Area

Area (650)
New area (6)
Specific area (10)
Technological area (11)
Thematic area (28)
Topic area (19)

Synopsis: Area: Area:

A predecessor project at national level was conducted in the area of transport technology policy 43.472 E. A. Eriksson

what connect the framework scenarios with the addressee's area of responsibility. Their exploration could usefully be started at the initial workshop,

This is why issues of policy coordination both between different policy areas and between public and private actors have started to play such an important role in policymakkingwithin such a comprehensive setting,

These projects cover a range of different application areas like production systems, transport and mobility systems, regional innovation systems, information and communication technologies and energy technologies.

Building the Nordic Research and Innovation Area in Hydrogen, Summary Report of Nordic H2 Energy Foresight project, Risoe National Laboratory, Risoe, 2005.481 E. A. Eriksson, K

consisting of four research areas and 23 sub-areas. 6 Stakeholder participation, too, was based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process.

decomposition was facilitated by the framework for research sub-areas, as well as by the treatment of research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could be assessed with the Internet-based decision support tool.

and sub-areas are listed on page http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/task1. htm. 487 V. Brummer et al./

and sub-area the issue would fit best within a taxonomical framework that was developed for the research issues.

Researchers were asked first to choose which sub-areas they were interested in, whereafter they could assess those issues that they were interested in.

Within each of the 23 sub-areas, some 10 to 50 Researchers provided assessments while more than 200 Researchers in total took part in the assessment activity.

Industrial leaders were asked first to choose which sub-areas they were interested in, whereafter they could assess the issues they deemed interesting.

Within each of the sub-areas 5 15 7 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/registration. htm. 8 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/task1. htm. 9 See http

RPM was employed not in a normative sense for making definitive choices among the issues that had been proposed within the research sub-areas;

Within each sub-area, it was envisaged that the identification of the 5 10 most relevant issues would be useful in building the workshop agendas;

The analysis was carried out separately for each sub-area. The core index values were illustrated through histograms.

Results for the sub-area 1. 3 are shown in Figure 1 where the labels for the issues are shown on the horizontal axis

and the corresponding CI values are shown on the vertical axis. For each sub-area, the participants in the ensuing workshops (as described below) did not have to delve into all proposed issues;

which research issues and sub-areas would be particularly suitable for the international research Fig. 1. Core index values for research issues in sub-area 1. 3 (Creating new functionalities

This structure differed somewhat from the framework that was employed in the structuring of research areas and sub-areas.

Some sub-areas (e g.,, creating new functionalities or improved to materials/products) were covered in several workshops,

whereby all research areas and sub-areas that were relevant to the workshop were covered. Within each sub-area

the workshop participants were asked expressly i) to comment on issues with a high CI value, ii) to highlight issues

the workshop participants filled a questionnaire form where they were asked to evaluate the relevance of each research sub-area for European collaboration by using a seven-point Likertsccal

and to list the five most interesting research issues per sub-area. The participants were asked also to make a tentative recommendation on how they would distribute funds (in terms of percentages) among the sub-areas

based on the quality of solicited research issues and the workshop discussions (approx. 1 h). Towards the end of the workshop, the results from these questionnaires were compiled separately for each country

to form working groups of funding organizations who would collaborate towards the development of calls for proposals covering those research sub-areas that they were interested in funding.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 research sub-area, participants were encouraged to comment on the issues within it (approx. 1 h). Third, for each of the research sub-areas,

the participating funding organization were asked to give a preliminary estimate about how much funding they might be willing to allocate to the sub-area in the forthcoming research program.

, participating countries, thematic sub-areas, levels of aggregation, modalities of research), which in turn leads to processual requirements such as modularity and scalability.

and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

social and ecological areas as well as to start monitoring and detailed research in these fields. Consequently, foresight activities can

in order to identify both promising areas for different types of regulation and their possible impacts. In the following, we report some foresight studies,

In the area of standardisation, it is applied already in various contexts. Data requirements/indicators: The simple quantitative use of science and technology indicators in order to detect future challenges for the regulatory framework is not sufficient.

in order to be able to provide lists of challenges and areas for future regulatory action. General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology:

In the area of standards as parts of the regulatory system we are able to reference a series of relevant surveys.

