may

May

April (35)
August (33)
December (302)
February (133)
January (33)
July (55)
June (78)
March (83)
May (198)
Month (43)
November (65)
October (69)
September (104)

Forecasting and Assessment Methodst that was held in Seville on 13 14 may 2004, organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of European commission's Directorate General Joint research Centre.

one may opt for robust solutions in terms of insurance, built-in fire protection, acquisition of fire alarm and sprinkler systems etc.

in a way useful also for non-experts in innovation research, convey the notion that the complex innovation system logic discussed above may develop over time in alternative, qualitatively different, ways.

This work may also be supported usefully by (normally simple) simulation models. It is not uncommon that the scenario ideas derived at the workshop have to be modified considerably at this stage,

While the general process model outlined above may serve as an orientation, the question remains open of how to design AF processes that are in line with the specific situation of a country.

The New approach, defined in a Council Resolution of May 1985, represents an innovative way of technical harmonisation.

because the innovation chain is precarious and may collapse. Flexibility is attractive for developing sustainable innovation chains

Change 8 may 1999) 173 182.7 P. Groenveld, Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Res. Technol. Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.

Manage. 48 (2 may 2001) 132 143.12 S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:

however, when dealing with the attainment of generic goals that may or may not have been identified as specific programme goals.

networks and actor alignment Given the peculiar nature of the task at hand, namely the search for diverse impacts (from changes in social capital to more informed publics and better networking) that may

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.10 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes,

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.18 Technopolis, et al. Using Logic models, The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:

e g. the harsh critique by a former British minister of Education and Skills published in The Guardian on 10 may 2003,

The history demonstrates that the first introduction of the page was 23 may 2008. The first release by Microsoft of a beta version of the browser incorporating the new standards was 5 March 2008.

A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap

This may indicate risks that have to be considered before implementing the solution. The lower circle calls for some caution in discarding these options

(i e. balanced) basis. The location of options in Fig. 3 may now be interpreted as follows: a coincidence of social and sustainability assessments is given

risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.

and to create knowledge to help decision making in defining management strategies concerning the changes the future may cause.

This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida

1999.42 JRC and IPTS FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight guide in http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/4 methodology/framework. htm (read May 28th 2009).

43 Arlington Institute. http://www. arlingtoninstitute. org/(read May 28th 2009. 44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,

/Read May 28th 2009. 45 Futuríbles, THE Strategic Environment for Companies: Guideline Scenarios General Summary, 2004 http://www. futuribles. com/pdf/Strategicenvironment. pdf. Read 28th 2009.

13 may 2004; received in revised form 24 october 2004; accepted 1 november 2004 Abstract This paper describes some important frontiers of futures research with the aim of identifying new opportunities for improving the value and utility of the field.

and challenges that may give new vitality to futures research. Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking

The information and topics gained in these processes may also be interesting for other actors in the innovation system.

The process of doing so may persuade key decision makers of the need for further action.

of important influences that may shape the future of research and indirectly society. It is far from clear that the sponsors of Foresight studies,

'In this context, inclusivity needs to create an appreciation of those wider matters that may influence a nation or a region;

The notion underlying expert consultation is that the consultors select the consultees according to rules that may

and how these may co-evolve with each other. This paper presents a research project that took the recent activities in

and risks that may become reality as nanotechnology matures. It is uncertain what sort of sectors will be impacted

whilst constraining those that may cause harm. But the potential breakthrough nature of nanotechnologies as enablers of radically new applications may mean a complex reconfiguration of the environments that a nanotechnology innovation may traverse during its‘lifetime'from concept to well embedded technology in our society.

and deep case research 4 into scenario narratives which place emphasis on the how paths to the future may unfold

and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.

technology platforms and institutional entrepreneurship, Paper Presented at the Triple Helix Conference, Turin, May 18 21 2005.40 D. K. R. Robinson, A. Rip, V. Mangematin, Technological agglomeration

New technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, 13 14 may, Seville, Spain. EU DG Research. 2005. Final Report.

