Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2011:
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Peta bps per optical fibre. 2011 4. 20 4. 29 2. 39 2. 14 3. 61 Widespread use of a SCM (supply chain management system to handle data
of achieving a throughput of tens of Gbps. 2011 3 71 4. 00 2. 50 2.
exceeds 90%of all component parts. 2011 4. 16 4. 17 3. 97 2. 17 2. 83 Widespread use of a security technology that automatically monitors illicit
which are available over networks 2011 3. 84 3. 66 4. 13 1. 73 3. 00 A service that evaluates the security of the e-commerce system of individual companies
and reports the results is used by 80%of consumers who use e-commerce services. 2011 4. 13 3. 64 3. 14 2. 29 3. 57 Practical use of card
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5. 2. 2011 2012 nanoproducts proliferate The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes but framed by self-assessment mechanisms
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This was reflected in the futures 43 (2011) 229 231 2 This tension has been mirrored at the time of writing by an attempt by parts of the European commission to put into wider usage the collective term they are using for internal managerial purposes
Introduction/Futures 43 (2011) 229 231 230 In Spring 2011 the fourth FTA Conference will take place.
Available online 19 november 2010 Introduction/Futures 43 (2011) 229 231 231
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Tailoring Foresight to field specificities§Antoine Schoen a,,*Totti Ko nno la b, 1, Philine Warnke c, 2, Re'mi Barre'd, 3, Stefan Kuhlmann e, 4 a Universite
Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 233 All these results point to the fact that diverse innovation areas need diverse governance tools
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 234 with extensive formal and informal consultation of stakeholders including scientists and research organisations.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 235 objectives matrix (Table 2). In each cell of the matrix, the Foresights do not have the same actors involved, nor the same perspectives, nor the same objectives.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 237 and those ingredients traceable to their source. In 2004, the European commission has lifted a 5-year moratorium on genetically modified produce.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 238 5. 1. 3. GMP: towards a Tailored foresight In the field of GM plants research we find a strong growth rate
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 239 5. 2. 3. N&n: towards a Tailored foresight In the realm of nano-related research we see a strong growth rate and at the same time a strong divergence.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 240 (including in variable geometry schemes. It follows that the Foresight function,
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 242
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The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
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Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 244 can see a polarisation of approaches between, on the one hand,
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 245 issue is how actionable such lists are.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 246 relevant to end-users (e g. personal computing.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 250 35 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Sahto, Foresight
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 251
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Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making§T. Ko nno la A f. Scapolo b, 1, P. Desruelle c, 2, R. Mud, 3 a Impetu Solutions
While foresight is used commonly in connection with the public-Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi:
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 253 Consensual future perspectives refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 254 Table 1 Selected foresight projects addressing societal challenges. Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 255 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement UK DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 256 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement FISTERA:
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 257 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement National Technology roadmap in Korea Informative Learning about the technology
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 258 Sustainability: since the Brundlandt Commission 13, many alternative definitions of sustainability have been proposed
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 259 and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts. However, specific short-term actions are expected not necessarily after the projects.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 260 considered extremely challenging due to high uncertainties related to the issue.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 261 Information society. FISTERA highlighted priority application areas where R&d investments should be intensified in the future,
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 262 3. 5. Innovations foresight (diverse perspectives and instrumental outcomes) Innovations foresight can be characterised as instrumental processes with diverse
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 263 foresight is ever more important to position foresight as one of the key supporting tools for policy-making to anticipate how major societal challenges ahead can be addressed such as those tackled in this paper, e g. security, sustainability and information society challenges.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 264
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Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi:
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 266 beyond organising exchanges among (more or less closely associated) experts.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 267 As with other practices, FTA ACTIVITIES involve several phases,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 268 Many of the individual methods may be associated with more than one of the five steps,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 269 programmes and projects (discussed, for example, in the literatures on complex product systems,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 270 Whatever mixture of the three goals is being pursued,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 271 understanding themselves and their worlds, or whatever.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 272 management in a scenario workshop are discussed in the next section,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 273 forecasts, even background scenarios (e g.‘‘‘‘starter scenarios''to be elaborated) prepared by an expert team or in earlier studies.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 274 making. This is most likely to be accomplished by those who have participated in
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 275 One of the biggestkmchallenges that confront FTA,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 276 safeguards and privacy-enhancing mechanisms...thereby encouraging people to accept
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 277 23 I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, R. Popper, New Frontiers:
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 278
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FTA and equity: New approaches to governance Cristiano Cagnin a,,*Denis Loveridge b, Ozcan Saritas b adg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain
Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 280 both been disbanded under changing political regimes. Most recently, foresight studies have stormed onto the scene to become a global phenomenon.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 281 As a counter-argument, Olsen 11 suggests that the process of governance may not always produce a precise and stable policy outcome.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 282 To achieve this goal, a base of knowledge and abilities that are technically feasible
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 283 CSR proponents have used four arguments to make their case 29:
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 284 CSR strategies may work under certain conditions 24, but they are highly vulnerable to market failures.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 285 Corporate governance is then about strategic CSR, which integrates value chain social impacts and investments in competitive context;
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 286 beyond addressing global inequalities and cultural and religious divides.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 287 business and society if consistently invested in social initiatives
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 288 community's readiness to address global issues and to building governance at a global level.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 289 References 1 D. Large, Participation and representation, A Review of Sustainability Here and now, in part of The Great Debate:
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 290 35 M. E. Porter, M. R. Kramer, The competitive advantage of corporate philanthropy, Harvard Business Review (2002.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 291
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The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals Ozcan Saritas a,,*Jack E. Smith b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK b Federal Foresight & Innovation strategy, Defence
an opportunity to contribute to a value-adding Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 293 Potential trends Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects,
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 294 As one can see there are subtle differences from trends.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 295 Building on Petersen's work, Barber 9 developed an additional wild cards
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 296 Recent reports about accelerated arctic ice shelf melting and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 298 e g. do those with more years of experience tend to use greater differentiation in their scoring?
