The most relevant example concerning the impact of foresight on the success of the organisation still remains the case of Shell scenarios and its anticipation of the forthcoming 1973 oil crisis (van der Heijden 1996;
These cases are extremely explanatory: on the one hand, the selected firms operated in distinct industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:
The cases of these firms are extremely explanatory: on the one hand, throughout the 2000s, BASF, Daimler, Philips,
we conducted a within-case analysis, whichwas the basis for developing early constructs and hypotheses.
Cross-case analysis and theory triangulation with different bodies of literatuur on environmental uncertainty, foresight,
that is, the context of our case firms Philips and Siemens, throughout the 2000s were rather dynamic.
Let us consider the case of consumer electronics: in the display and large-screen TV segment, in the last decade, there have been some major market launches of such new technologies as liquid crystal display, plasma display panel, surface-conduction electron-emitter display, organic
In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.
drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
operating in the consumer electronic business in the 2000s could be compared to the case of a player who still has to learn both the rules of the game
Let us consider the case of continuous drivers of change and the chemical and automotive industries first.
For instance, in the case of a completely new kind of products such as video on demand: what could be the price?
they might start using traditional foresight techniqque (e g. roadmaps in the case of Philips) in order to deepen the investigation of state uncertainty (e g. evolution of demand for new Internet-based services on TV),
That might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 794 R. Vecchiato be the case in the medium/long-term future of the automotive industry itself,
Theory building from cases: Opportunities and challenges. Academy of Management Journal 50, no. 1: 25 32.
The case of some Italian districts. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 7: 817 33.
The case for non-predictive strategy. Strategic management Journal 27, no. 10: 981 98. Yin, R. K. 2003.
The Nordic case of partnerships in an international context. In Corporate values and responsibillit the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,192 8. Denmark:
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Denmark: Samfundslitteratur, Narayana Press. O'sullivan, L, . and J. M. Geringer. 1993. Harnessing the power of your value chain.
Thus, in most cases, the analyst will make screen captures and note findings to be presented to others using more traditional static forms.
For instance, a portion of the EP portfolio dealing with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology has shifted from component integration to applications.
This unique set of technologies represents the development of a strong and innovative R&d portfolio.
The assessment was used to assist the IA leads in portfolio management activities. The visualization contained very detailed (and thus proprietary) information,
given its current portfolio and competency base. These areas include computational biology (both structural and genomics
The identification of these common points directs us to btechnology categoriesq that can be analyzed further to identify the portfolio of technology that characterizes the capabilities of each laboratory.
The current approach of applying information visualization tools to the analysis of the LDRD portfolio enables a comprehensive assessment of the technological development trends occurring within our IAS.
Four case examples The brief case examples are positioned according to the four roadmap scopes and the relevant knowledge spaces described in the previous section.
The aim of the case examples is to depict concisely how the systemic transformation capacities can be fostered by roadmap exercises combinnin different roadmapping scopes and knowledge spaces.
The central outcomes of the cases are contained in the concise conclusions after the cases. Building Services Roadmap:
strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.
strategy space and visionary space, systemic II scope Our fourth case is Nordic ICT Foresight, an example of a systemic foresight exercise (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a, 2007b.
Case conclusions and lessons learned All the case examples emphasise the roles of partial structural openness
In the cases, the targets of the systemic capacities varied according to the different knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes,
Three of the cases (building services roadmap, SSB network, and construction machinery roadmap) emphasised the building of a novel service-oriented culture,
The fourth case, Nordic ICT Foresight, was oriented a policy exercise targeted at national and transnational (Nordic) scales.
The key systemic capacities in these cases emphasised especially the structural openness towards new technological impulses
and fostering a service-oriented perspective was of importance in the cases. The case of the SSB network,
which was about building an explicit service-oriented R&d trajectory in an engineering-oriented RTO,
It can be assessed that in all the cases, the actual roadmapping process was able to endorse new ideas about markets, services,
One hindrance to converting the ideas into practices could be the somewhat abstract nature of the case examples:
all the cases dealt with topics that are likely to spur different interpretations among the actors and stakeholders.
which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,
On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
In the case of the visionary space, methods that bring more creative latitude, such as constructing exploratory future narratives
This paper illustrates application of the FIP approach for a further case, that of nanotechnology-enhanced solar cells(‘NESCS'.
given our case focus on solar cells. Several scholars seek to understand the driving forces and the blocking mechanisms that influence the development and diffusion of sustainable technologies (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;
In the other (our case), the analysts are conversant with the FTA, Competitive Technical intelligence, and innovation processes,
3. 2. The case of DSSCS Nanotechnology entails engineering matter at molecular scale, seeking novel applications of new materials and devices.
