Vision

Alternative vision (6)
Collective vision (6)
Desired vision (10)
Different vision (7)
Guiding vision (7)
Long-term vision (20)
Shared vision (28)
Vision (743)
Vision papers (7)
Vision project (26)

Synopsis: Vision:

visions and techniques will challenge current evaluation processes and ideas. Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders

and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.

This coherence is facilitated, for instance, by shared problem perceptions and visions. But, as we will argue in the next section,

according to visions of sustainable development, developed in a participatory foresight process. We, therefore, see adaptive planning as a way to overcome this lack of realism in much foresight work

Adaptive with respect to the need for making foresight an iterative monitoring and learning process to adjust visions

formulation of collective visions and objectives The normative dimension can also be addressed usefully at the initial workshop.

A possible starting point is therefore a debate on visions related to the focal issue of the exercise.

The visions and objectives are also an important input to Phases 5 and 6. 3. 2. 6. Phase 5:

because it helps capture the room for manoeuver available to move towards a collective vision, but within the confines of the respective framework scenarios.

Principles and general vision by countries), Econ. Ind. 341 (2001) 107 118.4 A. Tübke, K. Ducatel, J. P. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello, Strategic policy intelligence:

at best, help the stakeholders overcome possible barriers by supporting shared vision-building, networking and priority setting (see, e g.,

Within the ERA NETS, the general objectives of an embedded foresight process can be defined as i) vision-building for clarifying shared interests and joint benefits of international collaboration,

Internet-based group-support systems, facilitated workshops, RPM Screening) were employed to foster vision-building, networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.

Vision-building: Although the consultation process focused on thematic content (rather than regulatory, institutional, organizational and cultural differences),

and standardisation within formal standards development organisations for the implementation of these visions. Table 2 presents the assessment of the 21 telecommunication-related technologies expected to diffuse mostly within the next ten years.

these assessments are functioning if not always characterised by breadth of focus (a broader view of the field) and depth of vision (i e. possible applications in the long term.

lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis The vision of performing laboratory experiments at a micro or even nanoscale was posed first by Terry 50 who linked the idea of integrated microelectronics to the notion of integrated

and stimulate a proliferation of research projects towards the vision of TAS. In the mid 1990s other scientific communities (synthetic chemists;

Fig. 1. Phases of materialization of the vision of lab-on-a-chip. Fig. 2. Broader innovation issues of the transition from research lab to company in the single cell analysis innovation chain. 524 D. K. R. Robinson,

The visions of lab-on-a-chip devices still remain a promise just out of reach. With many start-ups and SMES focusing on individual components related to the six functions,

The existing technologies and the visions we have mapped here refer to results, or visions, of actors involved in the innovation process.

Actors can and do link up with application areas such as those mapped in the top section of the Figure.

However, it is only the aggregate effect of actors linking up with visions of application,

in which all would benefit would be needed as a guiding vision. The idea of a generic platform is contended still (this contention was included in one of the three socio-technical scenarios)

Vision Assessment of Molecular Machines, J. Scientometrics 70 (3)( 2007. 42 U. Meyer, C. Schubert, Die Konstitution technologischer Pfade.

Intermediate impacts included the development of visions of the future; recommendations and options for action;

The raised awareness of the need for consensus-building approaches in long-term vision-setting exercises in order to ensure the sustainability of resultant polices was acknowledged as another unforeseen impact of the exercise.

However, it can work in cases of diminishing rivalry or the pursuit of a common vision.

As a rule, the more the expertise/visions/interest of contributors become part of the programme,

A set of‘cascading'visions are devised to demonstrate the close links between three levels. First, alternative futures are developed for the EU by considering (i) the overall rationale of EU policies;

as well as distinct viewpoints are indispensable for building policy-relevant visions. The proposed three-level structure of futures or‘cascading'visions offers several advantages for policy-makers at various Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

(2008) 558 582 E-mail address: havasatt@econ. core. hu. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:

it is of crucial importance to underpin the proposed new round of reforms by thorough and systematic prospective analyses, e g. by developing‘futures'(‘visions'or‘scenarios').

while other documents only discuss a single vision, i e. do not consider alternative futures; a striking example of that approach is the recent EU Green Paper on the European research area 3. Georghiou

the shared visions and policy recommendations, stemming from the dialogue among participants, offer a basis for faster and more efficient implementation.

in Section 4 alternative visions are devised at three levels, with the time horizon of 2020 2025.

taking into account the relevant ERIA visions. In other words, this third level, itself, is consisted of a set of futures.

