8. More than ten years have passed since the U s. National science and Technology Council published its first vision for nanotechnology research
engineering and technology research and development from the approximately $255 million it spent in fiscal year 1999.1.
In the years following the implementation of the NNI the Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology (NSET) Subcommittee of the NSTC Committee on Technology (which succeeded the IWGN) called for the involvement of social scientists across the board 38
The need to increase multi-stakeholder and public participation in nanotechnology governance is stated as one of the main lessons learned after ten years 3. In 2011, the key architect of the National Nanotechnology Initiative
but considering the nano-related FTA of the last fifteen years, the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
Through the action plan, other federal ministries8 finally joined the German nanotechnology initiative more than fifteen years after the firstmonitoring and forecasting activitieswere conducted.
ten years on, Organ. Stud. 28 (2007) 1243 1264.16 M. Roco, The long view of nanotechnology development:
the National Nanotechnology Initiative at 10 years, J. Nanopart. Res. 13 (2011) 427 445.17 K. E. Drexler, Engines of creation, The Coming Era of Nanotechnology, Anchor Press, New york, 1987.18 K. E. Drexler
whereas an intuitive approach without any software support has been practiced for many years in the US 17.
In the past years approaches have been developed to integrate disruptive events into scenario building in the form of wildcards 20.
which was scanned then systematically back to the year 2007 by the project teammembers, who acted as signal scouts in this phase of the project.
In the past ten years she has worked on Foresight at Fraunhofer ISI and at the European commission's institute for prospective technological studies JRC-IPTS.
The next two or three years promise to be a critical period for the challenged practices of FTA,
Furthermore, the editors of this Special issue, each from their own vantage point, have been following the evolution of the disparate fields brought together by FTA over the years.
and ending up with a version of the expert's best guess regarding the best bet for winning the industrial or technological race ten or so years on.
In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
The working group recommended that the Danish parliament launched a programme for technology foresight that has a budget of DKK 25 30 million (ca. EUR 3. 3 4. 2 million) over three years.
Every four years, such a process should result in a catalogue of important themes for strategic research.
Thus, the catalogue constituted the basis for prioritisation for the next three years. However other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process.
During the parliament's budget negotiation in 2008, approximately DKK 1 bn (ca. EUR 134 million) was allocated to strategic research in the two year period of 2009 and 2010.
including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.
and will be elaborated in the coming years. However, the initial findings can already shed new light on the use of foresight methods
The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, 2005.3 H. Kahn, A. Wiener, The Year 2000, Macmillan, New york, 1967.4 P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, Wiley
The establishment of strong connections with existing formal and informal networks, 3 particularly those contacts cultivated over the years 18,
The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020 and beyond.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 33 1 3 years and to be concluded in 3 7 years;
and (ii) actions (RAS in Fig. 4) that are of mid-term implementation (7 10 years), with a wider focus and linked to the research topics,
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
In fact, in the past 10 to 15 years, FTAACTIVITIES havemultiplied across a wide spectrum of settings and at different levels.
Previously, Fabiana was leading for more than 4 years the Foresight activities implemented by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (DG JRC-IPTS) located in Seville (Spain.
Their role was to evaluate the ideas in terms of market potential(‘now'and‘in five years),
The second column‘market potential+5y'indicates the experts'mean estimated potential five years from the moment of surveying (end 2014.
and the last column‘implemented 5y'indicates the number of respondents that thinks this idea will be implemented effectively in five years'time.
but the majority of the experts see them implemented within five years'time anyway. The open source, surveillance and smart home ideas can be considered as the most innovative ideas
The starting point for this study was the observation that this very popular medium has been the subject of rapid technological evolution over the last few years.
and projections for the years to come. 3. 3. An example from the not for profit sector 3. 3. 1. Rationale The third case was selected due to the growing importance of the third sector in Brazil and worldwide.
but the sustainability of the project is expected to happen only in five years. This means that there is a need to establish clear priorities with deadlines
and to enable the community to monitor success during the next five years. This should stimulate motivation
like any other BSC, most often short-term (usually five years or less). Also, it does not allow disruptive
a content analysis of 26 years of strategic management research, International Journal of Management Reviews 10 (2008) 1 23.17 V. C. Prieto, M m.
