Such visualisation of a pathway can play a central role in exploring innovation routes for a potentially disruptive NEST,
Figure 7 provides a stimulating visualisation of potential innovattio pathways, but it also obviously simplifies complex interactions
They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.
PAGE 26 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 5. 2 Strategic dialogue to generate a joint vision for forward-looking projects Another strategic dialogue was conducted for a so-called‘‘Forward-looking Project''in the framework
The final, seventh, step of the Strategic dialogue resulted in a pragmatic vision for a‘‘CO2-neutral,
elements for a coherent vision were created in the workshop by the experts. A first draft of the vision created from the workshop results was refined in a number of feedback loops.
The vision is now a key element for communicating the Forward-looking Project in the media
and for involving the public (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, 2010b). 5. 3 Strategic dialogue to develop a model for public private partnerships A third example of a successful strategic dialogue was the definition of a novel type of innovation cluster across academia and industry implemented as public private partnerships.
They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.
Saritas, O.,Taymaz, E. and Tumer, T. 2007),‘Vision 2023: Turkey's national technology foresight program:
as described in the technology vision of a Delphi topic, to the present or near future technological trajectory.
Vision-building and consensus-building for considering and inducing guided processes of transformation. Shaping and defining dialogues on transformations
create ownership of joint visions; and thusmobilise actors to take actions in order to realise the joint visions
(or at least take steps in that direction). By doing so, uncertainty can also be reduced, and that is a major benefit for decision-makers, be they directors of research institutes, deans and rectors of universities, business people, or policy-makers.
In the USA, the approach entails mainly integrated vision-building and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning.
Visualisation of quantitative data 36 can be a useful way of bringing these data to a workshop or another qualitative process.
and the sharing of perspectives across the network is supported by a set of perspective visualisation tools.
Visualisation techniques and strategic design: During the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA, the use of images and visualisation techniques was suggested as a tool,
both for better explaining (quantitative and qualitative) methodologies adopted and for results obtained. A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
It explores and visualises‘the architecture of problems 'and can offer a wider framework in which quantitative
Unavoidably, policy-makers and stakeholders will assign a higher plausibility to scenarios that somehow resonate with their own visions.
He has been involved in a diversity of European-wide research projects (the most recent one on Visions for the European research area)
and computer vision. It has been shown that NN has consistently high performance. It involves a training set and a test set.
The effective analysis, visualization, and communication of EMA insights are thus of crucial importance for its successful real world application.
For example, Hamel and Prahalad 17 emphasize that strategy should draw up consistent visions of the future.
A science or technology roadmap is like a highway roadmap that describes how one might proceed from a starting point to a final destination expressed as a vision.
Moreover, while participatory scenario-making provides visions for multiple futures, a roadmap only operates with one vision.
Linking scenarios with technology roadmapping initiates an exploratory and creative phase to identify and understand uncertainties.
and establishing a common vision among the innovation stakeholders as a boundary framework before moving into technology roadmapping 70.4.2.2.
It is accepted widely that a vision about the future is an essential element of a strategy 16,17.
translating vision into action. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at www. givaudan. com. 10.
Vision 2050: The new agenda for business. WBCSD (2010) Vision 2050: The new agenda for business.
World Business Council for Sustainable development, Washington. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://www. wbcsd. org/web/vision2050. htm. 441 P. De Smedt et al./
Chang. 74 (2007) 413 432.41 M. S. Jørgensen, Visions and visioning in foresight activities, in: K. Borch, S m. Dingli, M. S. Jorgensen (Eds.
, Visions for a sustainable Europe, Futures 32 (2000) 809 831.55 R. Phaal, C. Farrukh, D. Probert, T-plan.
since the U s. National science and Technology Council published its first vision for nanotechnology research and development and Germany established its public funding program.
Visions, roadmaps, and visionary policy documents have been a main source for analyzing the social and political dimensions of nanotechnology in the broad range of STS,
Early and radical visions that shaped the field in the late 1980s were published by individual thinkers 17,18.
and vision building which impact the complex interplay of factors governing innovation trajectories 27.1 http://www. iso. org/iso/iso technical committee. html?
Usually, two US visions are seen as the starting point of nanotechnology as an emerging technology. The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,
was the first. Inhis book Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology 17, Drexler developed far reaching new ideas of the possibilities and risks of technologies on the nanoscale.
Drexler became a key figure for this new technological vision and his ideas became a disputed reference point in the debate around nanotechnology in the late 1980s and the 1990s.
