With the case of the city ofvienna, it is demonstrated that short-term, medium-term and long-term success of policy translation may vary.
The case analysis indicates that the outputs and outcomes of the foresight and strategy process were translated successfully into policy decisions immediately after the exercise.
In some cases only industry representatives are included in the process but usually foresight involves a cross-societal discussion of needs, possibilities and priority-setting.
thus play a central role in some cases a key role in the broader strategies and developments of science and research systems.
in extreme cases, change only occurs with the retirement of old staff and recruitment of new staff.
In the case of the research council there does not seem to be a formal or predetermined process for developing Strategy development of strategy is a muddling-through process,
There is no clearly defined time horizon in either case. The Technical research Council plan mentions that its strategy is about prioritising areas of science with special importance for society during the next 10 20 years.
An interesting observation in both the cases analysed is that the members of the core strategy groups are also those responsible for implementing the strategy.
In the case of the Technical research Council, it has obtained its legitimacy through law, as the council has a legal obligation to make strategy plans.
In the case of the Energy research programme, legitimacy is secured primarily through hearings. Table 1 gives an overview of the two case studies.
As the two strategy cases were analysed in the context of foresight parameters for comparing the case studies draw partly from contemporary discussions of foresight typology.
and understandings of the strategy processse that were undertaken (see Table 2). In the case of the Technical research Council a variety of rationales
Not least the research council case could have benefited from a more formal and structured process. This would have improved the transparency of the process.
and approaches to strategy exist concurrrentl among the participants in the cases studied, and this is especially true for the Technical research Council.
in some cases such‘business-school language'even disturbs meaningful strategic discussion. This problem might be mitigated by adapting language to fit the traditions of the research arena.
A clearer inclusion of stakeholders and of the general public in the research council case would have improved the plan's legitimacy;
the case of renewable energy technology in Sweden. In Technology and the market: demand, users and innovation, eds.
the case of Luxembourg Frank Glod a, Carlo Duprel a & Michael Keenan b a Fonds national de la recherche, 6 rue Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 933-951, DOI: 10.1080/09537320903262298 To link to this article:
the case of Luxembourg Frank Gloda*,Carlo Duprela and Michael Keenanb afonds national de la recherche, 6 rue Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, B
2014 942 F. Glod et al. the panels were asked to build a case for the prioritisation of the topic using SWOT analyses
In the case of FNR Foresight, these include the FNR itself, the MCHER, the research community and, to a lesser extent, the business community.
which had not been the case previously. Up until this point, the exercise had been conceptualised largely by the FNR,
the case of Luxembourg. Science and Public policy 35, no. 5: 361 71. OECD. 1991. Choosing priorities in science and technology.
science, technology and innovation policies give the thematic portfolio of a country or region a greater weight again and pay more attention to long-term perspectives.
However, in viewof the complexity and the ever-changing character of the object of policy which strongly applies in the case of innovation policy it is recognised now widely that there is neither a clear-cut recipe for nor an overarching theory of policy making (OECD 2005.
In the Viennese case, the range of‘relevant actors'is limited rather and generally well known. Identifying‘new'actors is less the key point than integrating the known actors (e g. from neighbouring policy areas) into the debates about research and innovation.
Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development ed. J.-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp.
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen a a Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway Published online:
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 971-986, DOI:
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation
Empirically, the case at hand illustrates the challenges posed by stakeholder participation based on the concept of‘Inclusive foresight'.
The stakeholders in this particular case were participants in a communal effort, also called‘local stakeholders'.
This specific case of municipal visioning illustrates how an image of young people was created in order to endow them with stakeholder characteristics that fit the objectives of the vision project.
The present case of a Norwegian municipal vision project points to the often implicitly assumed shared understanding of who young people are
as is often the case in municipal visioning projects. Visioning in the context of foresight How should visioning be understood in the context of foresight practises?
As the case of a municipal visioning project discussed in this article illustrates, visioning as a form of community participation does not yet follow commonly recognised principles and processes.
from authority to authenticity This specific case of a municipal vision project is not about the involvement of authoritative experts in foresight.
Further, this particular case is not an illustration of what Loveridge and Street (2005,32) discuss as‘inclusivity in technology foresight studies'in which‘experts
The stakeholders described in this case are also not sponsors of the exercise or‘organisations that might be expected to act in the light of the exercise's findings'(Keenan 2002,49).
This case addresses what Loveridge and Street call the‘third question'of foresight (2005,38). They argue that foresight has for too long concentrated on
'18 In the case of the Lundal vision project, long-term social planningwas intended to be influenced by young people between 14 and 19 years of age.
