Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2008:
ART10.pdf
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.
and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Foresight; Technology foresight;
Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.
0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.006 1. Introduction When is a foresight process effective?
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 there is a need to move a step beyond collective processes
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information
465 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 distinct from‘technology forecasting'and the like. 3 This broadening
and in Hungary 14.466 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 influenced by its results.
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Finally it should be pointed out that this criticism against
the FOREN guide 17 and the UNIDO Technology foresight Manual 18.468 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 2
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 information on any particular fire and consequently it will have to build on more generic knowledge on different sorts of fires, their probabilities and the like.
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 adaptable enough to allow the second-period decision to go for any of the considered visionary structures at reasonable lead-time
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 planned proved difficult to pursue to the letter.
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 It should be clear from the two last bullets above that Adaptive foresight does not come with a onesiizefits-all implementation.
and that the original client gives his full consent. 473 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 3. 2. 2. Phase 1:
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 While there are many ways to use such knowledge,
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 identifying a hierarchy of driving variables such that some are seen as more fundamental/independent and others as more derived.
(2008) 462 482 3. 2. 7. Phase 6: identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.
In other words, so far we have been mainly discussing the early phases of the 477 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 policy process.
see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 AF offers a learning framework rather than just an impressionistic one.
Participatory Technology assessment, European Perspectives, CSD, London, 2002.480 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482
. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 36 R. Compano, C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman, M. Rader, R
and in the emergence and performance of R&d collaboration networks. 482 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482
ART11.pdf
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS
and participatory workshops in promoting foresight activities within ERA NETS and European coordination tools. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.
+358 20 722 7007.0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.005 1. Introduction Increasingly, foresight activities exhibit elements of international collaboration
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 programs to the institutionalization of a new legal entity for allocating a common pot of resources through competitive calls for proposals.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 different countries in order to promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the European forest cluster.
Research activities are due to start in 2008. The activities in Woodwisdom-Net are carried out in five work packages (WP.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 (and arguably in many other international consultation processes, too) was the multiplicity of interfaces
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Woodwisdom-Net which also provided feedback on it.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 leaders, and especially those that were evaluated favorably were discussed in a series of four workshops.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Industrial leaders evaluated issues, and a total of some 50 Industrial leaders participated the assessment phase.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 maker would not choose a dominated portfolio,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 program. In each country, thenational Coordinators identified one representative from wood-material-based industry and one member of the research community and invited these to the workshops.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 research sub-area, participants were encouraged to comment on the issues within it (approx. 1 h). Third, for each of the research sub-areas,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 participants will be invited to workshops and in what phases of the process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495
ART12.pdf
Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.
The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
In contrast to the longer tradition of impact assessment of Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Berlin University of Technology, Faculty
Blind@TU-Berlin. de. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
and indeed requires, the inclusion of standards in our analysis. 497 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Regarding the impact assessment of standards,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 it necessary to anticipate these changes before they become reality 16.
an IST project of the 6th Framework programme. 499 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 also the results of the OECD 4. However,
Fahrenkrog et al. 19.500 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since our focus is mainly on regulatory foresight in the narrower sense,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 call for adjustments or even for a completely new framework.
e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition
Recently, Swann 18 used this information to assess the impact of British standards for the innovation activities of British companies. 504 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
505 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 increasing demand for service-related standards and to coordinate the different national activities better.
and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology In contrast to other strategic aspects of organisations, assessing the future needs for standards
the regulatory framework is of relatively small importance. 508 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 In contrast,
One of these case studies focused on the future regulatory framework for the use of smart cards. 509 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Table 2 Future
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 pushed by adequate regulations, whereas again standardisation is assessed to be limited of effectiveness for achieving
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since Delphi surveys run at least two rounds, it is necessary to have samples
However, the databases provide further information about 512 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 regulation-relevant contents, like health,
) and future time horizon 513 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 representatives of public organisations and regulatory bodies,
514 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 5 European commission, European Governance:
515 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 35 I. Mörschel, C. Schwengels:
but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516
ART13.pdf
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.
if ways are found for closing gaps in the innovation chain. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.
0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.002 1. Lacunae and prospects of assessment and alignment tools for emerging science and technology For innovation to succeed actor alignment in the form of innovation chains from laboratory to products
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 of alignment to allow for the creation of innovation chains in the field of micro and nanotechnology.
and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty
sample preparation, pretreattment analysis, manipulation and removal. 520 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538
Deuten 2003, page 14). 521 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 then sustained by increasing returns.
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 With respect to the first notion a path lies at the domain level.
