Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2007:
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received in revised form 14 march 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning.
Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 1071229 3 J. Gavigan, Panorama de la Prospective en Europa.
and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007. Dr. E. Anders Eriksson received his Phd In operations Research from KTH in Stockholm in 1986.
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received in revised form 1 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS
Provisionally, the calls for proposals of this program will be prepared in 2007. Research activities are due to start in 2008.
Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.
Res. 181 (3)( 2007) 1488 1505.11 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in strategic policy intelligence: current trends, the state of play and perspectives, in:
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received in revised form 19 october 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.
Maerz)( 2007) 6 10. Prof. Dr. Knut Blind is an economist by training and holds the chair on Innovation Economics at the Berlin University of Technology since 2006.
ART13.pdf
received in revised form 5 july 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.
At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.
At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.
Vision Assessment of Molecular Machines, J. Scientometrics 70 (3)( 2007. 42 U. Meyer, C. Schubert, Die Konstitution technologischer Pfade.
system in combination with optical tweezers for analyzing rapid and reversible cytological alterations in single cells upon environmental changes Tools and Resources, Lab Chip (7)( 2007) 71 76.61 L
Policy (36)( 2007) 871 879.537 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 68 D
ART14.pdf
received in revised form 15 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts,
ART15.pdf
received in revised form 19 december 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Universities have traditionally been key players in producing
Community Strategic Guidelines, 2007 2013 44. One of the specific guidelines is to improve the knowledge and innovation for growth.
'What is striking in this respect is the sheer lack of alternative visions in the 2007 Green Paper on The European research area 3. A major benefit for policy-makers (at the EU,
new perspectives, Green Paper, COM (2007) 161,4 April 2007.4 OECD, Four Futures scenarios for Higher education, OECD CERI, presented at the meeting of OECD Education Ministers, Athens
Community Strategic Guidelines, 2007 2013, COM (2005) 0299, available at: http://www. europa. eu. int/comm/regional policy/sources/docoffic/2007/osc/index en. htm. 581 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
) 558 582 45 M. Sharp, Competitiveness and cohesion are the two compatible? Res. Policy 27 (6)( 1998) 569 588.46 K. Aiginger, Copying the US or developing a New European Model policy strategies of successful European countries in the nineties, paper presented at the UN
ART16.pdf
being also the Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge center since 2007. She holds a Phd from the Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Business administration.
ART17.pdf
Tech mining to accelerate radical innovation, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, 2007.19 Y. Yasunaga, M. Watanabe, M. Korenaga, Outline of the strategic technology roadmap of METI (Ministry of Trade and Industry
of Japan) and trial approaches for technology convergence with the methodology of technology roadmapping, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, Portland, Oregon:
U s a. 104 (39)( 2007) 15224 15229.24 A. Vazquez, R. Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, Large-scale topological and dynamical properties of the Internet, Phys.
A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap
ART18.pdf
B 34 (2007) 578 597.5 D. Dominguez, B. Truffer, W. Gujer, Tackling uncertainty in infrastructure sectors through strategic planning.
I. Miles, M. Butter, G. Sainz, Global Foresight outlook 2007, Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World, EFMN, Manchester, 2007.7 E. A. Eriksson, K
)( 2007) 338 348.37 K. Bartholomew, Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality, Transportation 34 (2007) 397 412.38 C. Zegras, J. Sussman, C. Conklin, Scenario planning for strategic regional transportation planning, J. Urban Plann.
Dev. Asce 130 (1)( 2004) 2 13.39 Y. Shiftan, S. Kaplan, S. Hakkert, Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system, Transport.
Change 74 (5)( 2007) 682 707.44 L. Giorgi, Transport and mobility in an enlarged Europe 2020
the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007 2020, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1279 1302.50 P. A. Steenhof, B c. Mcinnis,
in transdisziplinären Projekten, GAIA 1 (2007) 41 45.56 R. Barré, S&t Foresight as a Collective Learning process In view of Strategic decision making:
Kosten, Zustand und Investitionsbedarf, GWA (3)( 2007) 171 176. Eckhard Störmer is a project leader at the Social science Research Department Cirus (innovation research in utility sectors) at The swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag.
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Risks, Potential and Adaptation (CES, time frame 2007 2010. The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.
