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(DG JRC-IPTS), E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 20 february 2005 The contribution included in this special issue builds on material presented to the first EU US Scientific Seminar

accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.

received in revised form 1 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS

which are promoted by the European commission towards the establishment of the European Researcharea. Specifically, we report experiences froma recent consultation process that was organized withinwoodwisdom-Net (ERA NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new

screening of research issues Project team January February‘06 5. Three one-day workshops for Researchers and Industrial leaders 10 12 Researchers and Industrial leaders

/workshop Mid-february,‘06 6. A one-day workshop for funding organizations Representatives from funding organizations End of March‘

In Mid-february, three workshops were organized to take stock of results fromthe Internet-based activities and to develop tentative recommendations about

accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.

accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.

a young start-up company initiated in February 2006 with intentions to be the systems integrator of a lab-on-a-chip device focused on a specific application in the medical sector.

75,1985, pp. 332 337.38 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.536 D. K. R. Robinson

received in revised form 15 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts,

notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported.

accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Universities have traditionally been key players in producing and validating new scientific knowledge,

of knowledge, Communication from the Commission, COM (2003) 58 final, Brussels, 5 february 2003.3 EC, The European research area:

dated 4 february 2008 27. Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28.

4 february 2008,2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://www. w3. org/TR/wai-aria-roadmap/./28 Wikipedia, WAI-ARIA, 2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Accessible rich internet applications. 29 R. Henderson, K. M. Clark, Architectural innovation:

2008) January/February 2008. doi-link: http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. jchas. 2007.07.001 (Read June 12th 2008.

report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:

Rev. 75 (1985) 332 337.27 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.28 R. Garud, P

979 Figure 3. The design of the municipal vision project according to the project group, February 2006. schools systematically and created three future pictures,

February 2006 italics added. 14. From Invitation. 15. Interview with vision project leader, April 2006. All interviews were conducted in confidentiality,

9‘‘Lesogmface aux nouveaux paradigmes de la biologie'',meeting organised on February 11th and 12th 2009 in the framework of the ANR-OGM COBINA research project. 10 Decision announced by Ilse Aigner, federal ministry for agriculture, on April 14th 2009.

Presentation at the PRIME Winter School on Emerging Nanotechnologies, Grenoble, 4 8 february, 2008.48 A. Bonaccorsi, G. Thoma, Institutional complementarity and inventive performance in nano science and Technology research

The 2 This section of the paper was developed initially for a presentation Foresight in Priority Setting Towards a European Initiative at a workshop‘‘Shaping the European Dimension of Foresight"28 february 1 march 2005, Brussels ftp://ftp

In February 2004 Nantero 29 states they are on track for NRAM development. Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.

Nantero Press release (February 2004. 30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature

Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.

Harvard Business Review (January February: 43 53. Bowker, G, . and S l. Star. 1999. Sorting things out:

www. wipo. int/classifications/ipc/en/general/preface. html (accessed February 10, 2010. PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),

2003 February) 52 59.40 T. Devezas, G. Modelski, Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling, Simulating and Forecasting Social Change, a Proposal of a Seminar to the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation,

''which the reelected government presented after the general election in February 2005. The government established an internal Committee of Ministers and a broad-based Council for Globalisation,

Available online 12 february 2014 Keywords: Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,

Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010003-04 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 3 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 4 anticipate and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment.

trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:

**Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 6 scans in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark, as developed in the ERA NET Forsociety Project.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010007-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 7 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,

and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),

Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 10 Joining up the data To compare the data of the different scans

administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held

and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team

Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February

Morton Wied Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 14 responsible, whatever its political constitution. Issuue were selected on the basis of indications in the literature of either positive and/or negative impact on these values.

The report contained recommendations for Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 15 specific foresight activities which still have to be executed.

and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.

and evoking important questiion around the future than in providing clear-cut Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 17 answers (Medina Vasquez, 2006).

Available at<http://www. cadth. ca/index. php/en/hta/programs/horizonscanning>,last accessed 1 february 2010.6. UK HSC.

