Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2006:
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research, A-1220 Vienna, Austria Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 14 march 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning.
Proceedings of the SCORE Workshop, Copenhagen, 20 21 april 2006, TNO, Delft, 2006.30 H. Van Zuylen, K. M. Weber, Opportunities and limitations of European innovation policy
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, E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 1 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS
The questionnaire was open from December 2005 until Mid-january 2006. For each issue, Researchers were asked first to assess the issue with regard to Novelty (i e.,
The questionnaire was open in January 2006. Within each of the sub-areas 5 15 7 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/registration. htm. 8 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/task1. htm. 9 See http
Based on the results from all preceding phases, a workshop for funding organizations was organized at the end of March 2006 to examine these results and, more specifically,
Mak. 5 (1)( 2006) 65 88.17 A. Salo, T. Könnölä, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
Totti Könnölä (M. Sc. 2001, D. Tech. 2006) is Researcher at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville.
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D-10623 Berlin, Germany Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 19 october 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.
Change 73 (2006) 467 482.12 O k. Flechtheim, Futurologie Möglichkeiten und Grenzen, Frankfurt/M./Berlin, 1968.13 O. Helmer, Social Technology, Basic books, New york/London, 1966.14 J. W. Forrester
J. 26 (4)( 2006. 38 European commission Enterprise Directorate-General, Programming Mandate Addressed to CEN, CENELEC and ETSI in the Field of Services, European commission, Brussels, 2003.39 K. Blind, S. Gauch, Frictions
explanations and solutions, EURAS Proceedings 2006, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz, Aachen, 2006, pp. 61 70.40 T. J. Gordon, O. Helmer, Report on a Long-range Forecasting
and holds the chair on Innovation Economics at the Berlin University of Technology since 2006. In addition he is head of the competence center Regulation and Innovation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research.
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, The netherlands Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 5 july 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.
Frontiers initiated in 2006 one such programme of Future oriented technology assessment activities (FTA. FTA is used here as an umbrella term for similar forward-looking and/or interactive characteristics of TA approaches.
'4 Even though group leaders may use roadmap-type forecasts to organize financial support for their research. 5 As the Dutch Minacned consortium did in 2006 with their‘Roadmap Micro/Nanotechnology in Food';
Fourteen selected practitioners attended the workshop on 12 june 2006 in Amsterdam. Due to the aims and constraints of this paper we have to 529 D. K. R. Robinson,
At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.
a young start-up company initiated in February 2006 with intentions to be the systems integrator of a lab-on-a-chip device focused on a specific application in the medical sector.
EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4. 33 J. J. Deuten, Cosmpolitanising Technologies:
18 july September 2006) Number 3 4. 49 M. Callon, J. Law, A. Rip, Mapping the dynamics of science and technology, The Macmillan Press Ltd.
Actuators B 92 (3)( 2003) 315 325.54 J. El-Ali, P. K. Sorger, K. F. Jensen, Cells on chips, Nature 442 (2006.
K. R. Robinson, The use of the path concept and emerging irreversibilities in the analysis and modulation of nanotechnologies, EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4
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Ken Guy b, 1 a University of Manchester-PREST/MIOIR, Manchester, UK b Wise guys Ltd.,UK Received 28 september 2006;
assessing rationale, process and impact, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2006) 761 777.9 A. Havas, Context, focus and coherence of foresight programmes, Lessons from the Czech republic and Hungary, Paper
which she resigned from at the end of 2006. Research interests include the areas of research evaluation and impact assessment, foresight, national innovation systems and policies, scientific advice for policy-making and risk governance.
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H-1112, Budapest, Hungary Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 19 december 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Universities have traditionally been key players in producing
J. Educ. 41 (2)( 2006) 169 202.6 P. H. Aghion, et al. Why Reform Europe's Universities?
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29 september 2006, available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,
Policy 35 (10)( 2006) 1450 1464.43 EC, Key Figures 2005, Towards a European research area, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2005.44 EC Cohesion Policy
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Building on the success of the 2004 and 2006 events, the third edition of the Conference in October 2008
Out of the 166 abstracts that were submitted (50 more than in 2006), the Conference Scientific Committee selected 56 papers in order to build a comprehensive Conference program.
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (4)( 2006) 457 582.
Totti Könnölä is a research fellow at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre in the European commission.
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These cases were run between late 2006 and early 2008. In the next section, we present the process
Pol. 35 (5)( 2006) 609 625.12 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in: S. Rayner, E. L. Malone (Eds.
