according to visions of sustainable development, developed in a participatory foresight process. We, therefore, see adaptive planning as a way to overcome this lack of realism in much foresight work
but also in terms of ensuring sustainable development. These two‘pillars',the‘knowledge society'and‘participatory governance',can become the common framework in
we posit that more sustainable development strategies for infrastructures will result. Foresight, according to this understanding, is not planning itself,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Acknowledgements The project Regional infrastructure foresight was funded by The swiss National science Foundation within the National research Program 54 Sustainable development of the Built Environment.
His main focuses of interests are commercializing environmental technologies and sustainable development. He holds Master's degree in both Marketing
Her main research interests concern technology foresight, service research and sustainable development. 1176 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176
composite indicators or survey based studies providing comparisons in a wide range of fields like economy, society, education, innovation system, or sustainable development.
At the same time, it also indicates how effectively the development in question complies with the principles of sustainable development.
from an information society into a knowledge society and from the knowledge society stage towards a knowledgevaalu society and towards the society fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development.
In addition to the three development phases of a modern society, technology barometer considers sustainable development as a fourth object of analysis,
indicating how effectively the development in question complies with the principles of sustainable development. The indicators of societies fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development are social values, environmental responsibility and environmental systems.
The technology barometer measures the objectives of sustainable development by three indicator entities social cohesion in the society in question, environmental protection actions taken by businesses and authorities,
and the actual state of the environment. In conclusion, an indicator study of the technology barometer comprises 12 sub-indicators providing an index-type key value indicating the state of technology at a given time.
According to the indicators of sustainable development Sweden, Denmark and The netherlands proved to be leading of the rated economies followed by Finland.
competence and knowledge generation, knowledge society development, innovative society and sustainable development. The first part sets out the respondent groups'assessments concerning the techno-scientific competence prospects and young people's interest in a number of professions.
The fourth part in the survey sets out assessments of sustainable development focusing on environmental threats the state of the environment,
sustainable development; and security, again raising demands for 1183 T. Loikkanen et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 indicators.
Economic Forum) Wellbeing Index (Prescott-Allen) Sustainable development Index (UN) Synthetic Environmental Indices (Isla M.)Eco-indicator 99 (pre consultants) Concern about environmental problems
knowledge management 3. 3. 2. Entrepreneurship and economic regeneration 3. 3. 3. Networking and openness in international activities 3. 4. Sustainable development 3. 4. 1. Social
. Sustainable development 4. 5. 1. Factors threatening the environment 4. 5. 2. The state of the environment and the actions of the authorities Appendices Content of the Technology barometer Key results Competence and knowledge
development Knowledge society development Innovative society Sustainable development 1185 T. Loikkanen et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 References 1 M. Nardo, M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, A. Hoffman, E. Giovannini, Handbook
7. Health research and medicine 8. Infrastructure technology, urbanisation and environmental development 9. Environmental protection technology and sustainable development 10.
Notwithstanding the fact that many strategic policy documents extend their validity beyond legislative cycles (take the case of national sustainable development strategies for example) a short-term,
Reflexive governance for Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2008.14 J. J. Deuten, A. Rip, J. Jelsma, Societal embedment and product creation management, Technol.
Scenario learning and potential sustainable development processes in spatial contexts: towards risk society or ecological modernization of scenarios.
Information security and trust management Telecommunications and multimedia Sustainable resource Managing sustainable development management in Understanding ecosystems and biodiversity Luxembourg Sustainable management of water resources Sustainable
In Reflexive governance for sustainable development ed. J.-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Strategic knowledge for sustainable development: the need for reflexivity and learning at the interface between science and society.
In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 162 88.
In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 3 30.
In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht, and R. Kemp, 189 221.
, pp. 71 88.13 World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford university Press, New york, 1987.14 Sustainable development: a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
These dimensions are rooted ideals in the social response to the concept of sustainable development, which has been moulded throughout the last few centuries1
Sustainable development can be characterised as long term social learning oriented by public policies, which are driven by a national plan of between regions and within regions endogenous development.
sustainable development can be seen as a proposal with an ethical modernity in its horizon and not only a technical one;
Implicitly, sustainable development recognises the need for technology to develop solutions that conserve the Earth's resources,
As a consequence, the social construction of sustainable development becomes a process ofmanaging multidimensional social conflicts embedded in the six dimensions for sustainability as articulated systems:
ISSN 1463-6689 jforesight j PAGE 279 Vicente Carabias is a Senior Scientist in‘‘Foresight and Sustainable development''and EU Contact Point at the Institute of Sustainable development,
is responsible for European cooperation and for coordinating foresight activities as well as the research area on sustainable energy systems at the ZHAW Institute of Sustainable development.
