Synopsis: Vision: Vision:

and visions on the ways to achieve the desired low-emissions future. The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration

regarding to climate change mitigation as well as a variety of futures visions of sustainable Finland. This material was used as building blocks for the next phase of the exercise,

which made the visualisation of the atomic region more and more accessible for scientists. One of the first landmarks is the Nobel prize discovery of a new carbon molecule containing sixty carbon atoms (C60) in the shape of a ball in 1985 (also called a bucky ball) 15.

in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners

Nevertheless, nowadays long-range forecasts and visions do not seem to attract the attention of contemporary urban planners.

The formulation of visions and the display of technocratic predictions has been rendered obsolete by the need for consensus and compromise.

and formulate long-term development visions makes strategic planning a perfect client for futures studies. Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,

future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.

and project long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. 2. Vision. Foresight elaborates a guiding strategic vision,

which shares a sense of social commitment about a certain issue. 3. Action. Foresight develops and implements strategic visions through detailed action plans,

which enable current actions to tackle the future successfully. Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.

territorial foresight gradually builds up an integrated vision of the possible future through participation methods. Foresight is thus complementary to the established planning processes

detailed outputs (visions or scenarios) that can be used as inputs for quantitative tools. With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.

The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.

Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.

Once the visions are formulated, the functional implications for the territorial system are determined, which may display territorial elements,

and develop visions of alternative futures for a transition towards a more sustainable model. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 335 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

which it later designed a number of alternatives visions of Law in 2030. This project, most welcome for its originality

This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,

as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future, creating their own narratives and visualisations of forthcoming developments.

Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law. This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind,

As such, the scenarios used in these few cases constituted descriptive visions of techno-futures, illustrations

but instead about what the world will look like after the implementation of certain emerging and future technologies (such as the vision of Ambient Intelligence or the prospect of human enhancement).

which legal experts were consulted for their visions of the future of Law in their respective areas.

visualisation and participation platform, called the Living Earth Platform, composed of three levels: the techno-socioeconomic‘‘flight simulator''(also termed as‘‘Living Earth Simulator'')a‘‘Planetary Nervous system,

using the latter as enablers of their vision of the future. This modus operandi goes by the name of backcasting

The predictive-policing vision moves law enforcement from focusing on what happened to focusing on what will happen

and visions will be very much the same as today's''(Rader and Porter, 2008). Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.

translating it into compelling narratives, stories and visions. Second, scenarios constitute channels through which such visions and narratives are communicated to larger audiences.

As part of the storytelling endeavor that has accompanied and shaped humanity throughout its entire history (from mythological oral tales to current technologically-intermediated means of communication),

The alternative set of visions provided by scenario planning can be used to formulate and simulate different data-models of the future world.

and their performance by contrasting their initial (and desirable) visions of the future with the one effectively accomplished;

laws should ideally establish their vision of desired future, being confronted later on and evaluated according to the future effectively accomplished.

and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced

in order to attain the passing of a given law. The problem we here face is the one of having foresight used as a lobbying instrument

PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,

while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product

which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.

Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.

or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers. The roadmapping process provides a way to identify,

There is a growing need to connect current nanotechnology research activities with visions of applications as well as to structure this field of investigation.

and visions and to get feedback about them. The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions

However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.

linking research activities with visions of products and applications and supporting more reliable judgements on the realism of or hurdles for innovations discussed.

vision-building and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation; shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee.

while simultaneously following their vision of the tenets of sustainable development? Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate

The idea of an eye presupposes vision. Yet, the evolution has produced a large variety of similar structures for eyes again and again, directing development towards practically useful directions (Mead 1907.

After it evolves to a point where it becomes useful for vision, a newdomain of action emerges.

