Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: Year:
ART1.pdf
It was suggested that maybe technology foresight could learn something from the past 20 30 years in socioeconomic study of science and technology,
ART10.pdf
Over the last ten to fifteen years forward-looking approaches under the headline of‘foresight'have acquired a prominent role as policy support tools.
Over the past few years, a number of general trends in foresight practices can be observed that reflect what could be regarded the mainstream of foresight.
but it is made based on experiences by the authors over the past ten years in a number of European and national foresight and policy strategy processes.
but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.
see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning
especially when designed as a rolling or continuous activity over many years. However, this ability to take continuously on board new insights still needs to be built explicitly into the process, both within individual AF cycles and along the implementation of several such cycles.
what they term deep uncertainty represented by very large scenario sets, sometimes over periods of hundreds of years 50.
One hundred Years, RAND, Santa monica, 2003.51 S. Myers, Determinants of corporate borrowing, J. Financ. Econ. 5 (1977) 147 176.52 B. Schauer, R&d portfolio selection considering risk
Over the past years, he has been contributing to and leading several foresight exercises at European, national, regional and sectoral level,
ART12.pdf
Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.
reflects interrellate developments emerging over the past few years 4. First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition,
For over twenty years, the so-called New approach has been the most prominent and successful approach to link standardisation and regulatory policy.
the time between the applications of patents and the market introduction of products based on these patents requires in general several years
whereas the broad commercialisation started ten years later 23. The need for regulatory adjustment is highest in those fields with a rather low level of activity at the starting point,
A systematic and strategic approach to develop standards for the service sector was initiated in Germany in the year 2000 with a large project Service Standards for Global Markets funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research 34.
However, surveying the activities in the last years, we can only list some exercises, like surveys and trend workshops,
Table 2 presents the assessment of the 21 telecommunication-related technologies expected to diffuse mostly within the next ten years.
NO-REST ITU Survey Fraunhofer ISI 2005)( 1=low importance to 5=high importance) Year Importance R&d Regulation Deregulation Standardisation Widespread use
since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years. A classical feature of the Delphi methodology is the promotion of a convergence process leading to a consensus by surveying the experts at least twice
In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,
The Sixth Technology Forecast Survey Future technology in Japan toward The Year 2025, No. 52, NISTEP Report, Tokyo,(1993.
, Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1994.48 Science and Technology foresight Center (NISTEP), The Seventh Technoloy Forecast Future technology in Japan toward the Year 2030, No. 72
Since more than ten years he is conducting studies both in the area of technology foresight, but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
ART13.pdf
In addition over the 15 years of research and development into lab-on-a-chip devices, larger industry has been reluctant to invest in stimulating
The DC-3 aircraft in the 1930s was the template for over 20 years for innovation in aircraft design around piston powered planes with metal skin and low wings.
(transition from phase 2 to phase 3). This development is the largest stumbling block over the past years (as described in the history above)
This barrier will be explored later in the paper as the main gap in the innovation chain for the last 15 years,
and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.
ART14.pdf
This has increased in importance in the past few years, not only in terms of the management of health-and environment-related risks,
lasting for about two years, and received a lot of publicity, with the Prime minister giving the keynote speech at its conference.
She has 10-year experience in policy development and analysis in the field of research and innovation.
ART15.pdf
or have undergone a series of major changes in the last 700 800 years, there appears to be a strong consensus on the need for a new round of fundamental reforms from all corners:
Second, new types of currently‘unthinkable'research players might also Fig. 2. The distribution of researchers by R&d performing sectors (FTE, most recent years.
ART17.pdf
Finally, we eliminate all links to pages associated with dates and years as these pages are rarely directly relevant to the topic under consideration.
