Synopsis:
Time & dates: Dates: Years: 2013:
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capable of transmitting signals through multiplexed 1000 channels at 100 Gbps over a single optical fibre. 2013 3. 54 4. 00 2. 15 1. 69 3. 12 Widespread
than from their goods sales following the expansion of e-commerce. 2013 2. 53 2. 43 1. 39 2. 57 2. 00 Widespread use at the consumer purchase stage of a cost-plus pricing system
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Community Strategic Guidelines, 2007 2013 44. One of the specific guidelines is to improve the knowledge and innovation for growth.
Community Strategic Guidelines, 2007 2013, COM (2005) 0299, available at: http://www. europa. eu. int/comm/regional policy/sources/docoffic/2007/osc/index en. htm. 581 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
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and can be applied in many setting. 5. 3. 2013 house of cards collapses As ever-increasing complexity of nano,
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The construction of this new quarter will be finished by 2013 with costs exceeding¤600 million.
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2007 2013. T. Ko nno la et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 259 and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
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PAGE 6 jforesight j VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 6-18, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 7 Scenario requires extensive knowledge of the field under investigation,
Figure 1 Overview of the 9th Foresight PAGE 8 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 2. 1 Setting global or national challenges The first step of the exercise
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 9 2. 4 Workshop Workshops were held in eight local regions in Japan,
In this way, all PAGE 10 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 the Delphi topics are given scores by scenario according to their similarity,
Figure 2 The procedure of analysis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 11 4. 2 Overall view Relations between the scenarios
The scenarios and Delphi areas Figure 3 Distribution of relevant topics by scenario theme PAGE 12 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 closely related are grouped together in reference to the results
the group of clusters Figure 4 Overall view of scientific and technological areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 13 related to health and medical care on the right side
bdelphi areas with strong focus PAGE 14 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 all the people living in the society benefit from it.
Figure 5 Relation between directions of future innovation and base technology areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 15 5. 2 Examination of relationship between scenario descriptions
and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 17 Loveridge, D. 1999),‘Foresight and Delphi processes as information sources for scenario planning'',Ideas In progress Paper No. 11, Policy
yokoo@nistep. go. jp PAGE 18 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
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DOI 10.1108/14636681311310114 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 19-28, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 jforesight j
PAGE 20 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 B multi-stakeholder dialogues for governance on an international level, for example in the environmental area;
Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
since they have had already a stake in shaping them PAGE 22 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 be discussed
foresight is more radical than day-to-day activities of Figure 1 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 23 research policy makers,
Hence, step 5 of a PAGE 24 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 strategic dialog might be a survey of earlier national funding activities and a gap analysis between those activities and the potential support
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 25 For the BMBF, a wealth of structured information has been generated that allows formulating a future vision and recommendations for research policy initiatives,
PAGE 26 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 5. 2 Strategic dialogue to generate a joint vision for forward-looking projects Another strategic dialogue was conducted for a so-called‘‘Forward-looking Project''in the framework
Also, they result in the creation of new informal VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 27 networks within the BMBF, between BMBF units and external stakeholders,
frauke. lohr@grolman. com PAGE 28 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART74.pdf
they are understood broadly in terms of DOI 10.1108/14636681311310123 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 29-39, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
It draws on the project outputs VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 31 (interim
6 Opportunities that this presents PAGE 32 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 1. validation of the trends/drivers in national context;
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 33 outcomes from the consultation and the empirical evidence gathered, with an emphasis on connectivity between the external environment and the national issues identified.
''PAGE 34 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 4. 3 An emerging set of grand challenges for Ireland research needs and implications A set of 12 challenges was provided for consideration
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 35 Figure 1 Distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix Table IV Most likely and highest
and engineering and science skills PAGE 36 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The project undertaken provided a national view on grand challenges that had been discussed in other settings.
Some of the major themes frequently cited in this regard VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 37 are climate change
and commitments PAGE 38 jforesight jvol. 15 NO 1 2013 are necessary to develop and sustain a successful innovation system.
mrhisiar@glam. ac. uk VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 39 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART75.pdf
and OPEC (OPEC Secretariat, 2010), have PAGE 40 jforesight j VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 40-53, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 41 2. Methodology The methodology of the paper includes several steps:
PAGE 42 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 This study was based on another foresight study devoted to the identification of national S&t priorities and a corresponding list of critical technologies (Sokolov, 2008b.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels; B data analysis; and B discussion and dissemination of results.
PAGE 44 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 B prevention and liquidation of emergencies related to natural and technogene emergencies;
This index shows the relative importance of each topic according to aggregated expert opinion VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 45 New objectives of the study also demanded adjusting evaluation criteria for the technology groups (accordingly to the FS1 results.
