months

Months

April (35)
August (33)
December (302)
February (133)
January (33)
July (55)
June (78)
March (83)
May (198)
Month (43)
November (65)
October (69)
September (104)

(DG JRC-IPTS), E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 20 february 2005 The contribution included in this special issue builds on material presented to the first EU US Scientific Seminar

Forecasting and Assessment Methodst that was held in Seville on 13 14 may 2004, organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of European commission's Directorate General Joint research Centre.

instead than few months by taking advantage of four factors enabling the QTIP technique: instant database access, analytical software, automated routines,

research, A-1220 Vienna, Austria Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 14 march 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning.

Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.

The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider

one may opt for robust solutions in terms of insurance, built-in fire protection, acquisition of fire alarm and sprinkler systems etc.

in a way useful also for non-experts in innovation research, convey the notion that the complex innovation system logic discussed above may develop over time in alternative, qualitatively different, ways.

This work may also be supported usefully by (normally simple) simulation models. It is not uncommon that the scenario ideas derived at the workshop have to be modified considerably at this stage,

While the general process model outlined above may serve as an orientation, the question remains open of how to design AF processes that are in line with the specific situation of a country.

Proceedings of the SCORE Workshop, Copenhagen, 20 21 april 2006, TNO, Delft, 2006.30 H. Van Zuylen, K. M. Weber, Opportunities and limitations of European innovation policy

, E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 1 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS

which are promoted by the European commission towards the establishment of the European Researcharea. Specifically, we report experiences froma recent consultation process that was organized withinwoodwisdom-Net (ERA NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new

opportunities in wood material science and engineering. This consultation process involved eighteen funding organizations fromeight European countries

These issues were assessed by Researchers and Industrial Table 1 Phases of the Woodwisdom-Net consultation process Task Participants Schedule 1. Solicitation of research issues Researchers Mid-july Mid-october‘05

2. Assessment of research issues Researchers December‘05 Mid-january‘06 3. Assessment of research issues Industrial leaders Three last weeks of January‘06 4. Initial

screening of research issues Project team January February‘06 5. Three one-day workshops for Researchers and Industrial leaders 10 12 Researchers and Industrial leaders

/workshop Mid-february,‘06 6. A one-day workshop for funding organizations Representatives from funding organizations End of March‘

The questionnaire was open from Mid-june 2005 until Mid-october 2005. In total, well over 200 Researchers from the participating countries submitted research issues. 3. 2. 2. 2. Assessment of research issues from the research perspective.

The questionnaire was open from December 2005 until Mid-january 2006. For each issue, Researchers were asked first to assess the issue with regard to Novelty (i e.,

The questionnaire was open in January 2006. Within each of the sub-areas 5 15 7 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/registration. htm. 8 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/task1. htm. 9 See http

In Mid-february, three workshops were organized to take stock of results fromthe Internet-based activities and to develop tentative recommendations about

Based on the results from all preceding phases, a workshop for funding organizations was organized at the end of March 2006 to examine these results and, more specifically,

D-10623 Berlin, Germany Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 19 october 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.

We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework.

The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science

The New approach, defined in a Council Resolution of May 1985, represents an innovative way of technical harmonisation.

In October 2003, the European commission addressed a programming mandate to CEN CENELEC and ETSI in the field of services,

in the final section we will present some results of a small-scale Delphi study among participants of an ITU (International Telecommunication Union) expert workshop on Adjusting Forecasting methods to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector organised in September 2004.

which the unlimited utilisation of high-capacity networks (150 Mbps) for around 15€/month or less is possible. 2012 3. 88 3. 73 2. 77 2. 73 3

Ex Post evaluation of Regulatory policies Proceedings from the OECD Expert Meeting September 2003, OECD (ed.),Paris:

, The netherlands Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 5 july 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.

Forecasts of the likely future development of S&t are generated; then research and development (R&d) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast.

But for new and Emerging s&t this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are articulated not yet.