Transition path For this case, a transition path has yet to develop due to its relatively short existence of three years at this point.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 72 provide frameworks for open innovation emerged in the last few years, e g.,
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
He has worked for more than 30 years in pioneering better understtandin and application of the ways that science and technology contribute to economic and social development, of the possibilities for managing research and technology more effectively,
7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.
In Denmark, the scan issues were used as input for the selection of prioritised research themes in a four-year cycle of research funding (see Figure 3). The scan data were used alongside the outcome of a public internet‘hearing'process that delivered an additional input
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
not only to understand better the disruptive transformations the creative content sector is likely to face in the years to come,
a prospective study dealing with the future evolution of the creative content industtries She has worked also for many years in the field of electronic communications policy and regulation at Europeea level.
He has worked for many years as a scientist and policy advisor on research, technology and innovation policy, both at national and European level.
He has had over 25 years of experience of federal government policy technology and innovation program development.
Over the years the program went through numerous changes, in the host organization (from National Reseaarc Council 2002 2004, to Privy council office 2005 2006, to Industry Canada 2007 2008.
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
which tends to focus on five years plus, as not readily applicable to the current agenda,
Emerging infectious diseases While severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza have attracted major attention in receen years, there have been other emerging infectious diseases (EID) which also present threats to humans and animals.
More new diseases have emerged in the past 20 years than in the previous 50 years with the majority of these originating in wildlife.
IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years.
and the US for a number of years followed by administration of industrria research and of government science and technology (S&t) in Australia.
A range of technologies was put to use to stop the virus. One year later,
After tracing back for two years, it was found that it was an unknown illness showing coldliik symptoms followed by flu-like symptoms and severe gastrointestinal distress, leading to death in 20%of the afflicted patients within two weeks.
this focus seems to have shifted over the years (Rosted, 2006), influenced by the altered role of the technology user as an important stakeholder.
In the same year, he started as a research enginnee at IBBT (Ghent University) in the field of interactive media.
and find it difficult to empathize with other users'lifestyyles e g. a 25-year-old reflects only on his daily Innovation-development process Prior-to-launch Post-launch R&d Opportunity identification Concept design Concept development
An example of one of the archetypes is Patricia (see Table 1). Patricia is 40 years old, a manager in a major international firm,
participants imagined they were in the year 2010 and were restricted therefore not by current legislation
For example, we selected user 10 (male, 33 years old) to expllai the results for an individual user.
and innovation at firm level have been launched in recent years. CTI is the government agency through which public funds are poured into the business sector.
-and-a-half years until the end of the reference period to realize some impact of these projects on their innovation performmanc (e g. introduce new products);
one-and-ahaal years is an adequate time lag between R&d and realization of R&d outcomes for most industries and for incremental innovations.
For the firms that compleete their subsidized R&d during the second half of the reference period, particularly in the year 2002, it is questionable,
Nehme, de Miranda Santos, Filho and Coelho provide a case study of the application of foresight by the Brazilian Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), over the past nine years.
In the last three years, CGEE has conducted some relevant national strategic foresight exercises, all involving ST&I policy,
considering existing challenges to Brazilian energy matrix in next 20 years Technologies for generation of electric energy, fuel supply and energy transmission and distribution, distributed generaatio and storage, planning
and expand its current position as the main public innovation agency in Brazil, over the next 15 years.
the government's multi-year budget plan; the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..
liuli66@tsinghua. edu. cn Few countries have increased their expenditure on r&d as rapidly as has China in recent years.
China, science policy, research, innovation. 1. Introduction and problem definition In recent years, there has been a rapidly growing interest in the development of science, technology and innovation (STI) in the People's republic of china.