2013 B integrated information systems for evaluating the current state and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 47 As a result of this study, the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks were formulated for each structural component of the natural resources sector.
Figure 2 The overall structure of the study PAGE 48 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The results of both projects have become an important information source for the follow-up FS3 project devoted to innovation
Figure 3 The general scheme of the structure of projects interrelation VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 49 B design of large-scale innovation projects;
Also, suggestions for amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed Update of the list of innovation priorities PAGE 50 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 create an adequate management system for the sector.
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51
PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:
avsokolova@hse. ru VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 53 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
ART76.pdf
or create PAGE 54 jforesight j VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 54-73, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI
where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
Delphi is a subjective-intuitive research method that aims at a consensus PAGE 56 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 on a particular topic among a group of experts,
NO 1 2013 jforesight jpage 57 intellectual property (IP) system that rewards creativity, stimulates innovation
or social network analysis PAGE 58 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 For converting and aggregating to the 35 WIPO technology classifications in Step 6,
Schmoch (2008) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 59 code C08g covering‘‘polymer electrolyte''is identified,
Schmoch (2008) Figure 1 Example for Delphi topic mapping PAGE 60 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 3. Results, impacts and policy options
0 0 China 83 100 0 0 0 0 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 61 source technologies are derived from technologies 1
technology 15 (Biotechnology) to technology 1 Figure 2 Summary result of the mapping in three countries PAGE 62 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Electrical machinery
hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from Japan PAGE 64 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Civil engineering).
Figure 4 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from South korea VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 65 engineering;
jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 energy. The important source technologies comprise technologies 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 24 (Environmental technology) and 35 (Civil engineering.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 67 cells'',Solar and fuel cell power system in practical use,
and Figure 7 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from South korea PAGE 68 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013
technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from China VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 69 technology of solar cells,
this PAGE 70 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 kind of capability gap identification becomes easier.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 71 Griliches, Z. 1990),‘Patent statistics as economic indicators:
PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 73 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
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Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 Corresponding author at: Center for Strategic Studies andmanagement (CGEE), SCNQD 2, Bl.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 3. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches FTA is an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools (technology foresight,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 In more detail, Haegeman et al. 4 depart from the methodological debate that has been a relevant element of the International Seville Conference series on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 more experimental approaches to creating new solutions
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 practice and assist in considering transformations that are going to take us closer to anticipating disruptive innovations and events.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 467 470 (this issue. 4 K. Haegeman, E. Marinelli, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, A. Sokolov, Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397 (this issue. 5 P. De Smedt, K. Borch, T. Fuller, Future scenarios to inspire innovation, Technol.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 432 443 (this issue. 6 M. Weber, A. Havas, D. Schartinger, Exploring the Potential impact of FLA on National Innovation systems.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 398 407 (this issue. 8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 408 418 (this issue. 12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 419 431 (this issue. 13 P. Shaper-Rinkel, The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies:
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 444 452 (this issue. 14 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation, Technol.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 453 466 (this issue. Cristiano Cagnin (Phd) used to work as a scientific officer at JRC-IPTS
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385
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Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: From combination to integration? Karel Haegeman a,, Elisabetta Marinelli b, Fabiana Scapolo c, Andrea Ricci d, Alexander Sokolov e a European commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio Expo WTC, C/Inca
& Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 The views expressed are purely those of the authors
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 qualitative) as an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role (p. 753.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 identification of emerging clusters analysing citations and keywords for a particular technology field,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Other tools and disciplines that can serve as interface to facilitate the use of qualitative and quantitative approaches and data Social network analysis:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 are brought not always together in the analysis 62 and qualitative and quantitative tasks are carried out by different teams,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Finally, in this debate, there is a tendency to equate qualitative with participatory.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 sciences, Cameron 71 developed the Five Ps Framework, 13 which provides a mixed-methods starter kit,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 reasonable representation of the systems being analysed, and that the intrinsic uncertainties associated with such representation are documented at best. 5. 2. 2. Lack of trust One aspect of trust is that it derives from perceived credibility,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 identification of the features that may help the organisers of FTA projects in the selection of the most appropriate set of tools (characterising
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 32 D. Rossetti di Valdalbero, The Power of Science economic research and European decision-making:
Change 80 (3)( 2013) 467 470 (this issue. 67 T. Wehnert, W. Jörß, Evaluation paper:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Fabiana Scapolo holds a Phd on foresight methodologies and practices from the Manchester University (UK).
