Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2020:
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in Section 4 alternative visions are devised at three levels, with the time horizon of 2020 2025.
These visions offer a description of future states in 2020 2025 rather than fully fledged or path scenarios
, The Future of Research actors in the European research area, Synthesis Paper, HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2006.28 A. Bonaccorsi, The Changing Role of Researchers in Europe, 2020, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future
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Change 74 (5)( 2007) 682 707.44 L. Giorgi, Transport and mobility in an enlarged Europe 2020
Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.45 I. Chatrie, J. Rachidie, AGORA 2020 Transport, housing, urbanism and risk, in:
the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007 2020, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1279 1302.50 P. A. Steenhof, B c. Mcinnis,
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‘All pupils and students in secondary schools and colleges should be invited to participate in a vision project organised by the municipality to create a desired picture of their community in 2020'.
The resulting visions were planned to be revised part of the municipal long-term plan regarding social development of the community (2006 2020.
They were asked to use their estimated age of about 30 years in 2020 as a starting point for their visionary ideas. 14
which would show desired descriptions of Lundal in 2020. These future pictures were to be written using expected trends in municipal developmmen coupled with the young people's ideas.
Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!
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Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 170 183.3 R. Mu, Z. Ren, S. Yuan, Y. Quiao, Technology foresight towards 2020 in China:
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2020) and develop policy recommendations. Results were discussed with both DG Information society and DG Transport and Energy of the European commission.
Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
Consensual TF2020 has set up 6 pictures of China development in 2020, and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey.
National Technology foresight in China and Technology foresight towards 2020 in China as well as National Technology roadmap in Korea were all strongly informative processes that were initiated to capture experts'views on future S&t challenges Hence,
2020). ) The findings of the project showed that a large degree of uncertainty existed on impact of ICTS on the environment,
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and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
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The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s. Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The construction machinery roadmap can be approached as systemic
Rakennuskonetoimialan visio ja tulevaisuustiekartta 2012 2020. A vision of the construction machinery sector and future roadmap 2012 2020.
VTT Asiakasraportti VTT-CR-00459-12. VTT, Tampere In Finnish. Paiho, S.,T. Ahlqvist, E. Lehtinen, J. Laarni, K. Sipilä, P. Ala-Siuru,
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The European commission released‘‘Innovation Union''as a flagship initiative in Europe 2020 (European commission, 2010. In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
Revealing how Europe and Other World Regions Navigate into the Future, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2010), Europe 2020:
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and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
and B an atmospheric pollution monitoring system, capable of the early detection of conditions potentially leading to natural or anthropogenic environmental emergencies (2015-2020.
University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
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and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,
which is‘‘time of technological realization before 2020''for Japan, ‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
Twenty-six Delphi topics in Japan which counts for 74.3 percent of the total Delphi topics,
were regarded as having realization before the year 2020. The remaining six and three Delphi topics are regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030 and after the year 2031, respectively.
In South korea's case, most of the Delphi topics were regarded by experts as having realization before the year 2020;
only one topic regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030. In China, all the topics were regarded as having realization before the year 2020.
Table V summarizes the realization time distribution of Delphi topics in Japan, South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
energy) is a hot technology application before the year 2020, where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management),
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) is prospected also by these three countries as second hot application technology before the year 2020,
The third hot application technology before the year 2020 is technology 32 (Transport), and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
) Topics Ratio (percent) Topics Ratio (percent) Japan 26 74.3 6 17.1 3 8. 6 South korea 75 98.7 1 1. 3
From the source technology side, technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is the hottest source technology for application to other technologies before 2020,
energy) is targeted the main application technology by other technologies before the year 2020. The source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental
the technology interactions of the Delphi topics before the year 2020 are much more divergent.
Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
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Stage Emerging Growth Maturity Decline Period (year)( CRT) 1897 1929 1930 1972 1973 2000 2001 2020 Period (year)( TFT-LCD
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and increasing the total fraction after the first 10 years (around 2020). The adoption of the new technologies in later years is also higher than under the basic policy,
but lose their effect after 2020 due to the time-restricted nature of the hedging action.
To reveal the underlying mechanism leading to a decline after 2020, it is necessary to identify those runs that improve around 2020 and then collapse.
A modified classification in combination with PRIM could be utilized for such an analysis. This study also has implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.
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At the moment, Schiphol is considering expanding the airport by adding a new runway that is to become operational in 2020.
Moreover, a participatory process has resulted in the agreement that no more than 510,000 operations can be scheduled at Schiphol in 2020.
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At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.
Foresight analysis for world agricultural markets (2020) and Europe. www. ag2020. org 2. Danish Technology foresight on Environmentaall Friendly Agriculture K. Borch,(in press) The Danish Technology foresight
four scenarios 2015 2020, Innov. Manag. Policy Pract. 6 (2004) 331 343.65 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios:
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entitled Nanotechnology research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020 3 combined retrospective and future-oriented analysis documenting developments in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2010
and presented a vision for progress in nanotechnology from 2010 to 2020 3. Besides redefining the R&d goals for nanoscale science and engineering integration,
the presented vision for 2020 was conducted by involving a wider range of experts and stakeholders to generate broader knowledge than in 1999.
and became a part of the vision for 2020. Both concepts rely on experiences derived from participatory activities.