In a survey among German service companies, Mörschel and Schwengels 35 present a ranking of future standardisation areas according to their priority,

revealing conflicting as well as consensus areas. Delphi-based foresight exercises, therefore, were used repeatedly and increasingly in the context of policymakking building on their capacity to facilitate an alignment of actors'expectations through interactions. 3. 3. 2. Examples

The survey results could be used to identify those areas which are hampered either by regulation or

However, the sound experiences of the Japanese and German Delphi studies underline that foresight methodologies can be applied for the identification and setting priorities of future areas of regulation and therefore also of standardisation

Furthermore, the small-scale Delphi survey focusing on the future demand for standards in the ICT area confirmed the general applicability of this approach,

and areas requiring different types of new regulations or an adjustment of existing regulations in the future.

and can be applied in all areas, covering all possible future driving forces, but also possible impacts of regulations and standards.

Since more than ten years he is conducting studies both in the area of technology foresight, but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516

which allow the Frontiers network to develop strategies for a number of different issues relevant to particular areas within nanotechnologies for the life sciences.

Also, in the field of biomedical research, off the back of the Human Genome Project15, a major emphasis in cell biology over the last decade has been focused on in areas related to genomics, proteomics, medical diagnostics,

or planned within each functional area. Examples for selection of cell would include optical manipulation of cells in microfluidic devices

There can be a number of technological paths towards one application area. This is because the labels(‘medical diagnostics';‘

what we show here as the possible future path/paradigm at the level of an application area (drug discovery) may also be called an innovation system.

Actors can and do link up with application areas such as those mapped in the top section of the Figure.

which redefines an application area as a socio-technical path. In order to really change a paradigmatic path

For the purpose of aiding development to strategic research area setting within Frontiers, this map (and any future evolution) is

Section 4 described and explored a use of MPM as support for the articulation and ongoing assessment of Strategic research Areas based on dynamics of the field as a whole.

in order to direct research and seek out possible actors who could co-construct an innovation chain based on the Strategic research Areas of Frontiers. 2. Broadening the perspectives of the practitioners participating in the exercise to test the robustness of MPM as part of a strategy support system

If path creation at the level of application areas is the aggregate outcome of activities at actor levels,

Such diffusion could be accelerated with support of FP7 Activity Areas. At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment

These impacts typically fall in areas such as: Knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption; Social capital and networking; The evolution of strategies to cope with

'The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory.

6 is shown by the lines connecting the factors. 3. Contribution of foresight to the emerging knowledge societies The above conceptual framework facilitates the identification of areas where foresight impacts may contribute to the strengthening

'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,

In terms of immediate impacts, the areas under study benefited from increased recognition, while new combinations of experts and stakeholders were brought also together.

and b. This model is depicted in Fig. 5. 8. Impact area specificity: networks and actor alignment Given the peculiar nature of the task at hand, namely the search for diverse impacts (from changes in social capital to more informed publics and better networking) that may

For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking and actors'alignment is discussed.

Several analytical tools have also been developed in this area, e g. social network analysis 22, transaction cost analysis 23 and actor network theory 24, 25.

While the incompatibility and non-complementarity of actors'areas of expertise within a constituency are major sources of potential misalignment,

The inputs and outputs should exploit the compatibility and complementarity of the available areas of expertise.

The development of a common impact assessment model requires a clear understanding of the way foresight influences specific impact areas.

given the diverse nature of the impact areas in question, a finer level of analysis needs to be applied to the different areas of the impact assessment framework.

It is wise to study each of these impact areas separately in order to identify case-specific internal criteria and external factors.

A first attempt was made to study the specificities of the areas relating to networking and actor alignment, mainly based on organisational behaviour and governance theories.

and factors specific to particular impact areas that are not that visible when studying foresight impacts as a whole.