This case illustrates thus not only challenges of inclusive foresight taken up by Loveridge and Street (2005) but also much wider problems regarding good governance
The case shows that their perspectives were predefined already. The project leaders might have been a bit hasty in declaring their contributions as nonreflective and unstructured.
The case discussed here illustrates Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 982 S. Jenssen that power in such processes is both hierarchical and relational, yet‘not simply a relationship between partners, individual or collective;
In the case of Lundal's visioning project, the contribution of young people eventually mirrored existing political programmes.
That need no longer be the case. This paper makes the case for quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies. 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.007*Tel.:++1 770 441 1457. E-mail address: aporter@searchtech. com 1 He is also Professor Emeritus, Georgia Tech,
what it takes to produce composite empirical responses to particular technology management questions, quickly. 2. Case example:
In the latter case, downloading may have to be piecewise. Nonetheless, the entire process can usually be completed in minutes.
In this case, we actually began with searches on bfuel cellsq in general. These had yielded 11,764 abstracts of journal
Fig. 2 profiles one company's activity in this case for one technological development domain, SOFCS. Other variants of company profiling might compare the company's activities across technologies,
The bquickq in this case serves the person performing the search and analysis. Design of QTIP tools and functions must address the diverse needs of all the players.
Indeed, the characterisation of focus areas in panel reports suggested that the panels had succeeded in reaching a consensus (whichwas actually the case in most panels),
in this case forward-looking activities. The experience of FTA suggests that then new term will only have currency in the space and time in
In our case of Knowledge dynamics insufficient congruence would create tensions between research actors and their institutional environment asking for institutional change and strategic political action.
But, even in such cases, the distinction between orientation and programming will appear, since the decision will belong to the political arena.
and performance arenas need different types of Foresights and such is the case also for priority-setting,
we explore the implications of field specificities on the Foresight activities taking place in the three governance arenas identified in Section 2. 1. We will present two illustrative cases:
then we will elaborate the designs of the Foresight exercises fitted to the specific Knowledge dynamics and institutional arrangements in these two fields. 5. 1. The case of genetically modified plants (GMP) After the completion of the human genome map in 2001,
and programming arena by a stronger institutional steering on EU level. 5. 2. The case of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (N&n) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (N&n) are seen as the‘top-down'miniaturisation movement of three domains:
The framework was illustrated by two cases: GMPLANTS and Nano-research. Both field dynamics were described using the selected parameters.
Even though the analysis of the two cases could only be done in a very preliminary manner it proved possible to derive meaningful conclusions for the design of Foresight exercises.
Both cases have revealed a strong institutional complementarity reflecting an early alignment of academia and industrial research programs and much looser connections with social stakeholders.
Consumer attitudeswhichplay a keyrole in bothcase studies becamerelevantonly indirectly inthe case ofgm plants as a driving factor for legislation.
the case of the European union, Journal of European Public policy 3 (3)( 1996) 318 338.22 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Research policy 30
the case of nanotechnology, in: Presentation at the 2nd PRIME Indicators Conference on STI Indicators for Policy Addressing New Demands of Stakeholders, Oslo, 28 30,may 2008. 47 A. Bonaccorsi, The dynamics of science in the nano
we'll need to depend on humans for scanning, particularly in the case of open intelligence systems.
or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case
and that, given the wide range of risk/reward profiles among the selected areas, that a portfolio approach should be adopted.
Portfolios not projects lessons from industry: Research on prioritisation practice in the world's leading research companies in the USA and Europe has indicated that corporate labs had moved away from the traditional, discipline-based organisation 16.
and programme portfolios to meet these targets. Research is organised into a modest number of specific programmes.
They also play the principal role in the creation and management of portfolios of research projects.
In the former case, as shown above, the first UK Technology foresight Programme had evolving objectives
In some parts of Eastern europe priorities are an instrument to move towards a contemporary portfolio and away from the materials science/defence orientation of the Soviet era.
Considering these issues there is a prima facie case for the application of foresight approaches on a substantial scale.
the case of Russia, in: Bulgarian Integration into European NATO, NATO Security through Science Series:
which is often the case for example in Delphi projects 11. Autonomous management, in turn, refers to the process intermediated by the co-ordinators,
and evolving participant-led continuumofmeetings and other activities, whichmaybe the case for example in expert panelwork.
Fixed Robust portfolio modelling, online surveys. Autonomous Stakeholder workshops. Extensive Wide stakeholder participation in online surveys. Exclusive Limited but open stakeholder participation in the workshops.
and altogether they form the combination of a case specific process design. The positioning of individual projects in the framework clarifies the methodological decisions and the rationales of stakeholder engagement.
