Vision

Alternative vision (6)
Collective vision (6)
Desired vision (10)
Different vision (7)
Guiding vision (7)
Long-term vision (20)
Shared vision (28)
Vision (743)
Vision papers (7)
Vision project (26)

Synopsis: Vision: Vision:

visions and techniques will challenge current evaluation processes and ideas. Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders

and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.

This coherence is facilitated, for instance, by shared problem perceptions and visions. But, as we will argue in the next section,

according to visions of sustainable development, developed in a participatory foresight process. We, therefore, see adaptive planning as a way to overcome this lack of realism in much foresight work

Adaptive with respect to the need for making foresight an iterative monitoring and learning process to adjust visions

A possible starting point is therefore a debate on visions related to the focal issue of the exercise.

The visions and objectives are also an important input to Phases 5 and 6. 3. 2. 6. Phase 5:

Principles and general vision by countries), Econ. Ind. 341 (2001) 107 118.4 A. Tübke, K. Ducatel, J. P. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello, Strategic policy intelligence:

Within the ERA NETS, the general objectives of an embedded foresight process can be defined as i) vision-building for clarifying shared interests and joint benefits of international collaboration,

Internet-based group-support systems, facilitated workshops, RPM Screening) were employed to foster vision-building, networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.

Vision-building: Although the consultation process focused on thematic content (rather than regulatory, institutional, organizational and cultural differences),

and standardisation within formal standards development organisations for the implementation of these visions. Table 2 presents the assessment of the 21 telecommunication-related technologies expected to diffuse mostly within the next ten years.

these assessments are functioning if not always characterised by breadth of focus (a broader view of the field) and depth of vision (i e. possible applications in the long term.

lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis The vision of performing laboratory experiments at a micro or even nanoscale was posed first by Terry 50 who linked the idea of integrated microelectronics to the notion of integrated

and stimulate a proliferation of research projects towards the vision of TAS. In the mid 1990s other scientific communities (synthetic chemists;

Fig. 1. Phases of materialization of the vision of lab-on-a-chip. Fig. 2. Broader innovation issues of the transition from research lab to company in the single cell analysis innovation chain. 524 D. K. R. Robinson,

The visions of lab-on-a-chip devices still remain a promise just out of reach. With many start-ups and SMES focusing on individual components related to the six functions,

The existing technologies and the visions we have mapped here refer to results, or visions, of actors involved in the innovation process.

Actors can and do link up with application areas such as those mapped in the top section of the Figure.

However, it is only the aggregate effect of actors linking up with visions of application,

Vision Assessment of Molecular Machines, J. Scientometrics 70 (3)( 2007. 42 U. Meyer, C. Schubert, Die Konstitution technologischer Pfade.

Intermediate impacts included the development of visions of the future; recommendations and options for action;

However, it can work in cases of diminishing rivalry or the pursuit of a common vision.

As a rule, the more the expertise/visions/interest of contributors become part of the programme,

A set of‘cascading'visions are devised to demonstrate the close links between three levels. First, alternative futures are developed for the EU by considering (i) the overall rationale of EU policies;

as well as distinct viewpoints are indispensable for building policy-relevant visions. The proposed three-level structure of futures or‘cascading'visions offers several advantages for policy-makers at various Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

(2008) 558 582 E-mail address: havasatt@econ. core. hu. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:

it is of crucial importance to underpin the proposed new round of reforms by thorough and systematic prospective analyses, e g. by developing‘futures'(‘visions'or‘scenarios').

while other documents only discuss a single vision, i e. do not consider alternative futures; a striking example of that approach is the recent EU Green Paper on the European research area 3. Georghiou

taking into account the relevant ERIA visions. In other words, this third level, itself, is consisted of a set of futures.

'but the main purpose of this paper to experiment with the proposed 3-level structure for building futures, rather than to offer fully fledged visions, covering all aspects.

etc. 8 Several ERA visions have been devised by putting governance issues into the centre, see e g. 18 20 the ones developed in this paper follow a different logic. 9 The term‘universities'is used as shorthand for all sorts of higher education organisations. 10 The first attempt to do so can be found in a previous

let alone among different types of them. 568 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 4. Futures for universities Vision-building requires an intense dialogue among stakeholders for two reasons:(

and thus first visions are devised on the EU as a whole. Then the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) is taken into account as a‘mezzo level'system.