Pol. 35 (7)( 2006) 1069 1082.15 C. R. Schwenk, The Essence of Strategic decision making, Lexington Books, Lexington, 1988.16 T. A. Larsen, W. Gujer
)( 2006) 1389 1396.18 I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, R. Popper, The many faces of foresight, in:
towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008
knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (8)( 2006) 942 955.29 W. Xiang, K c. Clarke, The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Environ.
Policy 13 (3)( 2006) 254 264.41 Vision 2030 Consortium, Vision 2030 Final Report. An Investigation into the Long-term challenges and Opportunities for the UK's Strategic Highway Network, Highway Agency for England, London, 2003.42 Office of Science and Technology, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, Foresight Directorate
, London, 2006 Project Overview. 43 J. A. Paravantis, D. A. Georgakellos, Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses, Technol.
Change 73 (6)( 2006) 607 629.1161 E. Störmer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 49 K. M. Hillman, B. A. Sandén, Exploring technology paths:
Change 70 (4)( 2003) 359 384.54 O. Renn, Participatory processes for designing environmental policies, Land use Policy 23 (1)( 2006) 34 43.55 B. Truffer, Wissensintegration
Internationale Standortbestimmung für den Wasser-und Abwassersektor, GWA (9)( 2006) 733 742.69 A. Herlyn, M. Maurer, Status quo der Schweizer Abwasserentsorgung:
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research period 2006 2009. The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight
Concepts and Precepts, Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Hampshire, 2006, pp. 9 17,2006. 28 T. Uusitalo, R. Koivisto and W. Schmit, Proactive risk assessment of critical infrastructures.
2006 http://www. flickr. com/photos/51072101@N00/91829174/(read 13.12.2007). 32 H. Weinrich, The TOWS matrix:
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)( 2006) 1 14.12 E. A. Eriksson, M. Weber, Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technol.
Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 767 777.21 Y. Garb, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Scenarios in society
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario axis technique, Futures 38 (1)( 2006) 15 30.27 D. Groves, D. Knopman, R. Lempert, S. Berry,
Insights from the FORLEARN Mutual learning Process, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 2006, Joint research Centre/European commission. 32 G. P. Hodgkinson, G. Wright, Confronting strategic
, 2006, pp. 57 62.35 P. Van Notten, A m. Sleegers, M. B. A. van Asselt, The future shocks:
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this element linked up with the difference between two regulation reviews in the UK during 2006.
Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances (EC 1907/2006) which entered into force on 1 june 2007.
18 july September 2006) 411 428 Numbers 3 4,-4. 10 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA
Manag. 18 (2006) 285 298.14 Targeted (and used) for transition policy. 4 15 Used for open-ended roadmapping by technology developers at early stages of development 6. 16 Used for exploring industrial/sectorial alignment/misalignments. 17 See Haico
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It is acknowledged generally that the theoretical rationale for foresight exercises is supported by the perspective (or school) of evolutionary economics (Georghiou and Keenan 2006.
but with tighter cooperation with the strategic research council's activitiies Other reforms are expected in coming years as a result of the Government's Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy (The Prime minister's Office 2006).
. and M. Keenan. 2006. Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rationale, process and impact. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77.
The Prime minister's Office. 2006: Progress, innovation and cohesion. Strategy for Denmark in the global economy Summary.
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(2006 2007) conducted in one of Europe's smallest and wealthiest countries, Luxembourg. The country's small size brings into sharp viewmany of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.
FNR 2006. 1 As with other small countries, Luxembourg has limited public resources devoted to research
although the level of gross expenditure on r&d (GERD) in Luxembourg at 1. 25%of GDP in 2006 still remains one of the lowest in the Europeea Union (EU). Afuller reviewof the evolution of the Luxembourg research system is offered by Meyer
000 000 120 000 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Public research centres FNR UL Figure 1. Public
The OECD Review of Innovation policy was conducted in 2006 and commissioned by the MCHER. The Review report (see OECD 2007) suggested a number of needed reforms in the system of public sector research governance
should somehow be engaged in priority-setting processes. 4. Outline of FNR Foresight FNR Foresight has been delivered as a two phase process (FNR 2006, 2007a,
and Keenan (2006) for a fuller account of the conduct of Phase 1). Based on these results,
Thus, a four-level granularity schema quickly emerged during Phase 1 (FNR 2006) and was applied for‘nesting'research domains in the‘long list'(see Table 1). The FNR was interested most in Level 3 research domains as this was considered the most‘natural'level at which to formulate new FNR programmes.