4. Results We emphasise the relatively novel steps in our 10-step FIP process (Figure 1) for the DSSC case:
for a set of publications indexed by WOS (in this case, by SCI, which is part of WOS),
. 1 8. 2 National Taiwan University 1. 5 5. 2 5. 8 7. 2 Imperial College
exploring which functions pertain to particular applications (in some cases requiring partitioniin functions and/or application sets;
Experience in applying it to several NEST cases indicates good potential, but also limitations. The potential draws on the practical combination of empirical and expert knowledge to capture key technology
The case of nanotubes. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 9: 1094 112. O'Regan, B,
The case of nano-enhanced solar cells. ITICTI International Conference on Technological innovation and Competitive Technical intelligence, Beijing.
and‘‘dialogue''as a creative process aimed at generating insight and, in some cases, consensus In the case of strategic dialogues,
The following three examples outline specific cases of application and demonstrate the power of strategic dialogues as an instrument for a broad range of subject areas in the context of national research policy making.
These are presented not as full case studies due to the sensitivity and confidentiality of certain aspects.
It relates the case of foresight or future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) used for research and innovation policy agenda-setting, conducted in Ireland.
Similarly, there were examples where the drivers appeared to be amplified even more in the case of Ireland particularly in terms of economic geography and scale. 3. 3. 3 Phase 3:
In some cases, the diagnosis of the grand challenge in The irish context was more straightforward than the construction of a set of possible responses from the research and innovation system.
In such cases it is difficult to conceive of clear research-based solutions. How‘‘grand''and‘‘societal''should the challenges be?
''and‘‘grand societal challenges''at least in the way the terms have been used to date in the EU. In The irish case,
In this case project materials are used as one information source among others, and do not have direct influence on policy-making.
In South korea's case, most of the Delphi topics were regarded by experts as having realization before the year 2020;
differences in technology development focus or portfolio strategy can be identified. From Japan's result, technology development is focused more on using different source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
or in cases where the the Delphi topics describe a technology with vague scope. Third, since the mechanism of incorporating of foresight results into research
and indeed, should certainly seek lessons by analysing cases and by trying to develop taxonomies of strategy and policy needs;
The role of FTA in this case is to achieve articulation and orchestration of activities 3. Policy-makers are concerned naturally with changes
The very nature of grand challenges in most cases requires co-operation and co-ordination across (i) policy domains and (ii) governance (policy) levels.
They posit that in many cases combining QL and QT approaches does lead not only to a richer analysis of possible futures,
successful cases and good practices to build trust,(e) creation of technological and methodological interfaces between QL and QT approaches,(f) setting up of multidisciplinary teams from the very beginning of an exercise
Hamarat et al. 11 explore the application of EMA combined with a number of tools in a case that focuses on a large systemic transformation or transition of an energy generation system towards a more sustainable functioning.
In some cases, the interactions between the two approaches are limited to cross-checking of assumptions and findings of the same analysis
Remarkably, evidence stemming from the forecasting communities on cases combining qualitative and quantitative methods is limited rather,
or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge
In this case results of qualitative and quantitative techniques feed into each other at several stages of the process
with some kind of bridging mechanism to connect the respective outcomes. 4. 2. Cultural differences in FTA A layer of complexity is added to this methodological debate in the case of FTA,
The latter, in the case of quantitative models, take the form of numbers with associated probability distributions
However, in the case of long-term horizons, such informed estimates have limited only predictive value. As clarified by Lüdeke 64,
This is even more the case when different types of methods are applied where it is important to combine
in such cases, combinations are possible. White 75 suggests that combining methods mainly needs mutual professional respect.
the case of energy and environment policies, Peter Lang, 2010. ISBN 978-90-5201-586-6 pb. 33 N. Shibata, Y. Kajikawa, Y. Takeda,
Change 78 (2011) 256 273.38 P. Lee, H. Su, F. Wu, Quantitative mapping of patented technology the case of electrical conducting polymer composite, Technol.
a case of strategic agenda setting in European innovation, innovation: management, Policy Pract. 14 (3)( 2012) 449 469.40 F. K. Jin, W. R. Fah, N d. En, L. M. Wei, L
Both cases borrow necessarily the discussion of methods and tools that have grown explosively in recent years related to the biosciences, bioinformatics and evolutionary approaches.
it becomes necessary to draw upon social experiences to provide the necessary analogies 4. This is the case in cellular and molecular biology,
That is evidently the case of the theory of evolution itself: we evoke metaphors in both ways, from the biological to the social and also in the other way around, from the social to the biological.
or Verhulst equation (which as we well know is a particular case of the Volterra Lotka equations,
See that in the first case (growth of a body mass) one is measuring indirectly the cumulative growth of a population of cells,
In both cases there is no kind of genetic inheritance controlling the ceiling of the growth process.
