Synopsis: Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2008:


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Received 10 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 Along with increasing significance of innovation in socioeconomic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making.


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Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 In September 2007,

An online survey among experts from the German innovation landscape was performed in September 2008 in order to get broader assessment on the topics,

a nationwide online survey was carried out in September 2008. The results from this survey, expert interviews and a set of criteria were supposed to be inputs to select interesting candidates for BMBF relating to the targets 1) and 2) of the process. 3. 3. The online survey Intentionally

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 For the survey, in September 2008 altogether 19.365 persons from German companies, academia, associations and single persons (consultants or persons

A reminder was sent at the end of September 2008 and the survey was finished on October 22, 2008. The survey was accessed via the code we sent to the participants.

If someone else wanted to participate, it was necessary to contact the project office to receive a new code. 2659 persons filled in one of the questionnaires,

and implementation phase An international workshop at the beginning of October 2008 marked the link to generate ideas for recommendations concerning policies

The workshop in autumn 2008 is supposed to directly contribute to the theoretical and case study discussion for the translation of outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

Future-oriented technology analysis, Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 71 87.23 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodological developments in FTA, in:

Future-oriented technology analysis, Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 149 162.24 S. Kuhlmann, R. Smits, The rise of Systemic Instruments in Innovation policy, Int. Journal of Foresight

L. Georghiou (Ed.),The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practice, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation policy, 2008, pp. 131 152.29 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, Knut


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Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

We would also like to thank the participants of the April 2008 BLOSSOM workshop in Copenhagen

and the participants of the 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis which took place in October 2008 for useful discussions and comments.

report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:

http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20%Scanning%20centre/Fanclubnews/Feb2008. asp (accessed 7th july 2008.

Lett. 3 (2008) 045012.8 P. Bishop, A. Hines, T. Collins, The current states of scenario development:

Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.13 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs, Y. Hoogeveen, Your vision or my model?

Action Res. 21 (6)( 2008) 459 477.14 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying public policy, Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford

Lett. 3 (2008) 045015.22 W c. Clark, R. B. Mitchell, D. W. Cash, Evaluating the influence of global environmental assessments, in:

L. Wainfan, Presenting Uncertainty About Climate change to Water Resource Managers, 2008, RAND Corporation, TR-505-NSF. 28 R c.

Integrating the Environment for Sustainability, Edgar Elgar Publishing, London, 2008, pp. 114 133.42 Scottish government, National Planning Framework 2 SEA Annex to the Environmental Report:


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Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 The democratic deficit (the‘deficit'hereafter) in present institutional Foresight(‘Foresight'hereafter) lies in its participation regime.

Technology and Strategic management 20 (1)( 2008) 29 44 January 24 P. Berg, et al. Potential Biohazards of RECOMBINANT DNA Molecules, Science (1974) 303.


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Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 17 july 2009 Potentially breakthrough science

production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.

By mid 2008 the patchwork of codes of conduct, best practices and measures of responsible innovation remains misaligned,

By mid 2008 the regulation void continues and soft law is taken as an interim solution to allow nano to go ahead Observed misalignment:

the codes are positioned here as useful additions to existing (well regulated) areas like medical devices 6..By the end of 2008 advanced cantilever arrays

Change 75 (2008) 517 538.7 A. Rip, J. Schot, Identifying loci for influencing the dynamics of technological development, in:

Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.11 P. Larédo, E. Jolivet, E. Shove, S. Raman, A. Rip, E. Moors, B. Poti, G

Change 75 (3 march 2008) 312 333.35 A. Rip, M. van Amerom, Emerging de facto Agendas Around Nanotechnology:


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8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.

It is worth highlighting that the exercise has identified a competence area linked to the financial and economic crisis of 2008 09,

The above papers, a selected subset representing the themes1 of the 2008 FTA Conference offer a clear insight that smarter policy and corporate decision-making processes are needed to deal with recent crisis and the threat of discruptive changes.

Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ian Miles Note 1. Reflecting the 2008 FTA Conference emphasis on impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making


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2030 and the Kyoto Protocol's timeframe of 2008 2012. An interesting observation in both the cases analysed is that the members of the core strategy groups are also those responsible for implementing the strategy.

-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own


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2008. It is important to understand that the institutional changes and budget increases at the turn of the century represent attempts to shift public research away from a largely‘responsive'and mostly industrially-oriented mode to a more long-term, strategic mode.

