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received in revised form 14 march 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning.

/workshop Mid-february,‘06 6. A one-day workshop for funding organizations Representatives from funding organizations End of March‘

Based on the results from all preceding phases, a workshop for funding organizations was organized at the end of March 2006 to examine these results and, more specifically,

At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 31 40.4 D. Barker, David J. H. Smith, Technology foresight using roadmaps, Long Range Plan. 28 (2

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 47 52.15 K. Matzler, M. Rier, H. H. Hinterhuber, B. Renzl, C. Stadler, Methods and concepts

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 27 30.18 D. Rigby, Management tools and Techniques: A survey, Calif. Manage.

if emerging 2 Phd research will be complete by Jan. 2010.3 Strategic goal for 2010, set for Europe at the Lisbon European council March 2000 (http://www. europarl. europa. eu/summits

Policy 30 (3)( 2001) 509 532.36 B. Kehm, Governance and Strategy, Presentation at a Workshop on Driving forces and Challenges for the European University, Brussels, March 23 24 2006.37

The first release by Microsoft of a beta version of the browser incorporating the new standards was 5 March 2008.

Received 11 march 2008 Received in revised form 6 april 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide.

e g. spring floods or ice cover freezing over the river in the 2 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th 2009.3 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th

Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.11 P. Larédo, E. Jolivet, E. Shove, S. Raman, A. Rip, E. Moors, B. Poti, G

Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.35 A. Rip, M. van Amerom, Emerging de facto Agendas Around Nanotechnology:

March 1988; March 1994. Traditional alternatives to rational-analytical models of decision processes are political models

and anarchical models (e g. the garbage-can and muddling-through models). To these authors there seems to be a relationship between Martin's definition of foresight

From power point presentation by project leadership, March 2006. The visioning project was organised by a project group consisting of one of Lundal's municipal administration employees

Power point presentation, March 2006. people's suggestions, they were asked to focus on the‘well-being of citizens and on ideas about

March 2006 italics added. 13. Invitation sent by Lundal's head of schools to all secondary schools and colleges,

rising obesity rates add up to a growing industry in plus-size design, I. D. 65 (2004 March/April) 61 63.

The 2 This section of the paper was developed initially for a presentation Foresight in Priority Setting Towards a European Initiative at a workshop‘‘Shaping the European Dimension of Foresight"28 february 1 march 2005, Brussels ftp://ftp

Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.27 Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills, UK, Innovation White paper Innovation Nation, CM7345, March 2008.28 I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann

as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.

March 14, 2009. 6 J. Smith, Presentation at the Centre for Innovation studies, Thecis Breakfast Edmonton Alberta, January 13th, 2009.7 J. Petersen, Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Madison Books, 2000.8

March 14, 2009. 14 R c. Jantz, Technological Discontinuities in the Library: Digital Projects that Illustrate New Opportunities for the Librarian and the Library, in:

March 14, 2009. 15 Social Technologies, Discontinuity: Mobility, 2008. Available at: http://www. socialtechnologies. com/Fileview. aspx?

March 14, 2009. 16 E. Hiltunen, Weak signals, Presentation given at the Finland futures research centre, 2007. Available at: http://www. slideshare. net/whatidiscover/weaksiggnal (last visited on:

March 14, 2009. 17 Y. Nugroho, O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in Foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (2009) 6, 21 41.

Prime minister's Office organised a gathering on March 29, 2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process

30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature

2 march: 201 18. Milian, M. 2009. Why text messages are limited to 160 characters. Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.

The co-joining of quantitative and qualitative information is exemplified by the T ohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 march 2011 north east of Japan.

Environmental uncertainty and strategic foresight Conceptualisation of environmental uncertainty Early conceptualisations of uncertainty go back to pioneering management scholars such as Knight (1921) and March and Simon (1958),

Some of these were anticipated by the CIS investment team in that the FY2005 calls (issued in March 2004) reflected an increased interest in informatics,

www. oeaw. ac. at/ita/pdf/ita 01 02. pdf (accessed March 8, 2010. Ashton, B. W. and Klavans, R. A. 1997), Keeping Abreast of Science and Technology:

www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/stfc/stt018e/qr18pdf/STTQR1802. pdf (accessed March 8, 2011.

http://ec. europa. eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/efmn-mapping-foresight en. pdf (accessed March 8, 2011. Powell, J. H. and Bradford, J. P. 2000),‘Targeting intelligence gathering in a dynamic competitive environment'',International Journal of Information management, Vol. 20, pp. 181-95.

www. oeaw. ac. at/ita/ebene5/GTDEL99IND. pdf (accessed March 8, 2011. Turoff, M. 1970),‘The design of a policy Delphi'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 2, pp. 149-71.

This mapping was conducted from March to October 2007. The mapping consisted of three parts. On behalf of DASTI, the OECD's International Futures Programme Unit carried out an international horizon scan,

Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:

in March 2007 and a second in October 2007. The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.