'but the main purpose of this paper to experiment with the proposed 3-level structure for building futures, rather than to offer fully fledged visions, covering all aspects.

etc. 8 Several ERA visions have been devised by putting governance issues into the centre, see e g. 18 20 the ones developed in this paper follow a different logic. 9 The term‘universities'is used as shorthand for all sorts of higher education organisations. 10 The first attempt to do so can be found in a previous

let alone among different types of them. 568 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 4. Futures for universities Vision-building requires an intense dialogue among stakeholders for two reasons:(

shared visions and consensus on the actions need to be taken; commitment to act upon the recommendations emerging from the process.

and thus first visions are devised on the EU as a whole. Then the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) is taken into account as a‘mezzo level'system.

Finally, the most important trends and drivers are addressed at the level of universities. 25 These futures (visions

These visions offer a description of future states in 2020 2025 rather than fully fledged or path scenarios

Furtherrmore it is beyond the scope of this paper to enter into a detailed consideration of the degree of probability of specific visions.

p. 1. In brief, visions should highlight the role of policy in realising the desired and feasible future. 25 Note that the national

The major underlying assumptions for building visions for EU universities should be spelt out before addressing the more detailed issues,

and (ii) its overall performance compared to the other Triad regions (Table 1). 29 None of the five visions presented in Table 1 can be dismissed on logical grounds,

but only subjective judgements could Table 1 Visions for the EU EU vs. Triad Internal strategy Cohesion (societal issues) Competitiveness(‘multi-speed EU')Successful EU A) Double success:

Finland and Sweden points to the possibility of a‘reformed European socioeconomic model'46,47. b This vision requires an efficient co-ordination of a number of policies,

The vision itself, however, makes no assumption if this co-ordination is achieved via heavy-handed top-down mechanisms,

or not a‘federal EU'.(See also two visions of the EUROPOLIS project, coined Federal Europe,

EU visions: Double success vs. Successful multi-speed EU ERIA EU Double success Successful multi-speed EU Rationale for EU RTDI policies Double-track:

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 be made concerning the probability of these visions. In other words, we do not have any sound

reliable method to predict which of these visions is most likely to materialise. The actual relevance and use of them is to present stark choices in terms of strategies,

In that way, these visions can inform present-day decisions, and also show the possibilities to shape our future.

These different visions for the EU as a whole have strong implications for the ERIA, too. In principle therefore, different types of ERIAS can be derived from the above five visions. 30 In practice,

however, not Table 2 (continued) ERIA EU Double success Successful multi-speed EU Innovation systems, co-operation among key players a Intense communication among businesses, academia, policy-makers,

Moreover, devising 10 15 visions for the ERIA (2 3 ERIA visions times 5 EU visions) would introduce an unmanageable complexity into this exercise.

Thus, two cases have been selected to be considered when building ERIA visions: A) Double success and B) Successful multi-speed EU. What sort of ERIA would be needed to support an‘externally'successful, cohesive EU (Double success?

that is part of the Double success vision. 31 The alternative approach would favour using the EU funds exclusively

but the main features of the types of ERIA‘fitting'to the broad visions of Double success and Successful multi-speed EU are presented in Table 2. 4. 2. Futures states of universities

'As already mentioned, visions for universities are built on alternative futures for the EU and ERIA, that is, Double success and Successful multi-speed EU, respectively.

although not a trivial task to start this exercise by devising alternative futures (visions) on their broader socioeconomic context.

In other words, a set of‘cascading'visions have been developed to demonstrate the close links between these three levels.

'What is striking in this respect is the sheer lack of alternative visions in the 2007 Green Paper on The European research area 3. A major benefit for policy-makers (at the EU,

considering the rows in the ERIA visions, e g. exploring the impacts of given polices on the mobility of researchers and students inside the EU or globally.

can be analysed by devising appropriate visions for these broader systems;(ii) the observed diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be reflected by identifying appropriate ideal types (which,

Contested Visions of Higher education in Society. A. Smith and F. Webster eds. Open University Press, Buckingham;

A visualization of the resultant hierarchical random graph is shown below in Fig. 5. Table 1 Comparative analysis of network characteristics.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 The elaboration of a joint system representation by the different organizations in the Kiese catchment furthermore prepared the ground for intensified collaboration and shared visions.

However, it had been formulated as a vague vision that resulted mainly from a technical analysis of the current infrastructure components (unresolved problems in water quality

Policy 13 (3)( 2006) 254 264.41 Vision 2030 Consortium, Vision 2030 Final Report. An Investigation into the Long-term challenges and Opportunities for the UK's Strategic Highway Network, Highway Agency for England, London, 2003.42 Office of Science and Technology, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, Foresight Directorate

typically reported as scenarios, visions, roadmaps and action recommendations. The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years,

the increasingly complex world creates new types of risks that shouldn't be bypassed with the examination of future opportunities, creation of shared visions and assessment of desired impacts.

