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ART1.pdf
Introduction New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis The 2004 EU US seminarb Fabiana Scapolo European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
(DG JRC-IPTS), E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 20 february 2005 The contribution included in this special issue builds on material presented to the first EU US Scientific Seminar
Forecasting and Assessment Methodst that was held in Seville on 13 14 may 2004, organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of European commission's Directorate General Joint research Centre.
and so on. 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2005.02.002 B The views expressed in this article are those of the author only
Scapolo@cec. eu. int Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 The seminar was organised to encourage cross-fertilization along six key issues of relevance for FTA research:
A wide range of F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1060 techniques and tools were used in complex combinations
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1061 new ways of framing studies, applying the concepts underlying marketing tools based on human behaviour to foresight design,
It was suggested that maybe technology foresight could learn something from the past 20 30 years in socioeconomic study of science and technology,
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1062 process on how the system operates, the players involved,
F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1063
ART10.pdf
Adaptive foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies E. Anders Eriksson A k. Matthias Weber b a FOI Defence Analysis, SE-16490 Stockholm, Sweden b ARC systems
research, A-1220 Vienna, Austria Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 14 march 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning.
Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.
The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider
and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Foresight; Technology foresight;
Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.
0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.006 1. Introduction When is a foresight process effective?
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 there is a need to move a step beyond collective processes
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information
Over the last ten to fifteen years forward-looking approaches under the headline of‘foresight'have acquired a prominent role as policy support tools.
Over the past few years, a number of general trends in foresight practices can be observed that reflect what could be regarded the mainstream of foresight.
465 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 distinct from‘technology forecasting'and the like. 3 This broadening
The Delphi exercises in the 1970s and 1980s were influenced strongly by the linear idea that the consensus achieved in Delphi could serve as a forecast and thus as a foundation for taking preparatory actions to exploit emerging technologies.
A similarly linear perspective but from a different angle holds for the critical technologies"studies conducted in the US, in France and The netherlands.
and in Hungary 14.466 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 influenced by its results.
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Finally it should be pointed out that this criticism against
the FOREN guide 17 and the UNIDO Technology foresight Manual 18.468 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 2
Instead any strategic decision-making has to take place well in advance of receiving 9 An example is the Handbook of Systems analysis from the 1980s with only quite cursory remarks on the subject (20, p. 240,21, p. 259f).
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 information on any particular fire and consequently it will have to build on more generic knowledge on different sorts of fires, their probabilities and the like.
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 adaptable enough to allow the second-period decision to go for any of the considered visionary structures at reasonable lead-time
but it is made based on experiences by the authors over the past ten years in a number of European and national foresight and policy strategy processes.
and conducted between 1996 and 1999 30 32.471 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 planned proved difficult to pursue to the letter.
Another experience that led the way towards Adaptive foresight was the use of scenario methodologies in the first Swedish National foresight exercise. 15 Based on these experiences
a project funded by the DG JRC-IPTS and conducted by the ESTO network in 2002/2003 34.17 For the Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight,
see Andersen et al. 35.18 FISTERA Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area was funded by the European commission between 2002
and 2005 36.19 This approach was developed in the context of an EU-funded project SNM-T. See for instance 37,25,
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 It should be clear from the two last bullets above that Adaptive foresight does not come with a onesiizefits-all implementation.
and that the original client gives his full consent. 473 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 3. 2. 2. Phase 1:
After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 While there are many ways to use such knowledge,
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 identifying a hierarchy of driving variables such that some are seen as more fundamental/independent and others as more derived.
(2008) 462 482 3. 2. 7. Phase 6: identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.
In other words, so far we have been mainly discussing the early phases of the 477 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 policy process.
but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.
see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 AF offers a learning framework rather than just an impressionistic one.
especially when designed as a rolling or continuous activity over many years. However, this ability to take continuously on board new insights still needs to be built explicitly into the process, both within individual AF cycles and along the implementation of several such cycles.
what they term deep uncertainty represented by very large scenario sets, sometimes over periods of hundreds of years 50.
Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 1071229 3 J. Gavigan, Panorama de la Prospective en Europa.