Fourteen selected practitioners attended the workshop on 12 june 2006 in Amsterdam. Due to the aims and constraints of this paper we have to 529 D. K. R. Robinson,

because the innovation chain is precarious and may collapse. Flexibility is attractive for developing sustainable innovation chains

At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.

a young start-up company initiated in February 2006 with intentions to be the systems integrator of a lab-on-a-chip device focused on a specific application in the medical sector.

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 31 40.4 D. Barker, David J. H. Smith, Technology foresight using roadmaps, Long Range Plan. 28 (2

Change 8 may 1999) 173 182.7 P. Groenveld, Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Res. Technol. Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.

Change 6 (1997) 97 115.9 T. A. Kappel, Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future, J. Prod.

Manage. 48 (2 may 2001) 132 143.12 S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 47 52.15 K. Matzler, M. Rier, H. H. Hinterhuber, B. Renzl, C. Stadler, Methods and concepts

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 27 30.18 D. Rigby, Management tools and Techniques: A survey, Calif. Manage.

Manage. 49 (4 november 2002) 322 329.22 S. T. Walsh, Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study. The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol.

Manage. 49 (4 november 2002) 375 387.25 R. N. Kostoff, R. Boylan, G r. Simons, Disruptive technology roadmaps, Technol.

Karlsruhe, June 1999.30 A. Rip, T. Propp, R. Williams, G. Spinardi, P. Laredo, A. Delemarle, NEST-SSA 508929‘Assessment Tools for New and Emerging science

and Technology'(ATBEST) Final Activity Report, University of Twente, June 2005.31 D. K. R. Robinson, Identifying

the social-constructivist challenge, Berlin, 5th and 6th september (2005. 32 A. Rip, D. K. R. Robinson, Socio-technical paths as a multilevel phenomenon, exemplified in the domain of nanotechnology,

EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4. 33 J. J. Deuten, Cosmpolitanising Technologies:

. 75,1985, pp. 332 337.38 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.536 D. K. R. Robinson

18 july September 2006) Number 3 4. 49 M. Callon, J. Law, A. Rip, Mapping the dynamics of science and technology, The Macmillan Press Ltd.

K. R. Robinson, The use of the path concept and emerging irreversibilities in the analysis and modulation of nanotechnologies, EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4

Ken Guy b, 1 a University of Manchester-PREST/MIOIR, Manchester, UK b Wise guys Ltd.,UK Received 28 september 2006;

received in revised form 15 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts,

notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported.

if emerging 2 Phd research will be complete by Jan. 2010.3 Strategic goal for 2010, set for Europe at the Lisbon European council March 2000 (http://www. europarl. europa. eu/summits

however, when dealing with the attainment of generic goals that may or may not have been identified as specific programme goals.

networks and actor alignment Given the peculiar nature of the task at hand, namely the search for diverse impacts (from changes in social capital to more informed publics and better networking) that may

Paper presented at the 9th ICTPI conference, Santorini, June 18 21 2006.2 K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Evaluating a participative foresight process:‘

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.10 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes,

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.18 Technopolis, et al. Using Logic models, The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:

paper presented in the conference of European Group of Public Administration, Lisbon, September 2003.28 A. Molina, Sociotechnical constituencies as processes of alignment:

by the time of his departure in January 2000, had grown to be a leader in its field, with offices in Brighton, Amsterdam, Paris and Vienna.

H-1112, Budapest, Hungary Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 19 december 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Universities have traditionally been key players in producing

and validating new scientific knowledge, but other actors have also become major research performers. Meanwhile, the notion of research has been extended considerably,

and the environment of universities is also undergoing fundamental changes. Thus, it is timely to consider alternative futures for them,

e g. the harsh critique by a former British minister of Education and Skills published in The Guardian on 10 may 2003,

At the Berlin Conference, held on 18 19 september 2003, however, the need to incorporate doctoral studies into the Bologna Process was mentioned specifically 41,

in July 2005 the European commission published a draft document on Cohesion Policy in Support of Growth and Jobs:

of knowledge, Communication from the Commission, COM (2003) 58 final, Brussels, 5 february 2003.3 EC, The European research area:

new perspectives, Green Paper, COM (2007) 161,4 April 2007.4 OECD, Four Futures scenarios for Higher education, OECD CERI, presented at the meeting of OECD Education Ministers, Athens

, 27 28 june 2006.5 S. Vincent-Lancrin, What is changing in academic research? Trends and futures scenarios, Eur.

