''In this context, there is wide agreement that the two years since the 2006 International Seville FTA Conference had seen significant development in FTA capacity across many countries and regions:‘‘
and evaluating the impact of fta has emerged as a major preoccupation for the field in recent years, with the recognition that demonstrating impact is probably the greatest hurdle to the wider acceptance and use of FTA.
and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
and their quantification Reduce exposure to the hazardous agent Strategy type Precaution Precautionary prevention Prevention Examples Car friendly urban policy in the 1960's leading to congestion several years
and Ville Lauttama ki is a Researcher, both at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku, Turku, Finland. low-carbon society by the year 2050.
the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050: development that will contribute to limiting the rise in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius at the most,
Backcasting scenarios are usually relatively long-term (20-100 years)( Robinson, 1990, p. 820), which in itself helps thinking outside current trends
and the staff of the Prime minister's Office on whether or not attaching numerical values to scenarios stretching all the way to year 2050 is advisable.
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).
With this strategy they have been successful in getting several Venture capital grants over the first few years of existence 19,20.
This research agenda shifted over the years towards the production capacity controlled growth and applications of nanotubes.
and SWNT) that is expected for the coming years. Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective:
However, the expectations are that commercialising this option still lies far ahead (at least 10 years.
however these expectations are expressed 2 years later, after the new scientific results, which were obtained in the meantime. At the market side, other dynamics are present.
Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.
During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
Some initiatives have started over the last few years; we will mention the three most striking ones.
Because not all problems were solved over the last years, Nantero adapted a (proprietary) hybrid solution that allows for some errors,
So, over the last few years some problems were solved and others were overcome by adapting the design.
For the coming years Nantero not only aims at getting their product to the market, but also improving the existing technology to achieve even higher densities of suspended crossbars,
Over the years two rounds of Venture capital were received and successful collaboration with ASML was established. In the coming years Nantero aims at getting their product to the market and to improve the existing technology.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Step by step the problems around producing predetermined nanotubes and applying them for nonvolatile memories are solved (straight growth and deposition).
The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;
In recent years, the pre-eminence of collaborative planning has added to the detriment of futures studies.
As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.
plausible representation of the alternative futures into which the SD concept may evolve by the year 2025.
and diversified than 20 years ago when it was dominated by the construction and tourism sectors.
For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years
Projections for the year 2025 are displayed using diverse tools and analysis methods. The ultimate purpose of these parameters is to translate functional implications into quantitative values,
Variation in population over a year, expressed as a percentage of the difference of the number of individuals in the total population at the beginning of that period Urban density.
Difference of immigrants and emigrants of an area in a year divided per 1, 000 inhabitants (considered on midterm population) Dependency ratio.
Megawatts hour of electricity per inhabitant consumed in a year Economic growth. Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.
foresight with urban planning was developed over a five-year period. Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.
and experience gathered over the last five years. These findings are grouped into two sets. The first group of findings relate to the advisability of changing the Spanish urban development model
‘‘how will law evolve in the next twenty years?''''In order to attain a response (or several of them),
and year-to date reports all focus on events in the past. Even alerts focus almost exclusively on incidents that occurred in the past,
Kahn, H. and Wiener, A j. 1967), The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on The next Thirty-Three Years, Macmillan, New york, NY.
Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. 2011),‘Combining quantitative and qualitative in FTA: rediscovery or something new?''
while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (N10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product
Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly. TA has started with the investigation of large complex technologies (conventional or nuclear energy technologies, aerospace technologies...
During the last years, the technological focus has shifted somewhat towards rather small, widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,
In the last years, in many countries due to economic and social pressures there is a shift of focus towards technologies that stimulate
and outlook The landscape for Technology assessment has changed over the last few years. Political priorities are altering
and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.
In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
In recent years, both Friedhelm Hillebrand and Matti Makkonen have been described as the‘inventors'of SMS (Wallén 2008;
Notes on contributors Denis Loveridge is an Honorary Visiting professor at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) at the Manchester Business school after 44 years in industry.
likewise, the statement‘this material promises a reduction in electrical resistance of 30%in two years'does something,
they should be able to meet this specification within two years. Van Lente (1993,2000) has argued that such transformation of a promise into a requirement is a central mechanism in the dynamics of expectations:
Three years after his prediction, in 1968, Gordon Moore founded with Robert Noyce the company Intel,
will new laws be enacted in the next 10 years? If so, how strict will these be?.
