In many cases mode 1 foresight 1 that fosters the recognition of intra-systemic alternatives, underpins the optimisation of robust strategies within the existing paradigm,
For a growing number of cases, however the need to think about change in the conditions of change 2 is being recognised.
One prominent example is the case of priority setting for science, technology and innovation policy a highly relevant domain of foresight activities.
In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,
As a consequence, in many cases the scenario logic is dominated by very general macro-level factors such as globalisation or societal values.
Inmost cases the expertwatched themovie describing the set of visions2 and answered the online survey in advance to the interview.
This was the case for Innovation on request showing an election with personal attendance. This image seemed to foster the idea of time consuming and slow participative processes.
E g. in the case of openness special effortswere made to check for possible signals of closure in innovation patterns.
the inductive scanning of signals with only minimal imposition of predefined categories proved an adequate approach for the INFU case.
In particular in the case of an inductive approach where a large number of micro-level findings need to be structured
Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
The result of this has been a portfolio which has consisted of three main elements. The first has been so-called direct measures, grants or fiscal incentives for R&d,
and scanning of what is going on in research than is currently the case. The bigger change in policy is in the domain of strategic
so that serious attempts to address them need to be transnational or in some cases global.
In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
but make the case in two different ways:(a) One set seeks to understand the context in which FTA is used currently,
This case is deemed relevant because it highlights the need to understand interconnected innovation systems, ways of being responsive to diverse languages and cultures,
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.011 authors make the case for taking all four of these areas into account
Like De Moor et al. this paper uses established Foresight theories applied to selected cases that provide evidence in support of their hypotheses.
They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and the difficulty of making sense of this continued diversity of the FTA voices made another case.
A second related weakness is signalled by the difficulty of making a credible case for the links between the case studies and the associated methodologies.
perhaps more importantly, provide the foundations for systematic design criteria the case tested theories that allow tools to be tailored to tasks.
The paper is based on two Danish cases: The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005,
the case of Luxembourg'9. Other literature suggests that geographical regions are a useful form of contextual categorisation.
Section 4 presents two cases: The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Research2015 process, from 2008.
In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.
Section 4 concludes with a discussion of the findings in the two cases. In Section 5
As the practical use of foresight methods varies significantly from case to case, such a categorisation of methods must be considered as only indicative.
Expertiseinteractioncreativ ityevidenc eexpe rt pan elsexpe rt pap ersdialogu e meeting sindicatorsconferencesfactshee tsuserpan elsworkshopshorizon scann ing Fig. 2. Foresight methods used in the two cases:
In the latter case, the focus is on the inclusion of and interaction with the wider public and not on expertise-oriented types of foresight methods. 4. Two cases:
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 project This section briefly describes two cases of forward-looking policy making in Denmark.
which is the second case. Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
The available material contains no information on why this was the case. The expert panel structured the material into 42 proposals for strategic research themes.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 13 4. 3. Discussion of the cases Neither Research2015 nor the Globalisation Strategy was recognised by their key
In Fig. 2, the foresight methods that were applied in the two cases are indicated using Popper's Diamond,
The country's low uncertainty avoidance is reflected in several ways in the two cases. When during the Research2015 process, the expert group worked to reduce the number of themes for strategic research
the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 november (8))(2009) 933 951.10 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
and analysing the cases, we adopted a demand-driven approach, focusing on the end-user perspective i e.,
Each case involved experiences with the application of scenario analysis methods at a regional and/or local policy level (including municipalities and regional authorities.
The cases were selected on the basis of whether they involved the use of scenarios for strategic policy-making
The case involving the Province of Limburg concerns the use of two scenario studies, each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16,
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
The case of Trendbureau of Overijssel includes different foresight exercises for strategic policy processes of city councils and the provincial organisation itself, focusing on different policy themes.