35,36. 3 The second vision was presented to the broad public in 2000 by the US National Nanotechnology Initiative called Nanotechnology Shaping the World Atom by Atom. 22 3. 1
. Integrated vision-building and governance network-building in the US At the end of the 1990s, the US science policy community established an organizational structure around nanotechnologies
and developed a vision for nanotechnology R&d. This started in 1998 when the National science and Technology Council (NSTC), the principal executive body responsible for coordinating science and technology policy,
which included a Vision for Nanotechnology research and Development in The next Decade 1. Vision building at this stage was accompanied by early cooperation and coordination between and among agencies and departments of the federal government.
In their work within the IWGN, the participating agencies and departments stated their major interests in nanotechnology,
and industry were involved in developing the vision. Nearly all of the experts from academia came from the natural sciences and engineering.
The small section of the IWGN workshop report on the social impact of nanotechnology contains a vision on the future
The report outlined the vision that nanotechnology will lead to the next industrial revolution 1. It recommended a national nanotechnology initiative
the technology assessment activities and the vision building process served to link disperse organizations and research fields
In 2010, a follow-up report on the vision report of 1999, entitled Nanotechnology research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020 3 combined retrospective and future-oriented analysis documenting developments in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2010
and presented a vision for progress in nanotechnology from 2010 to 2020 3. Besides redefining the R&d goals for nanoscale science and engineering integration,
the presented vision for 2020 was conducted by involving a wider range of experts and stakeholders to generate broader knowledge than in 1999.
In comparison with the first vision generated prior to the establishment of the NNI in 1999/2000,
and became a part of the vision for 2020. Both concepts rely on experiences derived from participatory activities.
The vision report states that during the next decade application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
develop visions, build up policy networks, as well as shape and prepare funding programs. FTA in the governance of nanotechnology started with forecasting activities
The vision-building process of 2010 served as an instrument to pool and coordinate FTA ACTIVITIES among government departments, agencies, and research communities.
whether the US initiative will be as effective in implementing its far-reaching goals as it was in pooling disparate sources of knowledge to design its vision for 2020.4.4.
The new vision embraces participation at the conceptual level but it remains unclear how the highly ambitious concept will be implemented and
and develop these visions. These early activities brought together the formerly unconnected fields of nanoscale science
and engineering under a broad definition of nanotechnology and served as the foundation in developing long-term R&d visions and strategies.
In the US the new vision for 2020 represents such a concept, while in Germany many different agendas were developed in parallel without a common strategy.
The updated nanotechnology vision in the US 3 is envisioning the involvement of a broader range of experts and stakeholders and addresses societal challenges through a sophisticated concept of future nanotechnology governance.
It has established broad networks with a focal organization as the basis for implementing its strategic vision.
IWGN workshop report, Vision for Nanotechnology research and Development in The next Decade, 1999.2 BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, in:
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
and systemic eco-innovation 8. All these concepts are calling for transformative visions, scenarios and roadmaps challenging today's paradigms and basic assumptions on system dynamics.
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
but also by the distinct steps for building the scenarios or visions of the future. In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,
For each cluster, a fictive vision was developed by the project consortium by way of amplification using the three principles Transfer, Generalisation,
The resulting visions were discussed with innovation experts with different perspectives on innovation patterns through interviews and an online survey.
The vision based survey was received very positively by the responding experts. The INFU visions generated high interest in the project and in further interaction and participation.
This interest was not only due to the attractive presentation of the visions but also due to the focussed and clear description and the perceived novelty of at least some of the visions (Figs. 5 and 6). The expert interviews were carried out by different researchers from the project consortium.
Therefore, it was essential to use a structured outline for the interviews to ensure comparability.
Inmost cases the expertwatched themovie describing the set of visions2 and answered the online survey in advance to the interview.
and to suggest a clustering of the visions. Finally, it was discussed which visions were most interesting
and should therefore be considered in more detail. In total 25 experts were interviewed by phone or personally 24.
Many participants stressed their interest not only in the visions but also in the weak signal collection available on the internet. 2 The movie is available at www. innovation-futures. org. 455 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change
survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,
Since the visions describe a still unknown and abstract situation, so called story-scripts were used for the visualisation.
Story-scripts combine pictures and drawings for visualising a fictive future situation. The photographic image facilitates immersion into a possible situation in the future,
and might be misinterpreted as something fully invented clear---unclear 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Vision 5 Vision 2 Vision 4
Vision 11 Vision 1 Vision 3 Vision 8 Vision 13 Vision 19 Vision 12 Vision 6 Vision 14 Vision 10
Vision 18 Vision 7 Vision 16 Vision 17 Vision 9 Vision 15 Fig. 5. Clarity of INFU visions assessed in the survey (n=56).