This new standard for rich Internet applications was incorporated in a recent beta version of Internet explorer 8. 5. Policy impacts These developments in ARIA are less than a year old at the time this paper was written the W3c posted a working draft
, John Wiley & Sons, New york, 1991.5 R. J. Lempert, S. Popper, S w. Bankes, Shaping the next one hundred years:
ART18.pdf
For almost one hundred years in industrialized countries, infrastructure 1151 E. Störmer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 organizations have been optimizing to guarantee the provision of homogeneous and affordable services.
and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.
and uncertain factors for further analysis. During the first stakeholder workshop the participants project different possible states of each of the factors in the year 2030+of each of the suggested influencing factors.
They construct the context scenarios for the year 2030+discursively by describing coherent and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64.
The sanitation system has limited flexibility to adapt to changing context conditions as its key technical components have a very long life time (e g. sewer system last 80 years,
wastewater treatment plants last 25 years 17). Communities own and operate most of the sanitation systems.
In the first workshop, the stakeholders elaborated four alternative scenarios describing context conditions in the year 2030+based on the set of influencing factors
One year later the political decision making process approved this plan that first foresees an intensified collaboration of joint human resource management leading to joint ownership of facilities
In this process the result was a radically different solution compared to an earlier recommendation gained in a conventional planning process less than two years earlier:
ART19.pdf
The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years.
In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.
The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years, depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise.
In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened. Approaches like inherent safety 26 in process design as well as resilience engineering 27 in process operating address the complex nature of industrial process.
The time frame of the study was the year 2015. The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight
in order to evaluate their business potential after 5 10 years in a medium-size company. One opportunity was selected for more thorough concept development including iterative steps of idea generation and enrichment,
The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.
Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase
Raija Koivisto has over twenty years experience in safety, security, risk assessment and foresight related research at VTT.
ART2.pdf
Just forty years ago, computers were not much of a factor in futures research. The Delphi method was accomplished with pencil and paper in 1963,
forty years from now nearly all futures methods will be conducted in software, through networks, with diverse and changing sets of people, continually cross-referencing data,
http://www. acunu. org/millennium/FRM-v2. html. 2 Robert J. Lempert, Popper Steven, Steven C. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years:
and has 35 years experience in futures research with governments, UN organizations, corporations, universities, and nonprofit organizations.
ART20.pdf
and 2007 3 7. The plan is to publish a barometer once in every two to three years.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 272, were 2nd year students sitting for their matriculation examination.
and publish technology barometer at appropriate intervals of two or three years. The precise timing of barometer procedure depends
ART21.pdf
and technology and was broadened to look into the future of the next 10 to 15 years and even further.
In a second wave nearly 1 year later, they were interviewed once more to consolidate their opinions
and interviewed in order to find the most promising topics in research and technology for the next 10 to 15 years or even further in the future.
Topics that will already be in the implementation phase during the next years, or are transferred already to innovations in 10 years'time were excluded from the lists of topics to be considered.
For first selections a set of criteria was developed together with BMBF. Fig. 1. Combination of different methods. 1188 K. Cuhls et al./
when do you expect the highest research intensity (in 1 to 5 years, in 6 to 10 years, in 11 to 15 years or in 16 to 20 years.
On the basis of the survey, topics that will no longer be on the research agenda in 10 years'time,
and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly
or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?
but was promoted by the coming year 2000 and the demand for knowledge about the future.
and from foresight studies 22 27 and took into account knowledge from 15 years of foresight in Germany and internationally 4, 5, 6, 17,21, 28 31.
ART22.pdf
There are also data available on the types of businesses that use scenarios most often large firms in capital-intensive industries with long (greater than 10 years) planning horizons.
where the practice and literature has been flourishing in recent years, but there will also never be a standard approach.
Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years: New methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy analysis, 2003, RAND MR-1626-RPC. 11 C. Selin, Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38 (1
Teresa has worked in environmental policy issues for over 20 years in various countries and for European union Institutions.