Ind. 341 (2001) 107 118.4 A. Tübke, K. Ducatel, J. P. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello, Strategic policy intelligence:
Participatory Technology assessment, European Perspectives, CSD, London, 2002.480 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482
Soc. 37 (1986) 463 478.12 H. Cameron, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, I. Miles, O. Saritas, Evaluation of the United kingdom foresight programme, Final Report, DTI, London, 2006.13 K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Evaluating a participative foresight process:
Eval. 13 (3)( 2004) 143 153.14 PREST, Evaluation of the Hungarian technology foresight programme (TEP), Report of an International Panel, University of Manchester, Manchester, 2004.15 R. Slaughter, A new framework
Pol. 1 (5)( 1999) 441 451.16 J. Voros, Reframing environmental scanning: an integral approach, foresight, J. Futures Stud.
Pol. 3 (6)( 2001) 533 551.17 J. Gavigan, F. Scapolo, M. Keenan, I. Miles, F. Farhi, F. Lecoq, M. Capriati, T. di Bartolome (Eds.),
Towards Environmental Innovation systems, Springer, Berlin, 2005, pp. 33554 27 B. Wittrock, S. Lindström, De stora programmens tid:
Proceedings of the SCORE Workshop, Copenhagen, 20 21 april 2006, TNO, Delft, 2006.30 H. Van Zuylen, K. M. Weber, Opportunities and limitations of European innovation policy
Change 69 (2002) 929 951.31 K. H. Dreborg, E. A. Eriksson, Best practice guide for assessment methods, Report D21 of the DG VII
. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 36 R. Compano, C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman, M. Rader, R
University of Twente/IPTS, Enschede, 1999 Sevilla. 38 R. Hoogma, K. M. Weber, B. Elzen, Integrated long-term strategies to induce regime shifts to sustainability:
One hundred Years, RAND, Santa monica, 2003.51 S. Myers, Determinants of corporate borrowing, J. Financ. Econ. 5 (1977) 147 176.52 B. Schauer, R&d portfolio selection considering risk
and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007. Dr. E. Anders Eriksson received his Phd In operations Research from KTH in Stockholm in 1986.
He works for the Swedish Defence research agency and has been engaged in numerous national Nordic and European future-oriented projects in defence, security, energy and transportation, typically with innovation and major investment decisions as important aspects.
Over the past years, he has been contributing to and leading several foresight exercises at European, national, regional and sectoral level,
and in the emergence and performance of R&d collaboration networks. 482 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482
ART11.pdf
, E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 1 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS
which are promoted by the European commission towards the establishment of the European Researcharea. Specifically, we report experiences froma recent consultation process that was organized withinwoodwisdom-Net (ERA NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new
opportunities in wood material science and engineering. This consultation process involved eighteen funding organizations fromeight European countries
and participatory workshops in promoting foresight activities within ERA NETS and European coordination tools. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.
+358 20 722 7007.0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.005 1. Introduction Increasingly, foresight activities exhibit elements of international collaboration
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 programs to the institutionalization of a new legal entity for allocating a common pot of resources through competitive calls for proposals.
networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 different countries in order to promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the European forest cluster.
Provisionally, the calls for proposals of this program will be prepared in 2007. Research activities are due to start in 2008.
The activities in Woodwisdom-Net are carried out in five work packages (WP. Within the WP for strategic activities, the tasks for the shaping of research agendas are concerned with the identification of research areas that are relevant for European cooperation.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 (and arguably in many other international consultation processes, too) was the multiplicity of interfaces
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Woodwisdom-Net which also provided feedback on it.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 leaders, and especially those that were evaluated favorably were discussed in a series of four workshops.
The questionnaire was open from Mid-june 2005 until Mid-october 2005. In total, well over 200 Researchers from the participating countries submitted research issues. 3. 2. 2. 2. Assessment of research issues from the research perspective.
The questionnaire was open from December 2005 until Mid-january 2006. For each issue, Researchers were asked first to assess the issue with regard to Novelty (i e.,
The questionnaire was open in January 2006. Within each of the sub-areas 5 15 7 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/registration. htm. 8 See http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/task1. htm. 9 See http
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Industrial leaders evaluated issues, and a total of some 50 Industrial leaders participated the assessment phase.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 maker would not choose a dominated portfolio,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 program. In each country, thenational Coordinators identified one representative from wood-material-based industry and one member of the research community and invited these to the workshops.
Based on the results from all preceding phases, a workshop for funding organizations was organized at the end of March 2006 to examine these results and, more specifically,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 research sub-area, participants were encouraged to comment on the issues within it (approx. 1 h). Third, for each of the research sub-areas,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 participants will be invited to workshops and in what phases of the process.
foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy
5 (2)( 2003) 46 53.3 T. Könnölä, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European coordination:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.5 L. Georghiou, D. Roessner, Evaluating technology programs: tools and methods, Res.