Once the projects are positioned in the framework they provide an overview of the whole portfolio of foresight projects analysed that supports building the more holistic view of the selected activities.
In many cases, policy-makers do not refer to the sources used when decisions are made. Almost all the analysed projects have outcomes that can be characterised as consensual.
involving more or fewer of these stakeholders across different cases. Learning implies the production and reproduction of knowledge
In the case in question we are led typically to think of the‘‘obvious catastrophes''and more or less wild cards mass epidemics, asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, accelerating climate change, and the like.
A similar case could be argued when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
than on more systematic accumulation of data about comparable cases, varying in terms of specific features. Thus the FTA field itself resembles many of the challenging problems,
We explore this in the case of scenario workshops, below. Yet other methods are brought into play in the broader design,
The knowledge and mental models of practitioners and stakeholders may have to be brought into play in such cases.
as in the case of genomics (controversies over stem cells, use of genetic information, etc.;
as Jaspers et al. 16 discuss in the case of Germany's Future programme. FTA ACTIVITIES necessarily involve, in a very central position, engaging knowledgeable agents,
and so on as is the case for many of the core topics that FTA addresses design of such texts can be very challenging.
When the FTA PROCESS involves a wide range of key actors in the case of the Nordic H2 energy foresight coming from several countries there are special challenges confronted in shared knowledge creation (even in agreeing upon which of Bell's‘‘posits''to explore
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
the case of‘Future',Seville, First International EU US Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2004 (available at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/papers
allowing their renovation (in the case of renewable natural resources), in proportion to the needs of future generations.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 283 CSR proponents have used four arguments to make their case 29:
prioritise and address the social issues that matter most or the ones on which it can make the biggest impact. 5. 1. Research on corporate social responsibility The business case for CSR can be divided into theoretical and empirical categories 30
and managers approach the business case for CSR in practice. Empirical studies suggest that the relationship between financial performance
and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.
The business case for sustainability The business case for sustainability is sector-specific. It is difficult for companies to build reasons for CSR with its apparent limited relevance to social and environmental risks and opportunities to a firms'core business.
in many cases, innovation, such as standards which can be improved continuously through a combination of both research and legislation 24.5.3.
Readings and Cases in Corporate Morality, 4th ed.,Mcgraw-hill, New york, 1970.26 BSR, Corporate Social Responsibility, Business for Social Responsibility, 2003 http://www. bsr
30 O. Salzmann, A. Ionescu-Somers, U. Steger, The business case for corporate sustainability: literature review and research options, European Management Journal 23 (1)( 2005) 27 36.31 U. Steger, A. Ionescu-Somers, O. Salzmann, The economic foundations of corporate
and thereby focuses on a single definition in each case after exploring several perspectives. This approach was selected
and in cases of climate, mega-trends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors.
In a very short time, slide rules and mechanical calculators disappeared and, in some cases, the companies that made these products disappeared
and should be pursued, there is a case that at this stage of the evolution of FTA,
In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
however, that in many cases transport policy and its projected outcomes are considered highly controversial. Critical attitudes towards the projected outcomes of planning processes are fed surely by experiences with previous transportation projects,
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
and that certainty in decision making is idealized only an limiting case. However for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application.
In the case of complex models in particular, there might also be surprises regarding the character of the effects;
or an extension to pure CBA in cases where important effects cannot be monetised MCA allows decision makers to include a full range of social, environmental, technical, economic,
is the case that quantitative modelling is used but leads to either controversial results or-from an ex post analysis perspective was proven to regularly provide obviously wrong results.
The latter case was somewhat characteristic for the 1950 and 60'ties. In this period, a highly optimistic view on the predictability of developments in the transport sector was dominating.
Also in this case, more open methods would have been needed to raise awareness for the uncertainties in the planning.
In this case, embracing emergence can mean supporting and encouraging the current situation, and its emergent change, in a way that ensures that generally desirable outcomes will thrive, irrespective of
In this case promoting variation also constitutes a risk management approach, whereby a policy is more able to work as its environment changes
In this case reframing can Table II A simple policy making model Policy direction! Policy design! Policy delivery Objectives Objectives Objectives Discover new policy problems
however, that in the way the exercise was carried out in this case, it is only possible to view future development through qualitative arguments.
This paper addresses this deficiency and presents experiences of one such case. These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long-range strategy planning.
This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,
The results, in most cases, do not portray accurate projections or action plans, but rather an array of possibilities and alternative visions on the future development,
The case of nanotubes Rutger O. van Merkerk T, Harro van Lente 1 Department of Innovation studies, Utrecht University, P o box 80125,3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands
This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation.
or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).