Finally, the most important trends and drivers are addressed at the level of universities. 25 These futures (visions

These visions offer a description of future states in 2020 2025 rather than fully fledged or path scenarios

Furtherrmore it is beyond the scope of this paper to enter into a detailed consideration of the degree of probability of specific visions.

p. 1. In brief, visions should highlight the role of policy in realising the desired and feasible future. 25 Note that the national

The major underlying assumptions for building visions for EU universities should be spelt out before addressing the more detailed issues,

and (ii) its overall performance compared to the other Triad regions (Table 1). 29 None of the five visions presented in Table 1 can be dismissed on logical grounds,

but only subjective judgements could Table 1 Visions for the EU EU vs. Triad Internal strategy Cohesion (societal issues) Competitiveness(‘multi-speed EU')Successful EU A) Double success:

Finland and Sweden points to the possibility of a‘reformed European socioeconomic model'46,47. b This vision requires an efficient co-ordination of a number of policies,

The vision itself, however, makes no assumption if this co-ordination is achieved via heavy-handed top-down mechanisms,

or not a‘federal EU'.(See also two visions of the EUROPOLIS project, coined Federal Europe,

EU visions: Double success vs. Successful multi-speed EU ERIA EU Double success Successful multi-speed EU Rationale for EU RTDI policies Double-track:

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 be made concerning the probability of these visions. In other words, we do not have any sound

reliable method to predict which of these visions is most likely to materialise. The actual relevance and use of them is to present stark choices in terms of strategies,

In that way, these visions can inform present-day decisions, and also show the possibilities to shape our future.

therefore, different types of ERIAS can be derived from the above five visions. 30 In practice, however, not Table 2 (continued) ERIA EU Double success Successful multi-speed EU Innovation systems, co-operation among key players a Intense communication among businesses, academia, policy-makers,

Moreover, devising 10 15 visions for the ERIA (2 3 ERIA visions times 5 EU visions) would introduce an unmanageable complexity into this exercise.

Thus, two cases have been selected to be considered when building ERIA visions: A) Double success and B) Successful multi-speed EU. What sort of ERIA would be needed to support an‘externally'successful, cohesive EU (Double success?

that is part of the Double success vision. 31 The alternative approach would favour using the EU funds exclusively

but the main features of the types of ERIA‘fitting'to the broad visions of Double success and Successful multi-speed EU are presented in Table 2. 4. 2. Futures states of universities

'As already mentioned, visions for universities are built on alternative futures for the EU and ERIA, that is, Double success and Successful multi-speed EU, respectively.

although not a trivial task to start this exercise by devising alternative futures (visions) on their broader socioeconomic context.

In other words, a set of‘cascading'visions have been developed to demonstrate the close links between these three levels.

considering the rows in the ERIA visions, e g. exploring the impacts of given polices on the mobility of researchers and students inside the EU or globally.

can be analysed by devising appropriate visions for these broader systems;(ii) the observed diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be reflected by identifying appropriate ideal types (which,

Contested Visions of Higher education in Society. A. Smith and F. Webster eds. Open University Press, Buckingham;

A visualization of the resultant hierarchical random graph is shown below in Fig. 5. Table 1 Comparative analysis of network characteristics.

However, it had been formulated as a vague vision that resulted mainly from a technical analysis of the current infrastructure components (unresolved problems in water quality

Policy 13 (3)( 2006) 254 264.41 Vision 2030 Consortium, Vision 2030 Final Report. An Investigation into the Long-term challenges and Opportunities for the UK's Strategic Highway Network, Highway Agency for England, London, 2003.42 Office of Science and Technology, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, Foresight Directorate

typically reported as scenarios, visions, roadmaps and action recommendations. The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years,

In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.

and generating rivalling visions. Fixed vs. autonomous management o Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the exercise at the outset and control the process,

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

Furthermore, new technologies such as wireless Internet, knowledge visualization software, and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.

How does vision of the future and perceptions of reality change? Or, more importantly, how do breakthroughs really happen

and disorder can mask valid normative visions. What might be some of these new strategies for management of chaotic systems?

In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors.

and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.

However, merely drawing the attention of decision-makers is not sufficient for transforming vaguely expressed visions into concrete actions.

as well as new networks and visions amongst stakeholders. Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process,

Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.13 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs, Y. Hoogeveen, Your vision or my model?

The context of legitimization of the visions of‘amelioration'of a situation is a cognitive process

Detailing in brief, in this visualization an innovation traverses a complex mosaic of arenas of innovation and selection which are affected by broader aspects.

The creation of visions of possible futures in Constructive TA is based on analysis rather than brainstorming.

This was one vision of the future proposed by a number of codes of conduct tabled in the December 2007 EU meeting.

and actor-centric scenarios revealing the visions carried by various actors 34. Co-evolutionary scenarios make a modest,

Three Visions of Public Engagement, CSI WORKING PAPERS SERIES Number 11,2008. 33 D. K. R. Robinson.

