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and 1980s were influenced strongly by the linear idea that the consensus achieved in Delphi could serve as a forecast and thus as a foundation for taking preparatory actions to exploit emerging technologies.
Instead any strategic decision-making has to take place well in advance of receiving 9 An example is the Handbook of Systems analysis from the 1980s with only quite cursory remarks on the subject (20, p. 240,21, p. 259f).
After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s
the United kingdom started with some cost-benefit analyses of regulations in the 1980s. Other European countries like Sweden or The netherlands followed in the mid 1990s.
e g. the first MP3 patents were applied for in the late 1980s whereas the broad commercialisation started ten years later 23.
Land use transportation scenario planning projects have been carried out since the late 1980s in the US 37. In particular metropolitan transportation has moved from a supply-side focus siting facilities to meet projected demands toward a more 1152 E. Störmer et al./
Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.
while a final section draws some summary conclusions and highlights lessons for future foresight practice. 2. STI Policy in Luxembourg Before the 1980s,
and advanced IT in the early 1980s). Policymakers thus sought more transparency in decision-making, with foresight, technology assessment,
Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;
The collapse of the Berlin Wall and subsequently the Soviet union was weakly discernible in the mid 1980s through assessments of military capacities and responses to theStar wars''initiatives;
based on Evans and Mackinder, 1980) illustrates that many of these forecasts turned out to be wrong in the UK.
I. H. 1980),Predictive accuracy of British transport studies'',paper presented at the PTRC Annual Conference, University of Warwick, Coventry.
During the 1980's, TA developed towards a policy instrument, where TA is used to support policy-making.
In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe. Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc.
and apply technology roadmapping in the mid-1980s. It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
Maturana andvarela 1980; Lewontin 1983; Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991; Nishida 2012) have emphasissed the environment subject distinction fails to account for the mutual co-determination
. and F. J. Varela. 1980. Autopoiesis and cognition: The realization of the living. London: Reidl.
which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
Porter, M. E. 1980. Competitive strategy. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985. Competitive advantage. Newyork: Free Press.
The analysis of value within a firm (Porter 1980, 1985a, 1985b,1991, 1997), through the integration of customers into the chain (Mcstravic 1999) and later the incorporation of suppliers/deliverers as well as customers (Bovet and Martha 2000
subjective and able to self-organise (Maturana and Varela 1980, 1997; Capra 1997; Dempster 1998,2000;
The dynamism of a swarm or a network may be thought of as autopoiesis (Maturana andvarela 1980),
Maturana andvarela (1980) agree when affirming that every organism has the power to self-generate by means of autopoiesis,
. and F. Varela. 1980. Autopoiesis and cognition: The realization of the living. Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.
Porter, M. E. 1980. Competitive strategy: Techniques for analysing industries and competitors. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985a.
as well as undesirable while the course of technology development remains more malleable (Collingridge 1980; van Merkerk and van Lente 2005.
Collingridge, D. 1980. The social control of technology. London: Pinter. Ezra, A a. 1975. Technology utilization: Incentives and solar energy.
A2 h i ð2þ 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
when we compare these contributions with texts published in the 1980s, as for instance the very often cited books of Nelson and Winter 16 and Basalla 17.
Change 18 (1980) 257 282.11 T. Modis, Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New york, 1992.12 T. Devezas, J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic
but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,
Early and radical visions that shaped the field in the late 1980s were published by individual thinkers 17,18.
In the 1980s a first funding program was established in UK that has fallen since into oblivion.
The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,
and his ideas became a disputed reference point in the debate around nanotechnology in the late 1980s and the 1990s.
started in the late 1980s and focused in the early stages on technology analysis, market analyses and technology assessment activities.
and this institutional fragmentation can also be observed with regard to the governance of science, technology and innovation in the field of nanotechnology. 4. Comparing the US and Germany 4. 1. Timing and intervention Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s,
Several industrial countries established their first programs in that field in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
As late as the 1980s, the Danish governmental expenditure on research and development (R&d), relative to the country's gross national product (GNP), was among the lowest of the OECD countries.
Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
factors in new product success, European Journal of Marketing 14 (1980) 277 292.2 J. Tidd, Managing Innovation Integrating Technological, Market and Organization Change
COS was the umbrella organisation of the so-called sector councils for R&d that were established by Dutch law during the 1980s to provide strategic knowledge questions for departmental policies in a number of policy domains (environment, agriculture, health,
Chatri Sripaipan started his career teaching electronics at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand From 1980, his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy.
