years

ART16.pdf

structures and capabilities that will take us forward to 2020,2035 and 2050? This special issue of TFSC presents a provocative alignment of papers designed to begin the probing of these fundamental questions about the future and future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.

Building on the success of the 2004 and 2006 events, the third edition of the Conference in October 2008

Out of the 166 abstracts that were submitted (50 more than in 2006), the Conference Scientific Committee selected 56 papers in order to build a comprehensive Conference program.

The papers and technical notes assembled from the 2008 FTA Conference were selected carefully and further nurtured to bring out three key themes:

10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.10.004 new power of IT and network analytical approaches, but it also directly aims its messages at policy makers responsible for designing more effective strategies for the deployment of public funds for R&d and those responsible for forecasting where and how to do this no small task indeed!

storage and distribution in Australia. 1136 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137 We conclude with the observation of Scott Cunningham

To conclude this special issue we welcome the column From My Perspective of the Founder and Editor-In-chief of this journal and one of the key participants of the FTA 2008 Seville Conference, Professor Harold A. Linstone.

Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference. Online source:

http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/intro. html (2009-07-30). 2 F. Scapolo, M. Rader, A Porter, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:

impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (4)( 2006) 457 582.

Totti Könnölä is a research fellow at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre in the European commission.

She was the leader of the VTT Technology foresight and Technology assessment in 1999 2008 being also the Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge center since 2007.

She holds a Phd from the Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Business administration. Her Lic. Tech. and M. Sc. degrees are from Helsinki University of Technology.

and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 1137 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137

ART17.pdf

Received 17 november 2008 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring and analyzing systemic change in technology.

Thus, exploratory modeling is used to explore Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 E-mail address:

A structured representation of the data provides a principled account of where technological change is most likely to occur. 1139 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The article

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The hierarchical representation of the data grows more attractive as the network grows larger,

the total Fig. 1. Example hierarchical random graph. 1141 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 number of links or edges

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 4. Results In this results section we apply the methodology described in the previous section to a specific system of new technologies.

Finally, we eliminate all links to pages associated with dates and years as these pages are rarely directly relevant to the topic under consideration.

Fig. 4. Expanding network of hyperlinks in Wikipedia. 1143 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 At least three other networks have been studied in the context

data. 1144 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The resultant hierarchical random graph usefully distinguishes between high-level concepts

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 As seen in Table 3 the model anticipates a threefold combination of Internet explorer, rich Internet applications and the World wide web consortium (W3c), with a likelihood of 81%.

This new standard for rich Internet applications was incorporated in a recent beta version of Internet explorer 8. 5. Policy impacts These developments in ARIA are less than a year old at the time this paper was written the W3c posted a working draft

dated 4 february 2008 27. Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28.

The history demonstrates that the first introduction of the page was 23 may 2008. The first release by Microsoft of a beta version of the browser incorporating the new standards was 5 March 2008.

In summary, the hierarchical random graph did seem to anticipate new technological changes in the area of new standards for accessible rich Internet applications.

%1146 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 Techniques such as the link prediction algorithm described here might assist in radical innovation processes by providing rapid

& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 If tacit knowledge has based a character upon the configuration of knowledge claims, then methods (such as the hierarchical graph)

and Matlab scripts as provided by Aaron Clauset on his webpage (Clauset 2008). The author appreciates helpful discussion from Jan Kwakkel on the epistemology of knowledge networks.

Manag. 6 (3)( 2002) 301 318.3 P. Anderson, M. Tushman, Technological discontinuities and dominant designs:

Q. 35 (1990) 6045 6633.4 A l. Porter, A t. Roper, T. W. Mason, F. A. Rossini, J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology

, John Wiley & Sons, New york, 1991.5 R. J. Lempert, S. Popper, S w. Bankes, Shaping the next one hundred years:

Sci. 47 (1)( 2001) 117 132.7 W. E. Walker, P. Harremoes, J. Rotmans, J. P. Van der Sluis, M. B. A

a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support, Integrated Assessment 4 (1)( 2003) 5 17.8 G. S. Altshuller, Creativity as an Exact Science

CRC Press, Boca raton, 1998.1148 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 10 D. R. Swanson, N. R. Smalheiser

Intell. 91 (2)( 1997) 183 203.11 H. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke, J. West, Open innovation: Researching a New paradigm Oxford, Oxford university Press, 2006.12 M. Gibbons, C. Limoges, H. Nowotny, S. Schwartzman, P. Scott, The New Production of Knowledge:

Stud. 26 (5)( 1992) 469 483.14 N. P. Suh, Axiomatic design of mechanical systems, J. Mech.