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 299 The diagram illustrates that:
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 300 Table 2 Examples of trends.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 301 years experienced groups. We believe that this strong contribution from the more experienced contributors supports the basic assumption behind the survey that such a gathering of experts would constitute a uniquely defined relevant cohort worthy of sampling
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 302 Fig. 7 shows the frequency distribution of drivers of change and the most widely cited ones.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment. There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 304 affiliations expect high likelihood of occurrence.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 305 include those identified in Table 4 that would have unknown implications because of they were to appear,
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 306 3. 2. 5. Discontinuities The orientations of discontinuities are represented with the following radar diagram
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 307 3. 2. 5. 1. Joint assessment of Foresight experience and discontinuities.
and deniers create discontinuity Global security issues rise, e g. nuclear crisis O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 308 2016
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 309 Good response with 171 weak signals;
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 310 4. Conclusions and implications on policy and strategy The following implications from the outputs of the Big Picture Survey
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 311 13 K. Steinmueller, Wild cards for Europe, Z punkt, 2003.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 312
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The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
Another pointed to the historical limitations of any attempt to Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 314 The first FTA Conference in 2004 gathered predominantly the EU-US community together to take stock of the developments
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 315 Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca UNIDO, Austria.
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 316
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Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims
Design/methodology/approach This introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special issue.
Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011 illustrated the existing variety of FTA APPROACHES to address structural
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
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www-schlichtung. s21. de (accessed 2 august 2011. Scapolo, F. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘New methodological developments in FTA'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses:
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applications and case studies) have developed out of need (see www. andyhinesight. com/category/foresight-2/(accessed August 2011) re practitioner usage);
2008) and Miller (2011. In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
''Computers and Chemistry, Vol. 25, pp. 341-8. Miller, M. 2011),‘Being without existing: the futures community at a turning point?
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Linstone and Turoff, 2011. All stages were conducted within a compelling timeframe of four months. Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,
it sets a preferred goal (Ho jer et al. 2011, p. 11. As opposite to traditional forecasting, backasting suits well in the study and solving of highly complex,
''Ho jer et al. 2011, pp. 11-12. Instead of continuities they build on possible discontinuities to reach the solution desired
value-laden issues, increase social learning and in themselves advance social change (Robinson et al. 2011, p. 757).
A°kerman 2011. Backcasting has been applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios (see, e g. Bo rjeson et al. 2006.
and two external evaluations one being the official statement given by the Committee for the Future in Parliament (2011),
and another one by an expert (Wilenius, 2011). The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report.
The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well, and proposes that the focus in developing foresight reports should be,
2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report.
l en&s 2658 (accessed 20 december 2011. 2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
References A°kerman, J. 2011),‘Transport systems meeting climate targets. A backcasting approach including international aviation'',doctoral thesis, Royal Institute of technology, Stockholm.
Committee for the Future (2011), Tulevaisuusvaliokunnan mietinto 1/2010 vp. Valtioneuvoston tulevaisuusselonteko ilmasto-ja energiapolitiikasta:
Ho jer, M.,Gullberg, A. and Petterson, R. 2011), Images of the Future City. Time and Space for Sustainable development, Springer, Dordrecht.
www. ipcc. ch/publications and data/publications ipcc fourth assessment report wg3 report mitigation of climate change. htm (accessed 20 december 2011. Jungk, R. 1987), Futures Workshops:
http://ffrc. utu. fi/julkaisut/ejulkaaisujaetutu 2010-8. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. Eds)( 1975), The Delphi method:
Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. 2011),‘Delphi: A brief look backward and forward'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78 No. 9, pp. 1712-9. PAGE 314 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mannermaa, M
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Robinson, J.,Burch, S.,Talwar, S.,O'Shea, M. and Walsh, M. 2011),‘Envisioning sustainability:
www. stat. fi/til/ehkh/2008/04/ehkh 2008 04 2009-03-24 kuv 017 en. html (accessed 20 december 2011. Wilenius, M. 2011),‘Towards a pioneering status?