I. Miles, M. Butter, G. Sainz de la Fuenta, Global Foresight outlook GFO 2007. Mapping Foresight in Europe and the Rest of the World.
SME vulnerability analysis, Booklet, http://www. pk-rh. com/(Read 5. 4. 2007), VTT, 2002.35 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala
, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida
, USA, International Association for the Management of Technology, 2007, pp. 1306 1324.36 T. Luoma, J. Paasi, H. Nordlund.
towards a new safety paradigm, Journal of Risk Research 10 (7)( 2007) 959 975 October 2007.
2007 http://www. rand. org/pubs/working papers/WR464/.(/Read May 28th 2009. 45 Futuríbles, THE Strategic Environment for Companies:
2000 and D. Sc. 2007. She was first working as an environmental policy researcher at the University of Tampere.
In 2007 she entered VTT's Technology foresight and technology assessment team. Dr. Annele Eerola is Senior Research scientist and Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge centre‘Organisations, Networks and Innovation systems'at VTT.
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2005 and 2007, and a wide interest and emerged discussion of barometer proves that a social interest
and 2007 3 7. The plan is to publish a barometer once in every two to three years.
According to this index figure Finland rates as second after Sweden in Technology barometer 2007. In the same way other combined composite indicators determine Finland's proportional rating compared to the reference group countries in different areas of technology barometer (the content of Technology barometer 2007 is presented in Appendix B
). Besides the indicator-based comparative analysis the technology barometer includes a forward-looking survey of future expectations of relevant target groups.
Fig. 3 below is a synthesizing presentation of Finland's position according to the 2007 barometer
altogether Fig. 3. Positioning Finland in technology barometer 2007: Figure sets out Finland's above-average or below-average rating in comparison to the reference group (the y axis),
and results of indicator study obtained in 2005 and 2007. Standard statistical practices such as the Mann Whitney U test, were applied to analyze the results.
The 2007 survey had, among others, the following results. According to the results, the Finnish politicians are consistently more optimistic than professional engineers or company executives about the country's techno-economic development.
Accordingly technology barometer 2007 accentuated the following three crosscutting themes: the changing role of knowledge-intensive work, innovations and business,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Appendix B. Technology barometer 2007 Technology instrument for measuring citizens'attitudes and the nation's orientation towards a knowledge-based
, 2005.6 O. Lehtoranta, P. Pesonen, T. Ahlqvist, E. Mononen, T. Loikkanen, Tekbaro 2007 Teknologiabarometri kansalaisten asenteista ja kansakunnan suuntautumisesta tietoon
Tekniikan Akateemisten Liitto TEK, Painotalo Miktor, Helsinki, 2007.7 O. Lehtoranta, P. Pesonen, T. Ahlqvist, E. Mononen, T. Loikkanen, Technology barometer 2007
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Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 In September 2007,
Foresight process Fully fledged foresight Bibliometrics Strategic partnerships Research alliances 1. Introduction In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process
As an input to the first workshop in November 2007, a first set of scientific papers describing the developments in the fields were written
Services Science In a first workshop with 110 participants in November 2007, these 14 thematic fields were discussed with respect to emerging topics
, 2000, pp. 78 92.8 Horizon scan Report, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda, COS, The hague, 2007, www. horizonscan. nl. 9 K. Cuhls
. 3, 2007, pp. 53 75,1. 27 K. Ducatel A. Tübke, J. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paterna-Castello, Strategic policy Intelligence:
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an overview of techniques, Foresight 9 (1)( 2007) 5 25.9 R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins
Change 17 (2007) 73 85.40 J. A. Dewar, Assumption-based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 2002,
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and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
but by the end of 2007 they were solidifying into policy and regulation. Thus, there was an occasion to launch a technology assessment exercise,
At the time of the workshop (December 2007) the situation in and around nanotechnology involved mostly the discussion of Environment, Health and Safety aspects (EHS/HES) and other nanotoxicity related discussions,
By the end of 2007 a large number of soft law proposals were on the table
This was one vision of the future proposed by a number of codes of conduct tabled in the December 2007 EU meeting.
this is a stylised quote announced by a large pharmaceutical company in a meeting in November 2007 on Nanomedicine 38..