) 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Vision 10 Vision 6 Vision 11 Vision 13 Vision
1 Vision 5 Vision 12 Vision 4 Vision 14 Vision 8 Vision 2 Vision 16 Vision 9 Vision 15 Vision
7 Vision 17 Vision 3 Vision 18 Vision 19 Fig. 6. Degree of novelty of INFU visions assessed in the survey (n=56). 459 E. Schirrmeister
and the visual experience (Fig. 4). Participants expressed their appreciation of the visualisation not only explicitly in the interviews but also in the written feedback included in the survey.
Furthermore the high number of people watching the trailer in the internet can be interpreted as an appreciation of the visualisation.
Participants of the online survey extensively used the possibility to comment on the visions. Looking at the comments it is striking thatmany participants used a very informal language.
This holds especially true for the vision Darwin's Innovation that was quite provoking. It received highly controversial assessments by the experts ranging from very interesting to bullshit.
In order to test the approach (only very short textual information) respondents were asked to assess the clarity of the visions in the INFU online survey.
Most visions were assigned a high degree of clarity by the majority of the survey respondents (Fig. 5). At the same time almost all of the visions were assigned a high degree of novelty.
Concerning the novelty of the visions there was no consensus among the experts (Fig. 6). This result is quite striking
since all of the experts considered the visions to be clear, but still they assessed the novelty quite differently.
Except for vision number 5 (public experimentation, evaluated less clear than all the other visions) and vision number 10 (innovation imperative) all the visions showed a similar distribution,
but for each vision different people considered the vision familiar or unfamiliar. These results show that by using weak signals from diverse sources of information it was possible to generate visions covering a wide range of different perspectives.
The format of story-scripts with very short textual description proved quite challenging for describing a vision that is new to at least some of the respondents.
Therefore it was important to ensure a congruent understanding of the visions among the experts.
During the interviews, the project team analysed whether the individual perception of the visions by each of the experts corresponded to the comprehensive descriptions of the visions previously developed by the project team.
The interviews revealed that for some visions the visual information was interpreted in a slightly different way by the diverse experts.
After discussing the variations of the perception of these visions the project team decided that the slightly differing understandings remained within a tolerable interval.
For one vision the visual information was connected to a specific association leading to a strong emphasis on one specific aspect of the vision.
This was the case for Innovation on request showing an election with personal attendance. This image seemed to foster the idea of time consuming and slow participative processes.
This interpretation did not correspondwith the intention of the project team and the comprehensive description of the vision.
For this vision the visual information combined with the short textual information was not sufficient to communicate the vision adequately to the experts.
The same phenomenon was observed for the vision public experimentation. These two visions were excluded thereafter from further interpretation. 2. 3. Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change A third innovative feature developed within INFU to underpin the capture of structural change is the application of a framework of dimensions of change at the very beginning of the project.
This framework was developed by the project consortium based on the review of academic literature on innovation patterns
and the initial analysis of the signals of change described above 16. Throughout the project the team discussed
and assessed how far the emerging visions were covering the different ends of these dimensions.
Fig. 7 shows the results of one assessment in an early stage of the process.
While some visions reflected a permanent and continuous innovation process others illustrated amore focussed, occasional innovation pattern.
The framework developed within the INFU project supported an analysis of structural changes hinted at by several visions.
From all reactions collected on the 19 visions through the survey and the interviews the project team identified eight critical issues that seemed to have special potential for changing today's innovation patterns.
They were subcontracted by the INFU consortium to further develop the vision of a future innovation landscape without any constraint as to the visioning approach.
The INFU teamimposed only a very rough indication on the format for the vision's delivery.
Typical means deployed by the mini panels to express their visions were: emblematic images (e g. for widespread creativity, Fig. 8) abstract schemes (e g. for social experimentation, Fig. 9) stories fromthe future ranging from short day in a life segments (e g. for deliberative innovation
Fig. 8. Element from INFU vision"Ubiquious innovation"."Table 1 INFU mini panels. Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
France Drafting of Citizens Agency in a visioning session in Brussels with actors in social innovation a Citizens Visions in Science and Technology FP7 SSH project. b Cradle to Cradle:
Element from INFU mini panel vision Deliberative Innovation A day in a life of a Citizen in the Deliberative Innovation Scheme.