Suttmeier 1980; Wan 2008; Wang 1993), selected sectors and actors (Jakobson 2007; Zhang et al. 2009) or assessment of the state of its STI capabilities (D'Costa and Parayil 2009;
Suttmeier 1980. The next phase, of structural reforms, began in the mid-1980s, when the China Communist party Central Committee (CCPCC) issued policy documents outlining three major systems reforms:
of the economic system in 1984, of the S&t system in 1985, and of the education system in 1985.
Saich, A j. 1989) China's Science policy in the 80s. Manchester: Manchester University Press. Schwaag Serger, S. and Breidne, M. 2007) China's 15-year plan for scientific and technological development a critical assessment, Asia Policy, 4: 135 64.
Suttmeier, R. P. 1980) Science, Technology and China's Drive for Modernization. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press..(
which was composed mainly of local enterpriises that were small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMES), only adopted biotechnology after the 1980s.
Nevertheless, as we will show in Section 3, Taiwan adopted traditional biotechnology before 1945 and adopted modern biotechnology as early as the 1980s.
In the 1980s, with advantageous technologies and marketing capabilities, MNCS shared more than 50%of the domestic market (Zheng 2001:
) Before the 1980s, the main business of the herbal factories was to use modern machinery to process the herbs to be customized into Chinese herbal medicines. 4 Herbs were decocted,
) Only after the 1980s, was modern biotechnology graduaall adopted by the companies producing Chinese herbal medicines.
The main role of universities until the end of the 1980s was to train qualified pharmacists.
Modern biotechnology was introduced to Taiwan's universities in the 1980s by a group of young scientists.
Nevertheless, from the 1980s until 2000, the networks between the researchers and between universities and pharmaceutical companies were established not fully.
Furthermore, before the 1980s, most of the crops, especially rice, were exported to foreign markets. Farmers who served the foreign markets only obtained rewards from the sales of their harvests.
However, the introduction of modern biotechnology in the 1980s extensively changed the knowledge and technology used for seed innovation.
) A group of Taiwanese scientists trained in US universities introduced modern molecular biotechnology to Taiwanese universities in the 1980s.
The purpose of these policies changed dramatically in the 1980s. Before the 1980s, the agricultural products were export-oriented.
The main purpose of the agricultural policies at the time was to direct the agricultural sector to maximize the production of agricultural products, especiaall the primary productions of rice and sugar cane,
Only after the 1980s, when the manufacturing industries were developed well and agricultural products were exported no longer,
since the 1980s, compared with the prosperoou ICT industries, the agricultural sector was recognized gradually as the sector with low productivity.
Before the 1980s, research into traditional biotechnology was funded in order to increase the productivity of the agricultural sector,
and after the 1980s, research in modern biotechnology was funded merely to increase the farmers'welfare (Chang 2004:
Before the 1980s, there was no policy regulating the innovation of seeds. With the developmmen of GMOS in the 1980s,Genetic Modified Safety Rules'were implemented in the labs. Yet, besides field trials,
none of the GM seeds were allowed to be traded in the domestic market. Moreover, until 2000, there was no regulation for non-edible GMOS.
Only after the 1980s did some Chinese herbal medicine companies occasionally cooperate with the universities to develop new herbaceous medicines.
and did not produce any opportunities for the development of traditional biotechnollogy Modern biotechnology was introduced only to the system after the 1980s
Since the 1980s the modern technique of genetic modification was applied to improve the genes of subtropical fruits (such as papayas) and non-edible organisms (such as ornamental fish.
Before the 1980s, while pharmaceutical manufacturing was the main activity of the system, the main policies were regulation and FDI,
After the 1980s, when the pharmaceutical companies graduaall adopted biotechnology to innovate new herbaceous medicines, R&d policies became more and more importannt Indeed, the Eight Key Industries,
Before the 1980s while agricultural products were exported, the agricultural R&d policies focused on the quantity of agricultural products.
However, after the 1980s, once the agricultural products only served domestic demands, the government promoted agricultural R&d and regulation policies,
In the mid-1980s following signals of potential climate change as a consequence of increasing CO2 emissions, the scientific community, under the aegis of ICSU, established the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme.
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