Current Trends and Challenges for the Near future, Final Report, EC DG Research Unit RTD-K. 2 october, 2002.8 LERU, Universities and Innovation:

the Challenge for Europe, League of European research Universities, November, 2006.9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, The Higher education sector and Its Role in Research:

Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29 september 2006, available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,

Policy 30 (3)( 2001) 509 532.36 B. Kehm, Governance and Strategy, Presentation at a Workshop on Driving forces and Challenges for the European University, Brussels, March 23 24 2006.37

Building on the success of the 2004 and 2006 events, the third edition of the Conference in October 2008

Received 17 november 2008 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring and analyzing systemic change in technology.

dated 4 february 2008 27. Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28.

The current Wikipedia Accessible Rich Internet applications page is only a stub without the detailed hyperlinks typical of awikipedia page.

The history demonstrates that the first introduction of the page was 23 may 2008. The first release by Microsoft of a beta version of the browser incorporating the new standards was 5 March 2008.

In summary, the hierarchical random graph did seem to anticipate new technological changes in the area of new standards for accessible rich Internet applications.

PICMET, 2007.20 S. P. Hubbell, The Unified Natural Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton university Press, Princeton, 2001.21 A. Clauset, Hierarchical Random Graph, 2008, Accessed 25 august

A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap

4 february 2008,2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://www. w3. org/TR/wai-aria-roadmap/./28 Wikipedia, WAI-ARIA, 2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Accessible rich internet applications. 29 R. Henderson, K. M. Clark, Architectural innovation:

the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms, Adm. Sci. Q. 35 (1990) 9 30.30 S g. Green, M. B. Gavin, L. Aiman-Smith, Assessing a multidimensional measure of radical technological innovation, IEEE Trans.

Received 11 march 2008 Received in revised form 6 april 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide.

The RIF process typically runs for nine months during which several working groups interact in a highly structured way.

This may indicate risks that have to be considered before implementing the solution. The lower circle calls for some caution in discarding these options

(i e. balanced) basis. The location of options in Fig. 3 may now be interpreted as follows: a coincidence of social and sustainability assessments is given

On the other hand, the vast amount of discursive material assembled during the nine month process is very difficult to grasp

Members of the core team had to invest about seven full days over a nine months period for participating in the RIF procedure.

Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools,

e g. spring floods or ice cover freezing over the river in the 2 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th 2009.3 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th

risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.

and to create knowledge to help decision making in defining management strategies concerning the changes the future may cause.

This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

Foresight for Europe, Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, April 24, 2002, European commission, Brussels, 2002.6 A. Eerola, E. Väyrynen, Developing technology forecasting and technology assessment

EFMN European foresight monitoring Network, 2009, Available at http://www. foresight-network. eu/files/reports/efmn mapping 2007. pdf (Read July 8th 2009.

http://reports. eea. europa. eu/GH-07-97-595-EN-C2/en/riskindex. html (read June 12th 2008.

2008) January/February 2008. doi-link: http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. jchas. 2007.07.001 (Read June 12th 2008.

25 International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), IEC 61882: 2001. Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP Studies) Application Guide, Geneva, Switzerlaand 2001.26 T. A. Kletz, Plant Design for Safety:

, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida

Tours, France, 15 18 june 2008. ISPIM, 2008.37 R. Molarius, N. Wessberg, J. Keränen, J. Schabel, Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure hydropower plant case, Finland,

towards a new safety paradigm, Journal of Risk Research 10 (7)( 2007) 959 975 October 2007.

1999.42 JRC and IPTS FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight guide in http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/4 methodology/framework. htm (read May 28th 2009).

43 Arlington Institute. http://www. arlingtoninstitute. org/(read May 28th 2009. 44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,

/Read May 28th 2009. 45 Futuríbles, THE Strategic Environment for Companies: Guideline Scenarios General Summary, 2004 http://www. futuribles. com/pdf/Strategicenvironment. pdf. Read 28th 2009.