This example is linked to a presentation given by manufacturing firm in the London meeting November 2007 on Nanomedicine.
Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances (EC 1907/2006) which entered into force on 1 june 2007.
Here they show that the patterns that were becoming stabilized by 2007 (identified through exploring endogenous futures) continue to shape development
Medical Nanotechnologies II, Royal College of Surgeons, London, UK, Nov 28 29 2007 (www. nano. org. uk). 39 A. Delemarle, D. K. R
Policy 36 (2007) 871 879.41 A. Nordmann, If and then: a critique of speculative nanoethics, Nanoethics 1 (2007) 31 46.
Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his Undergraduate and Masters degree in Physics and Space science and Technology at the University of Leicester (UK), Universität Siegen (Germany) and International Space University in Strasbourg (France.
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Karlsen and Karlsen 2007. In this perspective the premises for foresight might be that: The focus is less on priority-setting as a result of a foresight process and more on knowledge creation and knowledge sharing by the various actors during the process;
The latest strategy plan for the Technical research Council was Strategy plan 2003 2007, publisshe in August 2002 (Statens Teknisk-Videnskabelige Forskningsråd 2002.
The third phase in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was more important to the end product than was suggested by the term communication format.
Contrary to the earlier 5-year plans, the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was targeted primarily at politicians, with the aim of inspiring them to spend more on science and technology.
and on the different sub-areas of research, the plan for 2003 2007 emphasised the difference that science
the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.
Itwas not expected that the 2003 2007 planwould have a mediating and coordinating role in the research community or internally within the research council.
In practice, however, there are indications that the Strategy plan 2003 2007 has, at least to some extent, had the effect of coordinating and giving direction to the research community.
and H. Karlsen. 2007. Expert groups as production units for shared knowledge in energy foresight. Foresight (Emerald) 9, no. 1: 37 49.
Strategiplan 2003 2007. Teknisk-videnskabelig forskning: En forudsae tning for vae kst og velfaerd. Copenhagen:
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(2006 2007) conducted in one of Europe's smallest and wealthiest countries, Luxembourg. The country's small size brings into sharp viewmany of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities.
000 000 120 000 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Public research centres FNR UL Figure 1. Public
2000 2007(¤)Source: MCHER). ) Box 1. Parallel strategic initiatives. The OECD Review of Innovation policy was conducted in 2006 and commissioned by the MCHER.
The Review report (see OECD 2007) suggested a number of needed reforms in the system of public sector research governance
With an annual budget of 18 million in 2007 the FNR serves as Luxembourg's national funding agency in supporting the development of research competences in topics of national interest Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 936 F. Glod et al. through multi
While some of the first generation research programmes (seven programmes were launched in the period 2000 2003) were still ongoing by 2007,
as well as by the OECD (2007), which recommended a clearer distinction between policy formulation (the preserve of the MCHER
OECD. OECD. 2007. Reviews of innovation policy: Luxembourg. Paris: OECD. Thorsteinsdottir, H. 2000. Public sector research in small countries:
ART28.pdf
The core process was conducted between autumn 2006 and autumn 2007. At its end stood indeed a number of concrete measures to be taken,
For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.
given the fact that the process ended only in 2007. However other medium-and longer-term issues can be discussed on the grounds of the process design
ARC systems research, building on Cassingena Harper and Georghiou (2005), PREST (2006) and Forsociety (2007.
The essence of these four scenarios is captured in their titles (Weber et al. 2007: Innovative niches:
Notes 1. This section draws largely on Havas, Schartinger, andweber (2007. 2. Obviously, there are also certain types of foresight exercises that have a less pro-active intention by concentrating on the identification of future challenges
and Weber (2006) and in particular the work on self-evaluation tools for foresight in the context of the Forsociety ERA NET (Forsociety 2007).
Executive version, City of Vienna, November 2007. City of Vienna. 2007b. Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und Innovation.
Long version, City of Vienna, November 2007. Dosi, G. 1988. The nature of the innovative process.
Forsociety. 2007. Self-evaluation tool for foresight project managers. http://www. eranet-forsociety. net (accessed 19 november 2007.
Freeman, C. 1991. Networks of innovators, a synthesis of research issues. Research policy 20, no. 5: 499 514.
and M. Weber. 2007. Experiences and practices of technology foresight in the European region. In Proceedings of the Foresight Summit, Budapest, 27 29 september 2007.