'as foresight results rarely‘speak for themselves'(Georghiou and Keenan 2006). 6. 1. Sense-making and the construction of political ownership As the main S&t policy body in Luxembourg,
2.‘Competence niches'refer to areas of potential economic success that develop from the establishment of an exceptionally strong knowledge base in a particular domain. 3. As the GDP of Luxembourg has increased by 50%(from¤22 to 33.1 billion) between 2000 and 2006,
and an inappropriate workshop format used (see Glod, Duprel, and Keenan 2006). 13. In fact, interdisciplinarity had been underplayed somewhat throughout the conduct of the exercise.
FNR. 2006. FNR Foresight Baseline Report. Luxembourg: Fonds National de la Recherche (unpublished. FNR. 2007a.
and M. Keenan. 2006. Evaluating national technology foresight exercises. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77.
and M. Keenan. 2006. Luxembourg Foresight a‘standard'exercise in a‘peculiar'setting? Paper presented at the Second FTA Conference, 28 29 september, Sevilla, Spain.
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, Austria In 2006 the City ofvienna launched a foresight and strategy process to revisit its urban research and innovation policy.
policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
The core process was conducted between autumn 2006 and autumn 2007. At its end stood indeed a number of concrete measures to be taken,
From a different angle, we should acknowledge a fervent need for continuous adaptation and readjustment of policies and related instruments (Carlsson, Elg, and Jacobsson 2006.
Weber 2006) which in line with the networktyyp distributed model of policy-making processes are provided simultaneously rather than in distinct phases:(
In 2006 it was decided therefore to initiate a process of strategic dialogue, bringing the growing number of diverse actors together in an open and self-critical debate.
ARC systems research, building on Cassingena Harper and Georghiou (2005), PREST (2006) and Forsociety (2007.
The preliminary results from the various analyses from different perspectives were brought together during a forward-looking integration phase in spring 2006,
the main phase of the project‘Wien denkt Zukunft'started in November 2006 with a major kickoff event attended by over 500 participants.
Between 2006 and 2008 hewas leading a research programme on regional innovation patterns and policy in cooperation with the City of Vienna.
and Weber (2006) and in particular the work on self-evaluation tools for foresight in the context of the Forsociety ERA NET (Forsociety 2007).
and S. Jacobsson. 2006. Reflections on the co-evolution of innovation theory, policy and practice: The emergence of the Swedish Agency for Innovation systems.
Linking Research and Practice',Brighton, 11 13 september 2006. Cassingena Harper, J, . and L. Georghiou. 2005.
OECD. PREST. 2006. Evaluation of the United kingdom foresight programme. Final report. Manchester: University of Manchester. Rhomberg, W c. Steindl,
and M. Weber. 2006. Neue Entwicklungen im Bereich derwirkungsanalyse und-abschätzung FTI-politischer Maßnahmen. Report to the Austrian Council for Research and Technology development.
Weber, M. 2006. Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development
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Drawing on fieldwork studies of a Norwegian municipal vision project conducted in 2006 it is shown how a specific image of young people was constructed
Konrad and Voß 2006) in designing foresight processes and adaptive planning (Grin, Felix, and Bos 2004; Weber 2006) and as a critical tool in qualitative research (Lynch 2000;
Colombo 2003; Cañellas-Boltà and Strand 2006. Reflexivity is a broad concept, with roots in philosophical, literary and social as well as natural science discourses.
In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,
and to collect‘relevant ethnographic moments'(Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2006) during the 7-month project period.
From power point presentation by project leadership, March 2006. The visioning project was organised by a project group consisting of one of Lundal's municipal administration employees
The resulting visions were planned to be revised part of the municipal long-term plan regarding social development of the community (2006 2020.
Power point presentation, March 2006. people's suggestions, they were asked to focus on the‘well-being of citizens and on ideas about
979 Figure 3. The design of the municipal vision project according to the project group, February 2006. schools systematically and created three future pictures,
defining them as non-experts (Cañellas-Boltà and Strand 2006), or they should be able to influence the activities of an organisation.
Rask (2008), Van't Klooster and Van Asselt (2006). 3. About the relationship between foresight and decision making see Brown et al.
1999), Ringland (2002), Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000), Böhle (2003), Genus (2006), Georghiou (2001), Johnston (2001), Berkhout and Hertin (2002.
2006). ) 8. The term‘expectational reflexivity'covers those simultaneously enabling and constraining situations in which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.
March 2006 italics added. 13. Invitation sent by Lundal's head of schools to all secondary schools and colleges,
February 2006 italics added. 14. From Invitation. 15. Interview with vision project leader, April 2006. All interviews were conducted in confidentiality,
and the names of interviewees are withheld by mutual agreement. 16. Interview with vision project leader April 2006.17.
and H. Van Lente, eds. 2006. The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis and Strategic management 18, no. 3/4: 285 98.
and R. Strand. 2006. Reflexivity and modesty in the application of complexity theory. In Interfaces between science and society, ed. A. Guimarães Pereira, S. Guedesvaz and S. Tognetti, 100 17.