The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios, but much shorter for sector and business scenarios.
and mobility business and are carried out at a global level or for a specific region over a 10 15-year perspective.
A specific initiative the‘Probes Program'has been established recently as a long-run (10-year time horizon) research project intended to present‘provocations'about new lifestyle patterns,
Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
In the case of the consumer products and ICT businesses, the time horizon is 5 years.
Managers at BASF and Daimler could be quite confident about the key decisions they would have to make in the next 20 years or even more
Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.
Denis Loveridge is Honorary Visiting professor at Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR), Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, after 44 years in industry.
Research investment decisions made 10 and 15 years ago are having a direct impact on national security programs today.
LDRD projects have a maximum duration of 3 years. Continuation proposals and an annual review are required for each existing project that has completed not its term.
Year Year Year Year Year Year PIA PI PI Author Source Text Text Text Text Abstract Text a PI=principal investigator.
no project reports are available for the current year. These data are proprietary to Sandia,
We also used an optimized stopword list prior to construction of the initial term Fig. 1. Process of putting data into a Vxinsight map. 3 FY=fiscal year,
and sliding through sequences of years with a slider. Relationships among the individual data records may be displayed as arrows between documents
The conceptual overlap between EP and MST has increased significantly in the past 2 years, especially in the area of integration for product application.
or to suggest potential collaborative opportunities between laboratories. 5. Future directions This is the first year that we have applied such analyses to our LDRD process.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
varying roughly from a few months to 2 years. In these checkpoints, the roadmap is assessed against the changed circumstances.
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s. Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The construction machinery roadmap can be approached as systemic
She has more than 20 years'experience in safety, security, risk assessment, and foresight-related research in VTT.
Our endeavours should be considered within the FTACONTEXT (see http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/).Over the years,
The swiss Federal Institute of technology is certainly the dominant single institution researching DSSCS. 4 Especially in recent years,
%of their patents in the most recent years; leading inventor teams; and notable collaborators. Research profiling can extend to the country level.
(e g. due to outside exposure over many years), and eventual recycling and disposal means. Of note,
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
which are formulated every five years. In the Second and Third Basic Plans, which started in 2001 and 2006 (Government of Japan, 2001,2006),
In recent years, the development of the internet has broadened the potential of exercises: it has enabled the enhancement of foresight objectives (Cachia et al.
Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were carried out twice,
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and technological developments over a period of ten to 15 years in specific areas
In summary, over the last five years or so, an increasingly consensual view has emerged that Europe needs to direct its investment
the 12-month exercise has had the aim of identifying up to 20 priority areas for the allocation of public funding of research and development over five years.
the potential impact they might have on The irish national context over the coming ten to 15 years,
2 What are the challenges for Ireland that you expect these drivers to raise in the next 10-15 years?
and will continue to be so for at least ten years while renewable energy makes an impact on energy supply The challenge for Ireland is to achieve greater energy security
Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.
it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
In the last ten to 15 years, Japan (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2010), Finland (University of Joensuu, 2010), the UK (Loveridge et al.
and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).
The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (2030 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available.
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
For example, the foresight activity of Japan has up to a 30-year time horizon, and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view
but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,
which is‘‘time of technological realization before 2020''for Japan, ‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
were regarded as having realization before the year 2020. The remaining six and three Delphi topics are regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030 and after the year 2031, respectively.
In South korea's case, most of the Delphi topics were regarded by experts as having realization before the year 2020;
only one topic regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030. In China, all the topics were regarded as having realization before the year 2020.