Further work in this area will study other impact areas from the perspective of relevant theories

in order to identify area-specific criteria and factors that foresight exercises need to take into account when targeting such impacts.

which the European research and Innovation Area can evolve. Third, skipping the national level, futures are built for the universities themselves,

The European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) and universities; Trends and drivers for changes; Multilevel governance 1. Introduction The first universities emerged as responses to the need to harness the expanding intellectual forces of the era to the increasingly demanding knowledge requirements of the surrounding society

It is followed by futures for the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA), 5 as the more immediate surroundings for universities,

and Innovation Area can evolve in different directions, depending on the main features of the EU to a significant extent,

Then the European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) is taken into account as a‘mezzo level'system.

considering different future states first for the EU and the European research and Innovation Area, and then for universities themselves.

as well as in other areas such as new skills acquisition and patents management etc. The existence of the Technology barometer is itself a provocative approach to innovation policy futures.

Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,

seeking decisions robust under a variety conflicting forces 5. Uncertainty in new design arises in at least two areas 6. Technological design is an inherently uncertain process

In summary, the hierarchical random graph did seem to anticipate new technological changes in the area of new standards for accessible rich Internet applications.

Furthermore, the structured representation of the data may help identify areas where competences may need to be strengthened further or even completely restored.

socio-technical paradigm of central generation plants with wide area distribution networks. The presumed superiority of this paradigm relied on a series of assumptions,

if points are located in the diagonal area pointing to the upper right corner. Points to the left of the diagonal indicate potential sustainability deficits as the option is more desirable from the average stakeholder groups'perspective than from a balanced sustainability perspective.

Inhabitants of peripheral areas leave the region while centrally located villages experience an increase of commuters to the city of Berne.

and in the top/flop scenario they were afraid of a disconnection of peripheral areas.

One implication could be that the sewer network expansion to new peripheral settlement areas might be stopped

Altogether, a substantial shift away from the fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches has taken place in all FTA areas.

which we have chosen to be the risk assessment focus in this paper an important area with the well-established and relatively long risk assessment tradition,

and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks. FIA thus steers the risk assessment to a more anticipatory and proactive direction.

It will address how the conditions for production of renewable energy in the Nordic area might change due to global warming.

FTA or risk assessment processes can be very detailed processes focusing on certain area or place,

the contribution from other areas is needed also. This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

Indicator-based country comparisons reveal the strengths, weaknesses and related possible areas for intervention and policy-making,

and identifies possible areas for development activities in national innovation policy in the future. Both parts are structured in a similar way enabling the linking of ex-post and ex-ante analyses mutually

Each partial area is measured by using a combined indicator in order to calculate an arithmetic average value of several statistical indicators'normalised values between-2 and+2. For example,

In the same way other combined composite indicators determine Finland's proportional rating compared to the reference group countries in different areas of technology barometer (the content of Technology barometer 2007 is presented in Appendix B

Among others, the depicted areas include the understanding of knowledge and knowledge management. The indicators depicting an above-average

The weakest partial area proved to be the exploitation of ICT. Compared to the previous indicator studies (Technology barometer 2004 and 2005

The positive news here is that these areas continue to attract young people. However, the role of user-produced content in the media will increase.

the technology barometer has proven to be capable of casting additional light on bottlenecks and problem areas within the national innovation environment in Finland.

JRC (2002) and compilation by OECD. Area/name of composite indicator Economy Composite of Leading indicators (OECD) OECD International Regulation Database (OECD) Economic Freedom of the World

1) Identification of new focuses in research and technology 2) Designation of areas for crosscutting activities 3) Exploration of fields for strategic partnerships 4) Derivation of priority activity lines

and working out the fields but also for coordinating with other topic coordinators in the crosscutting areas.

These crosscutting areas were additional starting points for searches. Fig. 3. Timeline of the methodology and different outputs at the end. 1190 K. Cuhls et al./

and sub-areas), a nationwide online survey was carried out in September 2008. The results from this survey, expert interviews and a set of criteria were supposed to be inputs to select interesting candidates for BMBF relating to the targets 1) and 2) of the process. 3. 3. The online survey Intentionally

The last part of the survey concerned the single research questions in the areas. Again it was asked for a judgement on a fivestteplikert scale (from very important to unimportant.