Kuhlmann, S. 2001. Management of innovation systems: the role of distributed intelligence. Antwerpen: Maklu Uitgevers N. V. OECD. 2002.
and K. Kubeczko. 2007. Herausforderungen und Szenarien für das Urbane Innovationssystem Wien. Research report ARC sys/ZIT-0039.
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Burt 2007. They have studied foresight in the context of organisational identittie and the ways individuals fulfil identities
Building on these arguments Jenssen (2007) advocates a more cautious approach to the importance of foresight as a strateggi tool for policy
Burt, G. 2007. Towards a research agenda for environment, learning and foresight. Paper presented at 3rd Strathclyde international conference on organisational foresight, 16 18 august 2007, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
Cañellas-Boltà, S, . and R. Strand. 2006. Reflexivity and modesty in the application of complexity theory.
Jenssen, S. 2007. The demand for dialogue: studying the influence of organisers in public foresight. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 3, no. 4: 403 19.
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Hekkert et al. 2007; Salo, Könnölä, and Hjelt 2004.**Corresponding author. Email: ahti. salo@tkk. fi ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
Andersen et al. 2007. For examplle the Ministry of Trade and Industry has facilitated a so-called Foresight Forum (Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo 2007;
the Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) has catalysed extensive consultation processes with researchers and industrialists in its strategy developmmen (Salo and Salmenkaita 2002;
Furthermore, in 2007 the Ministry of Trade and Industry started a process towards the establisshin a National Innovation strategy,
Brummer and Salo 2007. Along this attribute, Finnsight was closer to the consensual approach. To some extent, this was
Könnölä, Brummer and Salo 2007) while others found that the full length panel reports were more interesting than the synthesis report which,
and B. A. Mölleryd. 2007. Foresight in Nordic innovation systems. Oslo: Nordic Innovation Centre. http://www. nordicinnovation. net/img/nordic foresight forum final report. pdf (accessed 20 september 2009.
and R. E. H. M. Smits. 2007. Functions of innovation systems: a new approach for analysing technological change.
and A. Salo. 2007. Diversity in foresight: insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
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Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 24 43.9 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
ART39.pdf
It builds on a framework developed by Barre'(2007) in The french Futuris project 24. We suggest to extend this concept to the European level
Merging optics and nanotechnology A European roadmap for photonics and nanotechnologies 2005 2007. Exercise aimed to provide recommendations for EU R&d efforts as input for FP7 and Strategic research Agendas in two fields (Nanomaterials & Photonics.
)( 1997) 83 118.12 F. W. Geels, J. Schot, Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways, Research policy 36 (3)( 2007) 399 417.13 F. W
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:
reflections from a hydrogen Foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (3)( 2007) 259 265.39 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to Foresight processes new participative Foresight activities in Germany, Journal
institutions versus policies, Science and Public policy 34 (5)( 2007) 303 316. A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:
Knowledge dynamics, Institutions, and Policy in Europe, PRIME Network of Excellence, 2008.44 A. Schoen, P. van den Besselaar, L. Henriquez, P. Lare'do, D. Pardo, Search Regimes:
Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science
patterns of moral argumentation about new and emerging science and technology, Nanoethics 1 (1)( 2007) 3 20.
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Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 170 183.3 R. Mu, Z. Ren, S. Yuan, Y. Quiao, Technology foresight towards 2020 in China:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 112 130.19 P. Crehan, J. Cassingena Harper, Foresight in smaller countries, in:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 216 236.20 A. Havas, M. Keenan, Foresight in CEE countries, in:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
36 (2007) 949 963.39 European commission, Communication: A Lead Market Initiative for Europe COM (2007) 860,21. 12.2007.40 R. Wilkinson, L. Georghiou, J. Cave, Public Procurement for Research and Innovation Developing Procurement
Practices Favourable to R&d and Innovation, European commission, September 2005, EUR 21793 EN. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 251
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2007 2013. T. Ko nno la et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 259 and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
2007 2036''.''The trend-analysis is supported by a wide external consultation of experts in order to make the information included in the report both comprehensive and independent.