4) to create positiiv external economies through the exchange of information, knowledge and vision; and (5) to facilitate the formation of markets (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001.

and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 923 Foresight and strategy focus on competencies and visions for defining future development;

were asked to write papers about their vision of developments in their research areas, to be used as input to the strategy process.

particularly of the seeming lack of vision in the proposals and an apparent weakness in reflecting economic and societal needs.

owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level

first, the already-mentioned lack of vision of the role of S&t in Luxembourg's development meant that some of the criteria were used rather blindly.

Some particiipant particularly those who were already critical of the performance of the public research centres believed that the exercise was flawed by relying so heavily upon the ideas and visions of existing researchers.

This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.

3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,

(knowledge network) Intermediate Articulation of joint visions of the future, establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas

and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.

As part of the process a jointly developed view of the main future objectives, challenges and key areas of action was agreed upon, combining elements of a joint vision.

To underline the importance of participation in the vision-building project, the project leadership drew upon a specific image of young people as stakeholders in municipal development.

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)( 2005 7)‘ a vision is imagined an representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired future'.

or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals'(Cornish 2004,300).

Visions as desired images of the future can be the result of a range of different foresight processes;

'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context. As pointed out by Shipley et al.

Requested vision: a desired future picture of Lundal The municipality of Lundal10 is situated closely to the Norwegian capital of Oslo and one of the richest municipalities in Norway.

The resulting visions were planned to be revised part of the municipal long-term plan regarding social development of the community (2006 2020.

The objective was to produce a vision of Lundal which was situated clearly within the realm of the possible and desired.

which led straight to the desired future vision, a narrow frame with a picture entitled‘Lundal'.

indicating that without a clear vision of the future long-term planning would only lead to chaos and a waste of time and resources.

The social part of the municipality plan is characterised by long-term planning including a broad social approach and substantiation of those visions and goals

In order to obtain operative power the visions and goals should be anchored in/embedded on all levels of the municipality plan. 11

Thus the resulting visions were defined already as those desired by the political leadership of the municipality of Lundal.

977 the interests of the political representatives, both as contributors to the future pictures and as the ultimate recipients of a vision proposal:

and supplied with suggestions from other actors and where the politicians would like to be represented before the head of administration writes a proposal for visions and goals

They suspected that visions taking their starting point in the young people's present situationwould result in enumerations of their daily needs

and warned about the possible alienating effects such visions could have on social groups already living on the fringes of society.

it is difficult to imagine deeper analyses of possible visions. Therefore we rather call it future pictures,

the resulting visions were included not into the long-term municipality plan. Instead, the politicians suggested that the future pictures should be used by the young people's community council (YPCC.

The municipal leadership suggested that the YPCC could use these future pictures as a basis for their own visions, values and goals.

which an expert academic‘produces its vision of the future or of alternative futures'.'Apart from that, many methods, also forecasting methods can be included.

For more insight into scenarios and visions work, see Van Notten (2005) and Gertler and Wolfe (2004.

The informants involved in the visions project requested to keep their municipality's identity unrevealed.

Municipal visions: reflexive futures between paradigm and practice. Futures the journal of policy, planning and futures studies.

Vision and visioning: what do these terms really mean a taxonomy of the terms vision,

visioning, envision, visualize and visionary as used in planning literature over the last ten years.

The Quest for Knowledge Visualization, Springer, London, 2003.13 R. M. Shiffrin, K. Borner, Mapping knowledge domains, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 (Suppl. 1)( 2004

and coalitions that may reflect rivalling visions or even incompatible perspectives on the future (Könnölä,

Basic conceptions and visions of the regional foresight system in Finland. Foresight 4, no. 6: 34 45.

engaging relevant stakeholders and creating common visions that move into action. Among FTA TOOLS foresight is posited as the most suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.

Key Foresight concepts such as‘‘vision''that were used previously in a rather broad and all encompassing manner have been deconstructed

deals with the elaborating of the vision of the future of the system, in putting in place its instruments and regulations, its broad objectives and budget;

and create common visions into action 25, 27. Furthermore, Foresight processes are supposed to help designing new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.

and even the destruction of lock in conditions by engaging different stakeholders in the proactive generation of rivalling visions for competing coalitions based on different value networks with different architectures, configurations, features and standards 37,38.

networking, and vision-building objectives: each cell of the matrix shapes a specific framework for Foresight,

Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political

level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions

It has produced a 20-year vision and a short, -medium-and long-term Strategic research Agenda for Europe's plant sector setting out a consensus on the research needed to fulfil the vision.

This vision has de facto been considered by policy-makers at governmental and European level as the reference document for the orientation of research in this area.

