Synopsis: Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2008:


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\3. Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries.pdf

When commissioning an FTA of the creative content sector in 2007 2008 the European commission was expecctin

2008). ) Moreover, rather than specifying all stages of the methodology in full detaai at the outset,

2008): ) music recording and publishing, film production, broadcasting (radio and TV), computer games, publisshin (newspapers and books) and cultural spaces (museums and libraries)( see Figure 1). This looks actually like a heterogeneous bundle of activities, with very different historical roots.

2008). ) This methodology consists of five main building blocks as shown in Figure 2: a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.

2008) Some key technology trends include: new business models with transformation of creative content goods into services;

2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.

Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisionmakking held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. References Aho Expert Group 2006.

Eriksson, E A and K M Weber 2008: Adaptive foresight. Navigatiin the complex landscape of policy strategies.

Mateos-García, J, A Geuna, A w E Steinmueller et al. 2008. The Future Evolution of the Creative Content Industries:


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\4. Critical success factors for government-led foresight.pdf

Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.

Finnsight 2015 (encompassing a mix of Nokia plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES and SITRA) and Helsinki University of Technologgy in Finland UK Foresight, third phase 2004 2008;

growing or decreasing in 2007 2008? Is there a central foresight web page? are included web links? Is there a foresight support agency (or departmeent in your government?

was terminated in 2008. Sponsors: Governments (both national and subnatiional and government agencies were the main sponsors of foresight exercises accounting for 95%of the sample.

At an operational level, the nascent Canadian foresiigh initiative (2002 2008) was able to produce some excellent projects with strong insights,

Over the years the program went through numerous changes, in the host organization (from National Reseaarc Council 2002 2004, to Privy council office 2005 2006, to Industry Canada 2007 2008.

Canada's foresight progrram based in the National science Advisor's (NSA) Office was disbanded in March 2008

somewhat, but little capacity existed in Canada for academic foresight in 2005 2008 Canada has limited only a number of foresight focused academics,

only two out of eight factors were clearly evident 2008 Assessment: generally a failure (because) according to the two critical criteria:


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\5. Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-Pacific.pdf

The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF, 2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc

and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico. Elsewhere the report was disseminated throughout the Asia-pacific region

APEC Center for Technology foresight, 2008. Roadmapping Converging technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseasses Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight.

Available at<http://www. who. int/immunization monitoring/burden/en/>,last accessse August 2008


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\6. User-driven innovation.pdf

Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010051-11 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 51 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages

and content on the one hand (Yovanof and Hazapis, 2008) and hyper-competition and increased market liberalization on the other,

Yovanof and Hazapis, 2008. In this changed context, many new products fail to‘cross the chasm'between the adoption segmeent that include innovators and some early adopteer on the one hand and the mass market on the other (Moore, 2002;

Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed,

) Følstad (2008) situates the rise of living labs in this context of user-driven innovation. Living labs are innovation environments that provide full-scale test-bed possibilities for inventing, prototyping,

interaactiv testing and marketing of (new) mobile technology applications (Schumacher and Niitamo, 2008; Følstad, 2008. They can be seen as humancenntri systemic innovation instruments,

encouragiin the interaction between all stakeholders in the innovation process and facilitating the involvement of users as co-creators (Ballon et al. 2007).

As discussse by Warnke and Heimeriks (2008: 74), systemmi innovation instruments are intended: to provide platforms for learning

2008; Følstad, 2008. For example, in the early development stages it is often difficult to transcend users'limited powers of imagination:

without having a fully developed ICT device at their disposal, users do not have a clear-cut idea of

2008). ) Since the results from earlier user research were Table 3. 13 clusters and corresponding Cronbach's alpha values Application cluster Cronbach's alpha Food and shopping help 0. 871 Tourist information 0. 775 Mobile social contact

2008), this paper limits itself to a discussion of the research process and the way the abovementioned challenges were tackled.

