| Alternative approach (9) |  |
| Approach (1095) | |
| Evolutionary approach (9) | |
| Forward-looking approach (4) | |
| Holistic approach (8) | |
| Inductive approach (13) | |
| Methodological approach (59) | |
| New approach (60) | |
| Promising approach (6) | |
| Qualitative approach (23) | |
| Quantitative approach (24) | |
These approaches offered further refinement and support to the development of robustness in spite of added complexities in implementation.
and the need to adopt a systemic approach to integrating the context, content and process. 3. Models
This approach should provide enhancement to models in the future. The other major discussion focussed on experts,
The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.
In the discussion it was pointed out that the increasing complexity of the strategic approaches called for a more complex form of foresight.
and challenges related to methods and approaches to improve the value and utility of FTA. Among the methodological issues that could be tackled to improve the FTA field
TA must in some cases revisit its approaches and toolbox of techniques to ensure that outcomes can be taken up in the decision-making process.
This requires first of all that these approaches are based on and reflect an appropriate understanding of the changing characteristics of innovation and decision-making.
or at least enable to think out of the box about qualitatively different approaches and strategies. The purpose is to develop new things,
Conventional forecasting approaches with their aim of predicting the future were based on a linear understanding of processes of socio-technical change that is simply an inappropriate representation of reality and thus misleading rather than enlightening with respect to informing decisions.
we suggest an approach to forward-looking decision support that addresses the aforementioned shortcomings of conventional foresight. Under the headline of Adaptive foresight (AF) it combines elements from the foresight and adaptive planning traditions.
Based on this realisation, any approach to policy or business strategy based on the idea of early identification of winners must be subject to serious doubts.
environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,
They also relied largely on a predictive approach and combined it with the idea of being able to secure through national policy a leading edge in selected technologies 10.
also earlier technology forecasting approaches like the large Delphi studies introduced in Japan in the early seventies
it is our contention that in all three respects it is particularly useful to draw on insights from adaptive planning (AP). This approach,
one is led to an approach that first tries carefully to map available decision options as well as possible future developments.
Early frameworks for strategic planning build on a structural approach: Typically a handful of alternative structures a type of visionary scenarios are constructed
In a sequential planning exercise the typical approach is to try to construct a first-period structure that is 11 Sometimes an adaptive option can be inherent in an operational asset. 470 E. A. Eriksson,
While this is a natural approach, e g. when considering the development of a highly integrated production facility like a steel plant,
This suggests an approach more inspired by portfolio selection in financial economics. However, it must be kept in mind that despite advances in modularity,
14 where the complex forecasting and assessment type of approach initially 12 Dixit and Pindyck 23 and Copeland and Antikarov 24 have prepared two very useful texts on real options theory. 13 See for instance the emphasis put on learning processes in protected spaces which is core to the approaches of Strategic
Niche Management 25 and Transition Management 26.14 FANTASIE Forecasting and Assessment of New Transport Technologies and Systems and their Impact on the Environment,
the first two projects designed according to an embryonic version of the AF approach were ICTRANS16 and the Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight. 17 Also the priority-setting approach of the EU-project FISTERA adopted elements
experiences were made with Strategic Niche Management19 and Transition Management20 as approaches to devise forward-looking policy strategies for long-term transformations of infrastructure and sectoral innovation systems towards sustainability.
Conventional foresight approaches have tended to stress the ability to shape the future by initiating participatory processes involving key actors,
and 2005 36.19 This approach was developed in the context of an EU-funded project SNM-T. See for instance 37,25,
38.20 Experiences with the approach of Transition Management have been made in Austria and in particular in The netherlands 39,26, 40.21 At the moment,
Therefore, to help disseminate the approach this section is devoted to a process outline. To serve this purpose the outline strives to be as hands-on as is possible within the limited space available. 22 3. 2. 1. Relationship to clients
More normatively oriented, functional innovation systems approaches take a different stance on innovation system analysis 46.25 The methodology outlined in this section is largely based on the so called Shell/GBN tradition 47.