Kerstin Cuhls is coordinator of the business area Foresight and Futures research in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.

Before, she worked as senior researcher in the area of foresight for the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission (JRC-IPTS.

Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

Over the recent decades, it has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

A limited relevance for decision-making in policy processes is recognized by a review of practice in the broader area of foresight:

(and either might be the case) scenario practitioners need to pay more attention to windows of opportunity, the areas of maximum uncertainty and doubt,

nano-technology and nano artifacts that are being adopted widely in areas such as materials, ICTS, and medicine. As a result of the growing interest for nano-field, nanoartiifact are now reaching the consumer markets within a large number of branches.

an area ignored in all Foresight studies until now. Sponsors will need to put much effort into understanding these behavioural matters

and (c) trends for increased inclusivity across all areas of policy making. Inclusivity is a matter of creating trust across a wide range of communities in discussions of future developments, especially in science and technology.

If inclusivity is to stretch into these important areas, great patience and extremely good communication skills will be needed. 1210 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 clime.

the governance landscape surrounding nanotechnology and the application areas it will affect, and how these may co-evolve with each other.

and framing shifts within certain areas of the chain, in the framing conditions (see coordinating mechanisms) or the whole system,

the codes are positioned here as useful additions to existing (well regulated) areas like medical devices 6..By the end of 2008 advanced cantilever arrays

complexity of nano and the lack of coherent regulatory infrastructure means big delays for certain areas..

Delft University (NL) on multilevel analysis of body area networks (to be published in 2010). Also the multilevel approach similar to 2 was used in one of the Frontiers Constructive TA exercises on the drug delivery sector,

The exercise has identified through its panels about 6 10 focal competence areas and, for each of these,

It is worth highlighting that the exercise has identified a competence area linked to the financial and economic crisis of 2008 09,

but the area has attracted increased interest in the last 10 or 20 years. However a significant difference between today's knowledge-based economies and the industrial economies of 30 or 50 years ago is that technological development has become crucial for economic development

and governments have an interest in the overall priorities of national expenditure on these areas.

Foresight is a part of the much larger area of strategy activities in general, and of the range of methods and systematic approaches existing in the strategy field.

With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,

the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight

The COST A22 Action on Foresight methodologies and the appearance of several journals dedicated to this area are just a few indicators of this.

Foresight processes form a rational-analytical decision machine, capable of identifying areas that yield the greatest economic and social benefits.

2) Definition of strategic areas; and (3) Elaboration of the communication format. The actors involved in developing the plan were primarily members of the research council and employees of the Research Agency.

On the basis of these discussions, seven strategic areas were defined for the Strategy plan. Therefore, the strategic areas can to some extent be seen as representing the main areas of research in science and technology,

so that the complete field is covered, integrated with specific current topics and relevant perspectives. During the process a parallel discussion took place about a new measure to be employed in the council's funding function.

The research consortia instrument was added to the list of seven strategy areas for the Strategy plan The eight areas were:(

and approved the areas prioritised in the programme. A third funding source for energy research, a New energy and Environment Research programme, was established also in the period through the Strategic research Council, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.

primarily in individually selected priority areas within the energy field. Staff from the Strategic research Council played a passive role in the core group.

it was decided that strategy development from early 2003 should be concentrated on four areas: biomass energy, solar cells, wind energy and fuel cells.

These priority areas were decided by the Danish energy authority in collaboration with their counterparts in the PSO R&d programme.

The selection of areas basically reflected Danish energy policy and its focus on environmentally friendly energyproduuctio technologies,

The selection of only four priority areas resulted in a stronger and narrower technology focus than the broader priority areas of the Energy research programme's earlier strategies.

Previously, standing advisory committees for each of the priority areas had existed with membeer from industry and research institutions.

Instead, the core group lead the strategy work in the four areas, supported by a few experienced consultants.

1) Analysis of the state of affairs in the area, leading to draft proposal of a strategy plan;(

2) Discussion of the proposal with the actors in the area at a hearing meeting;(

whereas the follow-up activities and the roadmaps for some of the areas are being undertaken currently.

