Key Foresight concepts such as‘‘vision''that were used previously in a rather broad and all encompassing manner have been deconstructed
deals with the elaborating of the vision of the future of the system, in putting in place its instruments and regulations, its broad objectives and budget;
and create common visions into action 25, 27. Furthermore, Foresight processes are supposed to help designing new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
and even the destruction of lock in conditions by engaging different stakeholders in the proactive generation of rivalling visions for competing coalitions based on different value networks with different architectures, configurations, features and standards 37,38.
Foresight in support to building shared visions of the future reduces uncertainties and helps synchronize the strategies and joint actions of different stakeholders (e g. 39).
networking, and vision-building objectives: each cell of the matrix shapes a specific framework for Foresight,
Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
It has produced a 20-year vision and a short, -medium-and long-term Strategic research Agenda for Europe's plant sector setting out a consensus on the research needed to fulfil the vision.
This vision has de facto been considered by policy-makers at governmental and European level as the reference document for the orientation of research in this area.
Two other key elements are contributing to the future of this research field. 1) EU institutions have had a prominent legal role by delaying the introduction of GM crop in Europe.
On a closer look the needs for Foresight can be specified on the base of the field analysis. It seems unlikely that the existence of consensual visions focussing on GM research alone will be sufficient
and implement a European vision validated by policy makers and governments. It has produced a Strategic research Agenda (SRA) created through the concerted efforts of experts from industry, academia,
Even though there are a number of strong technological visions around many of them lack richness on the societal side.
Foresight oriented towards holistic visions building seems likely to provide relevant support here, which calls for operations in the orientation arena.
networking and vision building. The paper aimed to enhance the ability of Foresight to fulfil these functions through systematically taking into account (a) the specific characteristics of the research
An executive with the budget and vision to assess costs and longer-term benefits accurately is important to a fair trial of the process within a company.!
Scanning processes can serve as a form of peripheral vision (to avoid being blindsided by events outside one's industry),
Systemic and demand-side policies require a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers. The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood.
and the use of procurement or regulation to stimulate innovation is dependent upon the formation of a common vision between the supply
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.003 the planning and emergence of knowledge-based clusters is informed often by a vision;
new demand-side innovation policies such as the use of innovative public procurement and regulation to pull through innovations requires a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers.
Beyond this if we expand the vision to innovation policy the focus is very much upon using foresight methods to achieve alignment of the principal stakeholders around an agenda for the future.
expressed as a series of cascading visions 25. This implies a convergence with the broader structural exercises discussed above.
Breaking away from restricted and short-term vision and seeding new configurations is at the core of
i) vision-building for clarifying shared interests and joint benefits of international collaboration, (ii) networking for mobilizing the RTD communities in different countries
and of communicating these to suppliers brings to the fore the idea of using foresight to create a common vision as a framework in
''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision
and create common visions into action 2, 3. Furthermore, foresight processes can also become a pertinent design phase for the creation of new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
and create common visions and action plans 2, 9. Furthermore, foresight processes can often be seen as a pertinent design phase for the creation of newvalue networks that are based on novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
develop visions, defining the setting of priorities and have more accurate forecasts on the time-horizons of S&t developments. 2. 2. Chosen future perspectives:
and generating rivalling visions. Addressing both consensual and diverse future perspectives are crucial dimensions when dealing with sustainability, and security.
it is crucial to be able to develop also consensual visions and recommendations into action for policy and in more general decision-making processes. 2. 3. Chosen management approach:
Consensual National Technology roadmap (NTRM) in Korea has set up five complementary visions, two of which are related to sustainability
which we call Visions, Priorities, Agora and Innovations foresight. 3. 2. Visions foresight (consensual perspectives and informative outcomes) Visions foresight can be characterised as consensual,
informative processes that create understanding on common priorities, relevant collaborative networks and/or future actions.
and rivalling visions. This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making
hence this would suggest that foresight projects with open-ended diverse visions of the future are not common in these countries.
This is not surprising as one of the important foresight objectives are the priority-setting and common vision-building.