The Ministry of S&t (MOST) plays a key role both through its responsibility for formulating S&t policy for example in the Medium and Long-term Plan and in the five-year plans for S&t development and as a key dispenser of research funds (Springut et al. 2011.
priorities are set within the framework of long-term (and five-year) plans, and medium-and long-term plans for S&t (MLP).
with the former guiding and providing an overarching framework for the latter (in their five-year plans).
but also on the allocation of resources into mission-driven activities (see Table 2). 4 Table 1. China's R&d programs Program Starting year Objective 6th Five-year
public research institutes and firms 7th Five-year Plan Creation of NSFC, 1986 National High-technology R&d Program (863 Program) 1986 Foster China's overall innovation capacity in high-tech sectors and enhance its international competitiveness Spark Program 1986
S&t achievements State Key and New Product Program 1988 Support new high-tech products for key industries 9th Five-year Plan National Program
with high value-added and foster international competitiveness 10th Five-Year Plan Agriculture S&t Transfer Fund 2001 Foster development of S&t achievements in agriculture
and diffusiio of agricultural technologies 11th Five-Year Plan Mega-science Program 2006 Promote four top scientific areas Mega-engineering Projects 2006 Promote technology
Created in the 10th Five-year Plan, its major goal is to address pressing S&t issues for national economic and social development. 5 Finally,
In recent years, we have seen an increasing orientation by the NSFC towards funding economic and socially relevant research
The five-year plans are the most obvious and structured tool of China's economic planning process in the sense that that it is clear to everyone
The mediumaan long-term plans are not as strictly regulated as the five-year plans since their time span has varied over the range 8 15 years.
The national S&t programs, such as the 863 Program, the 973 Program or the KIP, are created outside the temporal planning cycle in response to problems
which are implemennte outside the five-year or medium-and long-term planning cycle, the original impetus can be argued to have come from scientists,
which lasted approximately one year, were open to the public. The planning process was surrounded by relatively public and heated debates concerning the fundamental choice of development strategy to be pursued in the plan (see also Gu and Lundvall 2006.
The massive infusion of resources in recent years has been driven by a combination of motives: cultivating universities with global recognition,
with mediumaan long-term plans serving as umbrellas for sub-level planning exercises (five-year plans).
will play out in the future is a key issue for students of Chinese politics in the years to come.
Cao, C.,Simon, D. and Suttmeier, R. P. 2006)‘ China's 15-year science and technology plan',Physics Today, 59:38 45.
Schwaag Serger, S. and Breidne, M. 2007)‘ China's 15-year plan for scientific and technological development a critical assessment, Asia Policy, 4: 135 64.
Wan, G.,(ed.),2008) The 30 Years of China's Science and Technology Reform and Open-door policy.
'which has emerged only in the last ten years and is guided strongly by a‘set of'government policies.
we particularly single out the years 1945 and 1982 as milestones. 1945 was the year when Japan returned Taiwan to the Republic of china (ROC).
3 After 1945 Taiwan started to have an indepeenden history. The Taiwanese government announced its first biotechnology policy, the‘Eight Key Industries'in 1982.
In the years 1890 1945, Taiwan was colonized by Japan. After WORLD WAR II, in 1945, as a defeated nation, Japan was forced to return Taiwan to the government of the ROC.
In the same year, the central governmeen of the ROC was moved to Taipei, Taiwan. 4. The Chinese have used herbs as medicines and health food for five thousand years.
A rich knowledge of herbs was accumulated. The knowledge also spread to adjacent countries including Japan and Korea.
the Chinese have used only Western pharmacology for a hundred years. The traditional Chinese herbal medicines were usually compound prescriptions.
