years

ART13.pdf

Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies Douglas K. R. Robinson a,,

, The netherlands Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 5 july 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.

Forecasts of the likely future development of S&t are generated; then research and development (R&d) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast.

But for new and Emerging s&t this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are articulated not yet.

Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.

0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.002 1. Lacunae and prospects of assessment and alignment tools for emerging science and technology For innovation to succeed actor alignment in the form of innovation chains from laboratory to products

Frontiers initiated in 2006 one such programme of Future oriented technology assessment activities (FTA. FTA is used here as an umbrella term for similar forward-looking and/or interactive characteristics of TA approaches.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 of alignment to allow for the creation of innovation chains in the field of micro and nanotechnology.

'4 Even though group leaders may use roadmap-type forecasts to organize financial support for their research. 5 As the Dutch Minacned consortium did in 2006 with their‘Roadmap Micro/Nanotechnology in Food';

/7 Cf Rip et al 2005 30‘Assessment'and‘alignment'can be used somewhat interchangeably where they refer to tools that help assessing actions on the way to an anticipated future-tools for‘anticipatory coordination'(learning curves of‘disruptive technologies';‘

and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty

In addition over the 15 years of research and development into lab-on-a-chip devices, larger industry has been reluctant to invest in stimulating

sample preparation, pretreattment analysis, manipulation and removal. 520 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538

Dosi, 1982, p 152) In their paper investigating the airplane construction regime, Nelson andwinter 35 argued that

The DC-3 aircraft in the 1930s was the template for over 20 years for innovation in aircraft design around piston powered planes with metal skin and low wings.

Deuten 2003, page 14). 521 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 then sustained by increasing returns.

that the study of unintended consequences is fundamental to the sociological enterprise (Giddens 1984, page 12). 12 Path creation and path dependence studies are merged also in the Free University of Berlin doctoral programme on organisational paths of the semiconductor consortia 42.13 Research becomes doable

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 With respect to the first notion a path lies at the domain level.

In 1990 Manz 51 posed that integrated microfluidics could be harnessed to create complex systems that integrate all necessary analysis steps on one chip,

and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).

In 1993, Harrison and Manz 52 reported on a breakthrough regarding the successful miniaturisation of the analytical technique of capillary electrophoresis,

In the mid 1990s other scientific communities (synthetic chemists; biologists) were attracted to the field, foreseeing that this technology could aid them in their work

Around 2000 nanotechnology started entering this field, offering improvements to existing chip components, but also providing novel concepts for separation and detection, cell analysis, cell manipulation etc.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 This can be translated into a prospective innovation chain diagram (see Fig. 2) where we see scientific and technological research on the left-hand side of the diagram,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The central bubble describes the further technical development of an experimental integration of elements into a working lab-on-a-chip device

(transition from phase 2 to phase 3). This development is the largest stumbling block over the past years (as described in the history above)

This barrier will be explored later in the paper as the main gap in the innovation chain for the last 15 years,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 be illustrated and discussed. In the following two sections we will describe both MPMS,

and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.

(2008) 517 538 single cell based biosensors 61,62 etc.,are now being circulated by many of both the TAS and biology communities.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 however can use different approaches and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Such an MPM-1 can be useful for developing a portfolio of research projects

Fourteen selected practitioners attended the workshop on 12 june 2006 in Amsterdam. Due to the aims and constraints of this paper we have to 529 D. K. R. Robinson,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 describe the details of the workshop process elsewhere. 17 Here we focus on the results relating to the MPM-2. The group identified a number of existing

www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product

4) Heterogeneous clusters. 531 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 move towards a generic platform

& Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 experiment. For example, the University of Hull's crime scene forensic device is one case where funding was given to develop a prototype device for DNA analysis,

From the outset 533 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 no preference can be given to any chain,

At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.

and ways of bridging 534 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 the gaps.

At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.

a young start-up company initiated in February 2006 with intentions to be the systems integrator of a lab-on-a-chip device focused on a specific application in the medical sector.