Compared to other weak signal scanning processes the inductive vision and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix
which is described often as the backbone of the scenario process 18. Visual inspiration turned out to be one of the main characteristics of the project.
and clarify the visions included in the project. In addition this classification provided information about the convergence
and divergence of the visions and fostered the search for specifications of dimension of change not covered in the first draft.
and are designed not to sketch out a comprehensive vision or scenario encompassing structural transformation. Mapping and interpretation of weak signals is still in its infancy and thus an important challenge for further studies 31.
but was integrated in the process of building visions and scenarios. Similar to approaches of participatory design 33 the story-scripts allowed peoplewith different backgrounds to imagine a situation in the future without comprehensive textual information.
In addition the appealing visualisation symbolised the creative, inspiring approach which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
The INFU visions gave rise to fundamental discussions among stakeholders regarding possible cultural transitions, new economic principles,
Throughout the project it was recognised that people are attracted by provocative ideas and visions. They serve very well to mobilise debates
namely that only positive visions that go along very well with the personal value systemare taken up and further developed.
Actors who considered a structural change as a positive transition werewilling to be involved in the further development of the visions.
Therefore an in depth analysis for these positive visions can be conducted easily whereas more gloomy visions may be neglected.
Finally, it is important to note that while INFU may have been successful in developing diverse visions pointing at potential structural change,
the next issue that will have to be tackled is the use of such transformative visions in actually managing transformative transition processes 34,35. 3 E g.
ISPIM conference Hamburg, 17 20th of June 2011, Lift conference Marseilles 2/3 july 2011 (INFU workshop), FTA conference Sevilla 2011,
and contrasted visions (deliverable D 2. 3), www. innovation-futures. org 2010.24 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, K.-H. Leitner,
Innovation futures scripts nodes of change in innovation patterns emerging from the explorative dialogue on the 19 INFU visions (deliverable D 3. 1), www. innovation-futures. org
The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society.
17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
and underpin new policies and visions. This motive is defined by Da Costa et al. 25 as the function of‘informing policy':
'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
to build argumentation for a long term policy vision and policy strategies innovating (policy preparation phase): to gather inspiration for innovative policy visions and policy strategies testing policies (policy preparation phase:
to gain insight into how future-proof and future-oriented policies really are evaluating policies (after implementation:
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
visions and value networks. 2 This was the departure point in designing the first questionnaire in the IMS2020 project as described in Section 3. 3 Contractor
Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined. The final roadmaps were designed towards such Joint Vision. 3. 1. State of the art
and expectations To kickoff the project-design together with consortia partners most of the initial debate centred on methodological aspects.
The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
and to allow partners to think freely without trying to connect these possible states of the future with the desired IMS2020 vision,
8. Discussing the above findings in a vision building workshop to define the main characteristics
or behaviours that should constitute the IMS2020 vision; 9. Circulating both the developed snapshots and the IMS2020 vision to all project partners
and the roadmapping support group for final refinements and to ensure that it encompasses all IMS regions.
The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,
and somewhat likely to happen by 2020 (likelihood>2). Based on the results of the vision building workshop a first draft of the IMS2020 Vision was developed by JRC-IPTS.
The final IMS2020 Joint Vision is based on inputs from the mapping activity the first online survey, industrial workshops,
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
which have been judged to be instrumental for the realisation of the defined vision 25. These topics have been shared
or benefits that they could deliver in a timeline towards the IMS2020 Joint Vision (see Fig. 4 below).
but equally important in attaining the IMS2020 Vision. To support shaping and refining robust and attainable RTS
and RAS the IMS2020 Vision was translated into SMART (i e. Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely) objectives for each KAT. 8 3. 4. Results and dissemination One of the main strengths of the project stemmed from the amount of support
The devised Joint Vision and roadmaps, which include the milestones of innovation activities identified, was open for wide consultation in the IMS region and beyond through a wiki platform.
and a common vision amongst the stakeholders taking part in the exercise. This generated momentum for shaping globally the intelligent manufacturing industry of the future 27.
to enable the IMS2020 Vision to become a reality. Ultimately it is hoped that once the findings of this project are put into practice it will help EU manufacturing systems to flourish sustainably. 9 4. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages
and cultures The most critical stage during the project was the scenario and vision building.
This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
to identify key elements for the joint vision Multiple approaches to develop scenarios Online elaboration of scenarios
and the vision supported wider engagement Inclusion of diverse stakeholder interests supporting the definition of the relevant vision Inclusion of diverse perspectives
in the vision building Roadmaps Stocktaking of the results from other phases Inclusion of multiple dimensions in roadmapping frame Intensive online panel work Cross feeding among different roadmaps to coordinate
The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work.
Such flexibility was very important during the scenario and vision building processes. In both cases meetings not initially planned were scheduled with selected partners
As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management. In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed
and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision. Here, although JRC-IPTS was facilitating and giving direction to the discussions,
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
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