Prentice-hall. Genus, A. 2006. Rethinking constructive technology assessment as democratic, reflective discourse. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73, no. 1: 13 26.
and J. P. Voß. 2006. Sustainability foresight: reflexive governance in the transformation of utility systems. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 162 88.
and R. Kelly. 2006. FTA and the city: imagineering sustainable urban development. Paper presented at second international Seville seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 28-29 september 2006, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
Ringland, G. 2002. Scenarios in public policy. Chichester: Johnwiley. Sanz-Menéndez, L, . and C. Cabello. 2000.
and M. Van Asselt. 2006. Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38:15 30. Voß, J-P,
. and R. Kemp. 2006. Sustainability and reflexive governance. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 3 30.
Weber, K. M. 2006. Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making: a conceptuua and methodological approach.
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or (5) to foster new networks (Georghiou and Keenan 2006). Ultimately, many of these objectives seek to strengthen the efficacy of innovation activities,
and Technology policy Council of Finland (STPC) should develop by the end June 2006 a national strategy for establishing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Research and Innovation.
The panel reports were published on 13 june 2006 in the Auditorium of the Museum of Contempporar Art (Kiasma) in central Helsinki.
In 2006, the STPC6 referred to Finnsight in its comprehensive report which contained numerous proposals towards the development of the Finnish research and innovation system (STPC 2006).
Also, in the same month when the results of Finnsight were published, the STPC took steps towards the establishment of Strategic Centres for Science,
nevertheless to provide feedback on the foresight process and the panel reports in April 2006. In this survey
Along this axis, it is noteworthy that the Finnsight reports were published in June 2006 when the Government took decisions towards the implementation of a national strategy in which the establishment of Strategic Centres of Science,
. and M. Keenan. 2006. Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rational, process and impact. Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77.
STPC. 2006. Science, technology, innovation. Helsinki: Ministry of Education. http://www. minedu. fi/export/sites/default/OPM/Tiede/tutkimus-ja innovaationeuvosto/TTN/julkaisut/liitteet/Review 2006. pdf?
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The 2006 anchor papers formed the core of the book. In concluding the collection, Keenan et al. identified a number of dimensions in
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
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from 1996 to 2006) is compared with the changes occurring in‘‘all science''(50%over the same period),‘agricultural and biological sciences''(30),
The high growth rate which characterises the field (the number of scientific publication has grown from 134%between 1998 and 2006) 46.
Brown, K. Konrad, H. van Lente, The sociology of expectation in science and technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (3/4)( 2006) 285 298.7 B. De
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:
as Culture 15 (4)( 2006) 349 365.51 T. Swierstra, A. Rip, Nano-ethics as NEST-ethics:
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A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures
Human and Societal Dynamics, IOS Press, 2006, pp. 92 109.22 A. Sokolov, Russian Critical technologies 2015, European foresight monitoring Network Brief, 79.
, L. Georghiou, A. Subira, Creating an innovative Europe, Report of the Independent Expert Group on R&d and Innovation Appointed Following the Hampton Court Summit, January 2006.
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I. Miles, 2006, in: Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes, For Society Transnational Foresight ERA NET, 2006. T. Ko nno la et al./
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and much more content of the study can be located by use of search engines including the presentation made at the FTA conference in 2006 43.14 We refer to Cole et al. 44,
a comparison of two methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (6)( 2006) 679 704.34 H. Linstone, M. Turoff (Eds.
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The headline message from the 2006 World Economic Forum at Davos was that we are shifting from a world characterised increasingly by resource constraints to one which
at least, the Second International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (September 2006. The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society,
In the 2006 FTA Conference, the FTA COMMUNITY realised the need to address the imperative of improving the two-way linkage between knowledge and the building of a‘common world'.
the link between competitive advantage and corporate social responsibility, Harvard Business Review (2006. 30 O. Salzmann, A. Ionescu-Somers, U. Steger, The business case for corporate sustainability:
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Wildcards signals from a future near you, Journal of Future Studies 11 (2006) 1. 10 N. N. Taleb, The Black swan:
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Faculty of engineering, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Tel.:++61 02 9351 3934; fax:++61 02 9351 3974.
since the 2006 International Seville FTA Conference had seen significant development in FTA capacity across many countries and regions:‘‘
and a special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change 5. The second Conference in 2006 enlarged the geographical base of participants,
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
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2006) rightly point out. Scenarios cover a whole array of various types of scenarios. Mannermaa (1991) even distinguishes a scenario paradigm.