ART23.pdf
which has undergone such a marked erosion in recent years with the shift towards a postmodern world 1209 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221-A dissatisfaction
and the quality of life a position supported politically throughout the ensuing 50 years. Formal rejection of the notion of infinite plasticity came in the late 1960s and early 1970s with the growth of technology assessment (TA) and the creation of the Office of Technology assessment (OTA) in the USA,
Box 1) have arisen consistently in recent years and have introduced secrecy and obfuscation by policy makers, providing another incentive for widening the scope and transparency of consultation and participation in Foresight.
Establish a baseline from what has been attempted to make Foresight programmes more inclusive in recent years The policy (or political) requirements:
ART24.pdf
whilst reducing (but not removing) the emphasis on the where the paths will lead to. 1. 2. The why and how of co-evolutionary scenarios In recent years,
and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
years Aspects of translation through Innovation chain: Innovation journeys shift from gestation period to start-up phase. This section also illustrates techno start-up strategies..
ART26.pdf
Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
but the area has attracted increased interest in the last 10 or 20 years. However a significant difference between today's knowledge-based economies and the industrial economies of 30 or 50 years ago is that technological development has become crucial for economic development
and for meeting the challenges faced by society, such as those concerning health, energy supply and the environment.
Mode 2 research has gained considerable influence in recent years. We see foresight as a specific type of strategy activity.
five or maybe eight years ahead and involves only a very limited number of stakeholders.
but with tighter cooperation with the strategic research council's activitiies Other reforms are expected in coming years as a result of the Government's Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy (The Prime minister's Office 2006).
3. 3. Strategy processes in the Danish technical research council One of the activities of the Danish technical research council over the last 15 20 years has been to develop 5-year strategy plans.
The council's annual contribution to the national budget negotiations, another strategic aspect of its activities, was coordinated with the 5-year plans.
To this was added in most years a limited number of special programme appropriations in the national budget,
From the beginning of the process it was clear for many of those involved that the Strategy plan would be simpler than the previous 5-year plan (1998 2002),
Contrary to the earlier 5-year plans, the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was targeted primarily at politicians, with the aim of inspiring them to spend more on science and technology.
With a budget of around DKK100 million(¤13.4 million) a year (rising to DKK130 million(¤17.4 million) in 2005) it has become the same size as the Energy research programme. 2 The PSO R&d programme supports
During the first year of the turbulent period the Advisory Council recommended the drawing-up of a strategy plan,
The Technical research Council plan mentions that its strategy is about prioritising areas of science with special importance for society during the next 10 20 years.
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
ART27.pdf
and is set to increase budgets further over the next few years. Thus, the challenge for Luxembourg lies not in distributing limited funds among its existing science community.
Research activities will mainly cover the topic of molecular diagnostics with a 5-year budget of¤140 million.
A first call for project proposals was launched in early 2008, some two years after the initial deadline,
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the number of proposals in domains newly identified by the Foresight exercise was lower in comparison to the domains where there have been research activities for several years,
ART28.pdf
others are planned to be implemented in the years to Come in spite of this apparent success, a more critical and systematic assessment of the process shows that the apparent short-term success of the process seems to come at the cost of limited medium-to long-term impact, associated with a low degree of novelty and the avoidance of controversy.
10.1080/09537320903262314 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 954 K. M. Weber et al. municipal RTI policy actions until the year 2015.
almost twenty years later the city is confronted with the necessity to revisit its RTI policy landscape.
and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.
Exactly one year after the kickoff event the RTI-strategy of the City of Vienna was presented to an equally large audience of several hundred participants, backed by the mayor, city councillors and key stakeholders.
'and are likely to be implemented in the first 2 3 years after the end of the strategy process (see Figure 2). For the year 2008 the initial three projects have been endowed with approximately¤14 million:(
it will be one of the great challenges of the following years whether at least some of the participatory elements and coordination processes among municipal departments can be established on a permanent basis. Monitoring the implementation of the strategy is planned to be an element of this,
Overall, some elements of the strategy have been defined in such a way that the momentum will be kept for at least the next two or three years.