It is well known the case of the pioneering work of Fisher and Pry 9 demonstrating the validity of the normalized logistic equation in accounting for technological substitution processes or for the diffusion of basic technological innovations.
business or politics (as in the case of globalization) or restricted to more scientific discussion rounds (the case of complexity),
Looking at the history of inventions and basic innovations we can find some evident cases of intended
in the case of genetic evolution, the most important evolutionary forces, processes that are capable of changing gene frequencies
is illustrated on a policy-making case related to energy transitions. This case demonstrates how the performance of a policy can be improved iteratively by exploring its performance across thousands of plausible scenarios,
identifying problematic subsets that require improvement, identifying adaptive high leverage actions with which the adaptive policy needs to be extended until a satisfying dynamic adaptive policy is found for the entire ensemble of plausible scenarios.
and the case we use to illustrate the approach here relates to policy-making for stimulating energy transitions.
The proposed approach is illustrated by means of a long-term policy-making case related to the transition of energy system toward sustainability.
This energy transition case is used therefore for illustrating how this approach could be used for policy-making,
Section 3 contains the energy transition case and the illustration of our approach to it.
Here we focus on the competition between technologies. 3. 1. Introduction to the energy transition case
out of 10,000 simulations, 651 cases were excluded for that reason. Fig. 3 shows the results of 1000 randomly selected cases out of the remaining 9349 runs in the post-processed‘no policy'ensemble.
The figure shows the behavior over time for the outcome indicator‘fraction of new technologies of total energy generation'as well as the Gaussian Kernel Density Estimates (KDES) 56 of the end states.
three troublesome uncertainty subspaces that contain at least 70%of the cases of class 1 are identified.
the same 9349 experiments used for exploring the no policy case are executed now with the basic policy.
in our case (not considering long term security of supply), serves the same goal as the transition.
The proposed approach has been illustrated on an energy transition case. Several of our findings warrant further discussion.
has been illustrated through a case about the structural and systemic transformation of energy generation systems toward a more sustainable future.
The presented case illustrates howmodels can be used to support decision-making, despite the presence of awide variety of quite distinct uncertainties and a multiplicity of plausible futures.
In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity.
In the second case, EMA is combined with a hybrid model for airport performance calculations to develop an adaptive strategic plan.
This case shows how one can iteratively improve a strategic plan through the identification of plausible external conditions that would cause the plan to performpoorly.
In the final case EMA is combinedwith an agent-based model to study transition dynamics in the electricity sector
In these cases, there are many components and mechanisms that interact in a variety of ways,
three case studies are reported in Section 3. Section 4 is a discussion of the results of these cases and their implications for FTA.
Another example is the case where there is ample data available but also disagreement or uncertainty about which data to use.
Other possible uses of EMA include the identification of extreme cases, both positive and negative,
Illustrations of EMA In this paper, EMA is illustrated via three cases. These cases differ in application domain, the type of models used,
and the purpose of the study. In this way, together these cases offer a good overview of what EMA is about,
and what can be done with it. Each of the cases is related to important societal challenges.
The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
The second case shows how EMA can be used to develop adaptive plans for guiding airport development.
Airports are a major driver for regional and national economic development. Future uncertainty is increasing because contextual conditions are less stable,
The third case presents an EMA study into transition pathways for the Dutch electricity system.
and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
EMA is used in this case to create insight into plausible dynamics. That is, it serves as an existence proof generator. 3. 1. 1. Model Traditionally,
The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
Table 4 gives an overview of the major uncertainties that are explored in this case. For more details on the parametric ranges of the various uncertainties see 15.
In this case we use EMA to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
'and then follow the path from that leaf back to the root to identify which uncertainties jointly produce the cases belong to that particular leaf.
This reveals that the cases where the fraction of fossil fuel-based generation is lower than or equal to 0. 6,
That is, in most cases, the fraction of fossil based generation in the final year is higher than 0. 6. Thus,
We illustrated EMA for FTA using three cases. Below we shortly discuss each case, before drawing more generic implications of these cases on the potential of EMA for FTA.
These cases differed in the modeling paradigm that was used, in the application domain, and in the type of problem being investigated.
The first case showed how EMA can be combined with System Dynamics to investigate the types of behavior that can occur with respect to mineral and metal shortages.
