Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2012:
ART12.pdf
which the unlimited utilisation of high-capacity networks (150 Mbps) for around 15€/month or less is possible. 2012 3. 88 3. 73 2. 77 2. 73 3
such as copyright infringement concerning multimedia software use over a network and the violation of privacy. 2012 3. 47 3. 13 3. 70 1. 73 2
use of gigabit-class global satellite communication systems. 2012 3. 69 4. 00 2. 46 2. 25 3. 46 More than 20%of retail shops earn more from their services (consulting, agent, etc.
ART24.pdf
By 2012, health care authorities would not certify the approach without clinical testing. This leads to precaution by health insurance companies to cover the procedure.
5. 2. 2011 2012 nanoproducts proliferate The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes but framed by self-assessment mechanisms
Reference to UK government report of 2012 identifying gaps stimulates finger pointing at regulators for not following up.
ART26.pdf
2030 and the Kyoto Protocol's timeframe of 2008 2012. An interesting observation in both the cases analysed is that the members of the core strategy groups are also those responsible for implementing the strategy.
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
ART46.pdf
Thus, the following articles explore not only the opportunities and limitations of DOI 10.1108/14636681211256062 VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 279-281, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide PAGE 280 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 society.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 281 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.
ART47.pdf
PAGE 282 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 282-293, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.
PAGE 284 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 2. Known unknowns. These are the uncertainties in the Knightian sense
as a quantitative characterization of adverse effects in terms of the probability of its occurrence and the level of its impacts VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 285 nodes that are interlinked.
which they seek to PAGE 286 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 integrate knowledge of experts, stakeholders and also of laypeople in the process of policy making.
Brainstorming Quantitative models Open space Cost-benefit analysis Expert workshops Multi-criteria analysis Focus groups pta methods Explorative (qualitative) scenarios VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage
and Figure 1 Appropriate FTA METHODS for addressing different types of knowledge PAGE 288 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 help to turn such unknowns into knowns.
since the modelling had been based on VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 289 assumptions which they considered as being wrong.
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 291 Further research will be needed to elaborate on how the categorisation can be used most effectively for designing planning processes in the transport sector and beyond.
PAGE 292 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Kosow, H. and Gaßner, R. 2008),‘Methods of future and scenario analysis:
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 293 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART48.pdf
but there has been little specific consideration of how foresight techniques need to PAGE 294 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 294-303, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 295 Systems can also be unexpectedly very stable highly resistant to change by policy intervention-or very unstable such as where a policy intervention leads to stream of unexpected changes
PAGE 296 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Agents need to be able to see the adjacent deep valley a potential future peak,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 297 B Enable practitioners to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
angry birds PAGE 298 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 You realise, keep quiet and start to walk out of the shop;
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 299 describe the idea of harnessing complexity to deliberately change the structure of the system,
Adapted from Bhimji (2009) PAGE 300 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 bring the benefits of realising that there are more variations than originally thought of
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
www. bis. gov. uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizonscanning-centre/futuresinpolicyguidance. pdf (accessed 6 june 2012. Byrne, D. 1998), Complexity theory and the Social sciences:
PAGE 302 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mendonc¸A s.,Pine Cunha, M.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004), Futures, Vol
averil@alpha2omega. co. uk VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 303 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART49.pdf
and paths that would lead Finland to PAGE 304 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012,
The Delphi process was adopted to VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 305 provide a basis for a group communication process,
four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 307 First futures workshop The goal of the first futures workshop soon following the first Delphi round was to collect views
PAGE 308 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 1. Efficiency revolution (concentration on diminishing energy consumption.
the VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 309 Table II Attributes of the constructed scenarios Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily mile C
CCS technologies in use (continued) PAGE 310 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table II Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily
and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
In the evaluation, especially the scenario work is PAGE 312 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 acknowledged for bringing forward genuinely varied possibilities to achieve the emission targets.
Especially participatory methods where views of various different VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 313 experts are considered are recommended highly.
A brief look backward and forward'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78 No. 9, pp. 1712-9. PAGE 314 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mannermaa, M
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 315 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
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PAGE 316 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 316-335, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 317 3. The new concept of territorial foresight Three arguments are given to support the use of futures studies.
Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.
The VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 321‘‘green paradigm''is the manifestation of an environmentally aware society, in
For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years
and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.
Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque
its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority
making it PAGE 326 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K
Area of primary-production land needed to support the resource use of the dwellers on urban land VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 327 difficult to decouple the increasing environmental impact.
