Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 1990:
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After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s
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Other European countries like Sweden or The netherlands followed in the mid 1990s. Among the OECD countries, regulatory impact assessment gained a certain momentum after the publication of the OECD report on best practices in impact assessment 2. The growing interest in RIA in other countries, especially in Europe 3
but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
A new understanding of foresight gaining acceptance in the 1990s starting with Irvine and Martin 17 made clear that a targeted shaping of future developments is limited strictly
and definition Delphi studies achieved high popularity in Europe in the 1990s 10,11. The Delphi method was developed originally in the USA,
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In 1990 Manz 51 posed that integrated microfluidics could be harnessed to create complex systems that integrate all necessary analysis steps on one chip,
and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).
In the mid 1990s other scientific communities (synthetic chemists; biologists) were attracted to the field, foreseeing that this technology could aid them in their work
. 75,1985, pp. 332 337.38 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.536 D. K. R. Robinson
Actuators 1990, B1, 249 255.52 D. J. Harrison, K. Fluri, K. Seiler, Z. Fan, C. S. Effenhauser, A. Manz, Micromachining a Miniaturized Capillary
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and the repercussions of the‘massification'of the‘third level'education. 17 Just to illustrate this with the example of the UK in the mid-1990s:
from 44.5%at the beginning of the 1990s to 57.5%at the turn of the millennium (43, p. 57.
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Q. 35 (1990) 6045 6633.4 A l. Porter, A t. Roper, T. W. Mason, F. A. Rossini, J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology
Q. 35 (1990) 9 30.30 S g. Green, M. B. Gavin, L. Aiman-Smith, Assessing a multidimensional measure of radical technological innovation, IEEE Trans.
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since the late 1990s and reached leading nations in early 2000s. This attainment raised national interest and critical debate of the reliability of the data basis and methodologies used in comparisons.
2. Finland has improved her positionamong developed nations according to several internationalperformance comparisons since the latter part of 1990s,
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In the 1990s most of these programmes were driven by the economic mantra of technologically dependent competitiveness and its importance to national economies.
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Rev. 75 (1985) 332 337.27 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.28 R. Garud, P
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Following foresight exercises in many countries during the 1990s, there now seems to be a new wave of research
In the 1990s Henry Mintzberg, in a book and two papers (Mintzberg 1994a c), argued that strategic planning focuses too much on analyses
Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.
It is based on the knowledge-based view of the firm and on organisational learning (Prahalad and Hamel 1990;
for example, the general national research strategy developed in the mid-1990s (Miljø-og Energiministeriet 1996a c). Danish energy research experienced considerable turbulence following the change in governnmen in late 2001.
Since its establishment in the late 1990s an increasing amount of money has been channelled through this programme. With a budget of around DKK100 million(¤13.4 million) a year (rising to DKK130 million(¤17.4 million) in 2005) it has become the same size as the Energy research programme. 2 The PSO R&d programme supports
Porter, M. E. 1990. Competitive strategy. Techniques for analyzing industries and competitors. Newyork: The Free Press.
and G. Hamel. 1990. The core competence of the corporation. Harvard Business Review, no. 33 (May June:
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In line with these concepts, the 1990s were also characterised by a great reluctance of government policy to prioritise research themes and select technologies in a top down manner.
Vienna already launched an active RTI policy in the early 1990s; almost twenty years later the city is confronted with the necessity to revisit its RTI policy landscape.
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2004,195) there was virtually no mentioning of visioning as a collective activity within the planning profession before 1990.
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**Nano-surfaces & rare-earth materials 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
AIR FUEL CELL X-ray photoelectron spectra SURFACE ORGANOMETALLIC CHEMISTRY impedance spectroscopy (IS platinum alloys electrooxidation electric impedance measurement 1988 1989 1990 1991
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From this analysis we may conclude already that foresight has moved on from the type of objective setting that typified the large national foresight programmes of the 1990s.
An early example of this concept was the Finnish Governments knowledge cluster programme of the mid-1990s.
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''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990), employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
Inayatullah, S. 1990),‘Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies'',Futures, Vol. 22 No. 2, pp. 115-41.
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Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
as well as reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 80 per cent from 1990 levels.
Backcasting scenarios are usually relatively long-term (20-100 years)( Robinson, 1990, p. 820), which in itself helps thinking outside current trends
in formulating the path from the future to present external factors need to be taken account (Robinson, 1990, pp. 830-831).
Results and policy implications The final results of the foresight process were four scenarios that all fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 per cent from the 1990's levels
remarked on that occasion that it was a major breakthrough achievement to have committed Finland to reducing its emissions to a sustainable level by at least 80 per cent from the 1990 level by 2050.
Robinson, J. 1990),‘Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict'',Futures, Vol. 22 No. 8, pp. 820-42.