This allows addressing diverse perspectives and scenarios as well as common vision-building. However, positioning a project as informative
and shared visions of what futures to seek or avoid. Having key actors, or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,
/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/and/or action recommendations Reports on desktop surveys Background reports for focused workshops Reports on the results of SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action Integrative reports
In more aspirational‘‘success scenario''workshops or vision workshops it is more common for breakout groups to examine what a desirable future would look like in detail within specified subdomains,
Developments in text mining, visualisation, and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.
and methods make sure that the visions of different stakeholders can be represented harmonised and in the final outcomes and products?
it allows for the construction of common visions and produces issue-specific knowledge through dialogue,
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.
Findings FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
Furthermore, FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
the action plans aims at building a long-term vision, defining the role ITS will play in the future road transport system in Europe.
Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to develop a vision of a system's emergent properties the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts. 2. All systems have component agents (taxies,
Foresight techniques need to enable a vision of changes in the essential profile of a system. 3. The interactions between the component parts of a complex system
Foresight techniques need to enable visions of phase-changed worlds. Foresight techniques must also accept the likely absence of any early warning signals. 4. Extreme sensitivity to initial conditions.
B Enable a vision of a system's emergent properties. B Embrace emergence rather than planning and forecasting.
and develop a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts.
and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome, and policy options for that final outcome, rather than on a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the components,
and how that can be harnessed. Some writers Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), have considered how complexity-based foresight can be applied to policy making.
Promoting variation can also contribute to embracing emergence and to enabling visions of phase change situations.
and determine a vision Test policy options Monitor policy Source: Adapted from Bhimji (2009) PAGE 300 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 bring the benefits of realising that there are more variations than originally thought of
and determine visions Test policy options Monitor policy 1. Understand the varied expertise and resources are required to generate different visions 1. Create
and enable an environment for variation to occur 1. Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation
and deployment of these different visions through appropriate policies to minimize risks 2. Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective 2. Review of the efficiency of the policy options as newer conditions unfold
the different visions 3. Provide a range of policy options 3. Monitor and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level
Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.
and visions on the ways to achieve the desired low-emissions future. The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration
regarding to climate change mitigation as well as a variety of futures visions of sustainable Finland. This material was used as building blocks for the next phase of the exercise,
but rather an array of possibilities and alternative visions on the future development, as cognitive food for different policy options.
which made the visualisation of the atomic region more and more accessible for scientists. One of the first landmarks is the Nobel prize discovery of a new carbon molecule containing sixty carbon atoms (C60) in the shape of a ball in 1985 (also called a bucky ball) 15.
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
Nevertheless, nowadays long-range forecasts and visions do not seem to attract the attention of contemporary urban planners.
The formulation of visions and the display of technocratic predictions has been rendered obsolete by the need for consensus and compromise.
and formulate long-term development visions makes strategic planning a perfect client for futures studies. Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
and project long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. 2. Vision. Foresight elaborates a guiding strategic vision,
which shares a sense of social commitment about a certain issue. 3. Action. Foresight develops and implements strategic visions through detailed action plans,
which enable current actions to tackle the future successfully. Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.
territorial foresight gradually builds up an integrated vision of the possible future through participation methods. Foresight is thus complementary to the established planning processes
detailed outputs (visions or scenarios) that can be used as inputs for quantitative tools. With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
Once the visions are formulated, the functional implications for the territorial system are determined, which may display territorial elements,
and develop visions of alternative futures for a transition towards a more sustainable model. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 335 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
which it later designed a number of alternatives visions of Law in 2030. This project, most welcome for its originality
This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,
as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future, creating their own narratives and visualisations of forthcoming developments.
Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law. This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind,
As such, the scenarios used in these few cases constituted descriptive visions of techno-futures, illustrations
and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future. Furthermore they were not of a legal nature (of
but instead about what the world will look like after the implementation of certain emerging and future technologies (such as the vision of Ambient Intelligence or the prospect of human enhancement).
which legal experts were consulted for their visions of the future of Law in their respective areas.
visualisation and participation platform, called the Living Earth Platform, composed of three levels: the techno-socioeconomic‘‘flight simulator''(also termed as‘‘Living Earth Simulator'')a‘‘Planetary Nervous system,
using the latter as enablers of their vision of the future. This modus operandi goes by the name of backcasting
The predictive-policing vision moves law enforcement from focusing on what happened to focusing on what will happen
and visions will be very much the same as today's''(Rader and Porter, 2008). Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.
translating it into compelling narratives, stories and visions. Second, scenarios constitute channels through which such visions and narratives are communicated to larger audiences.