Figure 7 Current spatial scenario (2010) PAGE 328 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 5 Step 5:
Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly
Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve
Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial
PAGE 332 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B All public administrations European, national regional and local will have to be responsible
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 333 Ferna'ndez Gu ell, J. M. 2011),‘Recuperacio'n de los estudios del futuro
He has been a consultant for the European commission, the PAGE 334 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Inter-American Development Bank and the United nations Industrial Development Organization.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 335 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART51.pdf
looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
which VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 337 will in turn improve the prospects for evaluating processes and outcomes''(Cagnin and Keenan,
some of them, mind shattering) descriptions of the major forthcoming developments and PAGE 338 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 changes that the various branches
the continuous internationalisation of VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 339 rules and institutions or its stagnation or reverse;
''PAGE 340 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 While the‘‘Living Earth Simulator''will‘‘require the development of interactive decentralized supercomputing that scales up to global level systems
In other words, the reactive and responsive approaches that traditionally characterised the work of police VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 341 forces has been complemented with a research-based approach that strives to detect
back in 1933 and PAGE 342 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 in a BBC broadcast program, underlined the need for professors of foresight,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems PAGE 344 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 now established in most OECD countries.
to analyse and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 345 laws, contributing to the modernisation of current legislative processes;
PAGE 346 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 2. 3 The incorporation of FTA quantitative approaches to law.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way, and as explained in the last section of the article,
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 349 References Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Revisiting foresight rationales:
350 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Muller, S.,Zouridis, S.,Frishman, M. and Kistemaker, L. Eds)( 2011), The Law of the Future and the Future of Law
norberto. andrade@ec. europa. euvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 351 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART64.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges:
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI:
and today's ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 http://www. tandfonline. com
and Scapolo (2012) give some responses to these new demands on FTA. They pose a tentative claim that‘FTA
and F. Scapolo. 2012. The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy?
and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
accessed 6 august 2012. Linstone, H. A. 2011b. Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31, nos. 2 3: 69 76.
%202011. ppt (accessed 6 august 2012. Slaughter, R. A. 2008. Integral futures methodologies. Futures 40, no. 2: 103 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014
ART65.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715476 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
ilkka. tuomi@meaningprocessing. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476
Nishida 2012) have emphasissed the environment subject distinction fails to account for the mutual co-determination
Holopainen and Toivonen 2012. We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate.
and M. Toivonen. 2012. Weak signals: Ansoff today. Futures 44, no. 3: 198 205. Hughes, T. P. 1983.
Nishida, K. 2012. Logic and life. In place and dialectic: Two essays by Nishida Kitaro, trans.
ART66.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Denis Loveridge & Ozcan Saritas (2012) Ignorance and uncertainty:
influences on future-oriented technology analysis, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 753-767, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715477 To link to this article:
denis. loveridge@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080
Roberts 2012) and uncertainty in underpinning quantitative and qualitative thought in FTA. There is an evident paradox in characterising,
which the business has either strong or weak interdependencies or interlocking arrangements of a quite different character (Cagnin and Loveridge 2012).
. and D. Loveridge. 2012. A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
Roberts, J. 2012. Organizational ignorance: Towards a managerial prospective on the unkown. Management Learning, Sage Journals Online First, doi:
10.1177/1350507612443208, April 30, http://mlq. sagepub. com/(accessed May 31, 2012. Rumsfeld, D. 2002. Department of defense news briefing, February 12, http://www. defense. gov/transcripts/transcript. aspx?
ART67.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Harro van Lente (2012) Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations:
lessons from the sociology of expectations, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 769-782, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715478 To link to this article:
h. vanlente@uu. nl ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715478
ART68.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Riccardo Vecchiato (2012) Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 783-796, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
riccardo. vecchiato@polimi. it ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 http
ART69.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http
Chehebe (1998), ISO (2012), D'Avignon (1996), Cajazeira (1997), Donaire (1999), Maimon (1999), Accountability (1999), BSI (2003.
Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012. Embedding this form of dialogue in the proposed management framework improves the ways in
and interpret weak signals, wild cards (Amanatidou et al. 2012; Könnölä et al. 2012) and alternative options (Bezold et al. 2009;
Boden et al. 2010; Cagnin and Könnölä, forthcoming) to support decisionmakking All these are critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis (Shelton 1997;
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
Accountability 1000 framework standards, guidelines and professional qualification. http://www. accountability. org/(accessed June 2012.
and V. van-Rik. 2012. On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues.
Institute for Alternative futures. http://www. rockefellerfoundation. org/uploads/files/cf248c9f-3d6c-434a-9d1e-7909bb4c1feb. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
and M. Keenan. 2012. Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play.
ISO. 2012. International organisation for Standardisation. http://www. iso. org/iso/iso catalogue. htm (accessed June 2012.
Katzenbach, J. R, . and D. K. Smith. 1993. The wisdom of teams: Creating the high performance organization.
and E. Vilkkumaa. 2012. Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31.
On sustainability. http://phps. portals. mbs. ac. uk/Denisloveridge (accessed June 2012, go to personal page).
ART70.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Toni Ahlqvist, Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto, Jouko Myllyoja & Nina Wessberg (2012) Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture
, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
toni. ahlqvist@vtt. fi ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715490
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
This category also contains a methodology of innovation policy roadmapping (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012.
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
The project was realised in 2011 2012 byvtt and 10 companies represented the business network. The construction machinerywas defined as machines, tools,
and T. Loikkanen. 2012. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forwardloookin policy design. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 178 90.
and P. Pajakkala. 2012. Rakennuskonetoimialan visio ja tulevaisuustiekartta 2012 2020. A vision of the construction machinery sector and future roadmap 2012 2020.
VTT Asiakasraportti VTT-CR-00459-12. VTT, Tampere In Finnish. Paiho, S.,T. Ahlqvist, E. Lehtinen, J. Laarni, K. Sipilä, P. Ala-Siuru,
and T. Parkkila. 2007. Talotekniikan kehityslinjaat Teknologiat ja markkinat Development trajectories of the building services.
ART71.pdf
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
huanglu628@163. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 http
ART75.pdf
and implement the federal goal-oriented programme‘‘S&t priorities for Development of the Russian S&t Sector in 2007-2012''.
ART77.pdf
Received 14 may 2011 Accepted 18 september 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change
and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: FTA practices Fundamental change and transformations Grand challenges 1. Introduction Drawing upon a critical reflection on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.001 Contents lists available at Sciverse
Manag. 24 (8)( 2012) 753 767.3 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis, Technol.
Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
ART78.pdf
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 9 july 2012 Accepted 3 september 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 The FTA COMMUNITY relies on a set of disciplines and methods,
combining research and practice, to overcome such barriers. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Qualitative Quantitative Barriers Combination Integration FTA Epistemological divide 1. Introduction The methodological debate has been a relevant element of the International Seville Conference series on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.002 Contents lists available at Sciverse
and sustainability 43 (See http://www. sitra. fi/en/articles/2012/strategic-design-finlandsneewapproach-problem-solving).
Manage. 24 (8)( 2012) 735 751.15 J. Calof, J. E. Smith, Critical success factors for government-led foresight, Sci.
Manage. 24 (8)( 2012) 769 782.20 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, Ignorance and uncertainty: influences on FTA, Technol.
Manage. 24 (8)( 2012) 753 767.21 K. Haegeman, K. M. Weber, T. Könnölä, Preparing for grand challenges:
Manage. 24 (8)( 2012) 729 734.22 A. Eerola, I. Miles, Methods and tools contributing to FTA:
management, Policy Pract. 14 (3)( 2012) 449 469.40 F. K. Jin, W. R. Fah, N d. En, L. M. Wei, L
)( 2012) 56 68.75 H. White, Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches in poverty analysis, World Dev. 30 (3)( 2002) 511 522.76 C. Ansell, A. Gash
ART79.pdf
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 22 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 28 november 2012 To estimate the future development of one technology
and make their R&d strategy accordingly. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Technology life cycle Patent Indicator Cathode ray tube Thin film transistor liquid crystal display Nano-biosensor 1. Introduction The rapidly changing economic environment
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.003 Contents lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
Appl. 39 (3)( 2012) 2927 2938.38 E. Hajime, Obstacles for the acceptance of technology foresight to decision makers, lessons from complaint analysis of technology forecasting, Int. J. Foresight Innov.
Change 79 (1)( 2012) 16 29.40 A l. Porter, Technology foresight: types and methods, Int. J. Foresight Innov.
ART80.pdf
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 2 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 Developing strategies,
it is also appropriate for any long-term structural and systematic transformation characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.004 Contents lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
Change 79 (2012) 311 325.36 D. B. Agusdinata Exploratory modeling and analysis: a promising method to deal with deep uncertainty, in:
ART81.pdf
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 12 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 29 october 2012 Exploratory Modeling
which are key activities of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.005 Contents lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
ART82.pdf
Received 4 july 2011 Received in revised form 24 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 11 november 2012 In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis,
This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.006 Contents lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
Soc. 41 (2012) 107 125.50 L. Borjesön, M. Hojer, K.-H. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques:
ART83.pdf
Received 24 july 2011 Received in revised form 7 july 2012 Accepted 3 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 This paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
Especially the inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Schaper-Rinkel@ait. ac. at. 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore
ART84.pdf
Received 14 may 2011 Revised 25 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations.
and potential structural transformation of innovation processes. 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. Keywords: Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.008 Contents lists available at Sciverse Sciencedirect Technological forecasting
It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.
Ansoff Today, Futures 44 (2012) 198 205.32 B. Ralston, W. Ralston, The Scenario planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int
combining insights from innovation systems and multilevel perspective in a comprehensive‘failures'framework, Research policy 41 (2012) 1037 1042.
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