Received 25 june 2012 Accepted 17 august 2012 Available online 3 november 2012 Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
Dealing with disruptive transformations is seen as the key forward challenge for the practice of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Georghiou et al. 6. 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.10.009 Contents
Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 140 152.13 A. Schoen T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber
Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS
Futures 44 (2012) 475 486.30 S. A. Van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,
(2)( 2012) 191 207.12 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011.
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 41 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA and equity: new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 49 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, E. Vilkkumaa, Facing the future:
scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 50 C. Bezold, C. Bettles, C. Juech, E. Michelson, J. Peck, K. Wilkins, Foresight for Smart Globalization:
of new business fields, Technological forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) 819 831.40 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel
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short term (2007 2012), medium term (2012 2017), and long term (beyond 2017). The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei
to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017
so that is what we will Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 135 139 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs026 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com do';‘
<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed March 2012. The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139
This paper discusses this decision-making environment and a relevant Brazilian Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 245 257 doi:
10.1093/scipol/scs015 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 258 270 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs006 Advance Access published on 17 february 2012 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com Similarly, in an editorial in Science, Shi and Rao (2010) argue that bureaucrats misuse
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 271 281 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs008 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com The government's research, technology development and innovation (RTDI) policies,
This new orientation is perhaps nowhere more in evidence than at the EU level, where grand societal Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 140 152 doi:
10.1093/scipol/scs014 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
Increased mobility, the instantaneoou impact of events through social media and the socioculttura interconnections linking Europe to the rest of Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 153 165 doi:
10.1093/scipol/scs012 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
Cagnin et al. 2012; Keenan et al. 2012. Disruptive events highlight the vulnerability of governannc and economic systems at local, national,
European and global levels in the face of sudden crises and point to serious shortcomings in our ability to anticipate
In recent years, institutional responses have included the setting up of horizonscanning centres and similar anticipattor structures (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
Amanatidou et al. 2012) in the UK, Netherlands and Singapore at national or regional levels, aimed at identifyiin not only major long-term trends and drivers,
Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin (2012) have illustrated that when a governmental organisation decides to use FTA METHODS,
In another example of embedded FTA, Calof (2012) as well as Calof et al. 2012) report on the setting up of foresight units within several departments at the federal level in Canada.
In essence, we can conclude that the horizontal convergence of FTA competencies is what is called for,
2012) Focuses on gradual multilevel complex deliberate transformatiions which can be identified with a roadmapping exercise Identification of suitable policy instruments and/or strategies for various governance modes External service (projects and programmes),
2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
and analyse weak signals (Amanatidou et al. 2012). 6. Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union,<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/innovation-union-communication en. pdf>accessed 15 december
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ICSU is a non-governmental organisation with a global membership of national scientific bodies Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 166 177 doi:
10.1093/scipol/scs019 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
UN Commission on Sustainable development, Rio+20 Earth Summit in 2012. ICSU has been using foresight practices for some time to determine research priorities (Teixeira et al. 2002)
To this end, the conduct of the foresight exercise has been synchronized closely with the development of the ICSU strategic plan 2012 7 (ICSU 2011a)
and are being carried mostly over into the new strategic plan (2012 7). Therefore, the new exercise set out to focus on the exploration of possible futures of international science cooperation
Phase 3 march 2011 to February 2012: Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,
ICSU is seen as an independent platform able to bring together funders and the science community to co-design programmes, building on the success of the Earth System Sustainability Initiative, 2012 22.
Furthermore, as part of its Initiative On earth System Sustainability, 2012 22, ICSU worked with funding agencies to encourage the development of internatioona courses targeted at developing the ability of young researchers to conduct interdisciplinary research.
2011a) ICSU Strategic Plan II, 2012 2017. Paris: International council for science..(2011b)‘ ICSU Foresight Analysis Report 1:
In Section 3 we Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 178 190 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs016 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com outline the methodological background and the policy ratioonal of IPRM.
Finally, it draws conclusions for foresight in transnational research programming. 2. Co-ordination of transnational programming The co-ordination of cross-national public research involves a set of challenges in bridging potentially Science and Public policy 39 (2012
10.1093/scipol/scs020 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
As current governance systems are incapable of tackling current and future, interconnected, global challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012),
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Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com A relevant tool for this purpose is defined horizon scanning as:..
2012) regard horizon scanning as:..a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
Ko nno la, T.,Salo, A.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V. and Vilkkumaa, E. 2012)‘ Facing the future:
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as well as persistent problems or trends. 1 At present, various forms of horizon scanning are quite widespread (Amanatidou et al. 2012),
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 222 231 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs021 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com. Are felt to be potential indications of new emerging issues that may have received insufficient attention..
or energy, health and cognitive enhancement (Amanatidou et al. 2012). Dedicated centres have been established to provide horizontal support for government departments (e g.
Methodological advances have been pursued, for instance, in the Framework programme 7 Blue sky Foresight projects on emerging issues that shape European science and technoloog (Amanatidou et al. 2012.
2012) concluded that the analysis of signals and emerging issues as well as ensuing workshops need to be structured around specific policy challenges
2012) consider three ideal-type models for FTA, namely:.individual projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives. dedicated units providing continuous input to their embedding
which increases its relevaanc for initiatives such as the European Forum on Forward Looking Activities and the Joint Programming in Research (Ko nno la et al. 2012).
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The idea fits well with the Fraunhofer mission, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 232 244 doi:
10.1093/scipol/scs018 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
the European population would start to decrease from 2012. A third of the world's population is undernourished.
Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.
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