This covers technologgica approaches such as use of mosquito nets and insecticides in the case of malaria.
Current S&d includes diagnostic testing and monitoring of cases by persoonplace/time characteristics. Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
In some cases diagnoosti technology also plays a crucial role in the prevention of spread. Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire
it was shown also that in some cases there is still a discrepancy between theory and practiice Although in theory many projects start from a user-and pull-driven perspective,
given that in most cases only a restricted dataset of firm characteristics is available. Secondly, due to a lack of information, potential knowledge spillovers are taken not into consideration (this also happens
+-positive (negative) and statistically significant effect at 10%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 67 find a positive policy effect but in some cases
Thus, in most cases it is not possible to make a proper comparison of these states.
which in this case is restricted up to a certain value e (maximum admissibbl difference of the propensity scores):
Also in this case the choice of the bandwidth was dependent on the distribution of the propensity scores in the adjustment cells.
In this case all available observatiion of the control group are given also a specific weight. This weight is high for small‘distances'betwwee a pair of firms,
We tested if the difference in the former case was significcantl larger than the difference in the latter case.
If this was the case, we interpreted this result as empirrica evidence that the impact of the CTI subsidies was correlated positively to the magnitude of the subsidy quotient.
i e. for 24 differren cases. With one exception(‘importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view';‘
i e. those firms that were seleccte (out of the pool of non-subsidized firms) by the matching method used (in this case:‘
The figures in the latter case are systematically larger than in the former case, reflecting the fact that firms with a high innovation performance are seleccte by the applied method to match subsidized firms that are expected to be highly innovative in ordde to obtain grants.
For the outputorieente indicators the differences vary significantly between only 9 11%for the qualitative selfassesssmen of the technical importance of the innovattion introduced and a threefold to fivefold larger magnitude in the case of sales of products new to the market.
Hence, for these cases we have some empirical evidence that the impact on innovation performance is dependent on the relative magnitude of the subsiid granted.
In the case of the CTI policy investigated in this paper, it is questionabbl if an amount of about CHF60 million in 2004 (meanwhile CHF100 150 million of additional R&d support per annum) could have a discernible impact on an economy that invested about CHF19 billion in R&d in 2004.
the case of Eastern Germaany Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21 (2), 226 236.
a long-term analysis for The swiss case. Science and Public Policcy 33 (3), 205 216. Nelson, R R 1959.
The case of the Small Business Innovation research Programme. Rand Journal of Economics, 31 (1), 82 100.0 2 2 15/16 1-()i k N P P a
Drawing on evidence from three cases on foresight processes in research programming they highlight both the value that FTA can bring to the programming process,
Traditionally, the Fraunhofer R&d portfolio has been technologydriiven A corporate Future topics process has been establisshe in order to foster a needs-oriented approach.
This requires time, especially in the case of complex situations. Again, this is another challenge, as different stakeholders usually have divergent perspectives for defining the best route towards the desired future.
In most cases, the intangibles being generated are not clear to all the participants, nor is there a particular list of them
FINEP's portfolio includes: funding oriented to 250. C. C. Nehme et al. Table 1. Theme Objectives Focus Initial phase Main phase Commitment phase Energy Establishment of R&d priority agenda,
In the case of FINEP, the challenge of promoting out-of-the-box thinking was very complex.
'as conceived in this case, is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events, delimiting the scope of the observation dimensions
In this case, several ways of gathering stakeholders'perceptions were employed. In order to hear the opinion of government authorities and representative leaders from industry and the national system of ST&I, about the system itself, FINEP, its performmanc and future expectations,
The case for integral foresight',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar: From Theory to Practice, Brasilia, Brazil, 16 7 december 2010.
the Case 973 Program (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 589 686 800 897 983
In some cases they may even be encouraged by the government, letting experts point to problem areas
we find a broader and more encompassing portfolio of priorities, as well as broader consultation and mobilization of interests behind different goals.
Two features of priority-setting stand out in the Chinese case. Planning in the straightforward sense is one defining element, a heritage from the post-WORLD WAR II planning exercises.
The case of Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems (1945 2000) Chao-chen Chung1 1manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK.
(i e. pharmaceuticals and agriculture) provide an interesting case for our discussiion Historical records for the period 1945 2000 in Taiwan clearly show the process through which the three innovation systems,
and two biotechnology-related sectors as an empirical case because that case is discussed seldom in the existing literatuure Modern biotechnology,
we select Taiwan as our empirical case and focus on the development in the period 1945 2000.
Based on the empirical case of Taiwan we raise four interesttin issues which deepen our understanding of the concept of NSTISS.
As shown by the case of Taiwan in the pharmaceuticca biotechnology innovation system local SMES led the innovation and manufacturing.
And in the majority of cases it was the public research organizations such as the DCB, which played an intermediary role between the universities and pharmaceutical companies.
In the case of Taiwan there is no‘set of national institutions'directed towards the overall national innovation system.