These steps make up the method we employ in this paper to perform the case study. These steps are elaborated on in Section 3. The case we discuss in the next section deals with nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
because it is as will become apparent a dynamic case among the (still) very few applications of nanotubes in electronic devices that also shows some commercial activity.
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1098 3. Case: nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes,
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
Such a case specific typology gives a focus for each level and is therefore useful to distinguish what the boundaries are of the case. 3. 1. 1. Society The scientific developments,
and understanding of nanotubes production and characteristics13 have led to expectations on the level of the society.
This is indeed the case when we look at how broad the application areas for nanotubes are addressed generally:
We already discussed how this technology works, as it is the subject of this case. Cientifica14 24 from a market perspective points out that,
A few examples from the case where this is visible will now be highlighted. First basic scientific results at the level of the research groups can influence the level of the technological field,
And while Collingridge's 1 dilemma of control definitively applies in this case, the concept of demerging irreversibilitiest helps to locate the first signs of new socio-cognitive patterns that will constrain
The three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation.
By applying the framework dynamically it was possible to identify emerging irreversibilities that directly relate to the case.
which is particularly cogent to the Spanish case. When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
which in many cases have been designed to simulate highly stable and predictable functional systems. Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
the cases of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade Abstract Purpose This paper seeks to propose the application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law.
and in some cases shape technological futures 2. It was used first by the European commission's (EC) Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) as a common umbrella term for technology foresight
As such, the scenarios used in these few cases constituted descriptive visions of techno-futures, illustrations
This is particularly so in the case of the construction of alternative scenarios, in which the future is segmented in a number of different (and sometimes conflictive and opposing) hypothesis. In this way,
This is the case of modelling systems, such as Futurict. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
namely regarding the case of predictive policing and the Compstat tool (described above). The latter constitutes an innovative approach to law enforcement.
is not always the case. As Staton (2008) argues: The future is the site of conflicting and competing discourses and ideologies,
In the case of FTA-based laws would a given piece of legislation be legitimised
and applying them to three specific cases: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
Furthermore, in offering a series of specific cases and examples of FTA TOOLS applied to Law,
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.
nanotechnology is a case for technology assessment. Technology assessment of nanotechnology has to deal with several methodological challenges:
Nanotechnology is a clear case for technology assessment. Because of the diversity of scientific and technological approaches pursued under the umbrella of dnanotechnologyt, for TA purposes some preparatory steps are needed.
Four further contributions analyse concrete cases of advanced FTA practices in areas that are characterised by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty.
whether this is actually the case, or whether it‘produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties,
Vecchiato kicks off a set of four contributions on concrete cases of how FTA is used in addressing compleexit and uncertainty.
According to Knight, in the latter case, the concept of probability or chance is simply inapplicable. Knight maintained that most business decisions are made in unique contexts that make statistical inference impossible and
In some cases, the model can be hardwired'in the biological system. For humans, anticipation is hardwired less,
In the case of GSM SMS, ontological expansion looks less radical, as the emerging new social practices can be understood as new forms of already existing practices.
In both cases, weak signals can be detected empirically only after the fact, when the future is already here
an extreme case of the combination of an Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 755 unusually severe earthquake and tsunami,
In all cases, actions, reactions and decisiion are framed in images of the future that circulate in professional networks or in the general media.
In the case of technological expectations, however, it is not easy to distinguish between the validity of a claim and the collective perception of it (Van Lente 2000;
3. 2. Force of expectations The case of Moore's Law is extreme, but highlights the forceful presence of expectations in industrial and professional networks.
In some cases, such as nuclear fusion, this mechanism has secured costly research during decades (e g. on the Joint European Torus and International Thermonuuclea Experimental Reactor),
as is usually the case, expectations indicate pieces of work and stipulate roles. Rosenberg (1982) argues that expectations about rapid technologicca development may inhibit the development:
In the case of genomics, for example, where knowledge about gene sequences and protein structures promises to lead to new,
Moore's law is an extreme case of a strategic game, reinforced by technology roadmaps, between manufacturers who cannot afford to lose the race.
In most other cases of technological development, expectations are less coercive, but still forceful (Brown, Rappert, and Webster 2000).
In that case, a counter-bid will soon be attractive. The effect of expectations also depends on the social distance to knowledge production.
In the case of priority-setting, foresight will reinforce innovation races: governments tend to follow the choices of other governments.
as we saw in the case of technology roadmaps. They thus tend to reproduce the circulating assumptions.
The case of open-end spinning rotors. Research policy 18, no. 5: 273 88. Bakker, S.,H. van Lente,
The case of hydrogen storage technologies. Technology analysis & Strategic management 22, no. 6: 693 709. Van't Klooster, S. A,
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