In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.

and generating rivalling visions. Fixed vs. autonomous management o Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the exercise at the outset and control the process,

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

Furthermore, new technologies such as wireless Internet, knowledge visualization software, and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.

How does vision of the future and perceptions of reality change? Or, more importantly, how do breakthroughs really happen

and disorder can mask valid normative visions. What might be some of these new strategies for management of chaotic systems?

In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors.

and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.

However, merely drawing the attention of decision-makers is not sufficient for transforming vaguely expressed visions into concrete actions.

as well as new networks and visions amongst stakeholders. Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process,

Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.13 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs, Y. Hoogeveen, Your vision or my model?

The context of legitimization of the visions of‘amelioration'of a situation is a cognitive process

Detailing in brief, in this visualization an innovation traverses a complex mosaic of arenas of innovation and selection which are affected by broader aspects.

The creation of visions of possible futures in Constructive TA is based on analysis rather than brainstorming.

This was one vision of the future proposed by a number of codes of conduct tabled in the December 2007 EU meeting.

and actor-centric scenarios revealing the visions carried by various actors 34. Co-evolutionary scenarios make a modest,

Three Visions of Public Engagement, CSI WORKING PAPERS SERIES Number 11,2008. 33 D. K. R. Robinson.

4) to create positiiv external economies through the exchange of information, knowledge and vision; and (5) to facilitate the formation of markets (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001.

and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 923 Foresight and strategy focus on competencies and visions for defining future development;

1) Development of vision papers;(2) Definition of strategic areas; and (3) Elaboration of the communication format.

were asked to write papers about their vision of developments in their research areas, to be used as input to the strategy process.

The vision papers were to cover all areas of science and technology research. The authors came primarily from public research institutiions and also from industry.

Approximately 45 vision papers were received, which turned out to be of varying quality, length and structure. All papers reflected on scientific opportunities,

Some of the vision papers took in views from other experts in the field, and some even had several co-authors.

and discussed the different areas of research in science and technology, building on, among other things, the vision papers.

the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.

-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own

particularly of the seeming lack of vision in the proposals and an apparent weakness in reflecting economic and societal needs.

owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level

first, the already-mentioned lack of vision of the role of S&t in Luxembourg's development meant that some of the criteria were used rather blindly.

Some particiipant particularly those who were already critical of the performance of the public research centres believed that the exercise was flawed by relying so heavily upon the ideas and visions of existing researchers.

This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.

3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,

(knowledge network) Intermediate Articulation of joint visions of the future, establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas

and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.

As part of the process a jointly developed view of the main future objectives, challenges and key areas of action was agreed upon, combining elements of a joint vision.

The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen a a Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway Published online:

The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 971-986, DOI:

The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation

Drawing on fieldwork studies of a Norwegian municipal vision project conducted in 2006 it is shown how a specific image of young people was constructed

To underline the importance of participation in the vision-building project, the project leadership drew upon a specific image of young people as stakeholders in municipal development.

This specific case of municipal visioning illustrates how an image of young people was created in order to endow them with stakeholder characteristics that fit the objectives of the vision project.

The present case of a Norwegian municipal vision project points to the often implicitly assumed shared understanding of who young people are

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)( 2005 7)‘ a vision is imagined an representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired future'.

or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals'(Cornish 2004,300).

Visions as desired images of the future can be the result of a range of different foresight processes;

as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.

'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context. As pointed out by Shipley et al.

Requested vision: a desired future picture of Lundal The municipality of Lundal10 is situated closely to the Norwegian capital of Oslo and one of the richest municipalities in Norway.

‘All pupils and students in secondary schools and colleges should be invited to participate in a vision project organised by the municipality to create a desired picture of their community in 2020'.

The resulting visions were planned to be revised part of the municipal long-term plan regarding social development of the community (2006 2020.

The objective was to produce a vision of Lundal which was situated clearly within the realm of the possible and desired.

which led straight to the desired future vision, a narrow frame with a picture entitled‘Lundal'.

indicating that without a clear vision of the future long-term planning would only lead to chaos and a waste of time and resources.

The participation of the young people was part of the vision project and their contributions were considered important for how this future picture should be developed.

The project proposal written by the municipal administrative leadership underlined the powerful position of the political representatives in the vision project:

The social part of the municipality plan is characterised by long-term planning including a broad social approach and substantiation of those visions and goals

In order to obtain operative power the visions and goals should be anchored in/embedded on all levels of the municipality plan. 11

Thus the resulting visions were defined already as those desired by the political leadership of the municipality of Lundal.