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Luhmann 1990; Beck, Giddens, and Lash 1994) have emphasised further the point that reflexivity in thought
Mokyr 1990, chap. 11; Bower and Christensen 1995) assumes that we know the dimensions on which we will measure their‘beastliness'at the point of their emergence.
Luhmann, N. 1990. Essays on self-reference. Newyork: Columbia University Press. Luria, A r, . and L. Vygotsky. 1992.
Mokyr, J. 1990. The lever of riches: Technological creativity and economic progress. Oxford: Oxford university Press.
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How often the nature of measurements is dissected according to the NUSAP2 system (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990),
and Ravetz 1990)) to establish its veracity. These are‘straightforward'matters but do they remain so in the face of the political and social worlds'demands for immediacy that underlie the mode of living of modern society?
. and J. R. Ravetz. 1990. Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A:
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The wellknnow story of Moore's Law is used often as a prime example (Mackenzie 1990.
however, points to the central role that the prediction has been playing in the strategic game between the manufacturers of memory chips (Mackenzie 1990.
Mackenzie (1990) describes in his study on guided nuclear missiles how the degree of uncertainty about the promised capabilities of the missile depends on the distance from the development itself.
Sturken et al. 2004) like the‘electronic superhighway'in the 1990s or the‘hydrogen economy'of the last decade.
Mackenzie, D. 1990. Inventing accuracy: A historical sociology of nuclear missile guidance. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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Mintzberg 1990; Wiltbank et al. 2006. In order to explore the relationships between environmental uncertainty, foresight, and strategic decision-making, we performed a multiple-case study of corporate organisations.
and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
Mintzberg 1990. Foresight practitioners and scholars generally respond to such criticism by arguing that the role of foresight
Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
ICT Mid-1990s Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 787 The unit of analysis was twofold.
Since the 1990s, the demand for chemicals has been characterised by low growth and considerable cyclicality Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 788 R. Vecchiato
Strategic foresight activities at BASF started in the mid-1990s, when the company realised that the chemical industry was going through major structural changes
A corporate unit (Philips Design) established in the 1990s delivers innovative design concepts and services for the company main businesses.
Since the late 1990s, foresight activities have played a key role in redefining the company mission, as it focused its value proposition on the‘Sense and Simplicity'concept.
Mintzberg, H. 1990. The design school: Reconsidering the basic premises of strategic management. Strategic management Journal 11, no. 3: 171 95.
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Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
and considers a number of other related attempts (Perlman and Takacs 1990; Katzenbach and Smith 1993;
Features of universal ethics or universal principles and those of respect (Zohar 1990; Cagnin 2000) can be linked with Losada's notions of high-performance teams and organisations:
. and G. J. Takacs. 1990. The ten stages of change. Nursing Management 21, no. 4: 33 38.
Zohar, D. 1990. O Ser Quântico: Uma Visão Revolucionária da Naureza Humana e da Consciência Baseada na Nova Física.
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Sci. 41 (6)( 1990) 391 407.3 T. K. Landauer D. Laham, M. Derr, From paragraph to graph, Proc.
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which has become stronger (broader and deeper) since the 1990s. Climate change and environmental consciousness have reinforced a concern with the global and holistic.
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There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 71 Griliches, Z. 1990),‘Patent statistics as economic indicators:
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) 1976 1990 1991 2007 2008 402 L. Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 We propose a normalisation method with two steps to pre-process the original data.
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Table 5 TLC stages of NBS. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 lb 1 1
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and likely scenario, Futures 22 (1990) 730 739.20 M. Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, New york, 2003.21 M. E. Porter, Competitive advantage, Free Press, New york, 1985.22 G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technol.
predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies, Futures 22 (1990) 115 141.68 E. Weiner, A. Brown, Future Think:
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In the 1990s, studies mapping the field and technology assessment studies included actors and knowledge mainly from science and industry 1, 19 22.
and his ideas became a disputed reference point in the debate around nanotechnology in the late 1980s and the 1990s.
Integrated vision-building and governance network-building in the US At the end of the 1990s, the US science policy community established an organizational structure around nanotechnologies
nanotechnology has been on the policy agenda of the federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) since the late 1990s.
The BMBF commissioned several forecasting studies on nanotechnology-related fields starting in the early 1990s.
At the onset of the German national nanotechnology initiative, officially started in the late 1990s by widely publicized funding programs for nanotechnology,
and this institutional fragmentation can also be observed with regard to the governance of science, technology and innovation in the field of nanotechnology. 4. Comparing the US and Germany 4. 1. Timing and intervention Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s,
Several industrial countries established their first programs in that field in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
But only in the end of the 1990s were disconnected the formerly fields of nanoscale science and engineering brought together under the broader umbrella definition of nanotechnology.
which documented mutual visits and mutual screening activities in the 1990s. The US Interagency Working group on Nanoscience, Engineering and Technology (IWGN) published a worldwide study on Nanostructure Science and Technology in 1999.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
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critical success factors for the 1990's, R&d Manag. 22 (3)( 1992) 221 239.11 W c. Kim, R. Mauborgne, Strategy, value innovation,
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Since the 1990s Nokia would have been on any list of European industrial success stories as it rose to global leadership in themobile telephony sector.
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a new perspective on learning and innovation, Administrative Science Quarterly 35 (1990) 128 152.27 S. A. Zahra, G. George, Absorptive capacity:
strategy in the 1990, Harvard Business Review 73 (1995) 11 128.29 V. Ambrosini, C. Bowman,
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\4. Critical success factors for government-led foresight.pdf
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\6. User-driven innovation.pdf
Luc Martens received an MSC in electrical engineering and a Phd from Ghent University in July 1986 and December 1990, respectively.
From September 1986 to December 1990, he was a research assistant at INTEC, Ghent Universiity Since January 1991,
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\7. Impact of Swiss technology policy on firm innovation performance.pdf
this percentage has remained practically constant since 1990. As a consequence, only a few fiscal initiatives to support research
+Wallsten (2000), USA Small Business Innovation research (SBIR) Programme (1990 1992) 81 Selection correction: Three-equation system (two different participation eqns.:
2002), Switzerland Programme of promoting use of Computer Integrated Manufacturing Technologies (CIMT)( CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Selection correction:
Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Donzé (2002),
Switzerland Programme of promoting use of CIMT (CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Matched-pair analysis (several alternative methods) Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996):+
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Lach (2002), Israel R&d grants from Office of Chief Scientist at Ministry of Industry and Trade (1990 1995) 325 Difference
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\12. National, sectoral and technological innovation systems.pdf
) Nevertheless, since the 1990s, because of the rising cost of manufacturing in Taiwan and the policies of free trade in pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical MNCS gradually sold their manufacturing facilities to local companies (DCB 2003:
and followed the Good Manufacturing Practice rules to upgrade their machinery facilities, in the 1990s,
) Only in the early 1990s, with the gradually developed environment for pharmaceutical research, did some universities,
But until the late 1990s, there was no institution which could transfer pharmaceutical biotechnology from the universities to pharmaceutical companies. 3. 1. 3 National institutions:
In 1950, the government launched the‘Statute for Encouraging Foreign Direct Investment'(abolished in 1990)
and before the late 1990s, there was no particular target for the funding of R&d policies. Only after 1998 did the government start to recognize Chinese herbal medicines as the backbone of the pharmaceutical sector.
before the late 1990s, the government did not have specific policies to encourage the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnology.
Only in the late 1990s did the government start to support the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnnolog through supporting the innovation of new herbaceous medicines. 3. 2 Evolution of the Taiwanese agricultural biotechnology innovation system 3. 2
Only in the 1990s did some local SMES start to transfer the modern biotechnoloog of genetic modification from academic institutions and developed GMOS, especially non-edible GMOS.
For example, Taikong which was a trade company selling ornameenta fish has worked with the National Taiwan University to develop GM ornamental fish since the 1990s (Taikong 2010.
) Indeed, until the 1990s, the modern biotechnology innovated by the universities was transferred only occasionally to particular agricultural companies, such as Taikong. 3. 2. 3 National institutions:
In the 1990s, when the Taiwanese government was preparing to participate in the World trade organization and to open its domestic market for foreign agricultural products,
and then gradually withdrew their investments in the 1990s. After that there were fewer and fewer large firms involved in pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Only in the 1990s did some universities occasionally transfer modern biotechnology to agricultural SMES. In brief, within the same nation different NSTISS may involve different groups of actors
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\3. Coping with a fast-changing world.pdf
which an individual's life is determined by external prescriptions or rules and norms (Thompson et al. 1990).
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
Thompson, M.,Ellis, R. and Wildavsky, A. 1990) Cultural Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Tiits, M. and Kalvet, T. 2011)‘ Foresight as an innovation policy tool in smaller catching-up economies:
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\4. Orienting international science cooperation to meet global ‘grand challenges’.pdf
In some ways, a lot has changed since 1990, e g. the internet, but in others, many of the problems faced in 2010 were discussed already widely, e g. environmental concerns.
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\5. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking.pdf
and along with the emergence of an emphasis on innovation policy in the 1990s, many new features,
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\9. Fraunhofer future markets.pdf
and poverty Target 1 Halve between 1990 and 2015, proportion of people whose income is less than US$1 a day Target 2 Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
proportion of people who suffer from hunger Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education Target 3 Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,
between 1990 and 2015, under-five mortality rate Goal 5 Improve maternal health Target 6 Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, maternal mortality ratio Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS,
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