This domain is linked with the capability to make distinctions based on vision. At the same point, a‘world of vision'is created,

simultaneously with the functional organ that we now can call‘the eye'.'At this point, we can also start to tell a story about the‘proto-eye

The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.

and a world of vision emerges. This transition then opens the third act, where a new direction for development is possible

and where vision can be improved. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 746

In the creative evolution of the eye, before theworld of vision emerges and ontological expansion occurs,

The transitory moment when a proto-eye gains new meaning as an organ of vision is a creative moment

In a world where there is no vision, there cannot be weak signals of vision.‘‘Weak signals',‘early warnings,

'and‘seeds of future'thus emerge in retrospective accounts that shape history into prototypical narrative structures.‘

Not verifiable experimentally in the scientific mode Highly uncertain and complex, particularly relating to the existence of causal relationships Able to create the basis for visions of the future based on common ground among participants Action oriented in terms of identifying threats,

repertoire of visions and future assessments and how this both enhances and limits the efficacy of foresight.

and create common visions into action. Generally, foresight is distinguished according to method, objectives and setting. Various typologies of methods are available,

A third objective of foresight is to build a consensual vision of the future in order to harmonise strategies of the different stakeholders.

Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political

level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions

expectations, visions already Abound in general, the social sciences emphasise that human activities are oriented intrinsically towards the future.

when the general vision is filled in with concrete projects contestations will arise. Their example is the Clean Urban Transportation Europe project in the UK where industrial partners like Daimler-chrysler and BP,

Overarching vague visions that initiate and coordinate projects may run into trouble as soon they become more specific. 4. Lessons for foresight Foresight concerns a diverse set of policy exercises with different methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.

priority-setting, networking and building visions. As indicated below, the lessons often resonate with what foresight practitioners have discovered.

and outcomes become part of innovation races Networking Stakeholder participation tend to reproduce repertoires The newly established networks will start to promote the vision Participants may press their version of the future Building visions Foresight outcomes will not Be built very original visions may have unintended consequences

Visions may become self-fulfiling generating ideas on alternatives. Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo (2007,610), for instance, argue that‘..

The same risks loom for the objectives of networking and vision building: they may reproduce images

The concern about the general tendency to favour established parties and visions, at the expense of better alternatives, also holds for networking.

Visions of technology: Social and institutional factors shaping the development of new technologies. Newyork: St martin's Press.

Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 361 74.

Vision assessment: Shaping technology in 21st century society. Towards a repertoire for technology assessment. Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Groenveld, P. 1997.

Integrating CTA with vision assessment. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 3: 334 55. Rosenberg, N. 1982.

Technological visions. The hopes and fears that shape new technologies. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press. Sung, J. J,

to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,

Philips Design and Philips Research have developed jointly the‘Ambient Intelligence'vision, which means an‘intelligent home environment'that utilises a wide range of interconnected

By following this vision, Philips has built its core technological competencies around displays, connectivity, and storage and started to develop and to experiment with innovative product concepts in all its business divisions.

Peripheral vision. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Dill, W. R. 1958. Environment as an influence on managerial autonomy.

The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.

in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability. Keywords: network vision; management framework and path to sustainable development;

dialogue and interaction; disruptive and transformative change; FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation

which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:

so that companies can effectively follow their (network) vision of sustainable development. Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.

or‘internalise'the underlying principles into their vision so that they can be translated further into their core business operations.

review and report A Sustain the business Interpretation Critical analysis by leadership Embedding Leadership and vision Source:

the actions or behaviours needed to promote the translation of the principles embedded in the vision into broad activities that,

shaped by a firm's individual context and culture, will offer different and clear possibilities to implement the organisation's (network) vision of sustainable development.

and implement the designed plan to meet this vision, as well as monitoring the business and its stakeholders'performance.

and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.

The accomplishment of such a vision depends on how each firm and its network of relationships interact across the network to align value-creating activities.

since it is based on a vision that characterises the universe as a nonlinear dynamic system, unpredictable,

3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development

enabling the design of the necessary actions to achieve the desirable future (how things ought to be done according to the business's and its networks'vision).

and its networks'progress towards the common vision of sustainable development. The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are

and strategy to a long-term common vision of where an organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.

The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.

These take into consideration the diversity of views across the network and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.

such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.

and desirable futures and articulation of visions and expectations needed to reach a common goal and an adaptive path to follow,

which are critical to achieve a common vision of sustainable development as well as to mobilise and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions

in which each and every node of the network becomes an embedded participant that actively shapes the path to a common vision of sustainability Source:

Equally, Al Haig's dictum that‘vision without discipline is daydream'(Haig 1984) is necessary to prevent the outcomes of foresight becoming too expansive.