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 This can be translated into a prospective innovation chain diagram (see Fig. 2) where we see scientific and technological research on the left-hand side of the diagram,
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The central bubble describes the further technical development of an experimental integration of elements into a working lab-on-a-chip device
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 be illustrated and discussed. In the following two sections we will describe both MPMS,
(2008) 517 538 single cell based biosensors 61,62 etc.,are now being circulated by many of both the TAS and biology communities.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 however can use different approaches and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram.
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Such an MPM-1 can be useful for developing a portfolio of research projects
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 describe the details of the workshop process elsewhere. 17 Here we focus on the results relating to the MPM-2. The group identified a number of existing
www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product
4) Heterogeneous clusters. 531 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 move towards a generic platform
& Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 experiment. For example, the University of Hull's crime scene forensic device is one case where funding was given to develop a prototype device for DNA analysis,
From the outset 533 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 no preference can be given to any chain,
and ways of bridging 534 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 the gaps.
Manag. 32 (3 4)( 2005) 388 407.535 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538
, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 39 R. Garud, P. Karnøe, Path creation as a process of mindful deviation, in:
Policy (36)( 2007) 871 879.537 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 68 D
75 (2008) 517 538
ART14.pdf
Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts,
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.
15-16 St mary's House, St mary's Road, Shoreham-by-Sea, West sussex, UK-BN43 5za. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights
The research mainly involved a literature review of available documentation on past and present foresight programmes and their results. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 knowledge societies are to flourish. Given this, there is need to develop a model capable of describing
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.
see 1. 542 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 the literature review,
'drivers and factors shaping modern societies. 7 See for example 2100 543 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 versions
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 This can be enriched by taking further sub-objectives and related impacts into account,
'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 goal can be identified and what factors lead to
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 in three categories: immediate; intermediate;
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 The evaluation was critical of the intervention logic,
thus providing comprehensive lists of criteria and important factors in different conditions and environments. 550 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539
551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,
'552 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 competition, crowding and speed;(
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 information, but also by people's wants, motives, personalities, experiences, value systems, wishes, hopes, expectations, beliefs, feelings, attitudes, needs and concerns.
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557‘knowledge society'are required also to enhance participatory governance and vice versa,
The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,
the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
75 (2008) 539 557
ART15.pdf
Devising futures for universities in a multilevel structure: A methodological experiment Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budaörsi út 45.
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Universities have traditionally been key players in producing and validating new scientific knowledge,
(2008) 558 582 E-mail address: havasatt@econ. core. hu. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.001 levels, the stakeholders of universities, as well as academics interested in prospective analysis of innovation systems. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Alternative futures for the EU; The European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) and universities; Trends and drivers for changes;
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 starting point the‘unit of analysis'is either an existing or an abstract (hypothetical) university.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 This is a sort of‘top-down'approach, and hence a number of‘micro-level'factors might be missing,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 2. The role of universities in knowledge production 2. 1. The changing landscape of research systems Universities have traditionally been key players in
For a more detailed discussion, see, e g. 31.562 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 As for the third aspect, the very fact that universities'research efforts lead to rather diverse outputs (outcomes
signalling in itself no great likelihood of later worldly success. 37.563 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 of universities,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The most important recent key trends concern the roles/responsibilities of universities.
and as the training of the future generation of researchers. 565 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The most important driving forces can be derived by considering the increasingly intense global competition in research activities;
566 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 evolve, 23 and that could change the‘ecology'quite radically, e g. in terms of more pronounced variety,
see, e g. 1, 22,42. 567 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 3. Stronger, better articulated needs for multi-(trans;
let alone among different types of them. 568 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 4. Futures for universities Vision-building requires an intense dialogue among stakeholders for two reasons:(
569 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Futures developed in genuine foresight processes can be direct (or positive) inputs for policy preparation or strategy building processes:
facilitate innovation and promote entrepreneurship. 570 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 vis-à-vis competitiveness;
but a flexible interpretation of the Triad regions can easily include any relevant countries. 571 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Table 2 Features of the ERIA in two
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 be made concerning the probability of these visions. In other words, we do not have any sound
and/or leading to waste of public resources. 573 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 all five of them are equally relevant from a policy strategy) point of view.
and thus devote more intellectual and financial resources to it. 574 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 other internal processes to the ever changing external environment, expressed by the needs of their‘clients':
are considered in 21.575 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The methods, approaches,
as well as by offering these new types of insights for other actors 576 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 universities,
not directly related to research activities of universities, are discussed in 21.577 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 touch with reality.
and on the‘mission'of the European 578 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Innovation and Research area are made in a transparent and conscious way.
The national 579 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 governments, international organisations and associations of universities can provide methodological and financial support for these initiatives.