Harvard Business Review, no. 33 (May June: pp. 79 91. Reger, G. 2001. Technology foresight in companies:

New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, 13 14 may, Sevilla, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014

the role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities, 13 14 may 2002, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.

Suite 230, Norcross, GA, 30071, USA Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 11 october 2004;

even if this may cause a certain degree of unpredictability and cause management challenges. In contrast, exclusive stakeholder engagement refers to expressly controlled stakeholder participation that may be driven,

and coalitions that may reflect rivalling visions or even incompatible perspectives on the future (Könnölä,

Priority setting may, however, decrease the diversity of options that could challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs 29

e g. 35) may create pathdependdencie and locking-out alternative technological options 36. Here, Foresight can also contribute to the creative restructuring

and opening up may be useful to avoid early lock in into dominant paradigms that may later prove less fruitful.

The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;

This may exist in advance (for example the current headings used for funding) or may itself be the result of a process.

The process is typically a broader sociopolitical interaction of supply side technology or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case

and may miss crucial emerging attributes of research and research actors in the knowledge society''.''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors.

and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,

which then may evolve to become cheaper and more effective such that they can be rolled out to other markets.

regulators of potential technological and/or socioeconomic situations which regulation may promote; and builders of clusters or platforms of the various kinds of linkages which can bind them together in future market and technology development. 5. Conclusion:

and hence may enable also otherwise adversary parties to learn together and search for common ground for long-term agendas.

there are always factors that lie outside of these models that may intervene. In the case in question

whose knowledge of the future may well be far less than omniscient, and whose acts of creation are undertaken for the purpose of learning.

and communication (these may use communications media as well as face-to-face meetings), and wider networking activities. Discussions of knowledge management,

or may simply imply such an account (which an observer equipped with relevant knowledge will be able to reconstruct).

The agents in question may well make use of technological aids and texts notably whiteboards and flip-charts on which diagrams

and may involve several dozen participants. Larger workshops employ‘‘break out groups''of say 6 12 people exploring different subscenarios or aspects of scenarios in detail.

and other tangible outputs that may enter into the processes of the sponsor and other stakeholders,

though this may require careful design and careful management of IT system designers who may lean more toward TKM frameworks.

One may argue that citizens who are given the opportunity to be informed effectively; to understand and to have a say on new technological choices in appropriate settings,

particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities? Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,

but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.

Again, to be able to embody there types of wild cards into some scenarios could be a provocative and rewarding exercise to test some of the leverage points that may impact change

and may well resort to other guides to the future, or apply them (as we have seen with scenario planning) with little comprehension of their essential components.

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011 illustrated the existing variety of FTA APPROACHES to address structural

(and will never‘‘settle down'')a peak may become worthless compared to others and the taxi driver may go out of business (selection).

Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping

In May 2003 a prototype of 10 Gb is ready and produced by standard semiconductor processes 28.

Q In May 2003 Nantero 28 states: bcreating this enormous array of suspended nanotubes using standard semiconductor processes brings us much closer to our end goal of mass producing NRAM chips.

Nantero Press release (May 2003. 29 Nantero, Nantero's Dr. Thomas Rueckes garners awards and acknowledges company on track for NRAM development.

Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.

However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously.

2. identify and assess change trends that may affect sustainable development; and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development.

They mostly provide general guidelines about sustainable development that may or may not be followed by local governments. Municipal policies are implemented strictly through norms and regulations.

In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,

moreover, may also affect the application of fta to legal research. In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,

and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced

. 36 40, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004;

Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. Hames, R. 2011b. Feedback on the 2011 international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis.

Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011

Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO

In practice, simple tinkering may also be important. Schön (1987,31) illustrated such a process by recounting Edmund Carpenter's description of the Eskimo sculptor patiently carving a reindeer bone,

For example, ageing may become a‘grand challenge 'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,

Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.

Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935. In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.

Dagens Industri, May 11. http://di. se/Artiklar/2008/5/11/41905/Mannensoomuppfann-sms-et/Whitehead, A n. 1978.