Policy 14 (1985) 3 22.2 A. Rip, Introduction of New technology: Making Use of Recent insights from Sociology and Economics of Technology, Technol.

Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.3 Richard E. Albright, Thomas A. Kappel, Roadmapping in the corporation, Res.

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 31 40.4 D. Barker, David J. H. Smith, Technology foresight using roadmaps, Long Range Plan. 28 (2

)( 1995) 21 28.5 T. Brady, H. Rush, M. Hobday, A. Davies, D. Probert, S. Banerjee, Tools for technology management:

an academic perspective, Technovation 17 (8)( 1997) 417 426.6 H. J. Duus, Strategic business market forecasting, Strateg.

Change 8 may 1999) 173 182.7 P. Groenveld, Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Res. Technol. Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.

Change 6 (1997) 97 115.9 T. A. Kappel, Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future, J. Prod.

Innov. Manag. 18 (2001) 39 50.10 R. N. Kostoff, E. Geisler, Strategic management and Implementation of Textual Data mining in Government Organizations, Technol.

Anal. Strateg. Manag. 11 (4)( 1999) 493 525.11 R. N. Kostoff, R. R. Schaller, Science and Technology roadmaps, IEEE Trans.

Eng. Manage. 48 (2 may 2001) 132 143.12 S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:

Overall process and detailed modules, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 (2005) 567 583.13 E. Lichtenthaler, The choice of technology intelligence methods in multinationals:

towards a contingency approach, Int. J. Technol. Manag. 32 (3 4)( 2005) 388 407.535 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538

14 R c. Mccarthy, Linking technological change to business needs, Res. Technol. Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 47 52.15 K. Matzler, M. Rier, H. H. Hinterhuber, B. Renzl, C. Stadler, Methods and concepts

in management: significance, satisfaction and suggestions for further research perspectives from Germany, Austria and Switzerland, Strateg.

Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.

Change 71 (2004) 5 26.17 D. Probert, M. Radnor, Frontier experiences from industry academia consortia, Res.

Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 27 30.18 D. Rigby, Management tools and Techniques: A survey, Calif. Manage.

Rev. 43 (2)( Winter 2001) 139 160.19 D. Rigby, C. Gillies, Making the most of management tools and techniques:

Change 9 (2000) 269 274.20 P. Savioz, M. Blum, Strategic forecast tool for SMES: how the opportunity landscape interacts with business strategy to anticipate technological trends, Technovation 22 (2002) 91 100.21 D. R. Myers, C. W. Sumpter, S. T. Walsh, B. A. Kirchhoff

, Guest Editorial: A Practitioner's View: Evolutionary Stages of Disruptive technologies, IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 49 (4 november 2002) 322 329.22 S. T. Walsh, Roadmapping a disruptive technology:

A case study. The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 161 185.23 G. Spinardi, R. Williams, The Governance Challenges of Breakthrough Science and Technology, in:

Catherine Lyall, Joyce Tait (Eds. New Modes of Governance. Developing an Integrated Policy Approach to Science, Technology, Risk and the Environment, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005, pp. 45 66.24 S. K. Kassicieh, S. T. Walsh

, J. C. Cummings, P. J. Mcwhorter, A d. Romig, W. D. Williams, Factors Differentiating the Commercialization of Disruptive

Manage. 49 (4 november 2002) 375 387.25 R. N. Kostoff, R. Boylan, G r. Simons, Disruptive technology roadmaps, Technol.

Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning

Plan. 1 (1)( 2004) 68 86.27 U. Fiedeler, T. Fleischer, M. Decker, Roadmapping as TA-Tool:

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.28 T. Fleischer, M. Decker,

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.

the social-constructivist challenge, Berlin, 5th and 6th september (2005. 32 A. Rip, D. K. R. Robinson, Socio-technical paths as a multilevel phenomenon, exemplified in the domain of nanotechnology,

EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4. 33 J. J. Deuten, Cosmpolitanising Technologies:

2003). ) 34 G. Dosi, Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change, Res.