Lin, J.-Y. 1995)‘ The experiments and research of Taiwan's Agriculture Experiment Station within recent one hundred years'(.
cristianocagnin@gmail. com A strong research and innovation policy discourse has emerged in recent years around the need to address‘grand challenges',particularly at EU level.
technology assessment. 1. Introduction Recent years have seen a great deal of discussion on how science, technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
In recent years, institutional responses have included the setting up of horizonscanning centres and similar anticipattor structures (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
Disruptive events in recent years have made apparent critical weaknesses in the capacity to anticipate, prepare for and address comprehensively sudden events
FTA along these lines was need in of updates at regular intervals of three to five years
Networked approaches to FTA have been growing in importance for several years, and this trend is likely to continue as part of a comprehensive package of elements for dealing with transformative change,
In recent years, there has been a growing tendency among governments and businesses to invest less in individual large-scale foresight programmes and projects,
The International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957 8 was the first large-scale international field study.
This 13-year project coordinated by the US Department of energy and the National institutes of health aimed to discover all the estimated 20,000 25,000 human genes
During the early years of the HGP the Wellcome Trust (UK) became a major partner. Additional contributions came from Japan, France, Germany, China and others.
The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
the exercise settled for a 20-year time horizon, which happens to coincide with the centenary of the founding of ICSU in 1931.
how have changed things over the last 20 years and to what extent were anticipated these? In some ways, a lot has changed since 1990, e g. the internet,
Gather perspectiive on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years (from individuals in ICSU's membership, bodies,
During Phase 1, perspectives were gathered on potential drivers of international science over the next 20 years.
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
which trends over the next 20 years are more or less clear at least in their direction of evolution, if not in their precise impacts, as follows:.
and presented as a‘general context'to developments over the coming 20 years. In addition, a further 13 key drivers, for which trends are much more uncertain,
offer four distinct, yet plausible images of the future‘world order'and of international science cooperation 20 years from now.
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
a gathering of the ICSU‘family'of member organisations that occurs every three years. Overall, the exercise was viewed favourabbl as a way of positioning
In recent years, roadmapping has been applied increasingly as an instrument of strategy-making (Blackwell et al. 2008.
In this case, the long-term stands for a period of over 25 years. Secondly, TM accentuates the interrelatedness of societal and technological systems and the multiplicity of actors.
Commissioned by the Victorian government, the purpose of the Victoria Technology roadmap was to build a synthesizing picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, up until the year 2020.
targeted towards the year 2020, was the following: Victoria is sophisticated a market for green and intelligent buildings.
The long-term vision, targeted towards the year 2025, for the roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT was the following:
joint programming. 1. Introduction Science and scientists have crossed the national borders of individual states for many years.
To this end, longer-term strategic requirements with a 10 5 year outlook are identified in a systematic way, building on knowledge about future aspects of animal disease develoopmen in Europe and the world,
as in The netherlands and the UK, important issues were identified that started causing severe damage in two to three years (van Rij 2010b.
On the other hand, horizon scans in The netherlands and UK had spotted already the financial crisis two years before it started.
This process is repeated every three years (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In order to differentiate from the rather technologydriive processes of the past,
All global challenges are valid for a longer term (more than 20 years, some even say more than 50 years).
Some global challenges have multiple dimensions, so that:..the current government systems are incapable of tackling current and future global interconnected challenges.
Megatrends have a half-life of at least 50 years, are resistant to set-backs and show impacts in all areas of the lives of human beings.
For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
A needs-oriented approach and cross-institute problem-solving should open up new contract research markets in a 3 7 year perspective,
i e. an actual market perspective of 5 10 years. The process had a first top-down part, in
The most convincing proposals received substantial funding for three years. A second round of calls was successful
There are three years to execute the projects. In the end, a‘result'has to be presented. The jury selected five convincing projects addressing three Fraunhofer challenges:.
A four-year strategic plan is defined in an interactive manner with the ministries. The plan fixes the direction for the coming years.
The theme lines of the strategy plan are developed then in top-down processes. In addition, TNO has‘enabling technologies'programmes..
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