but also in relation to sustainability and other long-term, uncertainty-ridden policy issues. There are several types of foresight approaches and methodologies,
whether this influence really goes in the right direction with regard to the intended superordinate goals such as sustainability.
experiences were made with Strategic Niche Management19 and Transition Management20 as approaches to devise forward-looking policy strategies for long-term transformations of infrastructure and sectoral innovation systems towards sustainability.
University of Twente/IPTS, Enschede, 1999 Sevilla. 38 R. Hoogma, K. M. Weber, B. Elzen, Integrated long-term strategies to induce regime shifts to sustainability:
System innovation and the Transition to Sustainability: Theory, Evidence and Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2004.41 W. Polt, K. M. Weber, Forschung, Technologie und Innovation für Wohlstand in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung.
Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 different countries in order to promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the European forest cluster.
v) identification of research areas and instruments that are needed to improve competitiveness and sustainability of the forest cluster,
and vi) implementation of transnational research program to improve competitiveness and sustainability of the forest cluster.
a Finnish sustainability consultancy. He has published in journals such as Journal of Business strategy and the Environment;
System innovation and the Transition to Sustainability, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. Cheltenham, 2005, pp. 251 281.67 D. K. R. Robinson, A. Rip, V. Mangematin, Technological agglomeration and the emergence of clusters and networks in nanotechnology, Res.
effectiveness, appropriateness, sustainability and additionality. 6. Understanding the dynamics of foresight systems in three countries A first attempt to understand the dynamics of foresight systems can be based on the evaluation of three foresight exercises;
The raised awareness of the need for consensus-building approaches in long-term vision-setting exercises in order to ensure the sustainability of resultant polices was acknowledged as another unforeseen impact of the exercise.
flexibility and the sustainability of the networks created. The inputs and outputs should exploit the compatibility and complementarity of the available areas of expertise.
such as, research and innovation, security and sustainability. The best papers presented in this conference are published in four different scientific journals
This well designed process breaks new ground in being concerned explicitly with enabling foresight as a sustainability asset for Germany's status as a R&d-innovation leader with specific elements also aimed at four innovative targets:
and many strategic decision-making processes to align future R&d priorities and innovation strategies with sustainability goals. He holds a Dr. Tech. and a Lic.
b Department Urban Water management Research at Eawag, Switzerland c Institute of environmental Engineering at ETH Zurich, Switzerland d Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems
As the sustainability of the established technical system has raised some criticism 9, 10, new solutions to urban water management are discussed more widely today.
performance and sustainability impacts of infrastructures over their long life time. Changes in context conditions outside the considered range may entail very costly adaptation measures (see e g. 17),
a systematic sustainability value tree (e g. 65) is used as a reference. Thirdly, the set of potential system alternatives is explored systematically.
Fourthly, the assessment of the options follows the well established method of sustainability value tree analysis 66,67.
Points to the left of the diagonal indicate potential sustainability deficits as the option is more desirable from the average stakeholder groups'perspective than from a balanced sustainability perspective.
Based on this argumentative material, the core team may narrow down the options to one or two system alternatives that show a high sustainability potential.
i) The core team assessed the options'generic strengths and weaknesses in reaching sustainability goals in a well balanced way for each of the different scenarios.
A comparison of the stakeholders'assessment with the sustainability evaluation of the core team offers insight into the sustainability deficits that a politically negotiated solution would entail (see Fig. 5)
Such sustainability aspects could thus be included into the elaboration of detailed recommendations in the next step. 4. 5. Utilization implications for infrastructure development The performance characteristics of the different options
Fig. 5. Sustainability deficit assessment in the Kiesental case study. 1159 E. Störmer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 The elaboration of a joint system representation by the different organizations in the Kiese catchment furthermore prepared the ground for intensified collaboration and shared visions.
lessons from sustainability foresight in German utility sectors, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (9)( 2008) 1360 1372.31 A w. Müller, Strategic foresight Prozesse strategischer Trend-und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen, Universität Zürich, Zürich, Druckerei Zentrum, 2008.32
Harald Hiessl is head of the Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems at the German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI and the deputy of this Institute.
and future sustainability were necessary. The online survey was designed as a check if the topics that were already found as future-relevant for German science
Integrating the Environment for Sustainability, Edgar Elgar Publishing, London, 2008, pp. 114 133.42 Scottish government, National Planning Framework 2 SEA Annex to the Environmental Report:
. Dempster, A self-organizing perspective on planning for sustainability, Thesis for Master of Environmental Studies in Planning, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1998.21 W. Ulrich, Critical systems heuristics, in:
and (5) FTA in security and sustainability. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014
Examples are‘Adaptive foresight'(Eriksson andweber 2008) and‘Sustainability foresight'(Truffer, Voss, and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 956 K. M. Weber et al.
medium-term impacts While it may be too early to assess the sustainability of the medium-term impacts that have become apparent 18 months after the end of the process,
Lessons for sustainability foresight in German utility sectors. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 9: 1360 72.
but in producing perceptions and insights to that body of knowledge and‘imagineering'novel ways of addressing city sustainability'(Ratcliffe, Krawczyk,
Sustainability foresight: reflexive governance in the transformation of utility systems. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 162 88.