In the case of biotechnollogy a government should have different sets of policies for the development of pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology.
the case of biotechnology innovation networks',Research policy, 37: 430 45. Dr. Chip. 2010), Products. Dr. Chip:<
otherwise have been the case (Cagnin et al. 2008). This role most closely corresponds to the innovation functions of knowledge diffusion, mobilisaatio of resources,
In the latter case decision-makers should work together with specialists, potential users and concerrne representatives of civil society.
On the other hand, ERA NET+is a new option added to the ERA NET scheme in FP7 allowing, in a limited number of cases,
<http://worldbenefit. case. edu/research/paperseries/?/p=21>accessed Apr 2011. Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R.,eds,(2008) Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy.
Hoffman, M.,Frederick, R. E. and Schwartz, M. S. eds) Business Ethics Readings and Cases in Corporate Morality, 4th edn.
and the medium-to long-term impacts associated with them, for example in the case of climate change or environmental change.
for instance in the case of external FTA organisation that provide semi-institutionalised FTA services (e g. parliamentary TA organisations,
but there have been only very few cases of networks being able to tackle the consequences of,
In the case of parliamentary TA, the argument in favour of dedicated future intelligence can be made in a very straightforward manner.
Analytical framework and empirical cases in Europe and beyond, VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Working papers 134,2009.
In the case of the ICSU exercise, the various forecasts developed for all of the Global agendas and arenas:
In this case, the long-term stands for a period of over 25 years. Secondly, TM accentuates the interrelatedness of societal and technological systems and the multiplicity of actors.
in the case of IPRM one could talk about a process perspective. Top-down information might be utilized during the process,
In some cases adopting new technologies is very slow due to high switching costs. In other cases, the market does not develop
because a pricing mechanism for the benefits is missing. This is common, for example, in environmental innovation.
However, it depends on the case whether the particular enabling roadmaps are necessary or whether it is sufficient to map the enablers at the level of a systemic transformation roadmap.
as in the case of the health sector, or the Innovation policy roadmapping. 181 system could also refer to a convergence of sectors, for example in the case of functional foods.
The key idea of a transformation roadmap is to connect the development of technologies and innovations to a wider societal sphere.
in some cases it is enough to map just the enabling technologies, yet in some cases the market development and actors play more imporrtan roles.
In the first level, technology-based solutions, specific developments of technological solutions are depicted on a level that is assessed as necessary.
but in some cases it is also possible to map the convergence of enabling technologies. The advantage of this practice is that the enabling technologies are assessed also as evolving constructs
Innovation policy roadmapping. 183 4. 2 Outline of the transformation roadmap In this case, the roadmap knowledge was crystallized in a transformation roadmap (Fig. 3). The working vision for the green and intelligent buildings roadmap,
The case example consists of a transformation roadmap (see Fig. 4) and a technology roadmap (see Fig. 5). The roadmapping process was completed in three working phases.
and in this case the most fundamental, level is the systemic policies. The first of the systemic policies emphassize the management of a complex of information systems, with a special emphasis on information transparennc and security.
horizontal and temporal co-ordination and apply them to three cases of foresight processes in connection with transnational research programming.
Section 3 applies the approach to some empirical observations on recent cases of transnational programming.
or become a replacement policy framework in some fields (e g. in the case of new EU Member States).
and facilitating the different functions of programming described in Table 2. 3. Empirical observations on recent foresights in connection with transnational research programming In this section we describe three European cases of transnatiiona research programming in terms of the role foresight
the cases are linked then to the dimensiion of co-ordination identified in Section 2. Based on the observations in this section,
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
The combination of cases was selected to provide a mix of cases at varying stages of progress
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman specific processes and roles of foresight in each of these cases is given below and in Fig. 2. 3. 1. 1 Wood Wisdom-net24.
The main role of foresight in this case is to support the joint programme preparation of Member States
The main role of foresight in this case is to develop, maintain and update the strategic research agenda (SRA),
and Welfare (SCAR CWG) take it forward after the EMIDA ERA NET project has ended. 28 Table 4. Description of selected cases
and respective foresight roles Case Partners Timing Goal Role of foresight Wood Wisdom-net20 18 partners from 8 European countries 2004 8 Establish
In this case foresight supports the identification of specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term poliic measures
and engagement. 3. 2 Conclusions on the cases Our examination of the three initiatives indicates that foresiigh activities may alleviate some barriers to transnational programming by way of addressing systemic, horizontal, vertical and temporal co
and management style to the case-specific context and to particular requirements of the participating organisations and related stakeholders.
Based on experiences within the above three cases some initial conclusions can be drawn on the way in which foresiigh can support the four co-ordination challenges identified in Section 2. 3. 2. 1 Alignment of research systems.
Foresight supports the alignment of different research systems by Figure 2. Project phases of foresight in each of three cases selected. 198.
drawing on the cases, and then explore more in detail how foresight can play a role as an integratto of different functions of transnational research programming.
In the Urban Europe case, an example of modularity is the preparation of a pilot call to collect anticipatory intelligence,
the establishment of a small foresight team prepared to be adaptive and flexible depending on the changing conditions. search for a balance between planned foresight activities and expected additional non-defined activities of the FPU In the Urban Europe case,
This approach is illustrated by the Urban Europe case, where a pilot call is planned to collect additional intelligence on future trends and scenarrio and support the construction of stakeholder communities and platforms.
especially in cases where a culture of participation and of transnational research and innovation policy co-ordination is lacking.
The case description is based on Brummer et al. 2008). ) 21. EMIDA ERA NET stands for‘Coordination of European research on emerging and major infectious diseases of livestock'.
'The case description is based on EMIDA Description of Work (2009. 22. This initiative builds on the work of the SCAR. 23.
Case description based on Urban Europe (2011. 24. The case description is based on Brummer et al. 2008).
) 25. Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process. 26. The assessment criteria for researcher's were:
Case description based on EMIDA Description of Work (2009. 28. To this end terms of reference (Ooms 2009) for its establishment have been drafted,
Case description based on Urban Europe (2011. The first experiences with practical implementation followiin this report may look somewhat different than described in this report.
however, too early to draw any conclusions on possible discrepancies between planning and implementtatio of foresight activities in this case. 30.
This is the case for example with the horizon scanning services in the UK. 1 Horizon scanning also fulfils similar functions with scenario building.
In most cases it will also be necessary to track the secondary signals in the near future to see
This may particularly be the case with issues which include controversies or require coordination and collaboration across different and segmennte policies In the cases where conflicts may arise even small investments in examining the issues may be blocked.
Overall, potential wild cards and emerging issues, including their early warning signals, have to fight for attention in the political discourse except for situations in which they fit
and links between keywords and stakeholdders These cases require more examination by analyst. In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information As reported in survey responses
The cases of agri-biotechnology and mobile phoning',Science Technology and Human Values, 35: 783 811.
Especially in the case of weak signals and wild cards, sense-making builds on the scanners'creative and heuristic capabilities to detect meaningful observations in the presence of scattered or no historical evidence (Dervin 1998.
3. Case: Facing the future In 2008 9, the BEPA of the EC organized a series of foresiigh activities (European communities 2009;
JRC-IPTS proposed that a robust portfolio modelling (RPM) screening process (Ko nno la et al. 2007;
which belong to all non-dominated portfollios defined (in an approximate sense) as those collecttion of issues for which no other portfolio would yield a higher overall value for all stated weight information..
Exterior issues that belong to no such portfolios..Borderline issues which are in some but not all non-dominated portfolios.
Three different analyses were conducted to highlight different aspects of relevance: mean-oriented analysis, variance-oriented analysis and rare event-oriented analysis. In each analysis, attention was given particularly to the top-10 issues with the highest core index values among all
A. 2007)‘ Preference pogramming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection',European Journal of Operational Research, 181: 1488 505.
The case for and nature of foresight 2. 0',Futures, 42: 282 94. Nonaka, I. 1994)‘ A dynamic theory of organizational knowleedg creation',Organization science, 5: 14 37.
But in these and many other cases (Popcorn 1993,1999) of megatrend discussions, the definition of the megatrends was explained not
and intensifies cooperation between institutes to fully utilise the strength of its broad R&d portfolio with various measures.
Within the groups, institutes plan and strategically align their respective R&d portfolios. Another platform of cooperation is built by the 20 Fraunhofer alliances, in
This approach started with a portfolio generation on the one hand, and the aim to identify important future fields for the Fraunhofer Society on the other hand.
their common conceptual background can be characterised as portfolio-oriented and technologydriiven the starting point of the processes was technologies and technological approaches.
or update the Fraunhofer Society's thematic portfolio. Papers on foresight studies or specific technological R&d trends were analysed
and assess the future relevance of certain technologies by extrapolating the current R&d portfolio to the future.
because within the Fraunhofer Society with its 60 institutes, there is a broad portfolio with a huge variety of scientific disciplines, applications and knowledge in general available.
In this case, no complicated or sophisticated solution is sought, but rather projects with potentially high impacts on the societal questions of the future.
Each technological solution approach was rated in terms of its fit with the Fraunhofer R&d portfolio and clustered into solution fields.
and technology organisations in Europe have their specific approaches to Fraunhofer future markets. 241 defining their R&d portfolio.
Therefore, they have to discuss their portfolio plans with the relevant Dutch ministries. A four-year strategic plan is defined in an interactive manner with the ministries.
VTT, the Finnish research organisation, has a rather centralised research and technology development portfolio development. Although VTT is a governmental agency
the government itself is involved not in the portfolio planning, but target agreements have to be negotiated every year.
The SINTEF research and technology development portfolio is defined at the level of the single institutes. This means that their focus is not on providing overall large solutions to the grand challenges.
But in most cases, one single institute took the lead in the problemsollvin with a certain technological focus and a solution concept.
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