Policy, 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.35 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.

75,1985, pp. 332 337.38 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.536 D. K. R. Robinson

, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 39 R. Garud, P. Karnøe, Path creation as a process of mindful deviation, in:

Path Dependence and Creation, Lawrence Earlbaum Associates, Mahwah, 2001, pp. 1 38.40 A. Giddens, The constitution of society:

Vision Assessment of Molecular Machines, J. Scientometrics 70 (3)( 2007. 42 U. Meyer, C. Schubert, Die Konstitution technologischer Pfade.

Sci. 17 (2)( 1987) 257 293.44 M. Callon, Techno-economic Networks and Irreversibility, in: John Law (Ed.),A Sociology of Monsters?

Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.45 M. Callon, The Dynamics of Techno-economic Networks, in:

Technological change and Company Strategies, Academic Press, London, 1992, pp. 72 102.46 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:

Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111.48 R. O. van Merkerk, D. K. R. Robinson, Characterizing the emergence of a technological field:

18 july September 2006) Number 3 4. 49 M. Callon, J. Law, A. Rip, Mapping the dynamics of science and technology, The Macmillan Press Ltd.

Actuators 1990, B1, 249 255.52 D. J. Harrison, K. Fluri, K. Seiler, Z. Fan, C. S. Effenhauser, A. Manz, Micromachining a Miniaturized Capillary

Electrophoresis-Based Chemical analysis System on Chip, Science 261 (1993)( 5123). 53 H. Andersson, A. Van den berg, Microfluidic devices for cellomics:

Actuators B 92 (3)( 2003) 315 325.54 J. El-Ali, P. K. Sorger, K. F. Jensen, Cells on chips, Nature 442 (2006.

Chem. 75 (2003) 3581 3586.56 E. Schilling, A. Kamholz, P. Yager, Cell lysis and protein extraction in a microfluidic device with detection by a fluorogenic enzyme assay, Anal.

Chem. 74 (2002. 57 F. K. Balagadde, L. C. You, C. L. Hansen, F. H. Arnold, S. R. Quake, Long-term monitoring of bacteria undergoing programmed population control in a microchemostat

, Science 309 (2005. 58 J. Voldman, M. L. Gray, M. Toner, M. A. Schmidt, A microfabrication-based dynamic array cytometer, Anal.

Chem. 74 (2002) 3984 3990.59 T. P. Burg, S. R. Manalis, Suspended microchannel resonators for biomolecular detection, Appl.

Lett. 83 (2003. 60 E. Eriksson, J. Engera, B. Nordlander, N. Erjavec, K. Ramser, M. Goksör, S. Hohmann, T. Nyström, D. Hanstorp, A microfluidic

system in combination with optical tweezers for analyzing rapid and reversible cytological alterations in single cells upon environmental changes Tools and Resources, Lab Chip (7)( 2007) 71 76.61 L

Actuators, B, Chem. 34 (1996) 270 275.62 J. J. Pancrazio, J. P. Whelan, D. A. Borkholder, W. Ma, D. A

Eng. 27 (1999) 697 711.63 C. Wood, C. Williams G. J. Waldron, Patch clamping by numbers, Drug Discov.

Today 9 (2004. 64 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios and reflexive anticipation: Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in:

Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar, 2002, pp. 355 381.65 B. Elzen, P. S. Hofman, F. W. Geels, Sociotechnical scenarios (STSC) A new

Cheltenham, 2005, pp. 251 281.67 D. K. R. Robinson, A. Rip, V. Mangematin, Technological agglomeration and the emergence of clusters and networks in nanotechnology, Res.

Policy (36)( 2007) 871 879.537 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 68 D

. K. R. Robinson, The use of the path concept and emerging irreversibilities in the analysis and modulation of nanotechnologies, EIASM Workshop on organising paths paths of organising, Berlin, November 2006, pp. 3 4

The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995. Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his undergraduate and master's degree in Physics and Space S&t at the University of Leicester (UK) and Universität Siegen (Germany.