Giving an assessment of longer-term impacts is difficult after just a year since the completion of the process.
He has been working for many years as scientist and policy advisor on matters of RTI policy, at regional, national as well as at European level.
ART29.pdf
or a political entity with predefined power or influennc in the project but young people between 14 and 19 years of age.
Relevance of case study What picture do we have of young people between 14 and 19 years of age?
except for one group of inhabitants, young people between 14 and 19 years of age. According to the survey this social group was satisfied least with communal offers for social and cultural engagement.
They were asked to use their estimated age of about 30 years in 2020 as a starting point for their visionary ideas. 14
'18 In the case of the Lundal vision project, long-term social planningwas intended to be influenced by young people between 14 and 19 years of age.
and visionary as used in planning literature over the last ten years. Environment and Planning B, Planning and Design 26, no. 4: 573 91.
ART3.pdf
Instead it derives from analytical work that has been ongoing for 2 years as illustrative material for a book 1. But,
o several terms appear for the first time in the most recent year's publications we could use these to stimulate discussion with our subject experts,
Nano-surfaces & rare-earth materials*Activity--%during the last 3 years: 261 articles 44%last 3 years 72 priority patents 14%last 3 years 133 family patents 32%last 3 years*Conference/Journal Ratio:
10%vs. 29%for SOFC*New Terms include: chemisorption, free energy, isotope effects, glass-ceramics, surface segregation & diffusion*Patenting:
We decide to focus on the last 5 years. He wants 3 Powerpoint slides like those we used last month in a similar benchmarking exercise.!
I undertake the dfinalt searches in SCI and EI Compendex and download hundreds of SOFC records for the most recent 5 years.!
A comparative 5-year trend script is run. Results are pasted from MS Excel into MS Powerpoint bgt Benchmarkingq slide templates.!
ART30.pdf
with the aim of fostering research that will offer possibilities for the commercial deployment of results within 5 10 years.
ART38.pdf
the success of foresight in recent years illustrates the strength of what they describe as the‘‘covenant between futures methodology and the needs of long-term strategic management and policy''.
ART39.pdf
%while e g. genomics has been growing for the last 10 years at 8, %and the recent rate of growth of nanoscience has been near to 14%.
It has produced a 20-year vision and a short, -medium-and long-term Strategic research Agenda for Europe's plant sector setting out a consensus on the research needed to fulfil the vision.
In 2004, the European commission has lifted a 5-year moratorium on genetically modified produce. Since then, six countries Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary and Luxembourg have chosen to ban Monsanto MON 810 modified maize contradicting EU Commission position.
This feature is clear when the evolution of volume of scientific output(+200%over 10 years,
ART4.pdf
For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities
the process operates continuously as it has at SRI International and SRIC-BI for the past 25 years.
Moore's law predicted that chip 20 years ago not quite what we are looking for.
Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.
Learning what constitutes a good Scan abstract can take 6 months to a year of attending Scan meetings.
Learning to identify unique clusters of abstracts can take a year or more. Experience on the part of Scan meeting participants also makes for a smooth meeting,
Through the years scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
ART40.pdf
which sometime ago called‘‘wiring up the innovation system''4. In recent years there has been growth in for regional innovation
where coordinated action over a period of years is needed to put the system in place.''''30;
in recent years there has been a growing recognition that systemic failures are just as likely to impede successful innovation.
future for foresight in research and innovation policy Rationales for foresight activity have evolved in recent years to feature a range of research
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.
ART41.pdf
Informative Identification of cross-dimensional analysis of the future context of defence in the next 30 years.
It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years. Autonomous Expert group work.
NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.
since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
China is planning to make the 12th five years plan for science and technology development by using the knowledge generated from roadmap activity.
4. Conclusions In the past years, increasing attention has been paid to the relevance of foresight for policy-making by coming up with different characterisation and typology of different foresight projects (for instance, 7, 12,26, 27.