The paper sets out to pay much attention to the situations that may confront FTA practitioners,

All this may or may not involve formal processes for bringing together quantitative and qualitative information that goes beyond the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 757 conventional‘synthesis report'.

'The latter may, or may not, recognise the nature of the expertise and uncertainties involved revealed in the next section. 4. FTA and subjective behaviour:

that may include prioritising important areas of intervention, though prioritisation is underdeveloped an art. The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative

For that appreciation to return the current global circulation climate models (GCM's) may need to be seen as simply a module in a much bigger global model.

10.1177/1350507612443208, April 30, http://mlq. sagepub. com/(accessed May 31, 2012. Rumsfeld, D. 2002. Department of defense news briefing, February 12, http://www. defense. gov/transcripts/transcript. aspx?

but lack insight into the details that may hinder the realisation. For them, the possibilities appear as facts.

‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.

This may support the emergence of competing coalitions. Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation,

thus, are not to be seen as descriptive statements that may or may not be true. Once they are voiced

and the consumer electronics and ICT businesses, on the other hand, are suited well to illustrate what types of uncertainty a firm may face in its external environment

and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.

Foresight can also expose a range of equally likely paths into the future that may permit more insightful decisions to be made by a business.

Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 15 september 2004; accepted 16 september 2004 Abstract Sandia National Laboratories conducts a variety of research projects each year under its Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program.

Work in this stage should take into account competing technologies that may hold advantages over the target NEST under study.

and may require a total review by experts. For such themes with less matching, an out-of-the-box discussion is needed on the contributions that science

and perspectives that may collide with the conclusions drawn from the most recent foresight results. In other words an organization might have to adapt its structure again and again to optimize its ability to absorb each round of foresight results

since government institutions need to be careful about raising expectations that may remain unfulfilled. On a positive note

At this stage it is possible to map out in a first iteration the disputes that may hinder the strategic dialogues By its nature,

''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville. Fisher, R. and Ury, W. 1991), Getting to Yes Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Penguin, New york, NY.

''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville. Welp, M.,de la Vega-Leinert, A.,Stoll-Kleemann, S. and Jaeger, C. C. 2006),‘Science-based stakeholder dialogues:

this may provide a CTI value. Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,

Received 14 may 2011 Accepted 18 september 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change

as well as provide guidance for the identification of the features that may help the selection of the appropriate set of tools

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 2011,12 13 may. 7 L. Gao, A l. Porter, J. Wang, S. Fang, X. Zhang, T. Ma, W. Wang, L. Huang, Technology life cycle analysis method

Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 9 july 2012 Accepted 3 september 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 The FTA COMMUNITY relies on a set of disciplines and methods,

This section elaborates on these aspects by discussing some of the barriers that may hamper a deeper integration of quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS. 4. 1. Barriers stemming from an epistemological divide in social sciences The main barrier to a full methodological integration is epistemological

The shortage of examples of full methodological integration (as shown in Section 3 may also reflect deeply ingrained cultural differences hindering good communication between different epistemological communities.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 identification of the features that may help the organisers of FTA projects in the selection of the most appropriate set of tools (characterising

Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13 (2011) Seville, 2011, Available at: http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011%20%205-9%20%20hl%20%20

Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 22 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 To estimate the future development of one technology

State-of-the-art and new approaches Tessaleno C. Devezas Technological forecasting and Innovation theory Working group, University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal Received 13 may 2004;

2003 May) 50 59.31 R. V. Sole',et al. Selection, tinkering, and emergence in complex networks, SFI-Working Paper 02-07-029,2002. 32 S. Wolfram, A New Kind of Science, Wolfram Media, Inc.,2002.33 J. Goldenberg

Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 2 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 Developing strategies,

Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 12 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 29 october 2012 Exploratory Modeling

and even some base metals such as copper 19 22 and lead 23 may in a few decades become more difficult and expensive to mine and process,

12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping: the case of clean production, Technol.