In the second half of 2003 and in 2004, two other areas were defined as priorities for strategy development.

First, work on hydrogen technology was initiated, an area with application to research on fuel cells. Second, strategy activities concerning energy-efficient technologies and biofuels were launched by the Danish energy authority.

for the other priority areas of technology roadmap exercises were recommended as a follow-up activity. It was, in general,

and members of the core group knew many of the actors in the area. There was a relatively strong network, both informal and formal, between the programme management and the established industrial and research actors in the field of energy technology.

descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization

supporting existing areas, the opposite of priority setting The strategy of new technologies: technology and not science-discipline-oriented The strategy of positions of strength:

His areas of work are systems of innovation and governance of research and innovation in the fields of eco-innovation and energy innovation.

area=52. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014

This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:09 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:

Furthermore, different sorts of things might be prioritissed including scientific fields, industrial areas, research facilities, types of research performing institutes, and so on.

instead to speak of the need to identify‘niche areas'with the help of prioritisation processes.

3) Granularity of areas to be prioritised. There is an inherent tension between, on the one hand, a desire to identify topic areas sufficiently focused as to yield specific policy implications,

an area where there tends to be extensive disagreement among foresight participants. 4) Criteria for prioritisation.

where researchers and research users were brought together in broad S&t area groupings for the first time to discuss

and develop those domain areas that might be of interest, but that are developed still weakly in Luxembourg.

Several particiipant rightly made the point that consideration of domain priority areas could not be done in isolation from discussions of research infrastructures, the new University, and so on.

Rather than further prioritise the 18 (Level 3) research domain areas, 11 the natural FNR response was to provide the MCHER with a list of six (Level 2) research areas (essentially headings) under

and sought to re-prioritise the research domain areas itself. To understand why 18 research domains should be considered too many by the MCHER,

'i e. areas of potential economic success which may only be achieved through a knowledge base developed in Luxembourg.

This expectation is informed by the so-called‘sovereignty niches'areas where the traditional wealth of Luxembourg has been built owing to geographical (steel) or legislative (banking industry) specificities,

To begin with, the exercise was designed first and foremost to identify several domain areas around which to formulate new FNR programmes.

It was supposed not to identify just two or three‘competence niche'areas, since the FNR is mandated to serve all of the national research community.

Foresight exercises might provide a platform for nascent niche areas to gain greater prominence, but foresight is unsuited often to the identification of niche areas de novo.

Instead, a better STI policy strategy is to foster an innovation system that is sufficiently flexible to support such areas at their time of emergence. 5. 3. Deliberative processes Foresight exercises are characterised by deliberation between various stakeholders, often in workshhop and working groups.

However, such deliberative forums require careful planning and must be scheduled appropriately. While this was understood by the FNR Secretariat

when thematic domain areas are being prioritised. Finally, as discussed earlier, EWS participants challenged the validity

the baseline phase should not have attempted to identify priority areas at all. Instead, full attention should have been given to ensuring the validity of baseline

In some areas the existence of one (or few) dominant actors influenced the process right from the outset (Thorsteinsdottir 2000.

In these areas, the composition of workshop participants was much more uniform and the level of personal conflicts (trench wars) was much lower.

'the interests of the participants were more widely spread (reflecting the reality of Luxembourg's research in that area)

and that the FNR‘repackaged'the 18‘domain priorities'into six‘area priorities'.'The purpose of this repackaging was not only to present the results at a granularity level perceived to be more useful to the MCHER,

or another in the online survey (Phase 1) and in the thematic group workshops (Phase 2). This meant that expert assessments of domain areas against the criteria were readily available to draw upon.

2.‘Competence niches'refer to areas of potential economic success that develop from the establishment of an exceptionally strong knowledge base in a particular domain. 3. As the GDP of Luxembourg has increased by 50%(from¤22 to 33.1 billion) between 2000 and 2006,

with most domain areas assessed by no more than a few dozen researchers at most and usually by far fewer people.

there seemed little basis for choosing between the 18 areas. Moreover, this number of priorities across the whole of the research system seemed reasonable

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