This approach is useful because it helps capture the room for manoeuver available to move towards a collective vision,
One of the main difficulties of this kind of strategic approach to policy-making consists of the fact that all actors involved are autonomous
Further development of the approach is needed particularly in the following three respects: The AF approach as outlined in this paper is based on experience from small developed countries.
More specific and differentiated guidelines are needed that build on a broader range of practical experiences with the AF approach. 479 E. A. Eriksson,
The strength of AF could be enhanced further by building where appropriate on new modelling approaches.
but the financial resources necessary for this approach are rarely available in the settings we are used to working in We also tend to prefer a larger role for verbal reasoning as opposed to mathematical modelling
Another issue is bringing the real options approach to bear at more than just the conceptual level.
One implication of this is the tendency to use forecasts i e. a predicate, rather than an explorative approach to future uncertainties.
an integral approach, foresight, J. Futures Stud. Strateg. Think. Pol. 3 (6)( 2001) 533 551.17 J. Gavigan, F. Scapolo, M. Keenan,
Systems Approaches and Their Application: Examples from Sweden, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003.20 B. Schwarz, K c. Bowen,
The Approach of Strategic Niche Management, Spon Press, London, 2002.26 R. Kemp, J. Rotmans, The management of the co-evolution of technical
the approach of strategic niche management, in: M. Weber, J. Hemmelskamp (Eds. Towards Environmental Innovation systems, Springer, Berlin, 2005.39 K. M. Weber, K. Kubeczko, K.-H. Leitner, K. Whitelegg,
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified.
First, an approach is presented which makes use of science and technology indicators and enables the identification of possible fields
Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations. Finally the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed
More evidence-based approaches to the assessment of regulatory quality allow a review of the effectiveness of policy tools used in practice
For over twenty years, the so-called New approach has been the most prominent and successful approach to link standardisation and regulatory policy.
and tries to address especially approaches which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory action,
Although these approaches largely failed, due to the inbuilt simplification of the actual dynamics of social, economic and technological developments, some studies nevertheless provoked a lively discussion about the future 14
In addition, we developed methodologies and approaches which represent revisions or adjustments of existing foresight methodologies, but also completely new approaches to identify ex ante major future challenges for regulatory policies.
matching policy instruments and methodologies Innovation surveys Econometric models Control group approaches Cost benefit analysis Expert panels/peer review Field/case studies Network analysis Foresight/Technology assessment
indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology
The scope of science-and technology-based indicator approaches is certainly in detecting possible fields
However, the identification of specific regulatory issues and even solutions cannot be achieved by applying simple indicator-based approaches.
The survey approach by Blum et al. was replicated for Denmark, integrating also service companies 31. This leads us to the studies on standards focusing on services or service companies.
A systematic and strategic approach to develop standards for the service sector was initiated in Germany in the year 2000 with a large project Service Standards for Global Markets funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research 34.
only Blind 37 applied a factor analysis approach to determine groups of service aspects relevant for standardisation,
and lead to representative results, the data can be combined with indicator-based approaches representing the universe in science and technology.
Furthermore, the small-scale Delphi survey focusing on the future demand for standards in the ICT area confirmed the general applicability of this approach,
Delphi and even simulation approaches are rather costly and time-consuming, involving numerous experts. They require a very careful performance of the often multi-stage methodological processes.
Nevertheless, there is a tendency to overburden certain approaches, like Delphi surveys, which may damage their acceptance.
Simple quantitative approaches are not sufficient. However, the databases provide further information about 512 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 regulation-relevant contents, like health,
Otherwise, this approach produces rather biased assessments. The same is true for Delphi surveys. Consequently, the combination of indicator-based approaches,
which allow at least the identification of stakeholders in science and technology working both in research institutes
and to integrate them into survey and Delphi approaches. The same is true for Table 3 Overview
and technology indicators combined with qualitative data Systematic approach Only quantitative data is not sufficient to detect emerging fields of regulation Comparison across technologies,
and weaknesses of using this approach to identify future trends in science and technology. In addition
and a long-lasting process of convincing stakeholders about the need and effectiveness of such approaches are required.