reflections from a hydrogen foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (2007) 259 265.4 L. Georghiou, The UK technology foresight programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 359
, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.10 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
http://www. vtt. fi/inf/pdf/publications/2007/P653. pdf (2009-11-10). 18 Nordic H2 Energy Foresight for the Nordic Council
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Saritas (2007) provides a rathermore detailed account of five stages in FTA expanding the first and third of the sensemaking steps
A Fantasy of Love and Discord, Secker and Warburg, London, 1944.31 C. Warden, An application of some knowledge management concepts in foresight, Technology foresight for Organizers, 2007, Module 1:
''Nanotechnologies and the royal society and royal academy of engineering's inquiry, Public Understanding of Science 16 (3)( 2007) 345 364.40 S. J. Wood, R. Jones
from the Science to the Social the social, ethical and economic aspects of the debate, Swindon, Economic and Social research Council, 2007 (available at http://www. esrc. ac. uk/ESRCINFOCENTRE/Images
ART43.pdf
Dignity, equity and peace together with globalisation, world trade, Africa and climate change were the highlights in the 2007 Annual Meeting.
sustainability, Corporate Governance 7 (2)( 2007) 162 177.32 L. E. Preston, D. P. O'Bannon, The corporate social-financial performance relationship:
ART44.pdf
2007 2036, third edition, Swindon, 2007. Available at: http://www. mod. uk/NR/rdonlyres/94a1f45ea883049db-B319-DF68C28D561D/0/strat trends 17mar07. pdf (last visited on:
16 E. Hiltunen, Weak signals, Presentation given at the Finland futures research centre, 2007. Available at: http://www. slideshare. net/whatidiscover/weaksiggnal (last visited on:
ART45.pdf
Future Choices, 2007, http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Ourwork/Activeprojects/Obesity/Obesity. asp. R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 316
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In a similar way and by referring to von Schomberg (2005), Armin Grunwald (2007, p. 246) argues: While risk is a quantifiable parameter where there is both significant scientific knowledge about the probabilities of the occurrence of certain effects and reliable knowledge about the nature and extent of possible harm,
mandatory step (see for example Mishan and Quah 2007). CBA is about comparing the gains and losses of undertaking a new project or a policy.
''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9
Mishan, E. J. and Quah, E. 2007), Cost Benefit Analysis, 5th ed.,Routledge, London and New york, NY.
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The reduction of at least 80 per cent is at the lower end of the range (80-95 per cent) estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC, 2007) for industrialised countries in accordance with the two-degree target.
they call for creative and radical solutions (Hickman and Banister, 2007, p. 378. As today's conditions and thinking patterns often narrow possible solutions
Hickman, R. and Banister, D. 2007),‘Looking over the horizon: transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030'',Transport Policy, Vol. 14, pp. 377-87.
IPCC (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII, Climate change 2007: Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
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) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in
which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).
and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.
2007). ) This project explored development trends in the metropolitan peripheries of Madrid, paying special attention to environmentally sensitive areas in the Guadarrama mountain range.
European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
2007),‘Sostenibilidad de las periferias metropolitanas de la Comunidad de Madrid'',Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid, research project.
Fundacio'n OPTI (2007), Estudio de prospectiva sobre el comportamiento social ante el desarrollo sostenible, Fundacio'n OPTI, Madrid.
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Taleb 2007. In contrast to this biblical ontological model, below we adopt a model of constant creation that relies on a different ontology.
Miller 2007) and expectations (Borup et al. 2006) that provide us temporary stepping stones on the way ahead. We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor.
so that we are better able to live in an unpredictable world (Miller 2007). In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.
Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.
Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan. Newyork: Random House. Thom, R. 1972. Stabilité structurelle et morphogénèse:
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what Taleb (2007) has called picturesquely a Black swan event as Richter scale 9 earthquakes were known events, though there had been only four more powerful ones in human history.
Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Newyork: Random House.
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‘functions'of foresight for policy-making, see Table 1. Others cluster the intended benefits of foresight into three different objectives (Könnölä, Brummeer and Salo 2007;
Brummer, and Salo 2007. Apart from methods and objectives, foresight exercises also differ in the settings in which they are used.
an increasingly important task for foresight is to critically reflect on the available, circulating expectations (Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo 2007).
and A. Salo. 2007. Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
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