As part of the storytelling endeavor that has accompanied and shaped humanity throughout its entire history (from mythological oral tales to current technologically-intermediated means of communication),
as well as by assessing alternative visions of the future, scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
The alternative set of visions provided by scenario planning can be used to formulate and simulate different data-models of the future world.
and their performance by contrasting their initial (and desirable) visions of the future with the one effectively accomplished;
laws should ideally establish their vision of desired future, being confronted later on and evaluated according to the future effectively accomplished.
and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced
in order to attain the passing of a given law. The problem we here face is the one of having foresight used as a lobbying instrument
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product
which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.
Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers. The roadmapping process provides a way to identify,
There is a growing need to connect current nanotechnology research activities with visions of applications as well as to structure this field of investigation.
and visions and to get feedback about them. The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions
However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.
linking research activities with visions of products and applications and supporting more reliable judgements on the realism of or hurdles for innovations discussed.
vision-building and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation; shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee.
while simultaneously following their vision of the tenets of sustainable development? Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
The idea of an eye presupposes vision. Yet, the evolution has produced a large variety of similar structures for eyes again and again, directing development towards practically useful directions (Mead 1907.
After it evolves to a point where it becomes useful for vision, a newdomain of action emerges.
This domain is linked with the capability to make distinctions based on vision. At the same point, a‘world of vision'is created,
simultaneously with the functional organ that we now can call‘the eye'.'At this point, we can also start to tell a story about the‘proto-eye
The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.
and a world of vision emerges. This transition then opens the third act, where a new direction for development is possible
and where vision can be improved. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 746
In the creative evolution of the eye, before theworld of vision emerges and ontological expansion occurs,
The transitory moment when a proto-eye gains new meaning as an organ of vision is a creative moment
In a world where there is no vision, there cannot be weak signals of vision.‘‘Weak signals',‘early warnings,
'and‘seeds of future'thus emerge in retrospective accounts that shape history into prototypical narrative structures.‘
Not verifiable experimentally in the scientific mode Highly uncertain and complex, particularly relating to the existence of causal relationships Able to create the basis for visions of the future based on common ground among participants Action oriented in terms of identifying threats,
repertoire of visions and future assessments and how this both enhances and limits the efficacy of foresight.
and create common visions into action. Generally, foresight is distinguished according to method, objectives and setting. Various typologies of methods are available,
A third objective of foresight is to build a consensual vision of the future in order to harmonise strategies of the different stakeholders.
Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
expectations, visions already Abound in general, the social sciences emphasise that human activities are oriented intrinsically towards the future.
or guiding visions (Dierkes, Hoffmann, and Marz 1996; Sturken et al. 2004) like the‘electronic superhighway'in the 1990s or the‘hydrogen economy'of the last decade.
Eames (2006) and his colleagues have studied how the guiding vision of the hydrogen economy has lead to resistance.
when the general vision is filled in with concrete projects contestations will arise. Their example is the Clean Urban Transportation Europe project in the UK where industrial partners like Daimler-chrysler and BP,
Overarching vague visions that initiate and coordinate projects may run into trouble as soon they become more specific. 4. Lessons for foresight Foresight concerns a diverse set of policy exercises with different methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.
priority-setting, networking and building visions. As indicated below, the lessons often resonate with what foresight practitioners have discovered.
and outcomes become part of innovation races Networking Stakeholder participation tend to reproduce repertoires The newly established networks will start to promote the vision Participants may press their version of the future Building visions Foresight outcomes will not Be built very original visions may have unintended consequences
Visions may become self-fulfiling generating ideas on alternatives. Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo (2007,610), for instance, argue that‘..