A first approach was launched in Germany by a study to identify future themes for standardisation based on the negative experiences in the case of nanotechnology,
The new developed systematic approach to identify future fields for standardisation combines both an indicator-based approach with a Delphi exercise
FTA is used here as an umbrella term for similar forward-looking and/or interactive characteristics of TA approaches.
and outlook for the multi-path mapping approach. 8 Robust in the sense that it is informed by knowledge of path dynamics of new
They combine many components and approaches from the macro-scale laboratory equivalent: sample preparation, pretreattment analysis, manipulation and removal. 520 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538
Of particular interest for us, are the two main foci of the approach:(1) acknowledging mindful deviation as part of the emerging processes,
and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 however can use different approaches and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram.
which constrain lateral freedom (at a certain point it will be difficult for SMES to switch to another approach)
On the other hand, advantages of such an approach are that new innovations will be occurring within the cluster
and further developments of the MPM-1 approach is an ongoing task. A very concrete impact on strategy articulation comes from one of the participants
towards a contingency approach, Int. J. Technol. Manag. 32 (3 4)( 2005) 388 407.535 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538
Developing an Integrated Policy Approach to Science, Technology, Risk and the Environment, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005, pp. 45 66.24 S. K. Kassicieh, S. T. Walsh
Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning
The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995. Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his undergraduate and master's degree in Physics and Space S&t at the University of Leicester (UK) and Universität Siegen (Germany.
Table 1 groups together many of the reported objectives and impacts associated with foresight exercises under the headings of‘intermediate'and‘lower level'goals. 5. Approach for developing an impact assessment framework It is possible
Typically, logic model approaches start with specific programme goals and objectives and attempt to identify paths to potential goal attainment by treating foresight programmes as systems comprised of a number of basic elements, namely context, actors, processes
This approach Fig. 2. Objectives hierarchy for foresight exercises contributing to a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,
An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the foresight system. b: An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the wider environment. 547 E. Amanatidou,
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt
Fig. 3a demonstrates how the approach starts from the inner cycle in the diagram, focusing first on impacts before moving‘outwards'(or‘backwards')towards the basic elements of the foresight system.
The raised awareness of the need for consensus-building approaches in long-term vision-setting exercises in order to ensure the sustainability of resultant polices was acknowledged as another unforeseen impact of the exercise.
Molina 28 studied networks and alignments in large-scale European projects using the‘socio-technical constituencies'12 approach of organisational behaviour theory.
This model can then direct the development of a common impact assessment framework based on the‘logic model'approach.
Fig. 5 demonstrates the feasibility of this approach. However given the diverse nature of the impact areas in question, a finer level of analysis needs to be applied to the different areas of the impact assessment framework.
the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
This approach has three major shortcomings:(i) the broader socioeconomic systems, in which universities operate, are addressed not in these analyses,
and finally the new methods, approaches and norms to organise, manage, validate, legitimate and evaluate research activities.
a striking example of that approach is the recent EU Green Paper on the European research area 3. Georghiou
This approach has major shortcomings, as three important fact (or) s cannot be considered in these exercises.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 This is a sort of‘top-down'approach, and hence a number of‘micro-level'factors might be missing,
as well as distinct viewpoints and approaches so as to enrich the discussion and analysis. Further, the shared visions and policy recommendations, stemming from the dialogue among participants,
If this approach proves to be useful, the aspects of education activities can easily be added. 10 7 Foresight processes (programmes, projects,
New methods, approaches, and norms are likely to be applied when organising, managing, validating, legitimating, and evaluating research activities.
i) different approaches/perspective need to be taken into account when contemplating about the future;(ii) the links, communication, interactions,
or a mixed approach is taken. The use of the recommendations e g. strategy formation for a specific university, strategies for the higher education sector in a region, a country or the EU is up to the decision-makers.
As already argued, this paper takes the latter approach, and thus first visions are devised on the EU as a whole.
and sub-national regional level is skipped in either approach, given the huge diversity of the national (regional) education systems.
teaching and research approaches, as well as their organisational structures, managerial practices and 31 A closely related question is
are considered in 21.575 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The methods, approaches,
this approach can be satisfactory for strategy building. Given the fundamental changes occurring in the surroundings of universities,
This approach has a main drawback: given its complexity, it can be rather demanding, especially in terms of time needed for background analyses and then discussions among the participants.