In the case about The hague, a scenario analysis was carried out by 16 civil servants of the Department of Urban Development,
In all cases, the scope of the analysis was the future of a territorial entity,
the interviews were not representative of the Ministry in question in all cases. However, since the aim was to explore how foresight
In the The hague case the researcher trained the officials in the use of the scenario analysis method,
while in the Overschie case, the researcher facilitated the scenario development and application process and was one of the authors of the scenarios.
In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.
In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future
In the case of content-driven motives, we can distinguish between motives such as (see also 1, 2, 4, 5, 12:
The results of the cases made it clear that, at the local level, it is still difficult to connect the insights of a scenario exercise to different steps in a strategic policy process.
ownership of the scenarios was unclear in some cases. Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,
In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.
In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models
or barriers that are valid in every case, which is why a contingency view on designing foresight studies is recommended highly.
the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:
the case of Japan, Technological forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 431 447. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 26
It is often the case that an exercise is shaped together with the client, project partners and other key stakeholders.
thus leading to diverse impacts in different regions and conditions. 3. Case: intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS) 2020 IMS2020 was an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European commission within the IMS Framework, conducted by an international consortium of 15 core partners and a large group
In both cases meetings not initially planned were scheduled with selected partners in order to ensure common understanding, ownership of results and commitment to the way forward.
Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case
the case of a professional service firm, International Journal of Project Management 31 (2013) 366 377.
The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,
This is especially the case for implementations around Emerging s&t fields. These depend on strategies requiring coordination of research activities from different research actors,
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
He does this by using European Universities as a case example and he addresses the above listed shortcomings. 4. Concluding remarks We note some of the issues presented in the concluding session of the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR.
is that they are in many cases not empowered and encouraged to do so. By means of‘scripts'and‘intended uses'which are built in by firms and developers in advance the possible representations of users, their mind-sets and roles as e g.,
Moreover, traditional user research methods tend to be focused on the‘here and now'and in most cases,
On the other hand, it can also be the case that only a very narrow spectrum of users is involved.
In crowdsourcing on the other hand, an unsolved problem or question in this case what are (future) needs concerning digital TV is submitted to a large‘crowd'of users, drawing on knowledge that is available in the crowd.
In most cases however, researchers need to fall back on secondary sources 28 which makes it more difficult to distinguish empirical observations from assumptions.
This was the case for all 6 personas, both the positive and the negative personas.
as was the case in Study 2, both very advanced users as well as non-expert users are capable of reflecting on possible future developments, their possible impact,
Insights from three practical cases Sidnei Vieira Marinho a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b c a Universidade do Vale do Itajai'(UNIVALI), Floriano'polis, Brazil b Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain
In reviewing three cases in which their system was applied, they highlight that the inclusion of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) would have prevented some of the failures experienced.
The selection of cases followed three premises:(a) prior implementation of the balanced scorecard to check
In this context, the proposed system aimed to become an important strategic tool for monitoring the effectiveness of public management. 3. 1. 2. Description The first case aimed to assess the efficiency of the Brazilian State of Parana in sharing
nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.
common sense and past experiences. 3. 2. 2. Description The second case aimed at verifying if the social responsibility indicators used by a higher education institution were aligned sufficiently to its strategic objectives.
and projections for the years to come. 3. 3. An example from the not for profit sector 3. 3. 1. Rationale The third case was selected due to the growing importance of the third sector in Brazil and worldwide.
together with its employees. 3. 3. 2. Description The third case was designed to see how a nonprofit organisation unfolded its strategic objectives into actions aligned to a dynamic budget (step 6 under phase 3). It aimed to show community members the benefits
In this case the proposed system allowed the preparation of a business plan for obtaining resources from the UNDP Programme.
otherwise have been the case 39. Coordinating such interactions is thus paramount to enable alignment of actors
and applied to three cases. The foresight activities are analyzed in terms of type scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
‘Networked foresight'is clearly observable in all three cases. Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight.
However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that‘networked foresight'entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e g.,
We explore these questions by describing three cases with different settings, by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)
This is followed by the description of the three cases according to the CIM concepts. Special emphasis therein is placed on foresight activities.