13 may 2004; received in revised form 24 october 2004; accepted 1 november 2004 Abstract This paper describes some important frontiers of futures research with the aim of identifying new opportunities for improving the value and utility of the field.

These frontiers include the exploration and/or the reexamination of (a) Potential for integrating new technology with futures research methods,

(b) Ways to reduce the domain of the unknowable, (c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making,(d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime,

and challenges that may give new vitality to futures research. Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking

Received 10 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 Along with increasing significance of innovation in socioeconomic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making.

Foresight process Fully fledged foresight Bibliometrics Strategic partnerships Research alliances 1. Introduction In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process

As an input to the first workshop in November 2007, a first set of scientific papers describing the developments in the fields were written

An online survey among experts from the German innovation landscape was performed in September 2008 in order to get broader assessment on the topics,

Services Science In a first workshop with 110 participants in November 2007, these 14 thematic fields were discussed with respect to emerging topics

a nationwide online survey was carried out in September 2008. The results from this survey, expert interviews and a set of criteria were supposed to be inputs to select interesting candidates for BMBF relating to the targets 1) and 2) of the process. 3. 3. The online survey Intentionally

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 For the survey, in September 2008 altogether 19.365 persons from German companies, academia, associations and single persons (consultants or persons

A reminder was sent at the end of September 2008 and the survey was finished on October 22, 2008. The survey was accessed via the code we sent to the participants.

If someone else wanted to participate, it was necessary to contact the project office to receive a new code. 2659 persons filled in one of the questionnaires,

and implementation phase An international workshop at the beginning of October 2008 marked the link to generate ideas for recommendations concerning policies

The information and topics gained in these processes may also be interesting for other actors in the innovation system.

Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

We would also like to thank the participants of the April 2008 BLOSSOM workshop in Copenhagen

and the participants of the 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis which took place in October 2008 for useful discussions and comments.

which warned of the dangers of a 9-11-scale terrorist attack, examined 20 scenario studies of U s. national security

The process of doing so may persuade key decision makers of the need for further action.

report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:

http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20%Scanning%20centre/Fanclubnews/Feb2008. asp (accessed 7th july 2008.

shooting the rapids, Harvard Bus. Rev. 63 (6 nov.//Dec.,1985) 139 150.6 T. Henrichs, M. Zurek, B. Eickhout, K. Kok, C. Raudsepp-Hearne, T. Ribeiro, D. van Vuuren

, A. Volkery (in prep. Scenario development and Analysis for Forward-looking Ecosystem Assessments. In: MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (in prep.

Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 The democratic deficit (the‘deficit'hereafter) in present institutional Foresight(‘Foresight'hereafter) lies in its participation regime.

of important influences that may shape the future of research and indirectly society. It is far from clear that the sponsors of Foresight studies,

'In this context, inclusivity needs to create an appreciation of those wider matters that may influence a nation or a region;

The notion underlying expert consultation is that the consultors select the consultees according to rules that may

The EUFORIA Project synthesis report, Report to the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living Conditions, Working Conditions and Industrial Relations, October, 2003.2 K. Cuhls, Government foresight activities

. Loveridge, Computers and you, Futures 15 (6)( 1983) 498 503.8 E. Powell, Politicians and the future, Futures (1979) 338 341 August 9 A. Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity

, Polity Press, 1990.10 A. Maslow, Motivation and Personality, Harper & Row, NY, 1954.11 D. dubeth, Values and lifestyles, Insight 1 (5)( 1984) 2 11 september

1978 95, Futures 14 (3)( 1982) 205 239 June 13 D. Loveridge, Foresight seven paradoxes, International Journal of Technology management 21 (7/8

Technology and Strategic management 20 (1)( 2008) 29 44 January 24 P. Berg, et al. Potential Biohazards of RECOMBINANT DNA Molecules, Science (1974) 303.

Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 17 july 2009 Potentially breakthrough science

and how these may co-evolve with each other. This paper presents a research project that took the recent activities in

and risks that may become reality as nanotechnology matures. It is uncertain what sort of sectors will be impacted

whilst constraining those that may cause harm. But the potential breakthrough nature of nanotechnologies as enablers of radically new applications may mean a complex reconfiguration of the environments that a nanotechnology innovation may traverse during its‘lifetime'from concept to well embedded technology in our society.

and deep case research 4 into scenario narratives which place emphasis on the how paths to the future may unfold

and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.