Berte, K, K De Moor, L De Marez, W Joseph, T Deryckere and L Martens 2008.

Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.

Deryckere T, W Joseph, L Martens, L De Marez, K De Moor et al. 2008. A software tool to relate technical performance to user experience in a mobile context.

Proceedings of the 2008 Internatiiona Symposium on a World of Wireless Mobile and Multimmedi Networks, held 23 26 june 2008, Newport Beach, CA, USA.

Feurstein, K, A Hesmer, K A Hribernik, K-D Thoben, J Schumacher 2008. Living Labs:

A New development Strategy. In European Living Labs: A new approach for human centric regional innovation, J Schumacher and V-p Niitamo (eds.

Følstad, A 2008. Towards a living lab for the development of online community services. The Electronic Journal for Virtual Organizations and Networks, 10,47 58.

Available at<http://www. norden. org/pub/velfaerd/naering/sk/TN2006522. pdf>,last accessed Februuar 2008.

2008. European Living Labs. A New approach for Human Centric Regional Innovatiion WVB, Berlin. Sleeswijk Visser, F, R van der Lugt and P J Stappers 2007.

Warnke, P and G Heimeriks 2008. In Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnston, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds.

Yovanof, G S and G N Hazapis 2008. Disruptive technologies, services, or business models? Wireless Personal Communicatioons 45 (4), 569 583


Science.PublicPolicyVol37\7. Impact of Swiss technology policy on firm innovation performance.pdf

Nora Sydow has been at the Economic Research Departmeen of Credit suisse since 2008. Before this appointment she was a researcher at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich and responsible for the KOF Enterprise Panel.

technology policy see OECD (2006b) and European commission (2008. Lepori (2006) gives a longteer analysis of public research policy primarily with respect to universities and public research organizations.

European commission 2008. Annual innovation policy trends and appraisal report: Switzerland 2007 2008 European trend chart on innovation.

Brussels: European commission. Feller, I 2007. Mapping the frontiers of evaluation of public-sector R&d programmes. Science and Public policy, 34 (10), 681 690.

Griessen, T and D Braun 2008. The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies in Switzerland.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\10. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study.pdf

and strengths (Coates, cited by Miles et al. 2008). Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.

Firstly, and most important, stakeholders must be involved in the exercise from the very beginning (Eriksson and Weber 2008.

2007) and Popper (2008. These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.

Eriksson, E. A. and Weber, K. M. 2008)‘ Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 462 82.

Miles, I.,Harper, J. C.,Georgiou, L.,Keenan, M. and Popper, R. 2008)‘ The many faces of foresight'.

Popper, R. 2008)‘ Foresight methodology'.'In: Georgiou, L.,Harper, J. C.,Keenan, M.,Miles, I. and Popper, R. eds) The Handbook of Technology foresight:


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\11. Head in the clouds and feet on the ground.pdf

Mu and Qu 2008; Simon and Goldman 1989; Saich 1989; Suttmeier 1980; Wan 2008; Wang 1993), selected sectors and actors (Jakobson 2007;

Zhang et al. 2009) or assessment of the state of its STI capabilities (D'Costa and Parayil 2009;

Hu and Mathews 2008; Jakobson 2007; Lv 2007; OECD 2008; Zhou and Leydesdorff 2006. Surprisingly little attention has been paid,

however, to how decisions are taken and priorities set in Chinese S&t policy (see, however, the primarily quantitative policy analysis in Liu et al.

and which of these models may be suited best to fulfill the goal of making China a global scientific superpoowe (see also Hao 2008).

Greenhalgh 2008. Thus, China can be categorized clearly as a top-down and centralized planning system, which focuses on large-scale accomplishments and numerical accomplishments, with a preference for grandiose plans.

'This indicates that China is not moving towards a substitution of centralized reseaarc governance with a fully fledged pluralist system without strong coordinating mechanisms a`la Russia after the Soviet period (Graham and Dezhina 2008.