''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Time and Space for Sustainable development, Springer, Dordrecht. IPCC (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII, Climate change 2007: Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment, and the future of communities.
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
formulating a future vision for sustainable development Once the proposed approach to link foresight tools to the urban planning process has been established,
which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).
The issue of sustainable development (SD) has been chosen because it is a key challenge for contemporary societies,
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously.
1. characterise the sustainable development concept; 2. identify and assess change trends that may affect sustainable development;
and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development. This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues.
Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes: 1. Vertical axis. Represented the potential alternative responses by society in the future to the SD concept.
economic models and public policies towards SD. 2. Horizontal axis. Showed the availability of resources needed to achieve the sustainable development goals in the future.
and a favourable response by public and private agents to SD and also an abundance of all types of resources required to achieve sustainable development.
but at the same time, Spanish society as a whole is inclined to support sustainable development models.‘‘‘‘Back to basics''is marked by the failure of the previous development model,
Public and private agents are fully aware of the need for sustainable development due to a lack of response by the economic and technological realm.
For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years
They mostly provide general guidelines about sustainable development that may or may not be followed by local governments. Municipal policies are implemented strictly through norms and regulations.
In this scenario, most people live in a consumption spree that makes them reject the sacrifices needed to achieve more sustainable development.
Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,
In the‘‘back to basics''scenario, sustainable development will be imperative due to the lack of energy resources and low economic activity.
heterogeneous social demands without endangering the principles of sustainable development. Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly
Emerging from the crisis and implementing sustainable development policies requires radical proposals led by social movements: B Build a social fortress based on family networks and Third Sector organizations to survive in a tough economic context.
and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.
and determine scenario implications for the sustainable development model. Experts were engaged via personal interviews and focus groups. 3. The determination of functional implications as a means to strengthen scenario design was tested for the first time as part of a foresight exercise undertaken in Burgos city (Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos,
and feel deeply involved to implement sustainable development. B Social intelligence regarding sustainability must significantly increase
In brief, Spain faces a major challenge to change social and cultural behaviour towards sustainable development. Overcoming this challenge will mean undertaking significant changes in day-to-day habits,
in order to achieve a more sustainable development model. The complementary added value of both approaches can represent an innovative opportunity for policy makers
Kates, R. W.,Parris, T. M. and Leiserowitz, A a. 2005),‘What is sustainable development? Goals, indicators, values,
Meadows, D. 1998), Indicators and Information systems for Sustainable development, The Sustainability Institute, Balaton Group, Montpelier, VT.
sometimes corresponding with the requirement to develop technologies that contribute to sustainable development (whatever the criteria for that might be).
and sustainable development (for an up-to-date and comprehensive overview see Ref. 3). On the other hand, nanotechnology has been the subject of an extensive public debate in Europe
political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
at building a knowledge base for further detailed investigations about the potential of nanomaterials, especially with regard to sustainable development,
while simultaneously following their vision of the tenets of sustainable development? Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development. The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored,
A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente a a Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands Published online:
lessons from the sociology of expectations Harro van Lente*Department of Innovation studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The netherlands Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures.
Notes on contributor Harro van Lente is Socrates Professor of Philosophy of Sustainable development at Maastricht University and Associate professor of Innovation studies at Utrecht University.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
with the support of FTA, achieving influence among their partners to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development,
management framework and path to sustainable development; dialogue and interaction; disruptive and transformative change; FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation
and a model of how companies create enduring continuity needed for sustainable development (Brundtland 1987). This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to anticipate
The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
Therefore, policy-makers'responses to sustainability are multifaceted choices that must consider the interdependencies between the many dimensions of sustainable development.
It is based on universal principles and shaped by the other three pillars of sustainable development: spatial-technological, institutional-political and cultural-values.
to sustainable development. The processes and activities embrace the necessity for internal and externna communication of social and ethical actions;
first, in a group of critical principles that need to be internalised into the core of the organisation's operations to shape the route towards sustainable development and, second,
in order to design its individual path towards sustainable development and implement the envisaged plan. The group of generic behaviours or actions is that
so that companies can effectively follow their (network) vision of sustainable development. Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
shaped by a firm's individual context and culture, will offer different and clear possibilities to implement the organisation's (network) vision of sustainable development.
so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development and implement the designed plan to meet this vision,
a path towards networks'sustainable development 3. 1. Network value activities Traditionally, in a network, value activities are the building blocks by
and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.
and the intangible assets underlying sustainable development are partnerships, strategy, communication, competencies, motivation, technology and operations. These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005.