Bo rjeson et al. 2006. First round of Delphi questionnaire The process was kicked off with the first round of a Delphi questionnaire.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques.
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''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,
Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. 2006), Planificacio'n estrate'gica de ciudades: Nuevos instrumentos y procesos, Editorial Reverte',Barcelona.
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2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.
As Blind (2006) observes, this growing interest reflects a series of recent developments: First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
and monitoring their performance (i e. data gathering and reporting strategies) and practices to review existing regulations (Blind, 2006).
Blind (2006..The paper presents and develops three methodological approaches (indicator-based approaches, surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight,
2006). ) 11. The SWAMI project (Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence) aimed to identify
2006). ) 18. For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future, see Staton (2008);
France, Paris. Blind, K. 2006),‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
Delorenzi, D.,Shane, J. M. S. and Amendola, K. L. 2006),‘The compstat process: managing performance on the pathway to leadership'',The Police chief Magazine, Vol. 73, pp. 34-40.
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2006) 4), transformational narratives5 and Integral Foresight methodologies. The latter introduces Integral Philosophy into foresight, based on the argument that the answers required today cannot,
. and K. L. Larson. 2006. Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding
and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
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Miller 2007) and expectations (Borup et al. 2006) that provide us temporary stepping stones on the way ahead. We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor.
and H. Van Lente. 2006. The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos 3 4: 285 98.
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Staton (2006) drew out the poverty of foresight if Derrida's claim that foresight does not say much about the future is accepted.
as described by Staton (2006), creates the impression that the umbrella is for immediate protection from inclement situations rather than trying to see beyond them into‘what comes next'.
Staton, M. 2006. Monstrous foresight. In Second international Seville seminar on future oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
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research institutes and policy circles (Borup et al. 2006; Van Lente and Bakker 2010. Expectations are produced, circulated, adapted and are forceful in various ways (Berkhout 2006).
Foresight exercises, or‘formal'assessments of the future, thus, are surrounded by‘informaal assessments of the future (Salo 2001).
varying from governmental agencies, funding agencies to individual research institutes or firms (Luiten, van Lente, and Blok 2006).
Van der Duin 2006. A popular technique is technology roadmapping, which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
Borup et al. 2006; Van Lente and Bakker 2010. This approach studies how expectations in science
The orientation towards the future applies to the behaviour of individuals, groups, organisations and society as a whole (Konrad 2006.
and will vary in level, content and modality (Konrad 2006). The level of expectations may range from encompassing, abstract sketches of the future (macro) to detailed elements (micro.
Berkhout 2006. While the financial health of a bank can be verified in ways other than rumours,
a project or programme can be defended by referring to a promising future (Borup et al. 2006.
and thus be granted support (Konrad 2006). Maybe it failed this time, but the next time it might succeed (Hellsten 2002).
as introduced and used by the Gartner Advisory Group (Borup et al. 2006). They propose that a new development is accompanied by‘inflated expectations'that receive much attention and mobilise many investments,
Konrad 2006. Techniica development is not solitary work, but the work of networks of companies and research institutions.
more sophisticated and effective health technoloogies many types of work are articulated (Van Lente 2006). The promised future situation contains sequencing of genes, characterisation of proteins, databases, dynamic models and so on.
Berkhout (2006) emphasises the distinction between private and collective expectations. The first type relates to the cognitive schemes through
more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.
or promoting the‘robustness'of an expectation (Sung and Hopkins 2006). This provides other opportunities for foresight and assessments.
and that the approach is insufficiently robust for an ex ante policy (Berkhout 2006). Eames (2006) and his colleagues have studied how the guiding vision of the hydrogen economy has lead to resistance.
They show that when the general vision is filled in with concrete projects contestations will arise.
2003, cited in Eames et al. 2006). The fact that it was supported by a European programme was an additional reason for suspicion.
referring to the efforts other governments have planned (Berube 2006. 5. Conclusion Foresight exercises can be seen as formal articulations of possible futures,
Berkhout, F. 2006. Normative expectations in systems innovation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 299 311.
Berube, D. M. 2006. Nanohype: The truth behind the nanotechnology buzz. Newyork: Promotheus Books. Borup, M.,N. Brown, K. Konrad,
and H. Van Lente. 2006. The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 285 98.
and S. Marvin. 2006. Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy.
Konrad, K. 2006. The social dynamics of expectations: The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television.
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