Braun 2008 on Europe; Block and Keller 2011 on the USA. Instead, China seems to be forging its own way with an evolving mixture of planning, decentralization and deliberation. 1. 1 Trends in setting priorities Explicit models for science policy priority-setting devellope late and with great tensions.

Braun 2008. 1. 2 Analytical assumptions On the basis of this discussion, we argue that research priority-setting may take the following (not mutually exclussive directions:

and the firm-centered phase (OECD 2008)( see Fig. 1). The 1978 National science Conference coincided with the launch of the economic reform

OECD (2008: 72). 260. M. Benner et al. declared that S&t were‘the productive force'rather than an ideological category,

Wen 2008. 2. 2 Governance of the S&t system An important element characterizing the governance of China's S&t system throughout the phases identified before is the strong involvement of China's top leaders in S&t decision-making.

OECD (2008) and MOST website (see Note 2). 262. M. Benner et al. 3. Setting priorities:

2009 China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology Data from 2008. Note: In order to simplify, some programs have been grouped into one‘bubble'.

Table 3. Allocations for S&t by Central Government in main S&t programs (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

China Science and Technology indicators (2008) and from<http://www. sts. org. cn>accessed 20 may 2011.264.

the Case 973 Program (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 589 686 800 897 983

‘Over 10 billion Yuan to be invested in 211 Project',26 march 2008). 6 3. 4 Diffusion The‘Torch'and‘Spark'Programs are clear-cut examples of diffusion-oriented measures,

amounting to 6%of the total number of universities in 2008 (People's Daily, ‘Over 10 billion Yuan to be invested in 211 Project'26 march 2008).

7 Similarly, the purpose of the 985 Program, established in 1998, is to strengthen China's higher education system by funding around 40 universities out of a total of around 2, 000 regular institutions of higher education in China (Marginson 2006).

Notes 1. For more information about programs, see OECD (2008: Chap. 11). 2. For more information on the 863 and 973 Programs,

See OECD (2008: 459). 4. Some suggestions about the reform of the national S&t programs management (guanyu guojia keji jihua guangli gaige de ruogan yijian),<www. most. gov

U s. Government Technology policies, 1969 2008. Boulder, CO: Paradigm. Braun, D. 2008)‘ Organising the political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies',Science and Public policy, 35: 227 39.

Cantner, U. and Pyke, A. 2000)‘ Classifying technology policy from an evolutionary perspective',Research policy, 30: 759 75.

2008), p. 54. Beijing: Scientific and Technical Documents Publishing house. China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology.

I. 2008) Science in the New Russia. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press. Greenhalgh, S. 2008) Just One Child, Science and Policy.

Deng's China Berkeley: University of California Press. Gu, S. and Lundvall, B.-A°.(2006)‘ China's innovation system and the move towards harmonious growth and endogenous innovation'.

Research priority setting in China. 269 Hao, X. 2008)‘ Science in China: You say you want a revolutioon'Science, 322/5902: 664 6. Hu, M.-C. and Mathews, J. A. 2008)‘ China's national innovatiiv capacity',Research policy, 37: 1465 79.

Jakobson, L.,(ed.),2007) Innovation with Chinese Characteristics: High-tech Research in China. New york: Palgrave Macmillan.

Mu, R. and Qu, W. 2008)‘ The development of science and technology in China: A comparison with India and the United states',Technology in Society, 30: 319 29.

Paris..(2008) OECD‘Reviews of Innovation policy: China',Synthesis Report. OECD: Paris. Pielke, R. 2007) The Honest Broker.

Wan, G.,(ed.),2008) The 30 Years of China's Science and Technology Reform and Open-door policy.