977 the interests of the political representatives, both as contributors to the future pictures and as the ultimate recipients of a vision proposal:

and supplied with suggestions from other actors and where the politicians would like to be represented before the head of administration writes a proposal for visions and goals

i e. their contributions to the vision project. This paper argues that constructing a specific image of young people as stakeholders points towards a dilemma of inclusive foresight that cannot be rectified by specific management and process principles.

It arises when social stakeholders are made participants in a foresight process aiming at producing one desired vision of the future.

Social-economic, cognitive and political stakeholder image construction The initial justification for involving young people in the vision project

Rainer Ehrt used by the vision project leader to underline the lack of capitalist interests in young people's ideas about the future.

They suspected that visions taking their starting point in the young people's present situationwould result in enumerations of their daily needs

The most desired future pictures should lead to one collective vision. The project group suggested design depicted in Figure 3. The young students'ideas would

which would lead to a desired vision of Lundal. Nevertheless, they were undergoing a systematic revision process conducted by the project leader

'16 Result and outcome of the vision project According to the municipality's official project report, nine out of 20 secondary schools and colleges participated, with a reported outcome of 300 different ideas.

979 Figure 3. The design of the municipal vision project according to the project group, February 2006. schools systematically and created three future pictures,

and warned about the possible alienating effects such visions could have on social groups already living on the fringes of society.

The project leader commented on these aspects at the end of the vision project: I cannot claim that there have been many revolutionary ideas.

it is difficult to imagine deeper analyses of possible visions. Therefore we rather call it future pictures,

the resulting visions were included not into the long-term municipality plan. Instead, the politicians suggested that the future pictures should be used by the young people's community council (YPCC.

The municipal leadership suggested that the YPCC could use these future pictures as a basis for their own visions, values and goals.

The vision project organiser later explained in an interview that there were several reasons why the politicians refused to discuss

or agree Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 980 S. Jenssen on a desired vision, for instance upcoming municipal elections.

from authority to authenticity This specific case of a municipal vision project is not about the involvement of authoritative experts in foresight.

'18 In the case of the Lundal vision project, long-term social planningwas intended to be influenced by young people between 14 and 19 years of age.

The participation of young people as stakeholders in the vision project is an example of a wider legitimation movement that does not base stakeholder participation on authority but on authenticity (Brown and Michael 2002.

This was also the original intention expressed by the municipal leadership to explain why the young people were asked to participate in this vision project.

As I have tried to show in my presentation of Lundal's vision project, an additional stakeholder and participant construction by the project leaders was needed to ensure a desired outcome of the project.

According to vision project members participating in school lessons at one college in Lundal, at least the older among this age group reflected upon

when organisations intend to create one desired vision of the future. The case discussed here illustrates Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 982 S. Jenssen that power in such processes is both hierarchical and relational, yet‘not simply a relationship between partners, individual or collective;

which an expert academic‘produces its vision of the future or of alternative futures'.'Apart from that, many methods, also forecasting methods can be included.

For more insight into scenarios and visions work, see Van Notten (2005) and Gertler and Wolfe (2004.

which community benefit organisations and individuals build ongoinng permanent relationships for the purpose of applying a collective vision for the benefit of a community (definition from wikipedia. org).

The informants involved in the visions project requested to keep their municipality's identity unrevealed.

Power point presentation employed by the vision project leader, March 2006 italics added. 13. Invitation sent by Lundal's head of schools to all secondary schools and colleges,

Interview with vision project leader, April 2006. All interviews were conducted in confidentiality, and the names of interviewees are withheld by mutual agreement. 16.

Interview with vision project leader April 2006.17. Interview with vision project leader, June 2006.18. In this respect, foresight practises

and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.

Municipal visions: reflexive futures between paradigm and practice. Futures the journal of policy, planning and futures studies.

Vision and visioning: what do these terms really mean a taxonomy of the terms vision,

visioning, envision, visualize and visionary as used in planning literature over the last ten years.

The Quest for Knowledge Visualization, Springer, London, 2003.13 R. M. Shiffrin, K. Borner, Mapping knowledge domains, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 (Suppl. 1)( 2004

and coalitions that may reflect rivalling visions or even incompatible perspectives on the future (Könnölä,

Basic conceptions and visions of the regional foresight system in Finland. Foresight 4, no. 6: 34 45.

engaging relevant stakeholders and creating common visions that move into action. Among FTA TOOLS foresight is posited as the most suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.

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