The same risks loom for the objectives of networking and vision building: they may reproduce images
The concern about the general tendency to favour established parties and visions, at the expense of better alternatives, also holds for networking.
Visions of technology: Social and institutional factors shaping the development of new technologies. Newyork: St martin's Press.
Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 361 74.
Vision assessment: Shaping technology in 21st century society. Towards a repertoire for technology assessment. Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Groenveld, P. 1997.
Integrating CTA with vision assessment. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 3: 334 55. Rosenberg, N. 1982.
Technological visions. The hopes and fears that shape new technologies. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press. Sung, J. J,
to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,
Philips Design and Philips Research have developed jointly the‘Ambient Intelligence'vision, which means an‘intelligent home environment'that utilises a wide range of interconnected
By following this vision, Philips has built its core technological competencies around displays, connectivity, and storage and started to develop and to experiment with innovative product concepts in all its business divisions.
Peripheral vision. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Dill, W. R. 1958. Environment as an influence on managerial autonomy.
The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability. Keywords: network vision; management framework and path to sustainable development;
dialogue and interaction; disruptive and transformative change; FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation
which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:
so that companies can effectively follow their (network) vision of sustainable development. Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
or‘internalise'the underlying principles into their vision so that they can be translated further into their core business operations.
review and report A Sustain the business Interpretation Critical analysis by leadership Embedding Leadership and vision Source:
the actions or behaviours needed to promote the translation of the principles embedded in the vision into broad activities that,
shaped by a firm's individual context and culture, will offer different and clear possibilities to implement the organisation's (network) vision of sustainable development.
so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development and implement the designed plan to meet this vision,
as well as monitoring the business and its stakeholders'performance. Operation performance: verifying and reporting the business performance improvement through established and specific indicators
and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.
The accomplishment of such a vision depends on how each firm and its network of relationships interact across the network to align value-creating activities.
since it is based on a vision that characterises the universe as a nonlinear dynamic system, unpredictable,
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
enabling the design of the necessary actions to achieve the desirable future (how things ought to be done according to the business's and its networks'vision).
and its networks'progress towards the common vision of sustainable development. The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are
and strategy to a long-term common vision of where an organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
These take into consideration the diversity of views across the network and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
and desirable futures and articulation of visions and expectations needed to reach a common goal and an adaptive path to follow,
which are critical to achieve a common vision of sustainable development as well as to mobilise and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
in which each and every node of the network becomes an embedded participant that actively shapes the path to a common vision of sustainability Source:
Equally, Al Haig's dictum that‘vision without discipline is daydream'(Haig 1984) is necessary to prevent the outcomes of foresight becoming too expansive.
In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.
which a company will be seeking to achieve its (network) vision of sustainable development in uninterrrupte cycles of improvement.
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
focus on planning and controlling multiple activities-Shared vision, individual awareness and leadership exist-Positive emotions lead to creativity
, common vision Competencies-Information paper processing and fast accountability-No individual, team or organisational learning-Information general support,
this enables change towards a common vision using tools which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members including truly novel aspects of how the future might evolve.
Simultaneously, individual firms actively shape the future as an embedded network participant promoting a common vision within it
and mobilising and coordinating the necessary resources towards achieving such a vision. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
and reviewing the vision of sustainability Strategy Establish leadership commitment; and strategic architecture definition and review Partnerships Identify
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
and the network vision for sustainability (as it ought to be) in order to keep the firm on track of its designated vision Monitor the business Collecting
and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
and changes and improvements possible Partnerships Partnerships selection; building; and leveraging Motivation Motivational channels and processes selection;
performance reporting Sustain the business Achieve the identified vision of sustainability and giving subsidies for the creation of a new vision Verify
if the firm achieved its objectives along the network and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin
this would also enable the development of a common base of knowledge and sustainability vision,
and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
NS GSPSR NS GSPSR GSPSR KCGCB GSPSR KCGCB SIGMA KCGCB SIGMA SRI SIGMA SRI SRI Vision Actions Behaviours Proposed management
which will guide the organisation in the long run to achieve its desired vision of sustainable development and gain sustainable competitive advantages Communication The ability to document
Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
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