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/j01-02-03-kohti-edellakavijyytta/PDF/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Further reading Committee for the Future (2011), Valtioneuvoston tulevaisuusselonteko ilmasto-ja energiapolitiikasta: suosituksia ja yhteenveto kokemuksista.
Valtioneuvoston kanslian raporttisarja 4/2011 (in Finnish), available at: www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/r04-05-06-tulevaisuusselonteko-suosituksia/PDF/fi. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
About the authors Sirkka Heinonen holds a Doctor's degree in Philosophy from Helsinki University. She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku.
Previously she was a Chief Research scientist at the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT. Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment,
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2009-2011) has shown that most public agencies in charge of urban and regional planning, as well as private consultants conducting professional work in that field,
Third, there is a tight relationship between futures studies and strategic planning (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2011. The need to think about the future
Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.
2009-2011. Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain.
European foresight Platform (2011),‘Foresight brief‘Knowledge sharing Platform'''available at: www. foresightplatform. eu (accessed 14 july 2011.
European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 333 Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. 2011),‘Recuperacio'n de los estudios del futuro
2009-2011),‘Oportunidad y viabilidad de la prospectiva en el planeamiento urbano y territorial'',Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid
http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide (accessed 16 september 2011. Fundacio'n OPTI (2007), Estudio de prospectiva sobre el comportamiento social ante el desarrollo sostenible, Fundacio'n OPTI, Madrid.
www. millennium-project. org (accessed 16 september 2011. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co
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In this respect, Saritas (2011) comments that‘‘a s the complexity of societies has increased, the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues.
2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable
and legal systems do not become obsolete, ineffective or unjust''(HIIL, 2011). This programme (also denominated as The Law of the Future project LOTF) ventured into the study of the future by posing one fundamental question to the legal community of scholars and practitioners:‘‘
2011). ) The objective of the think pieces was to fuel the discussion and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process.
if'questions''HIIL, 2011). To conclude, it is important to note that, as an ongoing and dynamic project, the objective of the LOTF is to further develop these scenarios,
integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011). As Helbing (2011) explains,
the ultimate goal of Futurict‘‘is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems,..
employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011); the‘‘Planetary Nervous system''will work as global sensor network,
i e. to create a greater awareness of the possible implications of human-decision making''(Helbing, 2011).
but also different financial architectures or voting systems''(Helbing, 2011). This platform will power interactive observatories, which will be in charge of detecting
rather than as a claim to know the future''(HIIL, 2011). Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.
2011). ) 10. For a comprehensive guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used, see Bo rjeson et al.
see HIIL, 2011. Law Scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future. 14.
2011). ) 15. For an overview of data mining technologies and their use for competitive advantages, see Porter and Cunningham (2005.
and Tuomi (2011. 19. For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
2011). ) For a discussion of how expert quantitative and qualitative information may be joined coherently, see Loveridge and Saritas (2011).
20. For two views sustaining the impossibility to anticipate the future, see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011.
Regarding the latter paper, Tuomi reconfirms the thesis of the unpredictability of the future, arguing that foresight has missed systematically important future developments due to its reliance on categorizations
Haegeman, K.,Scapolo, F.,Ricci, A.,Marinelli, E. and Skolov, A. 2011),‘Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference
Helbing, D. 2011), The Futurict knowledge accelerator to explore and manage our future, available at:
www. futurict. ethz. ch/data/Whatfuturictwilldo4media. pdf HIIL (2011),‘Law scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future'',available at:
D. S. 2011),‘Using the international futures (IFS) model for scenario analysis: combining quantitative and qualitative methods,
Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. 2011),‘Combining quantitative and qualitative in FTA: rediscovery or something new?''
350 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Muller, S.,Zouridis, S.,Frishman, M. and Kistemaker, L. Eds)( 2011), The Law of the Future and the Future of Law
Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
I. 2011),‘Foresight in an unpredictable world'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
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The fourth editiio (2011) of the International Seville Conference on Future-Orientedtechnologyanalysis (FTA) focused its attention on processes of transformative change in response to Grand Societal Challennges
shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee. 1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to
With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.
Feedback on the 2011 international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis. IPTS internal note. Inayatullah, S. 1998.
Ollila, J. 2011. The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
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Rossel 2011; Holopainen and Toivonen 2012. We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate.
Ogilvy (2011) has argued recently that scenario developers and decision-makers have to learn to maintain an agnostic attitude
Ogilvy, J. 2011. Facing the fold: From the eclipse of Utopia to the restoration of hope.
Rossel, P. 2011. Beyond the obvious: Examiningways of consolidating early detection schemes. Technological forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 3: 375 85.
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The co-joining of quantitative and qualitative information is exemplified by the T ohoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 march 2011 north east of Japan.
a matter of importance to satellite communication, following the 2011 earthquake. No doubt it Will be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 756 D. Loveridge
and qualitative information an example of elicitation The events involved in the 2011 earthquake north east of Japan illustrate the importance of the STEEPV set and within it,
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