Policy 29 (4 5)( 2000) 657 678.6 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies, Technol.
Manag. 14 (2)( 2002) 183 200.7 A. Salo, J. P. Salmenkaita, Embedded foresight in RTD programs, Int. J. Technol.
Policy Manag. 2 (2)( 2002) 167 193.8 Woodwisdom-Net, Woodwisdom-Net website, visited 31.1.2007, http://www. woodwisdom. net/.
Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.
Res. 181 (3)( 2007) 1488 1505.11 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in strategic policy intelligence: current trends, the state of play and perspectives, in:
governance, Technikfolgenabschätzung Theorie und Praxis 12 (2)( 2003) 11 20.13 S. Kuhlmann, J. Edler, Scenarios of technology and innovation policies in Europe:
Change 70 (2003) 619 637.14 J. S. Metcalfe, Technology systems and technology policy in an evolutionary framework, Camb.
J. Econ. 19 (1)( 1995) 25 46.15 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, Int. J. Foresight Innov.
Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.16 A. Salo, J. Liesiö, A case study in participatory priority-setting for a Scandinavian research program, Int. J. Info.
Mak. 5 (1)( 2006) 65 88.17 A. Salo, T. Könnölä, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 70 88.18 J.,Liesiö, P.,Mild, A.,Salo, Robust Portfolio Modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies, Eur.
2005) is Researcher and doctoral student at the Systems analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology, with research interests in foresight, decision support systems and strategic decision making.
Totti Könnölä (M. Sc. 2001, D. Tech. 2006) is Researcher at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville.
Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495
ART12.pdf
Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
D-10623 Berlin, Germany Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 19 october 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.
We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework.
The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science
The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.
In contrast to the longer tradition of impact assessment of Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Berlin University of Technology, Faculty
Blind@TU-Berlin. de. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
the United kingdom started with some cost-benefit analyses of regulations in the 1980s. Other European countries like Sweden or The netherlands followed in the mid 1990s.
Among the OECD countries, regulatory impact assessment gained a certain momentum after the publication of the OECD report on best practices in impact assessment 2. The growing interest in RIA in other countries, especially in Europe 3
reflects interrellate developments emerging over the past few years 4. First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition,
For over twenty years, the so-called New approach has been the most prominent and successful approach to link standardisation and regulatory policy.
The New approach, defined in a Council Resolution of May 1985, represents an innovative way of technical harmonisation.
and indeed requires, the inclusion of standards in our analysis. 497 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Regarding the impact assessment of standards,
but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 it necessary to anticipate these changes before they become reality 16.
A new understanding of foresight gaining acceptance in the 1990s starting with Irvine and Martin 17 made clear that a targeted shaping of future developments is limited strictly
an IST project of the 6th Framework programme. 499 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 also the results of the OECD 4. However,
Fahrenkrog et al. 19.500 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since our focus is mainly on regulatory foresight in the narrower sense,
the time between the applications of patents and the market introduction of products based on these patents requires in general several years
e g. the first MP3 patents were applied for in the late 1980s whereas the broad commercialisation started ten years later 23.
The need for regulatory adjustment is highest in those fields with a rather low level of activity at the starting point,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 call for adjustments or even for a completely new framework.
e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition
In a survey conducted in 1998 among companies of 12 manufacturing sectors in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, 2 Nevertheless,
Recently, Swann 18 used this information to assess the impact of British standards for the innovation activities of British companies. 504 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
A systematic and strategic approach to develop standards for the service sector was initiated in Germany in the year 2000 with a large project Service Standards for Global Markets funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research 34.
In October 2003, the European commission addressed a programming mandate to CEN CENELEC and ETSI in the field of services,
505 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 increasing demand for service-related standards and to coordinate the different national activities better.
and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology In contrast to other strategic aspects of organisations, assessing the future needs for standards
and definition Delphi studies achieved high popularity in Europe in the 1990s 10,11. The Delphi method was developed originally in the USA,
already in the 1960s 40,41 and regularly implemented by the Japanese government since 1970s 42. The Delphi methodology belongs to the subjective and intuitive methods of foresight.
the regulatory framework is of relatively small importance. 508 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 In contrast,
However, surveying the activities in the last years, we can only list some exercises, like surveys and trend workshops,
in the final section we will present some results of a small-scale Delphi study among participants of an ITU (International Telecommunication Union) expert workshop on Adjusting Forecasting methods to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector organised in September 2004.
already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,
Table 2 presents the assessment of the 21 telecommunication-related technologies expected to diffuse mostly within the next ten years.
One of these case studies focused on the future regulatory framework for the use of smart cards. 509 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Table 2 Future
NO-REST ITU Survey Fraunhofer ISI 2005)( 1=low importance to 5=high importance) Year Importance R&d Regulation Deregulation Standardisation Widespread use
and secrecy of individuals and groups from the intrusion of ill-intentioned network intruders. 2010 4. 88 4. 17 3. 13 1. 86 4. 28 Realisation of an environment in
which the unlimited utilisation of high-capacity networks (150 Mbps) for around 15€/month or less is possible. 2012 3. 88 3. 73 2. 77 2. 73 3
protection and verification. 2010 4. 03 3. 30 3. 83 2. 13 3. 90 Widespread use of systems which facilitate multimedia communication from anywhere in the world using pocketbook-size portable terminals
. 2010 3. 31 3. 70 2. 67 2. 50 3. 83 Development of an optical transmission system capable of high-volume transmission of 1
Peta bps per optical fibre. 2011 4. 20 4. 29 2. 39 2. 14 3. 61 Widespread use of a SCM (supply chain management system to handle data
and maintenance) uniformly among related companies. 2009 3. 33 3. 14 2. 39 2. 29 3. 54 Development of a super high-speed computer communication protocol capable
of achieving a throughput of tens of Gbps. 2011 3 71 4. 00 2. 50 2.
38 3. 19 Development of technology capable of automatically detecting viruses and automatically producing corresponding vaccines. 2010 4. 69 4. 03 2. 87 2. 47 3
exceeds 90%of all component parts. 2011 4. 16 4. 17 3. 97 2. 17 2. 83 Widespread use of a security technology that automatically monitors illicit
such as copyright infringement concerning multimedia software use over a network and the violation of privacy. 2012 3. 47 3. 13 3. 70 1. 73 2
which are available over networks 2011 3. 84 3. 66 4. 13 1. 73 3. 00 A service that evaluates the security of the e-commerce system of individual companies
and reports the results is used by 80%of consumers who use e-commerce services. 2011 4. 13 3. 64 3. 14 2. 29 3. 57 Practical use of card
and error correction method, by software operations. 2010 3. 57 3. 79 2. 64 2. 43 3. 43 Practical use of optical communication systems
capable of transmitting signals through multiplexed 1000 channels at 100 Gbps over a single optical fibre. 2013 3. 54 4. 00 2. 15 1. 69 3. 12 Widespread
use of gigabit-class global satellite communication systems. 2012 3. 69 4. 00 2. 46 2. 25 3. 46 More than 20%of retail shops earn more from their services (consulting, agent, etc.
than from their goods sales following the expansion of e-commerce. 2013 2. 53 2. 43 1. 39 2. 57 2. 00 Widespread use at the consumer purchase stage of a cost-plus pricing system
producer price) and intermediate distribution service price following 2021 2. 62 2. 17 1. 83 2. 33 2. 33 Reduction in urban traffic by 20
and tele-shopping. 2015 3. 73 3. 04 2. 93 2. 00 2. 21 Production on order rather than production on estimated demand becomes the norm due to the increased
reduction of inventory risk for companies. 2014 3. 65 3. 42 1. 86 2. 35 2. 38 All public transport bookings, confirmation of transport services,
or using portable terminals. 2009 3. 38 2. 97 2. 32 2. 04 3. 13 Improvement of the data communication environment and widespread use of telecommuting support services,
enabling at least half of company workers engaged in indirect duties to tele-commute. 2015 3. 25 3. 20 2. 53 2. 23 3. 07 510 K. Blind/Technological forecasting
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 pushed by adequate regulations, whereas again standardisation is assessed to be limited of effectiveness for achieving
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since Delphi surveys run at least two rounds, it is necessary to have samples
since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years. A classical feature of the Delphi methodology is the promotion of a convergence process leading to a consensus by surveying the experts at least twice
However, the databases provide further information about 512 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 regulation-relevant contents, like health,
) and future time horizon 513 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 representatives of public organisations and regulatory bodies,
In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,
Ex Post evaluation of Regulatory policies Proceedings from the OECD Expert Meeting September 2003, OECD (ed.),Paris:
OECD Publications Service,(2003. 514 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 5 European commission, European Governance:
Better Lawmaking, COM, Brussels, 2002.275 final. 6 C. Böhret, G. Konzendorf, Handbuch Gesetzesfolgenabschätzung (GFA) Gesetze, Verordnungen, Verwaltungsvorschriften, NOMOS Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden
Analysis of Regulations Shaping New Markets, European commission DG Enterprise (ed.),Luxembourg,(2004. 9 B. R. Martin, Foresight in science and technology, Technol.