75 (2008) 517 538

ART14.pdf

Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,

Ken Guy b, 1 a University of Manchester-PREST/MIOIR, Manchester, UK b Wise guys Ltd.,UK Received 28 september 2006;

received in revised form 15 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts,

notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported.

Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

15-16 St mary's House, St mary's Road, Shoreham-by-Sea, West sussex, UK-BN43 5za. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights

This has increased in importance in the past few years, not only in terms of the management of health-and environment-related risks,

if emerging 2 Phd research will be complete by Jan. 2010.3 Strategic goal for 2010, set for Europe at the Lisbon European council March 2000 (http://www. europarl. europa. eu/summits

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 knowledge societies are to flourish. Given this, there is need to develop a model capable of describing

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.

see 1. 542 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 the literature review,

'drivers and factors shaping modern societies. 7 See for example 2100 543 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 versions

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 This can be enriched by taking further sub-objectives and related impacts into account,

'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 goal can be identified and what factors lead to

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 in three categories: immediate; intermediate;

lasting for about two years, and received a lot of publicity, with the Prime minister giving the keynote speech at its conference.

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 The evaluation was critical of the intervention logic,

thus providing comprehensive lists of criteria and important factors in different conditions and environments. 550 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539

551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,

'552 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 competition, crowding and speed;(

1991 as quoted in 27). Network operation has to find a balance between flexibility and coordination efficiency,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 information, but also by people's wants, motives, personalities, experiences, value systems, wishes, hopes, expectations, beliefs, feelings, attitudes, needs and concerns.

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557‘knowledge society'are required also to enhance participatory governance and vice versa,

The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,

‘Futur the German research dialogue',Research Evaluation 13 (3)( 2004) 143 153.3 R. Barre, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:

Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, 2001, IPTS-ESTO Report EUR20137EN. 4 N. Brown, B. Rappert, et al.

An Evaluation of the Second Round of Swedish Technology foresight, Teknisk Framsyn, 2002 2004,2005. 7 J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, The targeted and unforeseen impacts of foresight on innovation policy:

the eforesee Malta case study, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 2 (1)( 2005) 84 103.8 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Evaluation of national foresight activities:

assessing rationale, process and impact, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2006) 761 777.9 A. Havas, Context, focus and coherence of foresight programmes, Lessons from the Czech republic and Hungary, Paper

tools to inform debates, dialogues and deliberations, Technikfolgenabschatzung, Theorie und Praxis 2 (14)( 2005) 74 79.14 R. Barre, M. Keenan, FTA Evaluation, Impact and Learning,

and Institutions 16 (4)( 2003) 503 526.21 G. F. Thompson, Between Hierarchies and Markets: the logic and limits of Network Forms of Organisation, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 2003.22 S. Wasserman, K. Faust, Social networks Analysis:

the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008

The rise of a large-scale European information technology initiative, Technology in Society 17 (4)( 1995) 385 412.

She has 10-year experience in policy development and analysis in the field of research and innovation.

Since 1996 she held the position of Director of the Science and Technology policy Studies Unit at ATLANTIS Research organisation (Greece)

which she resigned from at the end of 2006. Research interests include the areas of research evaluation and impact assessment, foresight, national innovation systems and policies, scientific advice for policy-making and risk governance.

www. wiseguys. ltd. uk, a company he launched in 2000 to conduct innovation policy research and provide advice to innovation policymakers and administrators.

and Technopolis Ltd, an innovation policy consultancy which he founded in 1989 and which, by the time of his departure in January 2000, had grown to be a leader in its field, with offices in Brighton, Amsterdam, Paris and Vienna.