Des. 117 (Special B)( 1995) 2 10.15 C. Marchetti, N. Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy systems and the Logistic Substitution Model, International Institute for Applied Systems analysis

Policy 14 (1985) 235 251.17 J. P. Dismukes, Technologies of thinking'seen key to accelerated radical innovation, Res.

Manag. 48 (4)( 2005) 2 8. 18 A l. Porter Tech mining to accelerate radical innovation, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, 2007.19 Y. Yasunaga, M. Watanabe, M. Korenaga, Outline of the strategic technology roadmap of METI (Ministry of Trade and Industry

of Japan) and trial approaches for technology convergence with the methodology of technology roadmapping, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, Portland, Oregon:

PICMET, 2007.20 S. P. Hubbell, The Unified Natural Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton university Press, Princeton, 2001.21 A. Clauset, Hierarchical Random Graph, 2008, Accessed 25 august

2009. http://www. santafe. edu/aaronc/randomgraphs/./22 A. Clauset, C. Moore, M. E. J. Newman, Hierarchical structure and the prediction of missing links in networks, Nature 453 (2008) 98 101.23 M. Sales

-Pardo, R. Guimera, A a. Moreira, L a. N. Amaral, Extracting the hierarchical organization of complex systems, Proc.

Nat. Acad. f Sci. U s a. 104 (39)( 2007) 15224 15229.24 A. Vazquez, R. Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, Large-scale topological and dynamical properties of the Internet, Phys.

Rev. E 65 (6)( 2002) Article Number 066130.25 J. Gill, Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach, Chapman & Hall, 2002.26 J. J. Garrett, AJAX:

A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap

for accessible rich internet applications, W3c Working Draft, 4 february 2008,2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://www. w3. org/TR/wai-aria-roadmap/.

/28 Wikipedia, WAI-ARIA, 2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Accessible rich internet applications. 29 R. Henderson, K. M. Clark, Architectural innovation:

the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms, Adm. Sci. Q. 35 (1990) 9 30.30 S g. Green, M. B. Gavin, L. Aiman-Smith, Assessing a multidimensional measure of radical technological innovation, IEEE Trans.

Eng. Manage. 42 (3)( 1995) 203 214.31 K. Popper, Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary approach, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1972.32 J. Derrida, Of Grammatology, John Hopkins University Press, Balitmore, MA, 1974.33 M. Callon, J. P. Courtial

, W. A. Turner, S. Bauin, From translations to problematic networks: an introduction to co-word analysis, Soc.

Inf. 22 (2)( 1983) 191 235.34 Lakatos, The Methodology of Scientific research Programmes: Philosophical Papers, Two Volumes, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 1978.35 M. Polanyi, Personal Knowledge:

was published in 2001 with Wiley. 1149 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149

ART18.pdf

Received 11 march 2008 Received in revised form 6 april 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide.

2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Regional foresight Strategic planning Participation Infrastructure 1. Infrastructure planning and foresight In OECD countries, most infrastructure sectors such as electricity supply, water supply and sanitation were constructed over the 20th century by implementing a narrow

these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding

For almost one hundred years in industrialized countries, infrastructure 1151 E. Störmer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 organizations have been optimizing to guarantee the provision of homogeneous and affordable services.

Today a balanced consideration of environmental, social and economic aspects is necessary 16. Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness,

In line with this shift of attention, foresight was conceived mainly as an informing policy task until the 1970s,

Land use transportation scenario planning projects have been carried out since the late 1980s in the US 37. In particular metropolitan transportation has moved from a supply-side focus siting facilities to meet projected demands toward a more 1152 E. Störmer et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 integrated system-and demand-management perspective 38, p. 4. Some scenario projects show a variety of different land use

but is rather an important first step in an overall strategic planning process (Coates 1985 cited in 25).

and system alternatives for an infrastructure system in the time horizon of 25 years which is congruent with the expected average lifetime of central infrastructure components.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 actors. The core team selects approximately a dozen stakeholder representatives according to their influence and affectedness 61.

and uncertain factors for further analysis. During the first stakeholder workshop the participants project different possible states of each of the factors in the year 2030+of each of the suggested influencing factors.

They construct the context scenarios for the year 2030+discursively by describing coherent and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 For analyzing these trade-offs, we have developed two graphical representations of the assessment data.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 participate in the different stages of the process.

Connection rates of households to centralized wastewater treatment plants rose from form 15%in 1965 to 97%in 2005.

The sanitation system has limited flexibility to adapt to changing context conditions as its key technical components have a very long life time (e g. sewer system last 80 years,

wastewater treatment plants last 25 years 17). Communities own and operate most of the sanitation systems.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,

These cases were run between late 2006 and early 2008. In the next section, we present the process

In the first workshop, the stakeholders elaborated four alternative scenarios describing context conditions in the year 2030+based on the set of influencing factors

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 the prevailing technical structure and the autonomy of the existing organizations.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 and a forceful coordination of regional sanitation services.