Manag. 7 (2)( 1995) 139 168.10 K. Blind, K. Cuhls, H. Grupp, Current foresight activities in Central europe, Technol.
Change 60 (1)( 1999) 15 35.11 J. Landeta, Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences, Technol.
Change 73 (2006) 467 482.12 O k. Flechtheim, Futurologie Möglichkeiten und Grenzen, Frankfurt/M./Berlin, 1968.13 O. Helmer, Social Technology, Basic books, New york/London, 1966.14 J. W. Forrester
2002). ) 20 H. F. Moed, W. Glänzel, U. Schmoch (Eds. Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology research, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (The netherlands), 2004.21 K. Blind, The Economics of Standards Theory, Evidence, Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
Proceedings of the 3rd IEEE Conference on Standardisation and Innovation in Information technology, 2003, pp. 27 35, Delft. 24 H. Grupp, The Foundations of the Economics of Innovation theory, Measurement and Practice
Econ. 34 (16)( 2002) 1985 1998.26 R. Bekkers, G. Duysters, B. Verspagen, Intellectual property rights, strategic technology agreements and market structure the case of GSM
, Research policy, vol. 31 (7), 2002, pp. 1141 1161.27 K. Koch, M. Rafiquzzaman, S. Rao, The Impact of Regulatory policies on Innovation:
Cross country Evidence, ECO/WKP (2002) 2, OECD (ed.),Paris. 29 U. Blum, A. Töpfer, G. Eickhoff,
EURAS Proceedings 2004, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz in Aachen, Aachen, 2004, pp. 24 38.32 H. J. De vries, Standardization in service sectors exploration of market needs
in The netherlands, Proceeding of the First Interdisciplinary Workshop on Standardization Research, Universität der Bundeswehr, Hamburg, 1997, pp. 311 333.33 H. J. De vries, Standardization:
Beuth,(ed.)(2002. 515 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 35 I. Mörschel, C. Schwengels:
Standardisierungspotenziale für Dienstleistungen Ergebnisse einer allgemeinen Bedarfserhebung, Standardisierung in der deutschen Dienstleistungswirtschaft Potenziale und Handlungsbedarf.
Beuth Verlag Gmbh, pp. 51 65 (2002. 36 K. Blind, Standards in the Service Sectors:
J. 26 (4)( 2006. 38 European commission Enterprise Directorate-General, Programming Mandate Addressed to CEN, CENELEC and ETSI in the Field of Services, European commission, Brussels, 2003.39 K. Blind, S. Gauch, Frictions
explanations and solutions, EURAS Proceedings 2006, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz, Aachen, 2006, pp. 61 70.40 T. J. Gordon, O. Helmer, Report on a Long-range Forecasting
Deutscher Delphi-Bericht zur Entwicklung vonwissenschaft und Technik, Bonn,(ed.)(1993. 45 National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP;
Science and Technology agency (1997: The Sixth Technology Forecast Survey Future technology in Japan toward The Year 2025, No. 52, NISTEP Report, Tokyo,(1993.
46 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, H. Grupp, Delphi'98 Umfrage. Zukunft nachgefragt, Studie zur globalen Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik, Karlsruhe, 1998.47 K. Cuhls, T. Kuwahara, Outlook for Japanese and German Future technology
, Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1994.48 Science and Technology foresight Center (NISTEP), The Seventh Technoloy Forecast Future technology in Japan toward the Year 2030, No. 72
2001.49 K. Cuhls, S. Breiner, H. Grupp, Delphi-Bericht 1995 zur Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik Mini-Delphi, Bundesministerium für
BMBF,(1996. 50 S. Kuhlmann, C. Bättig, K. Cuhls, V. Peter, Regulation und künftige Technikentwicklung, Technik, Wirtschaft und Politik.
Maerz)( 2007) 6 10. Prof. Dr. Knut Blind is an economist by training and holds the chair on Innovation Economics at the Berlin University of Technology since 2006.
In addition he is head of the competence center Regulation and Innovation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research.
Since more than ten years he is conducting studies both in the area of technology foresight, but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
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