Mailing address: Ken Guy, Wise guys Ltd. 15-16 St mary's House, St mary's Road, Shoreham-by-Sea, West sussex, UK BN43 5za. 557 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change

75 (2008) 539 557

ART15.pdf

Devising futures for universities in a multilevel structure: A methodological experiment Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budaörsi út 45.

H-1112, Budapest, Hungary Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 19 december 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Universities have traditionally been key players in producing

and validating new scientific knowledge, but other actors have also become major research performers. Meanwhile, the notion of research has been extended considerably,

and the environment of universities is also undergoing fundamental changes. Thus, it is timely to consider alternative futures for them,

Keywords: Alternative futures for the EU; The European research and Innovation Area (ERIA) and universities; Trends and drivers for changes;

or have undergone a series of major changes in the last 700 800 years, there appears to be a strong consensus on the need for a new round of fundamental reforms from all corners:

e g. the harsh critique by a former British minister of Education and Skills published in The Guardian on 10 may 2003,

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 starting point the‘unit of analysis'is either an existing or an abstract (hypothetical) university.

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 This is a sort of‘top-down'approach, and hence a number of‘micro-level'factors might be missing,

in Section 4 alternative visions are devised at three levels, with the time horizon of 2020 2025.

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 2. The role of universities in knowledge production 2. 1. The changing landscape of research systems Universities have traditionally been key players in

For a more detailed discussion, see, e g. 31.562 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 As for the third aspect, the very fact that universities'research efforts lead to rather diverse outputs (outcomes

and the repercussions of the‘massification'of the‘third level'education. 17 Just to illustrate this with the example of the UK in the mid-1990s:

signalling in itself no great likelihood of later worldly success. 37.563 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 of universities,

The average share of universities in performing basic research was 54%across the OECD in 2003,

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The most important recent key trends concern the roles/responsibilities of universities.

(per cent, 2005). 22 A further recent key trend is triggered by the so-called Bologna Process.

At the Berlin Conference, held on 18 19 september 2003, however, the need to incorporate doctoral studies into the Bologna Process was mentioned specifically 41,

and as the training of the future generation of researchers. 565 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The most important driving forces can be derived by considering the increasingly intense global competition in research activities;

Second, new types of currently‘unthinkable'research players might also Fig. 2. The distribution of researchers by R&d performing sectors (FTE, most recent years.

566 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 evolve, 23 and that could change the‘ecology'quite radically, e g. in terms of more pronounced variety,

from 44.5%at the beginning of the 1990s to 57.5%at the turn of the millennium (43, p. 57.

see, e g. 1, 22,42. 567 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 3. Stronger, better articulated needs for multi-(trans;

let alone among different types of them. 568 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 4. Futures for universities Vision-building requires an intense dialogue among stakeholders for two reasons:(

These visions offer a description of future states in 2020 2025 rather than fully fledged or path scenarios

569 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Futures developed in genuine foresight processes can be direct (or positive) inputs for policy preparation or strategy building processes:

in July 2005 the European commission published a draft document on Cohesion Policy in Support of Growth and Jobs:

Community Strategic Guidelines, 2007 2013 44. One of the specific guidelines is to improve the knowledge and innovation for growth.

facilitate innovation and promote entrepreneurship. 570 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 vis-à-vis competitiveness;

but a flexible interpretation of the Triad regions can easily include any relevant countries. 571 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Table 2 Features of the ERIA in two

& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 be made concerning the probability of these visions. In other words, we do not have any sound

and/or leading to waste of public resources. 573 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 all five of them are equally relevant from a policy strategy) point of view.

and thus devote more intellectual and financial resources to it. 574 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 other internal processes to the ever changing external environment, expressed by the needs of their‘clients':

are considered in 21.575 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The methods, approaches,

as well as by offering these new types of insights for other actors 576 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 universities,

not directly related to research activities of universities, are discussed in 21.577 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 touch with reality.

and on the‘mission'of the European 578 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Innovation and Research area are made in a transparent and conscious way.