The Centre of Competence in Molecular Medicine was launched in 2008 as an initiative of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Health and the MCHER.

and to remain relevant while pushing at the‘normal'boundaries of debate (Keenan and Miles 2008.

and analysis. Similar shortcomings have also been noted by Meyer 2008 who comments that Luxembourg's‘current science policy appears to be almost too ambitious,..

contrary to previous findings (Crehan and Cassingena-Harper 2008), this did not make coordination easier in Luxembourg

A first call for project proposals was launched in early 2008, some two years after the initial deadline,

the FNR launched a call for project proposals based on the Foresight results at the beginning of 2008. The FNR received the highest number of proposals (in absolute terms and in relation to the available budget) across all priorities.

Cyprus and Estonia as part of the eforesee project (see Crehan and Cassingena-Harper 2008). Outside of Europe, the Commonwealth Science Council has funded work examining design

. and J. Cassingena-Harper. 2008. Technology foresight in smaller countries. In The handbook of technology foresight, eds.

and I. Miles. 2008. Scoping and planning foresight. In The handbook of technology foresight, eds. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena.

and technology priority setting in a small country 951 Meyer, M. 2008. The dynamics of science in a small country:


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of which are to be started in 2008. The core process was conducted between autumn 2006 and autumn 2007.

Examples are‘Adaptive foresight'(Eriksson andweber 2008) and‘Sustainability foresight'(Truffer, Voss, and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 956 K. M. Weber et al.

Konrad 2008. This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.

From this perspective, foresight can be interpreted as an integral element of networked and distributed policy making by providing three crucial functions (Da Costa et al. 2008;

Eriksson and Weber 2008; Weber 2006) which in line with the networktyyp distributed model of policy-making processes are provided simultaneously rather than in distinct phases:(

In this context, Vienna's network-based location of research and innovation will be strengthened further. 4. 4. Implementation the schedule for 2008 and beyond Based on the objectives,

'and are likely to be implemented in the first 2 3 years after the end of the strategy process (see Figure 2). For the year 2008 the initial three projects have been endowed with approximately¤14 million:(

A first call in this new area was launched in the first half of 2008, focusing on Arts&sciences.

A first event will take place in autumn 2008. 3) In revising the City of Vienna business promotion principles‘ZIT 08plus'more attention will be given to crosscutting issues of RTI policies,

The newbusiness promotion principles were introduced at the beginning of 2008 already. Other kickoff projects as well as further initiatives are planned to be launched from 2009 onwards.

Its implementation has been accelerated by the economic crisis in 2008/2009 that has led to an increase in funding for RTI as part of city's economic

Between 2006 and 2008 hewas leading a research programme on regional innovation patterns and policy in cooperation with the City of Vienna.

and C. Cagnin. 2008. The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20: 369 87.

and M. Weber. 2008. Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 462 82.

and K. Konrad. 2008. Mapping expectations for system transformations. Lessons for sustainability foresight in German utility sectors.


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and Lau (2003), towards a new understanding of foresight methodology and practice (Fuller and De Smedt 2008).

Rask (2008), Van't Klooster and Van Asselt (2006). 3. About the relationship between foresight and decision making see Brown et al.

. and P. de Smedt. 2008. Modernisation of foresight methodology: reflexivity and the social construction of knowledge, a note to authors in COSTA22.

and I. Miles, eds. 2008. The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Johnston, R. 2008. Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis. In Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,

Loveridge, D. 2008. Foresight: the art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. Loveridge, D,

Rask, M. 2008. Foresight balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 8: 1157 75.


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Eriksson and Weber 2008; Hekkert et al. 2007; Salo, Könnölä, and Hjelt 2004.**Corresponding author. Email:

Rask 2008) with the aim of aligning the methodological design of the exercise with the explicit and even implicit objectives that are placed on the exercise.

These two main funding agencies for basic and applied technological research (which had annual funding appropriation of some¤297 million and¤527 million in 2008,

Könnölä, and Salo 2008) which made it easier to compare results. Second, the questionnaires supported the consideration of interfaces in that the panellists were requested to specify which other panels their driving forces

and economic crisis of 2008 09) was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments, due to its relatively small size and the structure of its economy.

The objectives of this process whose Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 Axes of balance in foresight 997 results were published in June 2008

Rask 2008. We therefore reflect on Finnsight along four design attributes (see also Könnölä et al. 2009) that are concerned with (1) instrumental vs informative use of foresight results;(

and A. Salo. 2008. Foresight within ERA NETS: experiences from the preparation of an international research program.

