in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.
Slaughter, R. A. 2008. Integral futures methodologies. Futures 40, no. 2: 103 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014
where the‘objects'of the world provide the ultimate foundation for analysis (Hiltunen 2008). Here Nishida's (1987) analysis of the problems of objectificcation underlying the more recent work of Shimitzu and Nonaka (Nonaka, Toyama,
and Hirata 2008), still represents the state of the art. Although ontological expansion makes future an unpredictable place,
In recent years, both Friedhelm Hillebrand and Matti Makkonen have been described as the‘inventors'of SMS (Wallén 2008;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 750 I. Tuomi Hiltunen, E. 2008.
and T. Hirata. 2008. Managing flow: A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke:
Wallén, M. 2008. Mannen som uppfann sms: et. Dagens Industri, May 11. http://di. se/Artiklar/2008/5/11/41905/Mannensoomuppfann-sms-et/Whitehead, A n. 1978.
and sometimes interlocking, role of ignorance (Roberts and Armitage 2008; Roberts 2012) and uncertainty in underpinning quantitative and qualitative thought in FTA.
's matrix is a subset of a much larger set (Popper 2008. Consequently, it enables judgements to be made on the mix of methods to be used.
Popper, R. 2008. How are selected foresight methods. Foresight 10, no. 6: 62 89. Popper, Sir K. 1957.
and J. Armitage. 2008. The ignorance economy. Prometheus 26, no. 4: December, 335 54. Roberts, J. 2012.
Harper et al. 2008; Eerola and Miles 2011. Schoen et al. 2011,235) give the following definition: Foresight can be characterized as a systemic instrument aiming at enhanced capabilities in innovation systems and their parts.
and help to implement the policy (Harper et al. 2008). The special issue of Technology analysis & Strategic management in 2008 provides a good overview of these intended benefits.
In their review of theories and practices of foresight in Europe, Da Costa et al. 2008) list six,
what they call, ‘functions'of foresight for policy-making, see Table 1. Others cluster the intended benefits of foresight into three different objectives (Könnölä, Brummeer and Salo 2007;
2008). ) Table 2. Foresight objectives in relation to the arenas of governance. Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
Rollwagen, Hofmann, and Schneider 2008. This is the domain of strategic decision-making. Business studies have developed a set of techniques to assess the future for strategic decisionmakkin (Kappel 2001;
Roelofsen et al. 2008. For foresight exercises, it is relevant to consider that the constructivist perspective acknowledges that others are in the same situation as those who judge the expectations (Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2011.
but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).
and F. Scapolo. 2008. The impact of foresight on policy-making: Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87.
and R. Johnston. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Havas, A. 2003.
and H. van Lente. 2008. Where are the politics. Perspectives on democracy and technology. Science, Technology and Human Values 3, no. 5: 559 81.
and J. F. G. Bunders. 2008. Exploring the future of ecological genomics: Integrating CTA with vision assessment.
and S. Schneider. 2008. Improving the business impact of foresight. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 337 49.
Roveda and Vecchiato 2008. The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:
and information technology have been regularly applying foresight techniques (Daheim and Uerz 2008; Reger 2001; Rollwagen, Hofmann, and*Email:
://www. tandfonline. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 784 R. Vecchiato Schneider 2008;
Cuhls and Johnston 2008. But there are many others: for example, Delphi, relevance trees, trend-impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems dynamics,
Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;
Da Costa et al. 2008. We argue that boundary uncertainty is something different from state, effect,
and R. Johnston. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Christensen, C. M. 1997.
and R. Johnston. 2008. Corporate foresight. In Future-oriented technology analysis, strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
and F. Scapolo. 2008. The impact of foresight on policy-making: Insight from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87.
and G. Uerz. 2008. Corporate foresight in Europe: From trend based logics to open foresight.
and S. Schneider. 2008. Improving the business impact of foresight. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 337 49.
and R. Vecchiato. 2008. Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts.