Appendix 3 summarrise the main characteristics of these value activities. Figure 1 depicts the business's Activities Model
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
and follow its path to sustainable development. The framework is dynamic to incorporate changes along the way
and its networks'progress towards the common vision of sustainable development. The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are
Hence, firms should use the evolutionary lessons as a main step in integrating sustainable development into the business model.
which are critical to achieve a common vision of sustainable development as well as to mobilise and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
For most, the undeclared psychological imperative is to maintain‘successful continuity'and their independence. The secoon unspoken but implicit theme for a company is knowing that successful continuity,
while attempting to followwhat a firm believes to be its sustainable development and that of its mutually supporting network of businesses?
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
It offers the possibility for each firm to assess its position regarding five maturiit levels for sustainable development.
it may also influence partners in their progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. The Maturity Model suggested in Table 3 (Cagnin 2005) uses the notion of evolution in
which a company will be seeking to achieve its (network) vision of sustainable development in uninterrrupte cycles of improvement.
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
The above descriptions present a useful heuristic to complex systems and the interactions between the dimensions of sustainable development
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
or for moving the whole system towards higher levels of sustainable development. Dialogue and information-sharing, founded on trust,
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
Comparatively, this indicates that an organisation can progress towards sustainable development more efficiently and responsibly by integrating the six dimensions of sustainability into its core operations.
Progress towards sustainable development may depend on building dynamic partnerships among these three pillars (Holliday, Schmidheiny, andwatts 2002.
Putting sustainable development into practice a guide for organisations. London: Published by BSI for the SIGMA project.
The business case for sustainable development. San francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. ISO. 2012. International organisation for Standardisation. http://www. iso. org/iso/iso catalogue. htm (accessed June 2012.
which will guide the organisation in the long run to achieve its desired vision of sustainable development and gain sustainable competitive advantages Communication The ability to document
Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
Cagnin, C. and Loveridge, D. 2011),‘A business framework for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and transformative change and lead business networks towards sustainable development,
which sustainable development has become increasingly embedded politically, in policy terms, and socially. In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
themes in achieving a more sustainable EU and planet. The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are:
and 7. global poverty and sustainable development challenges. Within this general backdrop, there emerged a focus on‘‘grand challenges''and within the European union.
versus secularism Social values Behaviour lags in sustainable development Digital natives Complexity and uncertainty Social capital brings returns Quality of life
's Grand Societal Challenges'',Report of the ETP Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006), Review of the European union Sustainable development Strategy Renewed Strategy, available at:
policy to support research'',COM (2004) 353, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004b),‘Stimulating technologies for sustainable development:
The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
World Business Council for Sustainable development, Washington. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://www. wbcsd. org/web/vision2050. htm. 441 P. De Smedt et al./
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 64 A. Geyer, F. Scapolo, European manufacturing in transition the challenge of sustainable development:
Manag. 12 (3)( 2008) 255 273.34 J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to sustainable development, New Directions in the Study of Long term Transformative Change, Routledge
*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon
International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands.
Reflexive governance For Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, http://www. eelggarenvironment. com/Bookentry contents. lasso?
promoting sustainable development; and creating capabilities for managing international crises. In the US the term‘converging technologies'was used first at a 2001 workshop organized by the US National science Foundation and the US Departmeen of Commerce entitled‘Converging Technologiie for Improving Human Performance'.
Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c, 28036 Madrid, Spain 4zhaw Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland*Corresponding author.
UN Commission on Sustainable development, Rio+20 Earth Summit in 2012. ICSU has been using foresight practices for some time to determine research priorities (Teixeira et al. 2002)
By 2031 global science (natural sciences, social sciences, engineering and humanities) has played a significant role in helping to build a more sustainable world by working with society to address the major challenges associated with sustainable development.
'speech delivered at the conferrenc‘Sustainable development UK 09',held London, 19 march 2009. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006)‘ Scenario types and techniques:
Building owners and users do not have the same incentives to improve building performmanc in relation to, for example, energy efficiency (World Business Council for Sustainable development 2009.
World Business Council for Sustainable development. 2009) Energy efficiency in Buildings. Transforming the Market. Geneva: World Business Council for Sustainable development.
Weber, M.,Kubeczko, K.,Kaufmann, A. and Grunewald, B. 2009)‘ Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
and ZHAW Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach 805, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland 4impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c
and ZHAW Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach 805, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland*Corresponding author.
and other major diseases Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9 Integrate principles of sustainable development into country policies
of Action for the Sustainable development of Small Island Developing States and 22nd General assembly provisions) Target 15 Deal comprehensively with debt problems of developing countries through national and
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