One year later the political decision making process approved this plan that first foresees an intensified collaboration of joint human resource management leading to joint ownership of facilities

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 The elaboration of a joint system representation by the different organizations in the Kiese catchment furthermore prepared the ground for intensified collaboration and shared visions.

In this process the result was a radically different solution compared to an earlier recommendation gained in a conventional planning process less than two years earlier:

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Acknowledgements The project Regional infrastructure foresight was funded by The swiss National science Foundation within the National research Program 54 Sustainable development of the Built Environment.

References 1 I. Dyner, E. R. Larsen, From planning to strategy in the electricity industry, Energy Policy 29 (13)( 2001) 1145 1154.2 D. Dominguez

Rev. 51 (2)( 2009) 30 50.3 OECD, Infrastructure to 2030: Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2006.4 B. Flyvbjerg, Policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects:

B 34 (2007) 578 597.5 D. Dominguez, B. Truffer, W. Gujer, Tackling uncertainty in infrastructure sectors through strategic planning.

I. Miles, M. Butter, G. Sainz, Global Foresight outlook 2007, Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World, EFMN, Manchester, 2007.7 E. A. Eriksson, K

Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.8 A. Salo, K. Cuhls, Technology foresight past and future, J. Forecast. 22 (2 3)( 2003) 79 82.9 P

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, Futures 41 (2009) 80 86.14 F. W. Geels, The hygienic transition from cesspools to sewer systems (1840 1930:

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Technol. 35 (9)( 1997) 3 10.17 D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, Evolution of a wastewater treatment plant challenges traditional design concepts, Water Res. 40 (7

)( 2006) 1389 1396.18 I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, R. Popper, The many faces of foresight, in:

Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.21 J. F. Coates, Scenario planning from my perspective, Technol. Forecast.

Change 65 (1)( 2000) 115 123.22 M. Mannermaa, Futures research and social decision making: alternative futures as a case study, Futures 18 (5)( 1986) 658 670.23 L. Börjeson, M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types

and techniques: towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008

) 25 33.25 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2 3)( 2003) 93 111.26 F. Berkhout

, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G

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knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (8)( 2006) 942 955.29 W. Xiang, K c. Clarke, The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Environ.

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)( 2007) 338 348.37 K. Bartholomew, Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality, Transportation 34 (2007) 397 412.38 C. Zegras, J. Sussman, C. Conklin, Scenario planning for strategic regional transportation planning, J. Urban Plann.

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Res. Part D-Transport. Environ. 8 (5)( 2003) 323 342.40 K. Chatterjee, A. Gordon, Planning for an unpredictable future:

transport in Great britain in 2030, Transp. Policy 13 (3)( 2006) 254 264.41 Vision 2030 Consortium, Vision 2030 Final Report.

An Investigation into the Long-term challenges and Opportunities for the UK's Strategic Highway Network, Highway Agency for England, London, 2003.42 Office of Science and Technology, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, Foresight Directorate

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European commission (Ed.),The European forseight monitoring network. Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.46 H. Thenint, L. Lengrand, Démarche Prospective Transport 2050 For a better French

transport policy, in: European commission (Ed.),The European forseight monitoring network. Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.47 H. J. van Zuylen, K. M. Weber, Strategies for European

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the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007 2020, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1279 1302.50 P. A. Steenhof, B c. Mcinnis,

A comparison of alternative technologies to decarbonize Canada's passenger transportation sector, Technol. Forecast. Soc.

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in transdisziplinären Projekten, GAIA 1 (2007) 41 45.56 R. Barré, S&t Foresight as a Collective Learning process In view of Strategic decision making:

Overview and Interpretative Framework, European Science and Technology observatory (ESTO), Paris, 2001.57 I. Miles, Appraisal of Alternative methods and Procedures for Producing Regional foresight, EU Kommission, Brüssel, 2002.58 R. Popper,

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, E. Scheider, K. Zöller, Abfallwirtschaft 2005. Bürger planen ein regionales Abfallkonzept. Teil 1: Projektbeschreibung, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, 1999.67 O. Renn, H. Kastenholz, P. Schild, U. Wilhelm, Abfallpolitik im kooperativen Diskurs.

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ART19.pdf

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies Raija Koivisto, Nina Wessberg, Annele Eerola, Toni Ahlqvist, Sirkku Kivisaari, Jouko Myllyoja, Minna Halonen VTT Technical research Centre of Finland

Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools,

The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years.

In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.

The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years, depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise.

whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Both the SECI and SLC model emphasize the shared knowledge making.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 interviews. Megatrends and weak signals are also the crucial targets of the examination:

and space technology in the 1960s 13. These fields are renowned for their complicated systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences.