which social relations and the communication of insights and knowledge (Georghiou et al. 2008) are critical for successful outcomes.
which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008). This is a key aspect for policy interventtion Ultimately,
eds. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy. Heidelberg: Springer. Cagnin, C, . and T. Könnölä. Forthcoming.
and R. Popper R.,eds. 2008. The handbook of technology foresight. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 814 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Gertler, M. S,
and micro-level developments (see Blackwell et al. 2008). This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
Heracleous and Jacobs 2008; Whittington and Cailluet 2008. Therefoore the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping should not be viewed as a‘pure'foresight methodology,
but more as a hybrid of foresight and organisational strategy crafting. Roadmapping can be used in strategy processes, for example, in the following ways (Figure 2:
and N. Crilly. 2008. Strategy roadmaps: New forms, new practices. In Diagrams 2008, ed. G. Stapleton, J. Howse and J. Lee, 127 40.
Berlin: Springer-verlag. Engeström, Y. 2001. Expansive learning at work: Toward an activity theoretical reconceptualization. Journal of Education and Work 14, no. 1: 133 56.
and C. D. Jacobs. 2008. Crafting strategy: The role of embodied metaphors. Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 309 25.
and Cailluet, L. 2008. The crafts of strategy. Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 241 47.
2008). ) The analytical components that we address should be considered in the context of performing FTA (Porter 2010)
and applying it to serve technology policy or management ends (Scapolo, Porter, and Rader 2008). Recently, Robinson (Robinson et al. 2011) has introduced the approach of‘FIP'.
and Cunninngha 2005) and‘multipath mapping'(Robinson and Propp 2008). It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
Robinson and Propp 2008. Classical technology forecasting methods were devised to address incrementally advancing technological systems. These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects.
Liu, Tang, and Zhu 2008; O'Shea, Chugh, and Allen 2008. Early identification of likely innovations can help discern opportunities, foster energy transitions,
and foresee societal impacts beneficial, as well as undesirable while the course of technology development remains more malleable (Collingridge 1980;
After 2008, the Factiva records suddenly climb quicker than the activity in the other databases does.
Table 1 partitions publication and citation shares of these 11 top institutions for (1) the period extending through 2008 and (2) that since then (2009 2011, with 2011 incomplete.
Cites share Cites share Pubs share Pubs share through 2008 2009 onwards through 2008 2009 onwards(%)CAS 6. 0 19.9 19.5 25.3 Swiss Federal Institute of technology (EPFL) 49.3
and demonstrated by Robinson and Propp (2008). Their expert workshops involve a wider spectrum of experts and stakeholders for a more extended interaction (e g. full day.
and R. Barré, eds. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an innovation economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-verlag. Chesbrough, H. W. 2006.
and X. Zhu. 2008. Transferring technology across borders: Institutional effects in Chinese context. The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 619 30.
and T. J. Allen. 2008. Determinants and consequences of university spinoff activity: A conceptual framework. The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 653 66.
and T. Propp. 2008. Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 517 38.
and M. Rader. 2008. Introduction to special issues: Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision making. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 457 61.
2008). ) Meta-analysis on foresight methods shows the trends of combination (Popper, 2008: B scenario is used often with literature review, expert panel,
and trend extrapolation/megatrends; B the Delphi method is used often with literature review, expert panel, and brainstorming;
2008). ) According to the meta-analysis mentioned above, around 20-39 percent of Delphi exercises are combined with scenario.
The exercise was conducted by the National Institute of Science and Technology policy from 2008 to 2010.
Cuhls, K.,Bode, O.,Ganz, W. andwanke, P. 2008‘‘‘‘The BMBF Foresight process'',paper presented at the 3rd International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, October 16-17, Seville.
Kanama, D.,Kondo, A. and Yokoo, Y. 2008),‘Development of technology foresight: integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''''Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62-89.
Specifically with respect to research policy development in Germany, Meister and Oldenburg (2008) argues that both foresight and subsequent transfer activities have to be constructed as dialogue processes involving all relevant stakeholders.