In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.

which a company will be seeking to achieve its (network) vision of sustainable development in uninterrrupte cycles of improvement.

, common vision Competencies-Information paper processing and fast accountability-No individual, team or organisational learning-Information general support,

this enables change towards a common vision using tools which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.

joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members including truly novel aspects of how the future might evolve.

Simultaneously, individual firms actively shape the future as an embedded network participant promoting a common vision within it

and mobilising and coordinating the necessary resources towards achieving such a vision. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,

and reviewing the vision of sustainability Strategy Establish leadership commitment; and strategic architecture definition and review Partnerships Identify

alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;

legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business

and the network vision for sustainability (as it ought to be) in order to keep the firm on track of its designated vision Monitor the business Collecting

and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,

and changes and improvements possible Partnerships Partnerships selection; building; and leveraging Motivation Motivational channels and processes selection;

performance reporting Sustain the business Achieve the identified vision of sustainability and giving subsidies for the creation of a new vision Verify

if the firm achieved its objectives along the network and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin

this would also enable the development of a common base of knowledge and sustainability vision,

and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed

NS GSPSR NS GSPSR GSPSR KCGCB GSPSR KCGCB SIGMA KCGCB SIGMA SRI SIGMA SRI SRI Vision Actions Behaviours Proposed management

Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,

Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy

The first step was to create Sandia-specific visualizations of the IAS. The purpose of these visualizations was to identify past and present technological competencies

and overlaps of competencies, within the IAS. Although IA experts are expected to be versed very in the competencies of their own IAS,

Benchmarking was accomplished by comparing the visualizations with the mental models of IA leads experts who have used,

Time was built into the plan to iterate the visualizations if large differences were found between them and the leaders'mental models of their areas.

K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1123 IA leads were designed to not only benchmark the visualizations,

After completion of the benchmarking activity with Sandia-specific visualizations a second set of visualizations was created to include data on all U s. Department of energy (DOE)- funded R&d activities related to the IAS.

The purpose of this set of visualizations, hereafter referred to as bdoe LDRD, Q was to place Sandia's IA activities within a broader context,

thus allowing for the identification of new opportunities by semantic association with activities outside Sandia.

These visualizations were presented also to IA leaders. Copies of the data, visuals, and navigation tools were provided also to IA leaders to allow them to explore the data independently. 3. Process,

data, and tools Two different types of visualizations, each designed to provide different types of information,

a visualization tool that enables interactive navigation and query of an abstract information space. Link analysis maps were generated using Clearresearch,

Both types of visualizations, the landscapes and the link analyses, were used for both the Sandiaspeccifi and DOE LDRD analyses,

for our analyses one for the Sandiaspeccifi visualizations and one for the DOE LDRD visualizations.

The data for the Sandia-specific visualizations consisted of 1209 records from the five IAS

To create the DOE LDRD visualizations, an additional 4300 LDRD records from the entire U s. DOE complex (e g.,

The ordination places similar documents close to each other on the graph. 3. 4. Visualization using Vxinsight After calculating coordinates,

and analysis. Vxinsight is a tool that allows visualization and navigation of an abstract information space,

and potential future directions. 4. 2. Link analysis of IAS The analyses of the visualizations in Section 4. 1 tend to strongly convey the patterns

K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1129 extract the hidden relationships within the landscape visualization

Fig. 5 is an example of the link analysis visualizations that were created and shared with the IA leads.

The actual visualizations reviewed by the leads were often more detailed, using lower-linking thresholds.

Fig. 5 is a visualization of the current relationships, which seems to be consistent with the ideal state mentioned above.

The visualization contained very detailed (and thus proprietary) information, and is shown not here. The result of the visualization pointed to specific technological efforts within an IA that could be combined to create a larger effort that could in turn attract future funding outside of the LDRD program.