Sustainability and reflexive governance. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 3 30.
including its societal perspectives, for instance, sustainability, security and information society. While foresight is used commonly in connection with the public-Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society,
Addressing both consensual and diverse future perspectives are crucial dimensions when dealing with sustainability, and security.
sustainability and information society issues requires typically many types of participants as well as different kinds of methods to adapt to the interests
In the security, sustainability and information society fields, stakeholders have the possibility to develop scenarios on
of which are related to sustainability and security directly, including‘‘Advancing the E2 (Environment and Energy) Frontier''and the‘‘Improving National Safety and Prestige''.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 258 Sustainability: since the Brundlandt Commission 13, many alternative definitions of sustainability have been proposed
and diverse interpretations of the concept made. Many of these are based upon the‘three-pillar'or‘triple bottom line'concept,
A quick scan was performed on foresight projects that address security, sustainability and/or information society issues. The suitability of the identified projects was discussed
we elaborate and attest its validity in the context of ex post analysis of a number of foresight projects focusing on sustainability, security and information society and their contribution to policy-making.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 263 foresight is ever more important to position foresight as one of the key supporting tools for policy-making to anticipate how major societal challenges ahead can be addressed such as those tackled in this paper, e g. security, sustainability and information society challenges.
Sustainability emerges from the exhaustion crisis of economic development based on rational‘‘growth'economics that subjugates social, cultural, political and environmental matters towards the consequences of economic growth.
Bursztyn et al. 22 consider six dimensions for sustainability; their integration comprises elements that interactwith each other.
As a consequence, the social construction of sustainable development becomes a process ofmanaging multidimensional social conflicts embedded in the six dimensions for sustainability as articulated systems:
the interdependencies among the major elements are suggested in Fig. 2. The social response to sustainability, brings the need to‘‘think globally
-Sustainability: an emphasis on environment and community stewardship often invoking the so-called triple bottom line of economic, social,
Nevertheless the sustainability school raises questions about these trade-offs without offering a framework to answer them.
and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.
The business case for sustainability The business case for sustainability is sector-specific. It is difficult for companies to build reasons for CSR with its apparent limited relevance to social and environmental risks and opportunities to a firms'core business.
Tools and standards to support business sustainability The GRI Sustainability Reporting Guidelines have created performance indicators (both quantitative and qualitative),
measuring the impact or effect of sustainability on the reporting organisation. The indicators have emerged from the combination of the GRI
since 1999 when the Dow jones Sustainability Indexes were created, closely followed by the FTSE4GOOD 24. Socially responsible investment is about investors taking ethical,
Indexes such as FTSE4GOOD Index, 4 Domini 400 Social Index and Dow jones Sustainability Index played a crucial role in the commercial breakthrough that SRI has seen over the last decades due to the fact that they allow benchmarking between the performance
flows. 3. New business models for the design, production, distribution, retail and management of products and services. 4. Responses to the challenge of sustainability and changes in demography, in consumer behaviours and in social values,
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 289 References 1 D. Large, Participation and representation, A Review of Sustainability Here and now, in part of The Great Debate:
Development Sustainability Environment, Newcastle Civic Centre on 27 september 2003 (available at: http://www. thegreatdebate. org. uk/GDDSEDL1. html, last visited on 03 october 2008.
Fourth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, European communities, 2007.20 C. H. Cagnin, An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
org/BSRSERVICES/CSR. cfm#ZURICH. 27 C. Shelton, Quantum leaps, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1997.28 NNSR, Novo Nordisk Sustainability Report, 2002 http://www
. novonordisk. com/images/Sustainability/sr02/SR2002UK. pdf. 29 M. E. Porter, M. R. Kramer, Strategy & society:
30 O. Salzmann, A. Ionescu-Somers, U. Steger, The business case for corporate sustainability: literature review and research options, European Management Journal 23 (1)( 2005) 27 36.31 U. Steger, A. Ionescu-Somers, O. Salzmann, The economic foundations of corporate
sustainability, Corporate Governance 7 (2)( 2007) 162 177.32 L. E. Preston, D. P. O'Bannon, The corporate social-financial performance relationship:
Gradually increased concerns for the environment in terms of sustainability, human and animal health, and global warming;
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
The focus of two sessions of the 2008 FTA Conference on security and sustainability may be a useful first move in this direction.