The subsequent case-specific discussions are followed by a cross-case evaluation. The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
In this paper, this relationship is investigated by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model to three cases. Moreover, activities observable in the three cases are Table 1 Generations of innovation management and futures research (based on van der Duin 3
see also Daheim and Uerz 23. Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
and innovation networks and assessing the use of networked foresight activities this study uses a multi-case design.
first two cases already allow for literal or theoretical replication and thus more robust conclusions 46.
The contexts of cases usually differ to some extent. Thus, the generalizability is increased substantially when arriving at common conclusions for the cases.
Second, different cases can be used to cover the extremes of the unit of analysis, in our case‘networked foresight'.
'The cases in this article allow the focal phenomenon to be described and discussed in great depth,
while making it possible to compare different settings and eventually derive cross-case conclusions. The WINN case allows futures research to be examined in a cooperation between two partners (RWS
and an external consultancy Deltares) enhanced by external knowledge. The EICT case allows a cooperation of a small set of trusted partners to be studied,
while the EIT ICT Labs case made it possible to observe futures research activities in a large network of around 65 partner organizations.
To collect data for the EICT and EIT ICT Labs case studies a participant-observer approach was utilized. 2 In both cases
data collection instruments included access to key documents, such as reports, internal documents, presentations and meeting minutes and observations through active participation within the organizations and, to some extent, in the build up Phase in the WINN
case ten innovators from RWS and its innovation partner Deltares were interviewed in addition to analyzing key documents.
For analyzing the future orientation and openness of the three networks we applied the Cyclic Innovation Model as an analytical framework.
The identified foresight practices are categorized according to their character, in this article scope, type and the impact of its results.
However, we ensured that at least one researcher acted solely as an observer in both cases.
That is, the cases are translated into the concepts of the CIM and their relationship. For instance the CIM states that its elements should be related to each other.
If that is not the case the transition path might lead to a‘wrong'image of the future, i e.,
Since the use of futures research in innovation networks is not yet mature it can be expected that the application of the CIM to the cases reveals that the focal networks have not explicated
Thus, the cases will show different levels of networked foresight. In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized,
The CIM provides a common basis for the analysis of the three cases and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases.
In the case evaluations three different levels are used (visualized as gray-shading) for each component of the CIM to visualize their preference concerning openness and network orientation of futures research activities.
It is important to note that the levels in the illustration do not rate or reflect business performance of the organizations.
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
We reuse these three roles to categorize the individual networked foresight activities in the three cases below.
4. Cases: Rijkswaterstaat, EICT, EIT ICT Labs In the following section three cases are presented. In each case a brief introduction is followed by a description according to the components of the CIM. 4. 1. Case 1:
Rijkswaterstaat WINN Rijkswaterstaat (RWS, part of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment) is responsible for the management and implementation of the Dutch road and water infrastructure.
Thus, RWS is continuously searching for innovations in their Fig. 1. Level 1 of the Cyclic Innovation Model:
and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current
The future of WINN itself was addressed not within these activities (Table 3). 4. 2. Case 2:
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
briefly described and their character stated. 4. 3. Case 3: EIT ICT Labs The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) is the latest attempt of the European commission (EC) to increase European innovation performance.
this case) were selected. They were supposed to be fully operational by October 2010. The EIT governing board developed an overarching Strategic Table 4 Networked foresight activities at the EICT Gmbh.
plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
In the case of the EIT ICT Labs, the EC's call for KICS and the internal ambitions of multiple companies resulted in the shared vision of an integrated organization designed to drive innovation in ICT that would benefit from the different yet complementary assets and resources of industrial and academic partners.
Transition path For this case, a transition path has yet to develop due to its relatively short existence of three years at this point.
and foster cooperation that are expected to give rise to super-additional effects in the best case 59.4.3.5.
and their type is stated. 5. Evaluation of the cases In this section, we evaluate the three cases,
followed by a cross-case evaluation. 5. 1. Case 1: Rijkswaterstaat WINN The vision of the WINN program has developed into
what is worded now as‘‘joint search for durable new solutions for water''among various interested and related parties in The netherlands (leaflet).