<http://www. sigmascan. org/Live/>,last accessed 1 february 2010.8. Netherlands Horizon scan. Available at<http://www. horizonscan. nl/>,last accessed 1 june 2009.9.

/>last accessed 1 february 2010.)11. UK Sima Scan. Available at<http://www. sigmascan. org>,last accessed 1 june 2009.12. UK Delta Scan.

/>last accessed 1 february 2010.16. See<http://www. sesti. info/sesti/en/consortium-info>,last accessse 1 february 2010.17.

See threats number 67 and 65 on page 101/102 of the Netherlland Horizon scan report (In't Veld et al.

Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:

>last accessed 1 february 2010. Habegger B 2009. Horizon scanning in Government. Zurich: ETH Centre for Security Studies.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010019-12 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 19 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 21 elements and showing how the implementation of those elements in combination enables us to disentanngl the complexity of the disruptive forces influenccin a sector

adapted from Wiesand and Söndermann (2005) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 22 a mass audience.

experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010

and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 25 and related variants, uncertain issues, potential disrupttion and the likelihood of possible identified trends/issues.

and Public policy February 2010 26 remain crucial for the future success of the creative content sector.

and Public policy February 2010 27 promises associated with user created content, sociia software and Web 2. 0 are realised.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5: Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis,

2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010031-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 31 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,

>last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.

In particular, foresight has not been evaluated as an instrument of science and innovation policy. Thus the real effect of foresight on priorities may be difficult to determine.

and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,

synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;

and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:

the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with

Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,

and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.

>last accessed 3 february 2010.2. See website, available at<www. apecforesight. org>,last accessse 3 february 2010.

References Amanatidou Effie and Ken Guy 2006. Interpreting foresight procees impacts: steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.

Available at<http://www. foresight-network. eu>,last accessse 3 february 2010. Georghiou, Luke and Michael Keenan 2004.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010041-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 41 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 42 new diseases such as SARS and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with variants such as H5n1;

and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world.

Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d

and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.

emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 45 possibly hinder the progress of technology developmment

In February 2015, a family arrives in Miami, Florida from tropical Latin america. A little girl was infected with an unknown strain of malaria.

The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop

and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications. The additional technology applications identified were:

to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017

multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center,

Rangsin's project was concluded in February 2009 and has provided policy recommendations to the Thai government (Rangsin, 2009).

and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.

Available at<http://www. apec. org/apec/leaders declarations/2006. html>,last accessed 20 february 2010. Nordmann, Alfred 2004.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010051-11 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 51 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed, although‘the consumer'has always been important,

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.

and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.

i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.

evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life

and Public policy February 2010 57 the use of mobile applications to support their existiin products and services.

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.

54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February

Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010063-16 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 63 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 64 avoids the functional form restrictions implicit in running a regression of some type.

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.

To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio

+-positive (negative) and statistically significant effect at 10%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 67 find a positive policy effect but in some cases

%Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 68 significantly lower than the respective share of projeect of these scientific fields.

CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out

G g a-=0 N a Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 70 (6) where and is the kernel7 at the point In a fifth step,

5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 71 innovation performance than non-subsidized firms (at the 5%test level.

5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 72‘low-subsidy'firms from that of the respective groups of non-subsidized firms.

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 73 Appendix Table A1.

Italian (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 74appendix (continued) Table A3.

*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 75 Appendix (continued) Table A5.

*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 76 Appendix (continued) Table A7.

and Public policy February 2010 77 Notes 1. See Bozeman (2000); Georghiou and Roessner (2000; and Feller (2007) for recent reviews of the central issues related to the evaluation of the effectiveness of technology programmes.

and Public policy February 2010 78 3. The questionnaire may be obtained from the authors. It is available in German,

10.1093/scipol/scs006 Advance Access published on 17 february 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.

The latest MLP was presented in February 2006 and lasts until 2020. It proposed guidelines which are expressed in 16 Chinese characters:

Phase 3 march 2011 to February 2012: Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,