Implications for Innovation policy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 1999.580 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 15 OECD, New Rationale
http://www. europa. eu. int/comm/regional policy/sources/docoffic/2007/osc/index en. htm. 581 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. 582 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582
ART16.pdf
Building on the success of the 2004 and 2006 events, the third edition of the Conference in October 2008
The papers and technical notes assembled from the 2008 FTA Conference were selected carefully and further nurtured to bring out three key themes:
To conclude this special issue we welcome the column From My Perspective of the Founder and Editor-In-chief of this journal and one of the key participants of the FTA 2008 Seville Conference, Professor Harold A. Linstone.
Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference. Online source:
She was the leader of the VTT Technology foresight and Technology assessment in 1999 2008 being also the Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge center since 2007.
ART17.pdf
Received 17 november 2008 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring and analyzing systemic change in technology.
dated 4 february 2008 27. Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28.
The history demonstrates that the first introduction of the page was 23 may 2008. The first release by Microsoft of a beta version of the browser incorporating the new standards was 5 March 2008.
In summary, the hierarchical random graph did seem to anticipate new technological changes in the area of new standards for accessible rich Internet applications.
and Matlab scripts as provided by Aaron Clauset on his webpage (Clauset 2008). The author appreciates helpful discussion from Jan Kwakkel on the epistemology of knowledge networks.
PICMET, 2007.20 S. P. Hubbell, The Unified Natural Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton university Press, Princeton, 2001.21 A. Clauset, Hierarchical Random Graph, 2008, Accessed 25 august
/22 A. Clauset, C. Moore, M. E. J. Newman, Hierarchical structure and the prediction of missing links in networks, Nature 453 (2008) 98 101.23 M. Sales
4 february 2008,2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://www. w3. org/TR/wai-aria-roadmap/./28 Wikipedia, WAI-ARIA, 2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Accessible rich internet applications. 29 R. Henderson, K. M. Clark, Architectural innovation:
the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms, Adm. Sci. Q. 35 (1990) 9 30.30 S g. Green, M. B. Gavin, L. Aiman-Smith, Assessing a multidimensional measure of radical technological innovation, IEEE Trans.
ART18.pdf
Received 11 march 2008 Received in revised form 6 april 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide.
These cases were run between late 2006 and early 2008. In the next section, we present the process
Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.8 A. Salo, K. Cuhls, Technology foresight past and future, J. Forecast. 22 (2 3)( 2003) 79 82.9 P
Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.21 J. F. Coates, Scenario planning from my perspective, Technol. Forecast.
towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008
Change 75 (9)( 2008) 1360 1372.31 A w. Müller, Strategic foresight Prozesse strategischer Trend-und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen, Universität Zürich, Zürich, Druckerei Zentrum, 2008.32
Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1279 1302.50 P. A. Steenhof, B c. Mcinnis, A comparison of alternative technologies to decarbonize Canada's passenger transportation sector, Technol.
Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1260 1278.51 P. Moriarty, D. Honnery, Low-mobility: the future of transport, Futures 40 (10)( 2008) 865 872.52 G. Munda, Social multi-criteria evaluation:
methodological foundations and operational consequences, Eur. J. Oper. Res. 158 (3)( 2004) 662 677.53 J. J. Winebrake, B. P. Creswick, The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation:
Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 62 89.59 M. Rask, Foresight balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence, Technol.
Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1157 1175.60 J. Galla, U. Kopp, A. Martinuzzi, E. Störmer, Focus on actors initial experiences with system constellations in theory-based evaluations, Z. Eval. 7 (1)( 2008) 35 73.61 J. Mayers, Stakeholder power
analysis. Power tools series, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 2005.62 E. Störmer, Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,
A. Fink, O. Schlake, Scenario management: an approach to develop future potentials, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
ART19.pdf
Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools,
In the Book‘Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy',Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 25 40.2 T.,Könnölä, T.,Ahlqvist, A.,Eerola, S.,Kivisaari, R.,Koivisto
http://reports. eea. europa. eu/GH-07-97-595-EN-C2/en/riskindex. html (read June 12th 2008.
2008) January/February 2008. doi-link: http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. jchas. 2007.07.001 (Read June 12th 2008.
25 International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), IEC 61882: 2001. Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP Studies) Application Guide, Geneva, Switzerlaand 2001.26 T. A. Kletz, Plant Design for Safety:
Tours, France, 15 18 june 2008. ISPIM, 2008.37 R. Molarius, N. Wessberg, J. Keränen, J. Schabel, Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure hydropower plant case, Finland,
XXV Nordic Hydrological Conference Northern Hydrology and its Global Role (NHC-2008), Reykjavík, Iceland. 11 13,august 2008, 2008.38 B. Walker, D. Salt, Resilience Thinking.
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