Canada's foresight progrram based in the National science Advisor's (NSA) Office was disbanded in March 2008

and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico. Elsewhere the report was disseminated throughout the Asia-pacific region

Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.

>last accessed March 2007. Schumacher, J and V-p Niitamo (eds. 2008. European Living Labs. A New approach for Human Centric Regional Innovatiion WVB, Berlin.

<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/intro. html>accessed March 2012.138. M. Boden et al.

<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed March 2012. The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139

10.1093/scipol/scs015 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.

‘Over 10 billion Yuan to be invested in 211 Project',26 march 2008). 6 3. 4 Diffusion The‘Torch'and‘Spark'Programs are clear-cut examples of diffusion-oriented measures,

‘Over 10 billion Yuan to be invested in 211 Project'26 march 2008). 7 Similarly, the purpose of the 985 Program, established in 1998,

In March 1986 Deng xiaoping personally approved the drafting of a National High-tech R&d Program, the 863 Program.

is considered widely to have been the response by then-Premier Li peng to concerns voiced by scientists at the Political Consultation Conference (zhengxie) in March 1997 that basic research was being neglected in S&t funding.

Let a million flowers bloom',10 march 2011. Elzinga, A. 1985)‘ Research, bureaucracy and the drift of episteemi criteria'.

10.1093/scipol/scs008 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.

the notion of‘function'is provided useful its heuristic value is stressed. 2. COM (2010) 2020, Brussels, 3 march 2010.3. COM (2010) 546 final, Brussels, 6 october 2010.4.

A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth',COM (2010) 2020,3 March 2010. Brussels: European commission.

10.1093/scipol/scs012 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.

Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011: Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..

Phase 3 march 2011 to February 2012: Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,

See<http://www. sigmascan. org>accessed 10 march 2012.3. See<http://wiwe. iknowfutures. eu/>accessed 10 march 2012.4.

In 2007 ESF evaluated the experiences with Forward Looks (Van der meulen 2007. Though the Forward Looks focus on science agendas,

'speech delivered at the conferrenc‘Sustainable development UK 09',held London, 19 march 2009. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006)‘ Scenario types and techniques:

10.1093/scipol/scs016 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.

<http://www. whitehouse. gov/innovation strategy>accessed 15 march 2012.3. For an analysis of the link between innovation strategies and economic performance, see Dahlman (2008.

<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.8. The use of‘regional'in this paper is to be understood as‘geographically part of a nation'

<http://ipts. jrc. ec. europa. eu/activities/research-andinnovvations3platform. cfm>accessed 15 march 2012.10. ERAWATCH is a platform collecting data on national research systems in the ERA,

JTIS make use of Framework Prograamm 7 support services such as the IPR Helpdesk(<www. ipr-helpdesk. org>accessed 15 march 2012)

and the Finance Helpdesk(<www. finance-helpdesk. org>accessed 15 march 2012). 14. External evaluation of the EIT (External Evaluation 2011.

See<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.35. An example is the generic online foresight training,

<http://economics. ouls. ox. ac. uk/14015/>accessed 15 march 2012. Edquist, C.,ed.,(1997) Systems Innovation:

2012)‘ Forlearn Online foresight Guide',<http://www. foresight-platform. eu/community/foresightguide/>accessed 15 march 2012. External Evaluation.

<http://ec. europa. eu/dgs/education culture/evalreports/education/2011/eitreport en. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<

<http://erawatch. jrc. ec. europa. eu/erawatch/export/sites/default/galleries/generic files/file 0101. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012.

-to-d14 en. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Meier zu Ko cker, G.,Hein, D. and Chinalski, M. 2008)‘ German Polish network-based R&d co-operation:

%20era-NETS%20industrial%20technologies%202007. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Nonaka, I. 1994)‘ A dynamic theory of organizational knowleedg creation',Organization science, 5: 14 37.

'<http://www. emida-era net/upload/pdf/WP4%20deliverable%204%201%20framework%20fpu%20incl%20tor%20 final%2016042009. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012.

<www. jointprogramming2010. eu/pdfpresenntation1. 2%20-%20seiser. pptx>accessed 15 march 2012. Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2004)‘ The rise of systemic instrumeent in innovation policy',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, 1: 4 32.

2012)‘ UNIDO Technology foresight Guide',<https://www. unido. org/foresight/registration/dokums raw/volume2 unido tf manual. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012.

<http://www. era. gv. at/attach/Urban-Report ecassessment 201104 final. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 207

which occurred in Japan in March 2011.4. Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.

The key conceep for innovation journalism',Innovation Journalism, 2/11<www. innovationjournalism. org>accessed 13 march 2012.

-00>accessed 13 march 2012. European commission. 2009) The World in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition, EUR 23921 EN.