Eriksson, E. A. and K. M. Weber. 2008. Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies.

Rask, M. 2008. Foresight balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 8: 1157 75.


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The 2008 FTA Conference continued the focus on the‘‘impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.

impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R

. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 267 269.11 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.12 O. Saritas, C. Cagnin, A. Havas,


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Acknowledgements This paper is based on a workshop organised by the JRC-IPTS European foresight Action at Seville, Spain, June 2008.

References 1 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, Minerva 46 (3)( 2008) 285 315.2 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan,

insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.9 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:

navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.10 B.-A°.Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation:

(ERA), European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.19 D. Braun, Special issue on‘‘The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies'',Science and Public policy 35 (4)( 2008.


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the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent

from trend based logics to open foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 321 336.8 OECD, Choosing Priorities in Science and Technology, OECD, Paris, 1991.9 K

a methodological experiment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 558 582.26 K. Cuhls, R. Johnston, Corporate foresight, in:

, S. Schneider, Improving the business impact of foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 339.29 P. Becker, Corporate Foresight in Europe:

Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.33 L. Georghiou, Challenging Europe's research, Nature 452 (24)( 2008) 935 936.34 E. Aho, J. Cornu

experiences from the preparation of an international research program, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 483 495.36 M. Cariola, S. Rolfo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe

methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy


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The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/intro. html. 2009-11-10). 2 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The Rise of systemic instruments

insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari

The EPIS Annual Monitoring Synthesis Report, The Role of ICTS as Enabler for Energy efficiency, the European Perspectives on Information society (EPIS) project, 11/2008, EUR Number:


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Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.16 M. Jaspers, H. Banthien, J. Mayer-Ries, New forms


ART43.pdf

On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.

http://www. thegreatdebate. org. uk/GDDSEDL1. html, last visited on 03 october 2008. 2 B. Ulrich, Risk Society:

United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (2008. 10 COM, European Governance:

California Management Review 2 (1960) 70 76.34 B. Gates, Making Capitalism More Creative, Time Inc.,2008 July 31.

Strategic intelligence for An Innovative economy, Springer, 2008. C. Cagnin et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 291


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Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,

Global Futures Forum Vancouver April 2008, Europe@2025 European commission. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage:

The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,

'Steinmueller 8 also has an excellent overview of wild cards in the 2008 RAHS Booklet on Foresight:

(FTA) 2008 Conference, previous FTA meetings tended to focus on methodology, policy linkages and success factors for Foresight design & delivery.

The Scientific Committee of the FTA 2008 Conference heard that some attendees felt that an opportunity had been missed to discuss future Foresight determinants

2008 2015; 2016 2025; beyond 2025.3.1.2. Data set Total surveys submitted: 293; substantive completion: 106 (about 50%of FTA Conference attendees;

whereas the majority of the respondents from business envisaged shorter time horizon for the emergence of trends (between 2008 and 2015.

whereas the respondents with maximum 3 years of experience had a shorter time horizon (2008 2015).

the EFMN issue analysis, Foresight 10 (2008) 6, 90 102.3 DCDC, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme:

Mobility, 2008. Available at: http://www. socialtechnologies. com/Fileview. aspx? filename=PR DISCONTINUITIES MOBILITTYV2%20ks%20mh%20eds final. pdf (last visited on:


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The setting for the interviews was the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference organised by the EU Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technology studies (IPTS) in Seville in October 2008.

on 16 17 october 2008. Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.

A paper by Calof and Smith at the 2008 International Seville FTA Conference 3 concludes‘‘methodology,

and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,

The focus of two sessions of the 2008 FTA Conference on security and sustainability may be a useful first move in this direction.

and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA

and in supporting the linkage between the analysis of the interviews with the overall results of the 2008 FTA Conference.

Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference, Seville, October, 2008, accessible at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:

impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.

8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.

9 2008 FTA Conclusions written by the Conference's Scientific Committee available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/conclusions. html. 10 UK Foresight programme, Flood and Coastal Defence, 2004, http://www. foresight. gov


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see Scapolo and Porter (2008) for an overview). In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,

multidisciplinary coordination but also on a strong action orientation by supporting actors in actively shaping the future.

and scientific debate (see for example Renn 2008) for a long time. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.