Wen, J. 2008)‘ Science and China's modernization',Science, 322/5902: 649. White, S.,Gao, J. and Zhang, W. 2005)‘ Financing new ventures in China:


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\12. National, sectoral and technological innovation systems.pdf

Bergek et al. 2008. The configuration of the differeen levels of innovation systems has been discussed to a certain extent (Markard and Truffer 2008.

However, until now the configuration has not been defined clearly and deliberately probed. Consequently, this paper discusses the configuration of innovation systems at three levels:

Edquist and Hommen 2008. From Freeman's perspective (1987) research, technology development and innovation (RTDI) policies extensively shape the national system of innovation.

2008) have specified only that a technological system may be a sub-system of a sectoral innovation system or may cut across several sectoral innovation systems.

Markard and Truffer (2008) made one of the first attempts to concretely show the configuration of the three innovation systems within one diagram.

Based on Markard and Truffer's diagram (Markard and Truffer 2008), we redraw the relationships of the three innovaatio systems (see Fig. 2)

Boschert and Gill 2005), only a few papers discuss the develoopmen of biotechnology (both traditional and modern) in Taiwan (Dodgson et al. 2008;

Markard and Truffer (2008. Figure 2. Relationship of national, technological and sectoral innovation systems and NSTIS.

References Bergek, A.,Jacobsson, S.,Carlsson, B.,Lindmark, S. and Rickne, A. 2008)‘ Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems:

Dodgson, M.,Mathews, J.,Kastelle, T. and Hu, M.-C. 2008)‘ The evolving nature of Taiwan's national innovation systems:

Edquist, C. and Hommen, L.,eds,(2008) Small Country Innovation systems: Globalization, Change and Policy in Asia and Europe.

Markard, J. and Truffer, B. 2008)‘ Technological innovattio systems and the multilevel perspective: Towards an integrated framework',Research policy, 37: 596 615.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\2. Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles.pdf

and largely oriented towards supporting the military industrial complex (Gassler et al. 2008). The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturalll lend themselves to a global outlook,

Bergek et al. 2008) have recommended the functions of innovation system as an alternative point of analytical departure. 1 Such functional analysis,

Bergek et al. 2008; Edquist 2008; Hekkert et al. 2007; Jacobsson and Bergek 2006; van Lente 1993;

von Hippel 2005; Woolthius et al. 2005), the following six‘high-level'functions of innovation systems can be identified:.

are intrinsic to FTA (Cagnin et al. 2008). At the same time, appropriate constellations of policy interventions will vary, depending on specific challenges,

otherwise have been the case (Cagnin et al. 2008). This role most closely corresponds to the innovation functions of knowledge diffusion, mobilisaatio of resources,

Adapted from Barre'and Keenan (2008) and Cagnin et al. 2011). ) 146. C. Cagnin et al. 6. Implications for European collaborative programmes This section examines some of the recent STI policy initiatiive of the EU that seek to better orient policy agendas towards grand challenges

2008) make clear that:..using the notion of an‘overall function'does not imply that all actors in a particular system exist for the purpose of serving that function

Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008)‘ Revisiting foresight rationalles What lessons from the social sciences and humanities?'.

Bergek, A.,Jacobsson, S.,Carlsson, B.,Lindmark, S. and Rickne, A. 2008)‘ Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems:

Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R.,eds,(2008) Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy.

Edquist, C. 2008)‘ Design of innovation policy through diagnossti analysis: Identification of systemic problems (or failures)',CIRCLE Electronic Working Paper Series 2008/06.

2010)‘ Joint programming in research 2008 2010 and beyond',Report of the High level Group on Joint Programming to the Council, November 2010.

Mcgraw-hill. Gassler, H.,Polt, W. and Rammer, C. 2008)‘ Priority setting in technology policy historical developments and recent trends'.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\3. Coping with a fast-changing world.pdf

implement and monitor joint action at international level (Amanatidou 2008; Brummer et al. 2008. Increased mobility, the instantaneoou impact of events through social media and the socioculttura interconnections linking Europe to the rest of Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 153 165 doi:

10.1093/scipol/scs012 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.