Meister, H. and Oldenburg, F. 2008),‘Foresight und Innovation: Zukunfts denken Heute gestalten'',Beteiligung ein Programm fu r Wirtschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 119-38.
which emphasised that it needed to address a series of Grand challenges (European commission DG Research, 2008,
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and was held again in 2006 and 2008. These conferences, organized by IPTS, aimed to bring together academics,
For instance, in 2008 one of the conclusions noted the‘‘.‘‘constant tension between foresight and FTA, with conflicting views on which is a subset of the other.''
and the Danish research 2015 process, from 2008, which focus on priority settings for strategic research. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
and the Research2015 process, from 2008. In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.
The catalogue that resulted from Research2015 was presented in May 2008. The task of coining out the priorities that was identified in the catalogue was given to the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI.
During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008 approximately half of the 21 themes were received prioritised
During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008, approximately DKK 1 bn (ca. EUR 134 million) was allocated to strategic research in the two year period of 2009 and 2010.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.5 E. Eriksson, K. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
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Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:
Foresight 10 (6)( 2008) 62 89.27 L. Togeby, J. G. Andersen, P m. Christiansen, T b. Jørgensen, Power and Democracy in Denmark.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij
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Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
and the next conference is scheduled for the 16 17 october 2008 in Seville. This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Fabiana Scapolo: She works at the European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 71 87.5 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
a literature review, ejov Special issue on Living Labs 10 (2008. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 49
a content analysis of 26 years of strategic management research, International Journal of Management Reviews 10 (2008) 1 23.17 V. C. Prieto, M m.
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering, 2008. S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 61
and potential new products and services within WINN Singular activity 1. 4 Series of future workshops Determined relevant societal developments and innovation needs that the activities originating from WINN give rise to Project 5 In 2008
In 2008, the European parliament and Council established the EIT as an independent agency in the EU. In the summer of 2009,
P. van der Duin, The evolution of innovation management towards contextual innovation, European Journal of Innovation Management 11 (2008) 522 538.16 P. van der Duin, R
This special section is selected based on papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain,
The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
or the type of knowledge source (expertise-interaction/creativityeviddence (Eerola and Miles, 2008; Popper, 2008;
Saritas, 2006. Scapolo and Porter (2008) propose 13 families grouping more than 50 FTA METHODS, building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,
as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008. Methods and tools contributing to FTA.
Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Popper, R 2008. Foresight methodology. In The Handbook of Technology foresight: Concepts and Practices, L Georghiou, J C Harper, M Keenan,
Rader, M and A Porter 2008. Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types. In Future-Oriented Technology Analysiis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Scapolo, F and A l Porter 2008. New methodological developmeent in FTA. In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strateegi Intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
2008). ) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
2008). ) To facilitate the comparison, some relabelling of the categories that were used was necessary (see Table 1). From these categories13 we derived the followwin set of main categories:
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
for further development of the joint horizon scan has been developed within the Forsociety Netwoor (van Rij, 2008. This proposal suggests developpin a network of countries
Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation 2008. RESEARCH2015 A Basis for Prioritisation of strategic Reseaarch Available from<http://en. fi. dk/publications/publications-2008/research2015-a-basis-for-prioritisation-ofstrattegicres/research2015-net. pdf
>,last accessed 1 june 2009. Defense Science and Technology agency Singapore 2009. Horizonsscan available at<http://www. dsta. gov. sg/index. php/943-DSTA-Horizons-2009>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Available from<http://www. rand. org/pubs/rand europe/2008/RE98004. 1. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Available from<http://www. communities. gov. uk/pub/326/Allourfuturestechni calannexandappendices id1165326. pdf>,last accessed 1 Octoobe 2008.
Schwarz, J O 2008. Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures, 40 (3), 237 246.
Available from<http://www. techforesight. ca/Publications/Whatbroadsecuritychallenges Maycanadaface. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009. van Rij, V 2008.
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