Table V summarizes the realization time distribution of Delphi topics in Japan, South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
The mapping results are demonstrated using the 35 technology fields suggested by WIPO. The summary results of the mapping for technology interaction prospected by Japan,
energy) is a hot technology application before the year 2020, where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management),
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) is prospected also by these three countries as second hot application technology before the year 2020,
The third hot application technology before the year 2020 is technology 32 (Transport), and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
energy) is targeted the main application technology by other technologies before the year 2020. The source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental
the technology interactions of the Delphi topics before the year 2020 are much more divergent.
or for the identification of potential disruptive technologies 5 10 years ahead. Shibata et al. 33 distinguish between incremental
Social network analysis has attracted attention in the past years allowing quantitative analysis on relationships and links that make up various social processes.
It follows that such projection becomes increasingly precarious as the future horizon is extended beyond a few years.
Thirteen indicators are selected for TLC assessment (Table 2). All the data of the indicators are extracted by priority year (the first filing date year for a patent application
application year, priority year, and basic year. The basic year has no legal meaning, but only represents the year in
which DII obtained the patent documents. Currently, most of TLC related literatures are based on application year 15,17 20.
But the priority year presents the first time an invention has been disclosed. So in this paper, we choose the other two indicators to measure the development of technology:
we count the number of patents Table 1 Technology life cycle indicators by former researchers. Author Indicator Robert J Watts, Alan L Porter 14 Number of items in databases such as Science Citation Index number of items in databases such as Engineering
Index number of items in databases such as U s. patents Number of items in databases such as Newspaper Abstracts Daily Issues raised in the Business
and Popular Press abstracts Trends over time in number of items Technological needs noted Types of topics receiving attention Spin-off technologies linked Reinhard Haupt, Martin Kloyer
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 in DII by application year for the Application indicator and count the number of patents in DII by priority year for the Priority indicator
We count the respective numbers for each of these two indicators in DII by priority year. 2. 1. 3. Inventor This indicator indicates the amount of human resources invested in R&d of one particular technology.
We count the number of unique individual inventors of each year by priority year. 2. 1. 4. Citation Two major types of cited references are given in a patent:
We count the number of literature citations and the number of patent citations in DII by priority year. 2. 1. 5. IPC (four-digit) The International Patent Classification (IPC) system,
We count the number of IPCS 4-digit) in DII by priority year for the IPC indicator;
count the number of patents among the top 5 IPCS in DII by priority year for the IPC top 5 indicator;
and count the number of patents among the top 10 IPCS in DII by priority year for the IPC top 10 indicator. 2. 1. 6. MCS The Derwent manual code (MC
We count the number of MCS in DII by priority year for the MC indicator;
count the number of patents among the top 5 MCS in DII by priority year for the MC top 5 indicator;
and count the number of patents among the top 10 MCS in DII by priority year for the MC top 10 indicator.
Indicator Indicator description 1 Application Number of patents in DII by application year 2 Priority Number of patents in DII by priority year 3 Corporate Number
of corporates in DII by priority year 4 Non-corporate Number of non-corporates in DII by priority year 5 Inventor Number of inventors in DII by priority year
6 Literature citation Number of backward citations to literatures in DII by priority year 7 Patent citation Number of backward citations to patents in DII by priority year
8 IPC Number of IPCS (4-digit) in DII by priority year 9 IPC top 5 Number of patents of top 5 IPCS in DII by priority
year 10 IPC top 10 Number of patents of top 10 IPCS in DII by priority year 11 MC Number of Manual Codes (MCS) in DII by priority year 12 MC top 5 Number of patents of top 5 MCS
in DII by priority year 13 MC top 10 Number of patents of top 10 MCS in DII by priority year 401 L. Gao et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2. 2. TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD It is better to choose a training technology with four TLC stages.
From the literature, we find that the Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) has been developed for more than 100 years
But the patent information in the early years is unavailable (patent data in DII covers 1963 to the present.
but slightly increases in the following years. The number of inventors is less than some other indicators, such as application numbers and priority application numbers in the maturity and decline stages.
and imported into MS Excel 13 rows of indicators, 30 columns (years) for TFT-LCD (from 1978 to 2007), 36 columns (years) for CRT (from 1972 to 2008),
and 24 columns (years) for NBS (from 1985 to 2008. Table 3 TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD.