The categories of grand challenges identified by theeuropean Research area (ERA) Rationales Expert Group (European commission 2008) provide one typology of transformations.

but this development is currently being reconsidered in several firms (Daheim and Uerz 2008. This has led to a renewed interest in the institutionaalisatio of forward-looking intelligence,

Amanatidou, E. 2008)‘ Joint foresight':'towards a mechanism for joint programming in Europe? Foresight, 10: 103 17.

Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets: Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.

Daheim, C. and Uerz, G. 2008)‘ Corporate foresight in Europe: From trend based logics to open foresight',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 20: 321 36.

2008)‘ Challenging Europe's Research Rationales for the European research area (ERA)',Report of the ERA Expert Group, EUR 23326 EN.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\4. Orienting international science cooperation to meet global ‘grand challenges’.pdf

Regional initiatives, particularly the development of a transnational European research area, are having a signifiican effect on international science cooperation (European commission 2008.

Following a foresight design framework outlined by Keenan and Miles (2008 these can be grouped as follows:.

and for improving organisatioona agility vis-a vis future unpredictable change (Miles et al. 2008). These are all qualities that that can benefit international science cooperation as it seeks to address many of the grand challenges of our time.

2008)‘ Opening to the World: International Cooperation in Science and Technology',report of the ERA Expert Group 5, Directorate-General for Research, EUR 23325 EN.

I. 2008)‘ Scoping and planning foresigght'In: Georghiou, L.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Keenan, M.,Miles,

Miles, I.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Georghiou, L.,Keenan, M. and Popper, R. 2008)‘ The many faces of foresight'.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\5. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking.pdf

In recent years, roadmapping has been applied increasingly as an instrument of strategy-making (Blackwell et al. 2008.

2008: 369) aptly capture the functions of foresiigh in the context of policy design. The functions of foresiigh are:.

This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallized strategy maps that open up a simultaneous perspective on both the macro-level currents and on the corresponding micro-level developments (Blackwell et al. 2008.

This idea links the strategy roadmapping to organization and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (Whittington and Cailluet 2008;

Heracleous and Jacobs 2008. IPRM can be compared to a transition management (TM) framework. TM was developed in The netherlands in the early 2000s (e g.

and Crilly, N. 2008)‘ Strategy roadmaps: new forms, new practices'.'In: Stapleton, G.,Howse, J. and Lee, J. eds) Diagrams 2008, pp. 127 40.

Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer. Carlsson, B. and Stankiewicz, R. 1991)‘ On the nature, function, and composition of technological systems',Journal of Evolutionary economics, 1: 93 118.

Da Costa, O.,Warnke, P.,Cagnin, C. and Scapolo, F. 2008)‘ The impact of foresight on policy-making:

Heracleous, L. and Jacobs, C. D. 2008)‘ Crafting strategy: The role of embodied metaphors',Long Range Planning, 41: 309 25.

Whittington, R. and Cailluet, L. 2008)‘ The crafts of strategy',Long Range Planning, 41: 241 7. 190.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\6. Embedding foresight in transnational research programming.pdf

monitored and evaluated at national level (European commission 2008. Another driver for more collaboration is the increasing pressure in Europe1 and other parts of the world2 for research and innovation to both support competitiveness3 and offer solutions to global and local societal challenges.

(and three observers) of 19 EU Member States and Associated Countries 2008 11 Develop a durable focused network22 of national research funders in Member and Associated States of EU in order to share information,

one of the recent and most advanced efforts to move forward with transnational research programming has been Joint Programming (JP) in Research (European commission 2008),

For an analysis of the link between innovation strategies and economic performance, see Dahlman (2008. 4. The four steps used by ERA NET (European research area-NET) are:.

2008). ) 21. EMIDA ERA NET stands for‘Coordination of European research on emerging and major infectious diseases of livestock'.