Finally, for disciples of innovation studies, this approach offer three advantages, as opposed to the case
and thus it is recommended to use this particular approach to underpin strategies for universities. By definition, foresight is a participatory process
as well as distinct viewpoints and approaches of the major stakeholders involved in these strategic dialogues, enrich the prospective discussion
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006 available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/anchor/Higheredanchorpaper. pdf. 10 G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, G. Silverberg, L
and Approaches in Technology and Innovation policy, STI Review, No. 22,1998. 16 OECD, Benchmarking Industry science Relationships, OECD, Paris, 2002.17 W. Polt, C. Rammer, H. Gassler, A. Schibany,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29 september 2006, available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,
adopt and engage novel approaches that will address innovation challenges and change the outlook of many policy makers;
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.10.004 new power of IT and network analytical approaches, but it also directly aims its messages at policy makers responsible for designing more effective strategies for the deployment of public funds for R&d and those responsible for forecasting where and how to do this no small task indeed!
because they are concerned also with the application of novel and adapted FTA TOOLS and approaches. The excellent paper of Störmer et al.
and interplay between FTA and RA approaches is considered a necessity at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland for being truly innovative
another Finnish team, bring this novel focus on tools further into the interface with policy approaches in their timely paper on the Role of Technology barometer in Assessing Past and Future development of National Innovation system.
The existence of the Technology barometer is itself a provocative approach to innovation policy futures. From Germany
Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,
One approach to the management of technological uncertainty has been to initiate the technological forecasting process only once a dominant design has emerged 3. Once a dominant design has been selected,
Trend extrapolation approaches, for instance, are based on tracking the emergence of new technologies only once a dominant design is secured 4. This solution of tracking dominant designs neglects some of the fundamental uncertainty associated with technological evolution.
such as the approach suggested here, may contribute to the process and management of radical innovation 17,18.
The analytical methods for this approach have emerged from scientometrics, machine learning, graph theory and complexity studies. Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20.
Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.
This approach may demand an unrealistic level of unanimity about the status and relatedness of specific knowledge claims. 7. Conclusions The paper concludes that the proposed method,
Despite the apparent promise of this approach, the method has only been tried on a single case with limited validation.
of Japan) and trial approaches for technology convergence with the methodology of technology roadmapping, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, Portland, Oregon:
A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach, Chapman & Hall, 2002.26 J. J. Garrett, AJAX: A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap
and tools like modeling tools, real option approaches and decision analysis. However, these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding
author. Eawag P o box 611, CH 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland. Tel.:++41 44 823 56 73; fax:+
& Social Change Foresight has its strengths in addressing broad ranges of future conditions by adopting participatory and discursive approaches.
Such a methodological framework is likely to depart in style and content from the currently dominant forms of strategic decision making in infrastructure sectors 5. While in conventional approaches
A similar approach has been presented by Dominguez et al. 2. They utilize infrastructure foresight to identify technological and organizational capability deficits.
a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.
While the earlier approaches tended to be techno-deterministic, the later applications more explicitly address the co-evolution of technology and society 19.
Cagnin and Keenan 19 dub this type of approach as mode 2 foresight that allows the consideration of fundamental changes in paradigms
Linstone's multiple perspectives approach 35 argues for the enrichment of the traditional technical system's analysis with organizational and personal perspectives.
Framing a strong exploratory approach to strategic planning Based on these experiences, we may now frame the problem of informing strategic infrastructure planning by foresight as follows:
Given that conventional planning approaches are optimized for blinding out uncertainties in contexts, system alternatives and value considerations,
Via the exploratory approach, the amount of uncertainty considered will be increased:(1) opening critical context developments,(2) broadening the range of analyzed system alternatives,(3) using sustainability criteria
In particular, we expect that this approach enables decision makers to systematically ponder a broader spectrum of system alternatives (especially those including development options outside the dominant socio-technical regime),
This approach is conceived to provide orientation, target, and action knowledge 55 to the decision makers and render the major trade-offs that could appear over the lifetime of an infrastructure transparently.