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
cohesion within the network and quality of results could be increased further. 5. 2. Case 2:
, Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS), the European Alliance for Innovation and the EIT KICS (case 3). Thus, the image of the future for EICT seems to be need in of an update. 8 The partner structure of EICT of a research institute, a university
(&) & Contract partners 1. 3 Business case analyses & (&) Contract partners 1. 4 Series of future workshops & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 73 5. 3. Case 3: EIT ICT Labs The EIT ICT Labs have an elaborate mission
In contrast, strategic guidance, the assessment and repositioning of the innovation portfolio and vision creation are limited mostly to the network itself.
& Contract partners 2. 6 Business case analysis & (&) Contract partners 2. 7 Networking on demand & Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
and guide the future of the network. 5. 4. Cross-case evaluation 5. 4. 1. Toward networked foresight within the three cases In Fig. 5 the classification of the foresight activities in terms scope
and foresight role are shown on a grid for each case. Additionally, the shape of the boxes represents the type of activity in the sense of long-term program,
When comparing the three cases based on the earlier descriptions and analyses and the illustration above the following observations can be made.
and reposition the portfolio of WINN and to provide strategic guidance for the program; second, to pool
The activities in this case can be described as project-based networked foresight. The EIT ICT Labs are a network as such.
Foresight activities are longer-term activities than in the other two cases. They are either completely open to outsiders or limited to the network partners.
When recalling the application of the Cyclic Innovation Model to the three cases at least three issues are noticeable:
When combining the differences in networked foresight with further research on collaboration in innovation at least two known‘process archetypes of open innovation'are observable in the cases:
1. In all three cases the foresight activities are used as information sources for initializing new activities internally within the network partner organizations (outside-in.
2. In all three cases the network partners contribute information to the foresight activities independently from further use therein (inside-out.
and EIT ICT Labs cases the results are used for updating and refining product roadmaps and corporate strategy internally within the network partner organizations (outside-in).
Additionally, foresight activities in the WINN and EIT ICT Labs cases are used to provide information for guiding,
and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
Fig. 5. Foresight activities from the cases matched to foresight roles, scope and type of activity.
The three cases the WINN program managed by Rijkswaterstaat, EICT and the EIT ICT Labs implicate that networked foresight is indeed in use.
It should be noted that this article is based on data from three cases. Although these give important impulses for research addressing foresight
the case of Procter & gamble, R&d Management 36 (2006) 333 346.8 R. Rohrbeck, K. Ho lzle, H. G. Gemu nden, Opening up for competitive advantage how Deutsche telekom
a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips, On s-curves
a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis,
A more recent case is the Horizonscan of the Environment Research Fundeers Forum in the UK (Environment Research Fundeers Forum, 2007.
meaning they may play a useful role in informing research agenda settiing In the case of The netherlands and the UK,
(and cannot) deliver in each case. Cooperation The use of joint scan data at the European level could offer a useful way of addressing the complex challenges the world
along with the evidence each side draws on to make its case, rather than seeking to choose one view over another
In our case, these were mainly sub-dimensions of two sustainability dimensions, namely of the‘sociial and the‘economic'ones.
These two dimensiion are regarded as particularly important and controversial in the case of the creative content sector.
at work in the process of content creation, distribution and consumption in the case of video games. A similar analysis was carried out for books, music, audiovisual and cultural spaces.
or crosscutting technological solutions as in the case of seamless (IPR-based) networks or mobile communications.
In this case, particular attention was paid to the implicattion of the exercise on European research policy priorities.
as in our case, to generate knowledge and insights to feed directly into formulation of current-day policy options.
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government? How was done that?
In all cases these successful functions were housed within a ministry responsible for innovation. In Ireland this was the Industry Ministry
In all cases, the new function was bringing much needed methodologies that had previously not been exploited fully within the mainstream departments of the government.
Neither case was suited well to the collaborative nature of the foresight process, and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
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