In this case both parametric and Fig. 5. Performance envelopes and distribution of end states for five outcome indicators.
Fig. 6. Classification tree of fraction fossil-based generation. 428 J. H. Kwakkel E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 some structural uncertainties were taken into account.
The case also showed that further research on time-series clustering is necessary to facilitate the interpretation of results.
the results of the case could be used to identify early indicators of, for example, cyclic pricing behavior.
The second case used an ensemble of hybrid models to facilitate the design of a good plan for shaping
The case illustrated how through the use of nonlinear optimization techniques a performance bandwidth could be established across all the uncertainties.
The third case illustrated how EMA can be combined with agent-based models. In the case, we investigated the transition patterns that could occur and
which combinations of uncertainties resulted in which transition pattern. The case thus showed how complex and highly uncertain phenomena
such as transitions, can still be treated despite the presence of uncertainties. Moreover, it illustrates how one can identify the ranges of uncertainties that are favorable to a desirable transition and
These three cases show that EMA can be of use to FTA. FTA aims at offering systemic considerations on future developments for dynamically complex issues.
All three cases illustrate this systemic exploration, while in particular the first and third case demonstrate how this can be combined with nonlinear dynamic models (System Dynamics and Agent Based Modeling respectively),
which are more appropriate for the types of systems and phenomena FTA applies to. FTA intends to guide policy
The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.
In light of all this, EMA thus appears to be a useful addition to the portfolio of methods
The cases presented and discussed have shown that EMA can be used to handle diverse types of uncertainties in combination with three quite distinct modeling approaches.
Moreover, the cases have shown how EMA can be applied to different domains. All three cases, but in particular the second case, showed how the ability to cope with uncertainties can help in iteratively developing dynamic adaptive strategies that are robust across a large part of the uncertainty space.
Uncertainty is recognized increasingly as being a major problem for the use of models in decision-making. The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
EMA can have profound implications for the way in which uncertainty is treated and models are being used to support decision-making.
EMA can for example be used to iteratively reduce the expected bandwidth of model outcomes as in the second case presented.
a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.
The three cases also illustrate the need for combining EMA with machine learning or data mining techniques
In the three cases presented in this paper we have shown that EMA can be used for that purpose.
He has worked on cases in various domains including air transport, port planning, fresh water supply in The netherlands, world water scarcity issues,
By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified.
The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 17 scenario projects (see Appendix 1. for an overview of the cases.
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
the scenario cases are evaluated using the three complementary questions on policy change mentioned in Section 2 (Material and methods).
For example, by analyzing the dominant motivation of the scenario cases we found a tension between incentives for consensus building and incentives for discovery.
A good example can be found with the scenario practice developed by the Natural Step3 (see for instance Givaudan case in Appendix 1). The focal points of the scenarios are sustainability concerns and criteria.
we argue that our reflexive inquiry of the selected cases from Appendix 1 helped disclose several representation issues in scenario practice.
Following a reflexive inquiry methodology in the analysis of the scenario cases listed in Appendix 1,
For these two groups, the scenario cases have been analyzed to disclose elements of theoretical premises. In the first group, we found that the scenarios are used for supporting strategic discussions about futures that are shaped by surprise and confrontation.
Each of the case elements and aspects of different groups are present, therefore it is not possible to link groups with cases query.
However, as described in the previous section, for each of the groups an example (s) of good practice from Appendix 1 is included in the text. 439 P. De Smedt et al./
Denmark Green Technology foresight M. S. Jørgensen, Case Denmark Green Technology foresight, Phase 1, in: K. Borch, S m. Dingli, M. S. Jorgensen (Eds.
the case of clean production, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 1061 1075.72 L. Ilmola, O. Kuusi, Filters of weak signals hinder foresight:
In the case of nanotechnology, a variety of FTA ACTIVITIES have been in use over the last quarter of a century to structure the field itself
where a similar governance framework as in the case of nanotechnology is discussed 10 (M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
In the case of nanotechnology, there was no centralized and formal planning process, but rather a coordination of future-oriented activities that allowed the departments involved to develop their own individual agendas
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
As is the case in fully fledged technology foresight programs cf. 47 the activities under the umbrella of the National science and Technology Council Subcommittee were per se closely policy-related and, in the last decade,
as opposed to the US case. In 2003, the BMBF developed a national strategy for future funding and support of nanotechnology.
and in the case of the US a growing recognition to include a wider range of stakeholders
The case for a global moratorium. No small matter II, in: Occasional Paper Series, vol. 7, nr. 1, 2003, p. 20s,(Winnipeg.
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