Stage Emerging Growth Maturity Decline Period (year)( CRT) 1897 1929 1930 1972 1973 2000 2001 2020 Period (year)( TFT-LCD
The first step is data smoothing by calculating three-year moving averages. The original data are defined as A A1;
, 2 10 years in the future) to provide a more robust sense of likely developmental trajectory than does single variable trend projection.
and tools that have grown explosively in recent years related to the biosciences, bioinformatics and evolutionary approaches. Among the needs for TFA envisioned by the TFA Methods Working group we find the questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (Ref. 1, pp. 299:
In the previously cited 30-year anniversary issue of TF and SC (1999) Bowonder et al. 3 have reviewed briefly this topic,
and Fig. 1. Technological forecasting in perspective presented by Linstone in the 30-year anniversary issue of TF and SC (1999).
became in last years the most common figures permeating social and natural sciences as well. The metaphorical language provides the means for understanding
and for more than fifteen years there has been the djournal for Evolutionary Economicst (Springer), devoted particularly to this topic.
lifetime of a technology Parametric Varying between 15 and 50 years for different technologies Delay orders of lifetimes Orders of the decommissioning delays Categorical 1st, 3rd, 10th,
and constructing new capacity for a technology Parametric Varying between 1 and 5 years for different technologies Progress ratios Ratio for determining cost reduction due to learning curve Parametric Varying
rate Parametric Randomly fluctuating between-0. 01 and 0. 035 (smoothed concatenation of 10-year random growth values) Investment preference structures Preference criteria
These results show that the fraction of new technologies seems to be concentrated around 60%of total generation capacity by the simulated year 2100,
which means that over the 100 year simulation time, the fraction of new technologies remains below 60%for about half of the runs.
Each of the economic growth parameters indicated in the third region corresponds to the value of economic development for ten years
and together they constitute the overall behavior of economic development over 100 years. Although it is difficult to interpret the combination of these economic growth parameters,
a 20%cost reduction of the new technologies is triggered over a period of 10 years. To further address this vulnerability, we also add a hedging action to the basic policy in the form of additional commissioning of Technologies 3 and 4 in their early years.
These actions together aim at making the sustainable technologies more cost efficient once their costs are reasonably affordable levels
and to promote the transition toward new technologies in their early years. The economic action is successful in promoting sustainable technologies
and increasing the total fraction after the first 10 years (around 2020). The adoption of the new technologies in later years is also higher than under the basic policy,
suggesting that these cost reductions are effective. To improve the performance of the adaptive policy even further,
Fig. 5 shows that these actions are effective in the early years, but lose their effect after 2020 due to the time-restricted nature of the hedging action.
Change 77 (2010) 917 923.8 R. J. Lempert, S. Popper, S. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years:
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol has been working over the last couple of years on a plan for guiding its long-term development 37,38.
and Lelystad Airport which is to be developed in the coming years. Using a conjugant gradient optimization algorithm
Outcome indicators Static plan Adaptive plan Size of noise contour after 30 years (km2) 13.2 63.8 10.2 47.4 Cumulative Average Casualty Expectancy (ACE
) 0. 9 2. 7 1. 1 2. 3 Ratio practical capacity to demand after 30 years 0. 25 2. 48 0. 89 1
That is, in most cases, the fraction of fossil based generation in the final year is higher than 0. 6. Thus,
Planning horizon for each generation company is initialized randomly using a uniform distribution with a lower (i e. 5 years) and an upper bound) 6 12 Mean return on investment of generation companies Average expected return
Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future, Columbia University Press, New york, USA, 2007.7 R. J. Lempert, S. Popper, S. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years:
An Exploratory System Dynamics Model and Analysis of the Global Copper System in The next 40 Years, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2011.22 J. H. Kwakkel, W
Airfield Capacity Model, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington D c, 1981.40 FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal years 2008 2025, U s. Department of transportation, Federal Aviation
Received 4 july 2011 Received in revised form 24 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 11 november 2012 In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis,
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
i e. beyond twenty years, can be difficult. Most often, the scenarios are used to highlight important societal assets under threat.
i e. 5 10 year. Breaking up the long-term in more tangible time periods helps understand the necessary steps for embracing change.
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011