During the 1970s, a worldwide trend of increasing accidental losses in factories was recognised 14. Process industrial operations also became more complex and larger volumes of chemicals were used at higher pressures than previously.

Various major accidents in the process industry in the 1970s (e g. Flixborough, 1974; Seveso, 1976;

A systematic and Fig. 2. A systemic framework for methods 10.1 For instance, the TA studies carried out by the US Office of Technology (OTA) in 1974 1995 primarily served to inform Congress

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 analytic way to assess and manage risks in a complex context was rapidly showing its success. The number of industrial accidents

In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened. Approaches like inherent safety 26 in process design as well as resilience engineering 27 in process operating address the complex nature of industrial process.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 the resilient ecosystem dynamics, the resilience engineering stands for an industrial process

research period 2006 2009. The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.

The time frame of the study was the year 2015. The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight

in order to evaluate their business potential after 5 10 years in a medium-size company. One opportunity was selected for more thorough concept development including iterative steps of idea generation and enrichment,

Risks, Potential and Adaptation (CES, time frame 2007 2010. The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.

It will address how the conditions for production of renewable energy in the Nordic area might change due to global warming.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The positioning of the case projects in the Fig. 4 can be explained by the types of projects:

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Fig. 1. However, the normal monitoring and evaluation actions are conducted

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 4. 3. Lessons learned from the case projects The basic lessons learned from the case projects are shown in Table 1. The case projects of this paper (IRRIIS, INNORISK,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS. In turn, there is a shift towards a more contingent approach also in risk assessment as is in FTA APPROACH.

In the Book‘Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy',Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 25 40.2 T.,Könnölä, T.,Ahlqvist, A.,Eerola, S.,Kivisaari, R.,Koivisto

Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.3 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, Int. J. Foresight Innov.

Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.4 K. Smith, Innovation as a systemic phenomenon: rethinking the role of policy, Enterp.

Studies 1 (9)( 2000) 73 102. Table 2 The main characteristics, differences, similarities and future expectations.

Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

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Foresight for Europe, Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, April 24, 2002, European commission, Brussels, 2002.6 A. Eerola, E. Väyrynen, Developing technology forecasting and technology assessment

available on website http://www. vtt. fi/inf/pdf/tiedotteet/2002/T2174. pdf read 7. 8. 08). 7 A. Eerola, B. H. Jørgensen

I. Miles, M. Butter, G. Sainz de la Fuenta, Global Foresight outlook GFO 2007. Mapping Foresight in Europe and the Rest of the World.

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, D. Gaston, Review of 62 risk analysis methodologies of industrial plants, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, vol. 15, Elsevier Science Ltd.

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A User-friendly Approach, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, New york, 1991.27 E. Hollnagel, Resilience the challenge of the unstable, in:

Concepts and Precepts, Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Hampshire, 2006, pp. 9 17,2006. 28 T. Uusitalo, R. Koivisto and W. Schmit, Proactive risk assessment of critical infrastructures.

Theory, Methods and Applications, Taylor & francis Group, London, 2009, ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5. 29 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala

2006 http://www. flickr. com/photos/51072101@N00/91829174/(read 13.12.2007). 32 H. Weinrich, The TOWS matrix:

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, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida

, USA, International Association for the Management of Technology, 2007, pp. 1306 1324.36 T. Luoma, J. Paasi, H. Nordlund.

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Tours, France, 15 18 june 2008. ISPIM, 2008.37 R. Molarius, N. Wessberg, J. Keränen, J. Schabel, Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure hydropower plant case, Finland,

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towards a new safety paradigm, Journal of Risk Research 10 (7)( 2007) 959 975 October 2007.

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43 Arlington Institute. http://www. arlingtoninstitute. org/(read May 28th 2009. 44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,

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Prof. Raija Koivisto has over twenty years experience in safety, security, risk assessment and foresight related research at VTT.

Her current research interests include emerging risks and critical infrastructure protection, among others. She also holds a docent position in the University of Oulu

She graduated in environmental engineering (M. Sc. 1996) and in environmental policy (M. Sc. 1997, Lic.

2000 and D. Sc. 2007. She was first working as an environmental policy researcher at the University of Tampere.

In 1999 she joined VTT to work in developing the management of environmental risks. In 2007 she entered VTT's Technology foresight and technology assessment team.

Dr. Annele Eerola is Senior Research scientist and Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge centre‘Organisations, Networks and Innovation systems'at VTT.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Dr. Toni Ahlqvist is Senior Research scientist and Team Leader of Technology foresight and Technology assessment team at VTT.

Minna Halonen (MSC) has been working as Research scientist at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland since 2004.

She graduated in applied geography from the University of Rome La Sapienza in 2003. Her main research interests concern technology foresight, service research and sustainable development. 1176 R. Koivisto et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176

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