In addition, the IA lead was able to identify, compare, and leverage objective technological strengths to attract new external customers. 4. 3. Landscape mapping of DOE LDRD A map of the DOE LDRD data set was created using the same technique described previously

It is worth noting that the visualizations themselves do not generate new ideas. Rather it is the analyst

or IA lead interacting with the visualizations that formulates questions and new ideas based on the information and patterns seen there.

The link analysis visualization for the entire DOE complex is represented in Fig. 8 . Although there are several laboratories in the original analysis,

and technologies that have weaker links than in the original visualization. Drilling down into a technology is a powerful analysis technique,

The result was a visualization that placed the IA in the middle of the link map with a minimum of 50 nodes identifying direct and indirect Fig. 8. Clearforest link analysis map of specific technology linkages between different laboratories within the U s

Insights gained from the novel application of visualization tools, coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,

and join the best of those to our visualizations to answer questions related to return on investment 11.

Vis. 2001 (2001) 23 30.5 K. W. Boyack, B. N. Wylie, G. S. Davidson, Domain visualization using Vxinsight for science and technology management, J. Am.

its visual format enables the transparent formulation of visions with explicit linkages across the temporal spectrum (present, medium term,

which produces a hermetic chart of the future with a sealed vision. Therefore, the vision should be understood as temporarily locked target that is systematically verified

and reformulated, either based on an organisation's strategy clock or when a critical need, such as a change in the environment, emerges.

Third, the roadmapping process enables the alignment of a common vision, the knowledge spaces, and temporal spans.

and short-to medium-term strategies to realise this vision. Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping.

Roadmapping can be considdere as a meta-level visualisation of an organisational strategy that could utilise the inputs from Delphi or scenario exercises,

The first way is the building of a common vision. Basically, roadmapping is a collaborative long-range strategy process.

This visualisation underlines a crucial point: all three temporal scales are based on interpretation that is, the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past

Building a technological vision Scoping new enabling technologies or new products Identifying temporal sequences Identifying singular elements,

and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel

transparency Communicating strategic aims Building synthesising vision (vertical and horizontal) Visionary strategising Aligning roadmap knowledge Visionary Exploration of futures on different scales of certainty Systemic

openness towards future possibilities Drafting novel concepts Capacities for resilience Identifying wild cards Focusses primarily on vision building:

BAU vision, disruptive visions, and improbable events Note: BAU, business as usual. macro-scale societal phenomena (drivers and megatrends.

R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision

It built a vision of the future and fostered action steps to reach that vision.

The project knowledge in the technology space was constructed by building explicit technology visions, such as a novel way to characterise building services,

especially through ICT applications Capacities for the renewal of technological basis internally at VTT Technology visions were built,

market-based visions were built on the basis of current technology trajectories and also by tracking disruptive alternatives Markets for adoption of novel solutions, e g. integrated ICT Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets,

e g. spread the vision of technological possibilities for rather conservative markets in building and construction Novel market features and actors were identified,

Furthermore, the project aimed to fortify VTT's brand as a service research organisation by stating the VTT state-of-the-art and vision for the future.

The aim of the roadmapping process was first to form a vision to which the participants could commit,

and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,

across disciplines and organisational functions VTT's vision of service was built on the basis of past development paths, current service trends,

towards integrated service packages Visionary Forming a new kind of service-oriented culture in a rather conservative field Fostering structural adaptabiliit for the adoption of new kinds of practices Building explicit visions in roadmap themes:(

and to produce a set of socio-technical ICT application visions. The fourth phase, the roadmapping workshop, created roadmaps on selected socio-technical visions.

In the final research phase, the action workshop, a set of actions to be taken by the key players in the Nordic countries was depicted.

for example, in the form of application visions and exploratory socio-technical roadmaps. The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.

plausible, disruptive, alternative, unlikely Assessing the explorative application visions in the context of four scenarios Creation of scenario-based visionary socio-technical roadmaps on several application visions

It provided an assessment of explorative visions in the context of four scenarios and created scenario-based visionary sociotechhnica roadmaps.

A vision of the construction machinery sector and future roadmap 2012 2020. VTT Asiakasraportti VTT-CR-00459-12.

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