Received 14 may 2011 Revised 25 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations.

and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.

but more willing to implement bold new policies that may result from a foresight exercise. The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time

The catalogue that resulted from Research2015 was presented in May 2008. The task of coining out the priorities that was identified in the catalogue was given to the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI.

Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.

navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:

The same may apply to the level of embedding with regard to the organisation and the organisational culture;

even if the process as a whole may then exhibit more inertia. By considering the above features in the design phase it is easier to manage the process according to plan.

Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case

and may help developers and innovators to not be biased technologically. In total, 11 (Lead) users matching the six distinct persona profiles were recruited for further qualitative exploration. 3 These 11 users participated in creative and imaginative home sessions in

and by an awareness of external developments that may influence the organization's future goals and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership

These may take place in the immediate business (or transacttion environment, but may also be broader social or regulatory trends.

There are many descriptions and definitions of horizon scanning in use. Here we give one based on definitions used in different horizon scanning prograamme in the UK and The netherlands.

and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.

What Broad Security Challenges May Canada Face by 2015? Technology foresight directorate of the office of the national science advisor.

It started with a general brainstorming on global trends and other socioeconomic considerations that may characterise the context in

and may therefore requuir policy measures or could at least have policy implications. In order to reach our objective we made use of another workshop,

New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.

New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.

The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei

New Technollog Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. World health organization 2006.

Mark. boden@ec. europa. eu. The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011, focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures

Shaping and Driving Structural and Systematic Transformations organised by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre (JRC-IPTS) was held in May 2011.

, 12 3 may 2011.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed March 2012.

which a good communication approach may help make the difference between good and bad final results.

However, attempting to understand how the future may unfold and dealing with the notion of‘possible futures'(Jouvenel 1967),

methods and tools that may fit the needs of the exercise better, to be mobilized. Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.

1. 2 Analytical assumptions On the basis of this discussion, we argue that research priority-setting may take the following (not mutually exclussive directions:

China Science and Technology indicators (2008) and from<http://www. sts. org. cn>accessed 20 may 2011.264.

and may continue to thwart the ambitiion of Chinese scientists to develop a more genuinely pluralist system of resource allocation.

>and<http://www. most. gov. cn/eng/programs1/200610/t20061009 36223. htm>accessed 20 may 2011.3. See OECD (2008:

. cn/tztg/P020060127327421562622. doc>accessed 20 may 2011.5. See<http://www. most. gov. cn/eng/programmes1/200610/t20061009 36224. htm>accessed 20 may 2011.6.

See<http://english people. com. cn/90001/6381319. html>accessed 20 may 2011.7. See<http://english people. com. cn/90001/6381319. html>accessed 20 may 2011.8.

Wu Y.‘Three suggestions to improve China's S&t policy',Guangming Daily, 14 may 2007, <http://www. gmw. cn/01gmrb/2007-05/14/content 605455. htm>accessed 20 may 2011.9.

The website was<http://gh. most. gov. cn>.>A key official and policy-maker of the MOST reported that more than 3, 000 people had registered at the website

and that hundreds of suggestions had been given by the public (Shi 2004) References Block, F. and Keller, M. eds)( 2011) State of Innovation:

U s. Government Technology policies, 1969 2008. Boulder, CO: Paradigm. Braun, D. 2008)‘ Organising the political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies',Science and Public policy, 35: 227 39.

Shi, D. 2004)‘ The policy-making of the medium-and long-term plan for S&t',<http://www. 93. gov. cn/kjxg/ghdt/ghdt16. htm>accessed 20 may 2011.

<http://www. uscc. gov/researchpapers/2011/USCC REPORT China's program for Science and technology modernization. pdf>accessed 25 may 2011. Suttmeier, R. P. 1980) Science, Technology and China's Drive for Modernization.

A view from the top',<http://www. fas. org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/stpol1. htm>accessed 25 may 2011.

'<http://scitech. people. com. cn/GB/12444910. html>accessed 20 may 2011. Zhou, P. and Leydesdorff, L. 2006)‘ The emergence of China as a leading nation in science',Research policy, 35:83 104.