ART42.pdf
which they have been familiar for many years, with little acquisition of new approaches and little awareness of the costs, benefits and broader implications of alternative methods.
Matters have improved over recent years with more journals, more conferences and symposia providing opportunities for mutual learning
Perhaps the least important but quite possibly a factor whose importance will grow in coming years is the rise of public concerns and associated social movements around many S&t issues.
Several influential approaches to KM and organisational learning have emerged in recent years and we turn briefly to these. 9 5. Methods
Miles et al. 23 discuss numerous ways in which new IT is liable to be employed in FTA in coming years.
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
FTA may be expected to be transformed in the coming years. Existing methods will be rendered‘‘democratised more transparent and user-friendly while new tools that support collaborative working will be introduced.‘‘
ART43.pdf
All these procedures highlighted the breadth of the cascade of situations as they have evolved over the last 40 years.
, L. Martel, The next 200 years, in: Associated Business Programs, 1976.6 H. Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1962.7 H. Kahn, A. Weiner, The Year 2000:
A Framework for Speculation on The next Thirty-three Years, Macmillan, 1967.8 Lindblom, Politics Markets: The World's Political-Economic system, Basic books, 1977.9 Y. K. Sheng,
What is good governance? United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (2008.
ART44.pdf
drivers of change and prospective discontinuities that might be expected within 5 10 or 15 years. The rationale for this concern tended to be expressed in these terms:‘‘
at least insofar as they usually endure as influential shapers for at least 4 5 years until succeeded by others.
just a few years ago, alternative medicine remained an outcast from modern medicine. Now it has links with big business
policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. What is interesting about trends is that normally most players,
and forces that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of one's investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&d,
rapid progress of ICT and biotech End of Moore's Law 100 years life expectancy Environment:
1. Years of Foresight experience; 2. Country of residence; 3. Affiliation-type of organization represented. Then, the in the second part, the respondents were asked to identify a list of trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, weak signals and discontinuities.
years of experience, country of residence and affiliation;(3) 15 STEEP Categories for each domain of interest:
3. 1. 3. Further analysis Analysis of each of the Domains of Interest according to%distribution by years of experience, country of residence, affiliation;
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 298 e g. do those with more years of experience tend to use greater differentiation in their scoring?
Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics
The majority of respondents engaged in Foresight activity 5 10 years as expected a quite experienced group of professionals (Fig. 2). The survey respondents were mainly from Academia and Governmental bodies (Fig. 3). 3. 2. 2
The respondents with more than 15 years of experience constituted the largest single group, comprising more than a quarter of the total of all respondents clear evidence of the substantial experience present at the FTA Conference.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 301 years experienced groups. We believe that this strong contribution from the more experienced contributors supports the basic assumption behind the survey that such a gathering of experts would constitute a uniquely defined relevant cohort worthy of sampling
Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years. Likelihood and time horizon assessment.
A balanced distribution is observed among the respondents with 1 3, 5 10 and over 15 years experience.
except the respondents with 10 15 years experience, who considered that about one third of drivers have low probability of occurrence.
All respondents from less than 1 year experience to more than 15 years considered that the majority of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.3.2.3.2.
As the years of experience increased, the time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards tended to remain between 2016 and 2025.
whereas the respondents with maximum 3 years of experience had a shorter time horizon (2008 2015).
years of experience and country of origin) demonstrates particular significance with respect to the differentiation and sophistication of responses.()
Over 33%of the discontinuities were defined by the respondents with over 15 years experience. Respondents with 5 10 years experience also contributed significantly (over 27%.
%Impact assessment. The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.
Different from the other groups, respondents with 5 15 years experience considered that more than 50%of the discontinuities will occur with the realisation time between 2016 and 2025.
Inexperienced respondents(<1 year) considered that most of the discontinuities will be observed in the short run (before 2015
The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),
and extend it to other similar groups, in the next year or two, for comparison purposes.
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