Kleindorfer (2008, p. 7) distinguishes between‘‘epistemic risks, ''which arise from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate model

Scenarios are defined by many authors as a coherent illustration of possible future situations together with pathways that might lead to these situations (Kosow and Gaßner 2008.

A positive example for a careful application and integration of results of different FTA METHODS is the development of the European commissions (Commission of the European communities, 2008)‘‘Action Plan for the deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems''(ITS.

dealing with problem-oriented transdisciplinary research (see for Hessels and van Lente, 2008 for a critical review) in greater depth.

Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses.

Commission of the European communities (2008), Action Plan for the Deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems in Europe.

COM (2008) 886 Final 16 december, Commission of the European communities, Brussels. DLR and KIT (2010), OPTIC Deliverable 2:

Hessels, L. K. and van Lente, H. 2008),‘Rethinking knowledge production: a literature review and a research agenda'',Research policy, Vol. 37, pp. 740-60.

Kleindorfer, P. R. 2008),‘Reflections on the decision making under uncertainties'',Faculty and Research Working Paper, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, available at:

PAGE 292 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Kosow, H. and Gaßner, R. 2008),‘Methods of future and scenario analysis:

Renn, O. 2008), Risk governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World, Earthscan, London. Renn, O.,Webler, T. and Wiedemann, P. Eds)( 1995), Fairness and Competence in Citizen Participation:

Scapolo, F. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘New methodological developments in FTA'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses:


ART48.pdf

2008) and Miller (2011. In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.

has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.

I. 2008), The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 3-23.

Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London.


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In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.

The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.

I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,

designing the first questionnaire Defining the expert group involved in the futures workshops together with the Prime minister's Office's scenario team 1st Delphi round October 2008 Delphi:

which climate and energy policy should focus Futures workshop October 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:

online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Testing and specifying the development paths constructed in the first futures workshop:

four distinctive scenarios, are constructed Futures workshop November 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Analysing and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:

four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.

both passenger and freight traffic increased Energy consumption Consumption halved from 2008 level. Dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and elastic price system the main reasons behind decreased consumption Decreased by 14 from 2008 level.

Transportation and buildings require significantly less energy than in 2008 Decreased by 1/3 from 2008 level.

New houses and buildings in rural areas either passive or plus-energy houses and/or relying on renewables At the 2008 level

or slightly higher Energy production All energy produced with renewable sources 50 per cent renewable, 50 per cent nuclear energy (use of nuclear power has increased slightly from 2008) 75 per cent renewable,

rest with nuclear energy Share of renewables less than 50 per cent, use of nuclear energy has increased clearly,

Statistics Finland (2009),‘Final energy consumption by sector 2008'',available at: www. stat. fi/til/ehkh/2008/04/ehkh 2008 04 2009-03-24 kuv 017 en. html (accessed 20 december 2011.


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As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''

and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.

and shape technological futures (Rader and Porter, 2008). In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,

''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.

Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.

2008). ) Despite these important developments and recommendations, little has been said about the interlinkages between Law and FTA.

and visions will be very much the same as today's''(Rader and Porter, 2008). Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.

As Staton (2008) argues: The future is the site of conflicting and competing discourses and ideologies,

legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).

and foresight, see Rader and Porter (2008). For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science

2008). ) 5. Although not referring specifically to Law, but to the broader term of regulatory policies, it is important to mention the paper of Knut Blind:

as noted by Johnston (2008)‘‘served to inform Congressional interests as they considered legislative policy options''.

Recurring again to Johnston's (2008) observations, ‘‘t he studies for the STOA panel of the European parliament have served to pinpoint critical aspects of technologies and their application

but has moved increasingly towards providing knowledge suitable for actively shaping technology'',in Rader and Porter (2008).

2008). ) 12. The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)

processes and practice, see Ratcliffe (2008). 17. For more information on the Compstat, see Delorenzi et al.

see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011. 19. For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,

see Staton (2008); and Tuomi (2011. Regarding the latter paper, Tuomi reconfirms the thesis of the unpredictability of the future,

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 349 References Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Revisiting foresight rationales:

Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:

Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds)( 2008), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4

Johnston, R. 2008),‘Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:

Rader, M. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R

Ratcliffe, J. 2008), Intelligence-led Policing, Willan, Cullompton. Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.

Staton, M. 2008),‘Monstrous foresight'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:

Wright, D.,Gutwirth, S.,Friedewald, M.,Vildjiounaite, E. and Punie, Y. Eds)( 2008), Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence, Springer, Dordrecht.


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