At the time of the workshop (December 2007) the situation in and around nanotechnology involved mostly the discussion of Environment, Health and Safety aspects (EHS/HES) and other nanotoxicity related discussions,

This was one vision of the future proposed by a number of codes of conduct tabled in the December 2007 EU meeting.

this is a stylised quote announced by a large pharmaceutical company in a meeting in November 2007 on Nanomedicine 38..

This example is linked to a presentation given by manufacturing firm in the London meeting November 2007 on Nanomedicine.

Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances (EC 1907/2006) which entered into force on 1 june 2007.

18 july September 2006) 411 428 Numbers 3 4,-4. 10 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA

Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.11 P. Larédo, E. Jolivet, E. Shove, S. Raman, A. Rip, E. Moors, B. Poti, G

Ecole des Mines, Project SOE 1981126,'Management tools and a Management framework for Assessing the Potential of Long-term S&t Options to Become Embedded in Society',TSER Programme of the European commission, January 2002.12 A. Rip, Introduction

Rev. 75 (1985) 332 337.27 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.28 R. Garud, P

Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.35 A. Rip, M. van Amerom, Emerging de facto Agendas Around Nanotechnology:

Akademische Verlagsanstalt, 2009.37 Mayer Brown, Minutes of Debate on Governance Initiatives for the European Nanotechnology Community in the Public and Private Sectors European commission, Brussels, December 5th 2007.38 Investing

Medical Nanotechnologies II, Royal College of Surgeons, London, UK, Nov 28 29 2007 (www. nano. org. uk). 39 A. Delemarle, D. K. R

technology platforms and institutional entrepreneurship, Paper Presented at the Triple Helix Conference, Turin, May 18 21 2005.40 D. K. R. Robinson, A. Rip, V. Mangematin, Technological agglomeration

03 december 2014, At: 05:08 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:

12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:

8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.

10.1080/09537320903262272 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014 916 Editorial authors conclude that the short-term success of the policy impact was at the expense of mediumtt long-term impact

This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:09 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:

1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:

12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Per Dannemand Andersen & Mads Borup (2009) Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 917-932, DOI:

8 november 2009,917 932 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes Per Dannemand Andersen*and Mads Borup Department of Management Engineering

10.1080/09537320903262280 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 918 P. D. Andersen

the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 920 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 2. 2. Foresight approaches and methods Whereas the rationale for foresight gets its legitimacy from the tradition of evolutionary econoomi foresight,

but it seems generally accepted Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight

March 1988; March 1994. Traditional alternatives to rational-analytical models of decision processes are political models

and anarchical models (e g. the garbage-can and muddling-through models). To these authors there seems to be a relationship between Martin's definition of foresight

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 922 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup With this understanding of strategy it is logical to use forecasting methods capable of analysing the uncertainties in the future strategic environment.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 923 Foresight and strategy focus on competencies and visions for defining future development;

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 924 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup Since the study was formulated the Danish research sector has changed dramatically.

The Danish advisory and funding system for research was subjected to a large reform in January 2004. Following this reform the Technical research Council was merged with another council

but quite a few also included thoughts on education and on the potential industrial and societal Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 925 impacts of the suggested research.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 926 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 3. 4. Strategy processes in the Danish energy research programme The Danish energy research programme is managed by the Danish energy authority,

but the Ministry did not approve this Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 927 suggestion.

and decisions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 928 P. D. Andersen

descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization

Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight

demarcation, e g. against natural science and the natural science research council Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 930 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 4. Conclusion In contrast to basic funding for universities

For example, Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 931 a full Delphi survey could be applied,

New technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, 13 14 may, Seville, Spain. EU DG Research. 2005. Final Report.

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 932 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup Gibbons, M.,C. Limoges, H. Nowotny, S. Schwartzman, P. Scott,

Harvard Business Review, no. 33 (May June: pp. 79 91. Reger, G. 2001. Technology foresight in companies: