This EMA use of the model is reported below. 3. 1. 2. Uncertainties The future evolution of the extraction
The presented model allows exploring alternative evolutions across the various uncertainties. Table 1 gives a high level overview of the key uncertainties that are taken into consideration.
3. Evolution of market price for a 1000 runs. 424 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 3. 2
but are triggered by the evolution of external conditions. Thus, a new runway is built only if there is sufficient demand,
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures
their possible evolution and the consistency of projection bundles 28. Usually 460 E. Schirrmeister P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
Furthermore, the editors of this Special issue, each from their own vantage point, have been following the evolution of the disparate fields brought together by FTA over the years.
or to account for the actual evolution of industrial research and innovation systems. On the foresight side not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods,
International Differences in Work-related Values, Sage, Beverly hills, CA, 1980.21 M. Minkov, G. Hofstede, The evolution of Hofstede's doctrine, Cross Cultural Management:
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
The starting point for this study was the observation that this very popular medium has been the subject of rapid technological evolution over the last few years.
Another crucial evolution concerns the growing convergence of TV and the Internet and the introduction of new hardware systems and services.
This technical perspective however does not take the evolution of TV as a medium from the user's perspective into account
and does not necessarily represent the possible, probable and desired evolution from a user point of view.
Also stressed was the importance of the (ongoing) evolution towards multi-screen content consumption, meaning that the same content will be accessed from different screens including TV, PC, smartphone, tablet,
Lente, The Sociology of expectations in Science and Technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (2006) 285 298.18 P. den Hertog, R. Smits, The Co-evolution of Innovation theory, Innovation Practice
The Silent (r) evolution? A Qualitative Study on the Domestication of Interactive Digital Television in Flanders,(Unpublished doctoral thesis), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2011.32 A. Følstad, Living Labs for Innovation and Development of Information
an examination of frontline perspectives, Journal of American Academy of Business 11 (2007) 11 16. 16 O. Furrer, H. Thomas, A. Goussevskaia, The structure and evolution of the strategic management field:
P. van der Duin, The evolution of innovation management towards contextual innovation, European Journal of Innovation Management 11 (2008) 522 538.16 P. van der Duin, R
Strategic management Journal 21 (2000) 1105 1121.31 A. Sood, G. J. Tellis, Technological evolution and radical innovation, Journal of Marketing 69 (2005) 152 168.32 G
ICT evolution has become so fast and pervasive that it is increasingly difficult to predict the emergence of new technologies or the evolution of existing ones,
the EPIS project foressa the design and implementation of a combinatiio of methods to explore the future evolution of the creative content industries
which seemed best suited to deal with the uncertainties which characterise the sector and its evolution.
a prospective study dealing with the future evolution of the creative content industtries She has worked also for many years in the field of electronic communications policy and regulation at Europeea level.
In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
The varying degrees of particippatio enabled us to handle better the complexity and uncertainties regarding the evolution of the creatiiv content sector,
and user behavviou influencing the evolution of the sector. To start with we proceeded to define the scope of our research by analysing the characteristics of creative content goods. As mentioned earlier,
The overall objective of the FTA had been to provide the policy-making process with strategic intelligence by taking a prospective view towards the evolution of ICT and
The Future Evolution of the Creative Content Industries: Three Discussion papers. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicatiion of the European communities (Scientific and Technical research series, EUR 23633 EN.
Technology Roadmappping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26.
The application of fta in large research-based organisations in developing both their own strategic orientation and those of their clients, can offer wider lessons for both the organisational integratiio of FTA and the identification and continued evolution
but as necessary evolutions to keep pace with wicked problems and challenges. There is also an obvious need to adapt to
Figure 2. Evolution of funding to FINEP, 2000 10.252. C. C. Nehme et al. 5. 1 Premises There were two basic assumptions:.
So far, scholarly interest has focused on the overall evolution and design of China's science and technology (S&t system (Ke 2004;
Evolution, institutional structuure and trajectory',Research policy, 40: 917 31. Lv, W. 2007)‘ Enhancing the basic role of knowledge innovattio in the innovation system',China Development Review, 9: 38 47.
Moreover, to understand the evolution of the new innovation system we not only examine the components of the innovation system,
Section 3 analyzes the evolution of the Taiwanese innovation systems for biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and agriculture through the lens of the configuration of the three innovation systems.
The evolution of biotechnology and the two sectors before 2000 in fact deeply influences the development after 2000.
We discuss the evolution of the pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system in Section 3. 1 and the evolution of the agricultural biotechnology innovation system in Section 3. 2. 3. 1 The evolution of the Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system
each policy directed towards pharmaceutical biotechnology had its own historical background and changed with the evolution of pharmaceuticals and biotechnnology The Eight Key Industries policy,
Only in the late 1990s did the government start to support the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnnolog through supporting the innovation of new herbaceous medicines. 3. 2 Evolution of the Taiwanese agricultural biotechnology innovation system 3. 2
and may each have a characteristic path of co-evolution with the NSTIS. In the case of Taiwan there is no‘set of national institutions'directed towards the overall national innovation system.
the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology',Industrial and Corporate Change, 13: 815 49.
Instead, they highlight co-evolution, multi-dimensionality, compleexit and multi-actor processes, conditions that, it will be argued below,
and/or the articulating widely shared visions that steer evolutions along desirable paths. As noted earlier,
taking into account the wider institutional setting and co-evolution of different governance modes. Building on three dimensions (transformation types, governance modes,
and disruptive developmeent represent the most recent shift in the evolution of FTA. With regard to the rationales underlying the evolutiio of FTA,
A number of crosscutting observations can be drawn on the current evolution of FTA, on emerging requirements and possible responses to them. 3. 2. 1 Observation 1:
Based on this, a framework of analysis was developed for tracing the evolution of FTA systems. Empirical research highlights a diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems in practice,
The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.
which trends over the next 20 years are more or less clear at least in their direction of evolution, if not in their precise impacts, as follows:.
It can also provide a more nuanced perspective of the temporal sequencing of the evolution of technology and innovation,
Historically, research policies have emerged through development paths that reflect the societal contexts of their path-dependent technoinstittutiona co-evolution.
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
2010)‘ A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25:1 7. Sutherland, W. J.,Fleishman, E.,Mascia, B.,Pretty
, J. and Rudd, M. 2011)‘ Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy',Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2: 238 47.
2011)‘ Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26:10 6. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
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