Two other key elements are contributing to the future of this research field. 1) EU institutions have had a prominent legal role by delaying the introduction of GM crop in Europe.

On a closer look the needs for Foresight can be specified on the base of the field analysis. It seems unlikely that the existence of consensual visions focussing on GM research alone will be sufficient

and implement a European vision validated by policy makers and governments. It has produced a Strategic research Agenda (SRA) created through the concerted efforts of experts from industry, academia,

Even though there are a number of strong technological visions around many of them lack richness on the societal side.

Foresight oriented towards holistic visions building seems likely to provide relevant support here, which calls for operations in the orientation arena.

networking and vision building. The paper aimed to enhance the ability of Foresight to fulfil these functions through systematically taking into account (a) the specific characteristics of the research

An executive with the budget and vision to assess costs and longer-term benefits accurately is important to a fair trial of the process within a company.!

Scanning processes can serve as a form of peripheral vision (to avoid being blindsided by events outside one's industry),

and the use of procurement or regulation to stimulate innovation is dependent upon the formation of a common vision between the supply

10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.003 the planning and emergence of knowledge-based clusters is informed often by a vision;

Beyond this if we expand the vision to innovation policy the focus is very much upon using foresight methods to achieve alignment of the principal stakeholders around an agenda for the future.

expressed as a series of cascading visions 25. This implies a convergence with the broader structural exercises discussed above.

Breaking away from restricted and short-term vision and seeding new configurations is at the core of

i) vision-building for clarifying shared interests and joint benefits of international collaboration, (ii) networking for mobilizing the RTD communities in different countries

and of communicating these to suppliers brings to the fore the idea of using foresight to create a common vision as a framework in

''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision

and create common visions into action 2, 3. Furthermore, foresight processes can also become a pertinent design phase for the creation of new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.

and create common visions and action plans 2, 9. Furthermore, foresight processes can often be seen as a pertinent design phase for the creation of newvalue networks that are based on novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.

develop visions, defining the setting of priorities and have more accurate forecasts on the time-horizons of S&t developments. 2. 2. Chosen future perspectives:

and generating rivalling visions. Addressing both consensual and diverse future perspectives are crucial dimensions when dealing with sustainability, and security.

it is crucial to be able to develop also consensual visions and recommendations into action for policy and in more general decision-making processes. 2. 3. Chosen management approach:

Consensual National Technology roadmap (NTRM) in Korea has set up five complementary visions, two of which are related to sustainability

which we call Visions, Priorities, Agora and Innovations foresight. 3. 2. Visions foresight (consensual perspectives and informative outcomes) Visions foresight can be characterised as consensual,

informative processes that create understanding on common priorities, relevant collaborative networks and/or future actions.

and rivalling visions. This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making

hence this would suggest that foresight projects with open-ended diverse visions of the future are not common in these countries.

This is not surprising as one of the important foresight objectives are the priority-setting and common vision-building.

This allows addressing diverse perspectives and scenarios as well as common vision-building. However, positioning a project as informative

/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/and/or action recommendations Reports on desktop surveys Background reports for focused workshops Reports on the results of SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action Integrative reports

In more aspirational‘‘success scenario''workshops or vision workshops it is more common for breakout groups to examine what a desirable future would look like in detail within specified subdomains,

Developments in text mining, visualisation, and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.

and methods make sure that the visions of different stakeholders can be represented harmonised and in the final outcomes and products?

it allows for the construction of common visions and produces issue-specific knowledge through dialogue,

and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary

Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.

Findings FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building

Furthermore, FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building

Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore

Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to develop a vision of a system's emergent properties the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts. 2. All systems have component agents (taxies,

Foresight techniques need to enable a vision of changes in the essential profile of a system. 3. The interactions between the component parts of a complex system

Foresight techniques need to enable visions of phase-changed worlds. Foresight techniques must also accept the likely absence of any early warning signals. 4. Extreme sensitivity to initial conditions.

B Enable a vision of a system's emergent properties. B Embrace emergence rather than planning and forecasting.

and develop a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts.

and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome, and policy options for that final outcome, rather than on a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the components,

and how that can be harnessed. Some writers Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), have considered how complexity-based foresight can be applied to policy making.

Promoting variation can also contribute to embracing emergence and to enabling visions of phase change situations.

and determine a vision Test policy options Monitor policy Source: Adapted from Bhimji (2009) PAGE 300 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 bring the benefits of realising that there are more variations than originally thought of

and determine visions Test policy options Monitor policy 1. Understand the varied expertise and resources are required to generate different visions 1. Create

Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.

< Back - Next >

Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011