Two further case studies implementing the RIF approach were carried out in Switzerland: one in a rural area with an urgent need for investment in an old treatment plant.
and applied an explorative oriented approach to strategic decision making in infrastructure planning. We argued that due to the long life times of key technical components of these sectors
the insights gained by this approach were appreciated highly by the involved decision makers, despite the high level of complexity that became apparent in certain process phases.
Furthermore, RIF offers an approach to explore disruptive alternatives in the mode 2 foresight concept.
A potential benefit of such an approach would be that regional development strategies could be tackled in a more encompassing way.
The contribution of discursive approaches in the urban water sector. Water Policy (submitted for publication.
Human choice and climate change resources and technology, Battelle Press, Columbus, 1998.13 M. S. Jørgensen, U. Jørgensen, C. Clausen, The social shaping approach to technology foresight
an approach to develop future potentials, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 59 (2)( 1998) 111 130.64 A. Fink, O. Schlake, A. Siebe, Erfolg durch Szenario-Management:
Technology assessment (TA) has ingredients of both of these approaches the main emphasis being balanced in evaluation of the short-and long-term impacts of new technologies.
All these future-oriented approaches try to illustrate and manage the future in an explicit and systematic way by identifying,
1) VTT is striving for a more integrated approach in developing its FTA competences and services,
Development of an integrated approach that combines the strengths of FTA and risk assessment traditions is not,
stressing the need for a flexible, integrative approach. The authors'involvement in technology assessments studies commissioned by the Parliament of Finland,
and positions these projects according to important foresight design dimensions. o Section 4 paves the way towards a modular and integrative approach by discussing the common and complementary features of risk assessment
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
Altogether, a substantial shift away from the fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches has taken place in all FTA areas.
and problem-driven approaches are taken 1. It is stressed also that it is important to see technology as part of a whole technological and societal system 11.
In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened. Approaches like inherent safety 26 in process design as well as resilience engineering 27 in process operating address the complex nature of industrial process.
It has been understood that process safety is not a creation of a component by component study.
This approach has raised recently interest in the risk management field. Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.
The sociological approach to organisational management suggests that vulnerabilities are part of the natural logics of the corporate life 39
economics and technology, applying big amount of creative brainstorming approaches ending to two potential scenarios.
Risk map/risk taxonomy is used in the INNORISK approach as a link between the fuzzy front end
and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment
especially in terms of methodological variety which is large in both approaches. Hazard/risk estimation and evaluation phases,
Exclusive stakeholder engagement o Extensive stakeholder engagement refers to the approach in which the actual number of participants is high,
Risk assessment methods are fixed traditionally approaches, e g. focused on a certain industrial plant or specific chemical or event (Fig. 5). They typically are short-term studies,
Fig. 5 also shows that the assessment of new emerging risks demands longer time-frame and a more contingent examination approach.
and networking approach of different expert analyses. Since future and risks are always ontologically unknown to us,
and discussed the attempts to integrate these two approaches. As a result, it has been discovered that both approaches seek to manage the uncertainty of potential futures,
and to create knowledge to help decision making in defining management strategies concerning the changes the future may cause.
There is, therefore, a common ground shared by both approaches. Common ground is found also methodologically; models, workshops, brainstorms, interviews,
literature reviews and other such methods are used in both approaches. However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase.
Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.
the future risk assessment shows up as a methodology that should increasingly adapt supplementary elements from many different approaches such as FTA.
expert workshops and interviews Development and future expectations of the approach New approaches like inherent safety and resilience engineering address the complex nature of industrial processes.
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards broader concerns including the whole innovation process with its environmental, social and economic perspectives.
From fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches. 1174 R. Koivisto et al./
Technology assessment for managers, Routledge, London, 1998.12 R. Fairman, C. D. Mead, P. W. Williams, Environmental risk assessment approaches, experience and information sources, European Environment
A User-friendly Approach, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, New york, 1991.27 E. Hollnagel, Resilience the challenge of the unstable, in:
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