2008). ) 25. Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process. 26. The assessment criteria for researcher's were:

Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets: Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.

Dahlman, C. 2008)‘ Innovation strategies of three of the BRICS: Brazil, India and China: What can we learn from three different approaches?'

2009)‘ Description of Work, Grant Agreement for Co-ordination and Support Actions (Coordinating) EMIDA, Annex 1, approved 31 january 2008 and updated 28 october 2009 (FP7 Theme

2008)‘ Summary of the Impact assessment',Commission Staff Working Document. Accompanying document to the Towards Joint Programming.

Working together to tackle common challenges more effectively, 15/07/2008, SEC (2008) 2282. Brussels: European commission..(

Meier zu Ko cker, G.,Hein, D. and Chinalski, M. 2008)‘ German Polish network-based R&d co-operation:


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\7. On concepts and methods in horizon scanning.pdf

It comes close to the concept of future narratives as used by Van der Steen (2008) in his political discourse analysis. Van der Steen (2008) sees future narratives as‘stories about what the future,

Many of the sophisticated community annotation systems that are used currently in biology are based on the wiki concept (Mons et al. 2008;

Stein 2008. In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.

2008)‘ Calling on a million minds for community annotattio in Wikiproteins',Genome Biology, 9: 5. Morrison, J. L. 1992)‘ Environmental scanning'.

Stein, L. D. 2008)‘ Towards a cyberinfrastructure for the biological sciences: progress, visions and challenges',Nature Reviews Genetics, 9: 678 88.

Van der Steen, M. 2008)‘ Ageing or silvering? Political debate about ageing in The netherlands',Science and Public policy, 35: 575 83.


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\8. Facing the future - Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning.pdf

what future-relevant observations will be submitted (Hiltunen 2008; Mendonc¸a et al. 2004. Especially in the case of weak signals and wild cards, sense-making builds on the scanners'creative and heuristic capabilities to detect meaningful observations in the presence of scattered or no historical evidence (Dervin 1998.

and other stakeholders in creative networking that facilitates the implementation of later action plans (Brummer et al. 2008;

Facing the future In 2008 9, the BEPA of the EC organized a series of foresiigh activities (European communities 2009;

These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners

According to the OECD (2008), 2. 8 billion, or 44%,of the world's population lives in areas of high water stress.

2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).

Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets: Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.

Hiltunen, E. 2008)‘ The future sign and its three dimensions',Futures, 40: 247 60. Ko nno la, T. and Unruh, G. C. 2007)‘ Really changing the course:

OECD. 2008) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Paris: OECD. Rossel, P. 2011)‘ Beyond the obvious:


Science.PublicPolicyVol39\9. Fraunhofer future markets.pdf

This process is repeated every three years (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In order to differentiate from the rather technologydriive processes of the past,

for a brief introduction see Cuhls 2008. These reports served as a basis for the challenges for the Fraunhofer Society (see below.

The Millennium Development Goals as a focus for action (see also Cuhls 2008 and citations there are listed in Table 1. These targets

These developments were addressed directly in the Fraunhofer foresight process at that time (Klingner et al. 2008. 2. 1. 5 Fifth example.

One of the approaches is described in Klingner and Behlau (2008. Successful implementation of such processes achieves several goals:

This first approach was followed by a second process in 2008 (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.

so that ultimately 12 future topics were formulated (Klingner and Behlau 2008). Although the processes differed slightly in the methodology used,

'At the end of the 2005 and 2008 FTA PROCESSES, 12 innovation topics, that became 12 Fraunhofer future topics were defined.

Cuhls, K. 2008)‘ Millennium Project 2050',in‘European commission/Directorate General for Research: The European foresight monitoring Network:

Klingner, R. and Behlau, L. 2008)‘ Fraunhofer Future topics: FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.

Kolz, H. and Hadnagy, C. 2012)‘ A regional foresight process to cope with demographic change: Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue.


< Back - Next >


Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011