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397
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Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents Lidan Gao a b,, Alan L. Porter c, Jing Wang d, Shu Fang a, Xian Zhang a, Tingting Ma e, Wenping Wang e, Lu Huang e
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 Corresponding author at: Chengdu Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, PR China.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 (test technology) via the nearest neighbour classifier,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 in DII by application year for the Application indicator and count the number of patents in DII by priority year for the Priority indicator
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2. 2. TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD It is better to choose a training technology with four TLC stages.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 We propose a normalisation method with two steps to pre-process the original data.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 A1 i; j ð Þ A1 i;
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 For each test point bk, we compute the distance between bk
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 definitive projections. Indeed, explicit analyses of what factors and forces are apt to alter projected developmental trends are worthwhile note Ted Gordon's Trend Impact analysis (TIA) especially 34.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2 H. X. G. Ming, W. F. Lu, C. F. Zhu, Technology challenges
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407
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Evolutionary theory of technological change: State-of-the-art and new approaches Tessaleno C. Devezas Technological forecasting and Innovation theory Working group, University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal Received 13 may 2004;
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Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Fig. 1 shows a framework that operationalizes the high level outline of adaptive policy-making.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is structured through workshops 35.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 explicitly considers the opportunities that uncertainties can present.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 In order to explore the problem and the uncertainties of energy transitions,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 fraction of new technologies for the no policy ensemble (in blue) and the basic policy ensemble (in green) as well as the KDES of the end states of all
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 this signpost. Using this trigger, the corrective action would be to stop investing in Technology 2
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 4. Discussion and implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) In this paper we proposed an iterative computational approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 3 E. Pruyt, J. H. Kwakkel, G. Yucel, C. Hamarat, Energy transitions towards sustainability:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Caner Hamarat is a Phd researcher at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418
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Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt Faculty of technology, Policy,
Similarly, if the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 15 27 88487.
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 that policy or planning debates can often be served even by the discovery of thresholds, boundaries,
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 This small and simplistic System Dynamics model was developed in about one day in close collaboration with a mineral/metal expert
Start, end, slope Fig. 1. Causal loop diagram of the scarcity model 18.422 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 otherwise. Next, we tried to identify subspaces in the overall uncertainty space that show a high concentration of crises runs using the Patient Rule Induction Method 31 33.
3. Evolution of market price for a 1000 runs. 424 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 3. 2
-1%+4%425 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 could serve as a starting point for slightly modifying the outlined dynamic adaptive plan,
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 can be decommissioned. Generation companies'expansion decisions are driven mainly by profit expectations,
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short term
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 some structural uncertainties were taken into account.
(2013) 419 431 scenario discovery. Another major avenue of research is on the communication of EMA that results to policy-makers and FTA practitioners.
)( 2008) 201 214.430 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Jan Kwakkel is a postdoctoral researcher at Delft
from short-term crises to long-term transitions. 431 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431
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and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities 6. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 Corresponding author.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 experiments in the policy process, new concepts and sustainable solutions can be found to grand challenges.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 our analysis a better understanding of the linkages between scenario design, methods used and related outcomes.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 5. Discussion Due to the social dynamic characteristic of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging 24.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The solutions developed should be socially reflexive
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 acknowledge the limits of our analysis: i e. using a policy perspective for doing an ex-post analysis of future scenario practice.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 References 1 C. Harries, Correspondence to what?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 58 J. P. Gavigan, F. Scapolo, A comparison of national foresight exercises, Foresight 1 (1999) 495
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443
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The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
and then recognizing that the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 E-mail address:
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
446 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 support nanotechnology education, research and development the fastest will thrive in the new millennium 1. These statements illustrate that the report
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 approaches to address environmental, health, safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
448 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 Nanolux (optics industry, nanotechnology for energy efficient lighting.
449 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 In this later stage, heterogeneous stakeholders beyond the actors of the early established nano-policy networks
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
80 (2013) 444 452 21 I. Malsch, Nanotechnology in Europe: Experts'Perceptions and Scientific Relations Between Sub-areas, Brussels Luxembourg, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 1997.22 National science and Technology Council, Nanotechnology, in:
and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
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Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Corresponding author. E-mail address: Elna. Schirrmeister@isi. fraunhofer. de (E. Schirrmeister.
Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive
80 (2013) 453 466 Transfers to other sectors, to other user groups...e g. from fashion to furniture industry;
web-extracted innovation. 456 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 3. Screenshot from the INFU web-based
survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 2. 2. Visual inspiration The INFU amplifications were illustrated in a visual,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 without any rootwithin phenomena that can be observed today 25,26.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
& Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 mini panels were the emergence of more active roles for users and citizens
and use phases. 462 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 (2) Participation:
Fig. 9. Element from INFU mini panel Participatory Innovation. 463 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.
465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
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