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
Promoting Action for Sustainability Through Indicators at Local Level in Europe), INTELCITIES (IST-FP6) and REFORM (Rok-FP6),
sustainability and foresight research by applying monitoring and evaluation systems, Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years.
Robinson, J.,Burch, S.,Talwar, S.,O'Shea, M. and Walsh, M. 2011),‘Envisioning sustainability:
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
Rutger van Merkerk is currently a Phd student (Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, University of Utrecht,
Harro van Lente is currently assistant professor at the Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation University of Utrecht, The netherlands.
insofar as they do not conflict with sustainability principles. In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.
The big challenge is to satisfy multiple and diverse social demands without putting the sustainability principles at risk.
determining parametric implications Once functional implications have been determined, a set of parametric indicators related to standard sustainability issues (Kates et al.
determining spatial implications After parameterizing and projecting a set of sustainability indicators, the spatial implications of each scenario can be displayed with graphic tools.
The medium-low density communities and their traditional lifestyle and production systems have not posed any threat to its sustainability in the past.
B Promote an educational system that transmits the values of sustainability, innovation, social commitment and solidarity.
Whichever scenario materialises in the near future, the sustainability paradigm in Spain will be achieved, depending on the fulfilment of a number of prerequisites:
in order to achieve sustainability. PAGE 332 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B All public administrations European, national
B Social intelligence regarding sustainability must significantly increase if lifestyles and consumption behaviour are to be changed in the desired direction.
Meadows, D. 1998), Indicators and Information systems for Sustainable development, The Sustainability Institute, Balaton Group, Montpelier, VT.
It is perhaps not ill-founded to state that the treatment of central challenges of the sustainability discussion,
In this situation, is it possible to find ways to consider knowledge about the potential impacts of a technology which admittedly is gained with high uncertainty and its assessment with regard to sustainability already in early phases of technology development?
in order to identify and to strengthen positive sustainability effects, the bsustainability potentialq of technologies, and to recognise, to mitigate
or to even avoid negative impacts on sustainability? Wanting to do this completely ex ante certainly means to overstrain the ambitions of this intention.
which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
Together with the hopes for nanotechnology's exploitation for wealth creation, competitiveness, sustainability and health, growing concerns about its potential to change ways of living,
in order to achieve coherence among network partners in progressing towards higher levels of sustainability. They argue that, in addition to governments
in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability. Keywords: network vision; management framework and path to sustainable development;
and D. Loveridge Sustainability can be defined as the capability of an organisation to persist into the long-term future:
sustainable developmentwould then be needed the processes tomove towards sustainability (SIGMA2001. Therefore, policy-makers'responses to sustainability are multifaceted choices that must consider the interdependencies between the many dimensions of sustainable development.
Hence, business sustainability evolves from the linear concept of a value chain introduced by Porter (1985) or the current paradigm of supply chain management or value nets (Bovet and Martha 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d, 2000e.
The analysis of value within a firm (Porter 1980, 1985a, 1985b,1991, 1997), through the integration of customers into the chain (Mcstravic 1999) and later the incorporation of suppliers/deliverers as well as customers (Bovet and Martha 2000
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
the redefinition is based on universal principles (Covey 1997) shaped by six dimensions of sustainability (Bursztyn et al. 1999;
Section 3 describes that networked sustainability goes one step beyond the value net by consideriin the global system within
and Watts 2002) are the cornersstone of networked sustainability. Moreover, the value activities in the network must align
and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
to enable business networks 801 Figure 1. Business sustainability activities model. Source: Cagnin (2005. development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle.
For the six dimensions of sustainability to be embedded in a firm's core operations, its operatiiona activities must be integrated throughout its network and in alignment with a common strategy across the network.
Rather than looking for one generic business model for sustainability firms should work out their own model that brings new opportunities through dialogue
in which each and every node of the network becomes an embedded participant that actively shapes the path to a common vision of sustainability Source:
The aim of the Maturity Model is to shape a possible business path towards sustainable developmment outlining how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability.
The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 806 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 3. Business sustainability maturity model.
Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration level sustainability net Strategy-Overhead,
change factors as an unpredictable serendipity-Sustainability functionally isolated; firm's main objective is to gain capital efficiency-Objectives only partly known-Systematisation of existing practices-Objectives identified
and intution-Formal and powerful processes-Sustainability-driven firm-Positive emotions (ratio at or above 2. 90) lead to creativity across the sustainability net, focus on innovative ideas-Participative process;
level sustainability net Technology-Focus on manual individdua routine automatiion craft development character-Embryonic-Databased, IT used to build systems that cross functions
and responsibly by integrating the six dimensions of sustainability into its core operations. The framewoor then exhibits the promise of embedding, in its structure,
and shows the necessary activities and the interrelationships that need to be managed systemically to shape business sustainability.
to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
and reviewing the vision of sustainability Strategy Establish leadership commitment; and strategic architecture definition and review Partnerships Identify
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
and the network vision for sustainability (as it ought to be) in order to keep the firm on track of its designated vision Monitor the business Collecting
and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
performance reporting Sustain the business Achieve the identified vision of sustainability and giving subsidies for the creation of a new vision Verify
and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin
this would also enable the development of a common base of knowledge and sustainability vision,
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technollogy Development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
An information architecture to enable business sustainability. Phd thesis. Manchester: University of Manchester. Cajazeira, J. E. R. 1997.
A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
On sustainability. http://phps. portals. mbs. ac. uk/Denisloveridge (accessed June 2012, go to personal page).
The SIGMA project sustainability in practice. The SIGMA guidelines: Pilot Draft, SIGMA Project Management Team. http://www. projectsigma. co. uk/Guidelines/default. asp (accessed January 2004) Tuomi, I. 2011.
to enable business networks 817 Appendix 2. Existing business sustainability tools and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
Business Business Business Business Business Business Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustain. Sustain. Sustain. Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 OECD guide
OECD guide OECD guide OECD guide OECD guide CRT OECD CSR OECD CSR OECD CSR Lisbon CRT UNGC Lisbon Lisbon
Furthermore it is time to define a vision for sustainable development to be pursued in alignment with the seven dimensions of sustainability,
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
in order to shape sustainability and learning along the process. Monitor the business C It is to monitor all necessary information of how the business is running
Her research interests are especially in future-oriented research in linking ecological and social aspects of sustainability and in social impact assessment.
Using the adaptation of businesses to sustainability considerations as an example, Cagnin and Loveridge (2011) discuss challenges as well as detailed models and processes.
The shift to a larger frame of reference could be attributed in part to the broader sustainability narrative
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
and sustainability 43 (See http://www. sitra. fi/en/articles/2012/strategic-design-finlandsneewapproach-problem-solving).
He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
The proposed approach is illustrated by means of a long-term policy-making case related to the transition of energy system toward sustainability.
Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies. Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
If the goal is an energy transition toward sustainability, then this ensemble as a whole is unlikely to be acceptable
and a short planning and construction time for Technology 1 also hinder the transition toward sustainability,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 3 E. Pruyt, J. H. Kwakkel, G. Yucel, C. Hamarat, Energy transitions towards sustainability:
A good example can be found with the scenario practice developed by the Natural Step3 (see for instance Givaudan case in Appendix 1). The focal points of the scenarios are sustainability concerns and criteria.
Givaudan (2011) Sustainability, translating vision into action. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at www. givaudan. com. 10.
, Stockholm, 2004.43 P. J. Beers, A. Veldkamp, F. Hermans, D. van Apeldoorn, J. M. Vervoort, K. Kok, Future sustainability and images, Futures
ethics and sustainability, of emerging technologies mainly inside agriculture, food production, biotechnology and bioenergy. Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies,
from forecasting to technological assessment to sustainability studies, J. Clean. Prod. 16 (2008) 977 987.49 TAB, in:
Increasingly, innovation policy strategies such as the European commission's Innovation Union flagship initiative 3 are addressing socioeconomic challenges such as sustainability, health, and security.
Sustainability is another realm where the need for foresight methods that are able to unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories is strongly emerging.
Sustainability researchers are emphasising that optimisation of current patterns of production and consumption is not sufficient to achieve the order of magnitude in reduction of ecological footprint required to preserve the earth's eco-sphere.
8) Systemic sustainability innovation: Innovation patterns fostering systemtransitions towards sustainability rather than isolated product development are required more andmore
in order to address societal challenges. This requires consideration of social and ecological aspects throughout the entire innovation process.
Sriram, Developing a Sustainability Manufacturing Maturity Model. The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010:
nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.
with a focus on long term sustainability indicators. These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,
but the sustainability of the project is expected to happen only in five years. This means that there is a need to establish clear priorities with deadlines
An information Architecture to Enable Business Sustainability,(Phd thesis), University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, 2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
A New Scientific understanding of Living Systems, Knopf Publishing Group, New york, 1997.55 B. Dempster, A Self-organizing Systems Perspective on Planning for Sustainability,(B. Sc. thesis), University
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
in order to deveelo more resilient policies towards sustainability. The analysis leads to specific process recommendatiion for national horizon scannings related to how data are gathered,
In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
and develop resilient policies towards sustainability Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team
and impact (taking into account the sustainability dimensioon) At the end of the 2007 round, the issues were published in a final report.
In The netherlands scan, explicit attention was given to the sustainability of society in the light of different sets of shared societal values for
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