA units in international organisations, national and at least for some grand challenges regional (subnational) governments, business and nongovernmental organisations are providing an organisaationa solution to share policy perspectives
Cagnin, C.,Amanatidou, E. and Keenan, M. 2012)‘ Orienting European Innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play',Science and Public policy, 39: 140 52.
grand challenges',Science and Public policy, 39: 166 77. Ko nno la, T. and Haegeman, K. 2012b)‘ Embedding foresight in transnational research programming',Science and Public policy, 39: 191 207.
Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'Michael Keenan1,,*Paul Cutler2, 3, John Marks4, Richard Meylan2, 5, Carthage Smith2 and Emilia Koivisto2, 6 1directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
International council for science. 1. Introduction Responses to grand challenges, if they are to be effective, will depend on science.
Examples of grand challenges from climate change to increasing resource depletion emphasise the need for international, indeed, global responses.
In turn, the complexity of grand challenges and the need for cross-country responses point to the signifiican role of international cooperation in science.
particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges. One such international organisation is ICSU.
Taking place at Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'167 the height of the Cold war, it demonstrated that even during tense political times scientists from around the world could work together for the betterment of society.
'Acknowledging this highlighted the need for a multi-phase exercise, where the key drivers of change Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
Many of the grand challenges that ICSU activities are focused upon, particularly climate change, involve change over relatively long time periods measured at least in decades.
science acts fairly Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'171 independently from society (e g. in terms of scientists setting the agenda and the lack of strong engagement of science and scientists in decision-making processes.
for resources Efforts to address grand challenges through global collective action are weak Science largely detached from societal needs
Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'173 a more visionary‘success scenario'intended to help guide the long-term direction of ICSU.
Another challenge concerns accommodating some of the regional differences in perspective that undoubbtedl exist on the subject of international science cooperratio for grand challenges.
The new approach is symbolised by a global grand challenges science programme in which each nation agrees to contribute a minimum of 1%of its public research budget
Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.'175 Finally, the exercise and ICSU's other uses of foresigght e g. in the Earth systems visioning exercise have demonstrated the feasibility of using foresight in support of international science cooperation activities.
These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.
The Grand challenges. Paris: International council for science..(2011a) ICSU Strategic Plan II, 2012 2017. Paris: International council for science..(2011b)‘ ICSU Foresight Analysis Report 1:
Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.
Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design Toni Ahlqvist1,,*Ville Valovirta2 and Torsti Loikkanen2 1vtt Technical research Centre of Finland, Ita inen Pitka katu 4, Turku, P o box 106,20521 Turku, Finland 2vtt Technical research
and the so-called‘grand challenges'that are assessed as the most important factors structuring the roadmap topic.
grand challenges; policy coordination; futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de One urgent mission for European research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time.
grand challenges; global challenges; megatrends; societal demand. 1. Introduction: The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
This enhanced the existing discussion about challenges and needs-oriented approaches versus a science and technology push.
Grand challenges are discussed at many levels, for instance, the EU, the regions, nations, cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:
or‘grand challenges'as they are called often, are discussed at nearly every conference or workshop. But when a definition is called for,
or grand challenges) and was regarded therefore as an appropriate starting point for the Fraunhofer Future markets process. 2. 1. 4 Fourth example.
Some of these needs can be defined by the global/grand challenges. This does not mean that the entire research landscape should be focused on global/grand challenges alone
but that a more active part is needed here. The Lund Declaration (2009) made clear that:
European research must focus on the grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well
K. Cuhls et al. this new arena and consider what the grand challenges means for itself or himself.
Global or grand challenges were regarded therefore as a‘means'to direct Fraunhofer's collaborative research into a direction with societal impact.
The team selecting the grand challenges consisted of members from the headquarters in Munich and from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe.
Figure 3. Assessment of grand challenges according to a set of Fraunhofer criteria. Fraunhofer future markets. 239 Figure 5. Example of assessment for subchallenges and technological approaches.
This means that their focus is not on providing overall large solutions to the grand challenges.
The formulation of this compromise was therefore rather conservative and similar to the grand challenges of other institutions (see also Section 1 of this paper.
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