'What is striking in this respect is the sheer lack of alternative visions in the 2007 Green Paper on The European research area 3. A major benefit for policy-makers (at the EU,

The national 579 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 governments, international organisations and associations of universities can provide methodological and financial support for these initiatives.

of knowledge, Communication from the Commission, COM (2003) 58 final, Brussels, 5 february 2003.3 EC, The European research area:

new perspectives, Green Paper, COM (2007) 161,4 April 2007.4 OECD, Four Futures scenarios for Higher education, OECD CERI, presented at the meeting of OECD Education Ministers, Athens

J. Educ. 41 (2)( 2006) 169 202.6 P. H. Aghion, et al. Why Reform Europe's Universities?

J. Econ. 18 (5)( 1994) 463 514.14 B.-Å. Lundvall, S. Borrás, The Globalising Learning Economy:

Implications for Innovation policy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 1999.580 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 15 OECD, New Rationale

Public policy 28 (4)( 2001) 247 258.18 EUROPOLIS, The European research area: a New Frontier for Europe? la lettre OST, No. 22,2001. 19 L. Georghiou, Evolving frameworks for European collaboration in research and technology, Res.

Policy 30 (6)( 2001) 891 903.20 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Res.

Policy 30 (6)( 2001) 953 976.21 A. Havas, Futures for Universities, paper presented at the Second International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:

Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29 september 2006, available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,

Policy 33 (3)( 2004) 455 471.23 EC, Frontier Research: The European Challenge, HLEG report, DG Research, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2005.24 OECD, Frascati Manual:

Basic science and Technological innovation, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D c.,1997 26 E. von Hippel, The Sources of Innovation, Oxford UP, Oxford, 1988.27 M. Akrich, R. Miller

, The Future of Research actors in the European research area, Synthesis Paper, HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2006.28 A. Bonaccorsi, The Changing Role of Researchers in Europe, 2020, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future

Policy 29 (2)( 2000) 109 123.30 M. Gibbons, C. Limoges, H. Nowotny, S. Schwartzman, P. Scott, M. Trow, The New Production

Policy 20 (2)( 1991) 109 119.34 K. Pavitt, The social shaping of the national science base, Res.

Policy 27 (8)( 1998) 793 805.35 A j. Salter, B. R. Martin, The economic benefits of publicly funded basic research:

Policy 30 (3)( 2001) 509 532.36 B. Kehm, Governance and Strategy, Presentation at a Workshop on Driving forces and Challenges for the European University, Brussels, March 23 24 2006.37

M. Thorne, ed.,Foresight, OST, DTI, London, 1999.38 EC, Third European Report on Science & Technology indicators 2003:

Policy 35 (10)( 2006) 1450 1464.43 EC, Key Figures 2005, Towards a European research area, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2005.44 EC Cohesion Policy

Community Strategic Guidelines, 2007 2013, COM (2005) 0299, available at: http://www. europa. eu. int/comm/regional policy/sources/docoffic/2007/osc/index en. htm. 581 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008

) 558 582 45 M. Sharp, Competitiveness and cohesion are the two compatible? Res. Policy 27 (6)( 1998) 569 588.46 K. Aiginger, Copying the US or developing a New European Model policy strategies of successful European countries in the nineties, paper presented at the UN

-ECE Spring Seminar 2004: Competitiveness and economic growth in the ECE region, Geneva, 23,february 2004 47 K. Aiginger, A. Guger, The European Socio-economicmodel:

Differences to the USA and Changes Over Time, WIFO, 2005.48 J. Romanainen, National Governments, Contribution to the DG Research Expert Group on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.

Attila Havas (MA 1983, Phd 1997) is a Senior Research fellow at the Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (e-mail:

havasatt@econ. core. hu. His academic interests are in economics of innovation theory and practice of innovation policy, and technology foresight.

In 1997 2000 he was Programme Director of TEP, the Hungarian technology foresight programme. He has participated in a number of international research projects on STI policies, innovation and transition,

He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. 582 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582

< Back - Next >