The second foundational phase (2011 2020) is planned to be focused on the integration of nanoscale science
In the US the new vision for 2020 represents such a concept, while in Germany many different agendas were developed in parallel without a common strategy.
in 2020, Berlin/Boston, Retrospective and Outlook, Springer, 2010.4 European commission, Green Paper, in: E. Commission (Ed.),From Challenges to Opportunities:
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Europe 2020, Flagship Initiative Innovation Union, Brussels, 2010.4 P. Warnke, Implementing transformative innovation policy priorities, in:
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plank of the new core programme Horizon 2020 11. The tendency is also visible in the United states where the White house Office of Science
936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM
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Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
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and managing the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project. The first principle is interconnected understanding innovation systems. This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.
and managing the IMS 2020 project. The authors develop four principles that they believe should be taken into account
intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS) 2020 IMS2020 was an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European commission within the IMS Framework, conducted by an international consortium of 15 core partners and a large group
The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020 and beyond.
and the likelihood of having such behaviour in 2020. This was done in a dedicated workshop;
project partners had to assess all features within each snapshot scenario with respect to the likelihood and desirability of these becoming reality by 2020.
or likely to happen by 2020. The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,
and somewhat likely to happen by 2020 (likelihood>2). Based on the results of the vision building workshop a first draft of the IMS2020 Vision was developed by JRC-IPTS.
The refined research topics were then prioritised in terms of (i) a timeline between 2010 and 2020,(ii) inter-dependencies between research topics (those
and 2020 to enable the European commission to identify and select research priorities to be funded in collaboration with the IMS region in this timeline.
Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\2. Joint horizon scanning.pdf
Global Securiit Scan for Canadian Science Capabilities (2015 2020)- Report of Proceedings, Defence R&d Canada, Centre for Securrit Science.
Science.PublicPolicyVol37\5. Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-Pacific.pdf
Suggestions from a 2020 Technology foresight: Technological Approaches to Combating Emerging Infectious diseases (EIDS. Paper presented at the APEC Scenario Workshop on Converging technologies to combat EIDS,
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\11. Head in the clouds and feet on the ground.pdf
and lasts until 2020. It proposed guidelines which are expressed in 16 Chinese characters: indigenous innovation (zizhu chuangxin), leapfrogging in key areas (zhongdian kuayue),
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\2. Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles.pdf
The Europe 2020 Strategy2 is oriented explicitly towards tackling grand societal challennge and has formulated ambitious policy objectives for climate change, energy security, demographic ageing and resource efficiency.
At the same time the Europe 2020 Strategy notes that a partnership approach should extend to EU committees, to national parliaments and national, local and regional authorities,
to social partners and to stakeholders and civil society so that all main stakeholders can be involved in delivering on the vision of Europe 2020.
These shortcomings are recognised well in Horizon 2020 and certain new initiatives have been proposed to overcome them.
the notion of‘function'is provided useful its heuristic value is stressed. 2. COM (2010) 2020, Brussels, 3 march 2010.3. COM (2010) 546 final, Brussels, 6 october 2010.4.
2010)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social, Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',SEC (2010) 1161
2010)‘ EUROPE 2020: A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth',COM (2010) 2020,3 March 2010.
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\3. Coping with a fast-changing world.pdf
6. Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union,<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/innovation-union-communication en. pdf>accessed 15 december
2010)‘ Commission Staff Working Document A rationale for action, accompanying the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',COM (2010) 546, pp. 9 and 89,
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\5. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking.pdf
Commissioned by the Victorian government, the purpose of the Victoria Technology roadmap was to build a synthesizing picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, up until the year 2020.
targeted towards the year 2020, was the following: Victoria is sophisticated a market for green and intelligent buildings.
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\6. Embedding foresight in transnational research programming.pdf
business opportunities and needs for new co-operation structures Support identification of breakthrroug innovations on functions of cities in future (2020 50) Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 197 3
business opportunities, needs for new co-operation structures and breakthrough innovations with regard to the functions of cities in the future (2020 50.
a programme set up in connection with the Europe 2020 strategy (European commission 2010b) and European Innovation Partnerships (European commission 2010c).
Notes 1. See Europe 2020 (European commission 2010b) and the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union (European commission 2010c.
2010b)‘ EUROPE 2020: A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth',COM (2010) 2020 final.
Brussels: European commission..(2010c)‘ Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',COM (2010) 546 final. Commission..(2011)‘ National open access and preservation policies in Europe',Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Directorate B European research area, Unit B. 6 Ethics and gender.
Brussels: European commission..(2012)‘ Forlearn Online foresight Guide',<http://www. foresight-platform. eu/community/foresightguide/>accessed 15 march 2012.
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\8. Facing the future - Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning.pdf
as a means of preparing for the development of the Europe 2020 strategy and related policy initiatives such as the EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
A major war by 2020, for instance, was a core issue in the rare event-oriented analysis
and security Issue Borderline issue>50%Core issue 100%A major war by 2020 R NATO will become more open to outside partnerships M Terrorists
M Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillaanc are diffused widely on a global scale by 2020 M V Investments in defence will carry on declining in world R M=
and loss of ecosystems services 6 DS13 Attacks on infrastructure facilities 6 DS15 A major war by 2020 6 DS81 Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillaanc widely diffused Global
Commission Staff Working Document A Rationale for Action, Accompanying the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union COM (2010) pages 9 and 89,
Science.PublicPolicyVol39\9. Fraunhofer future markets.pdf
cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:
proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Target 11 have achieved by 2020 a significant improvement in lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers Goal 8
Hightech-Strategie 2020 fu r Deutschland'.'Bonn/Berlin: Bundesministerium fu r Bildung und Forschung,<http://www. hightech-strategie. de/de/81. php>accessed 20 july 2011.
2010) World's Top Global Mega Trends to 2020 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures.<
'Horizon 2020: The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, COM (2011) 808 final. Brussels: European commission. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2009)‘ 2009 State of the Future;
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