Futures methodology issues 1. Introduction There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future.
For example, the Internet has made participatory approaches among geographically dispersed people practical. Just forty years ago, computers were not much of a factor in futures research.
but a whole new set of approaches to planning and systems management need to be invented.
Despite the vast amount of interest in the Nordic innovation policy during the last decade, even this approach may have its pitfalls.
On the other hand, scientific approach as such creates a set of boundary conditions in order to avoid compromising too much of the scientific validity of the concept.
This approach seeks to combine evaluative ex-ante impact assessment risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence.
of Technology policy, the Manufuture Secretariat Germany of the German Verband deutscher Maschinen-und Anlagenbauer (VDMA) supported the approach.
The process linked both foresight and monitoring in its integrated approach. The process had impacts along the six functions of Foresight for policy-making that recently emerged in the Foresight debate (informing policy,
The process was considered to be the major approach of a German ministry in science and technology foresight.
This search was combined with a bibliometric approach. Literature was analysed. Experts were identified and interviewed in order to find the most promising topics in research and technology for the next 10 to 15 years or even further in the future.
and simulation require multidisciplinary approaches. To work out the similarities in different application may be a first step to adapt the instruments and tools in other disciplines so that in the future even in technical and social science contexts,
This is not a linear approach of searching for new topics and then delivering a result, but more for interconnectivities and the loops inbetwween Different departments of the BMBF as well as external persons are consulted
because scenarios provide a potentially very attractive approach to addressing uncertainty and complexity. Furthermore, the focus of our review was on literature that explicitly attempts to evaluate scenario planning approaches,
including comparative studies of the strengths and weaknesses of several different exercises and assessments of the impacts scenario planning approaches can have on decision-making processes Fig. 1. Forms of scenario-based decision support. 1200 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 and organisational performance. To identify relevant literature a number of experts were asked for suggestions.
For instance, deductive approaches to scenario development are used commonly. They usually rank driving forces, select the two most important driving forces
Building scenarios from trends rather than key driving forces might reduce the combinations that normally become excluded in the scenario axis approach, because of potential inconsistencies.
Inductive approaches, in opposition to deductive approaches, are guided not by a structuring Framework scenarios rather evolve by brainstorming events and spinning larger stories around these events.
triggering a stronger use of deductive approaches that require less time, seem more logical and easier to communicate.
However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.
Therefore it seems consequential to try to restrict the use of an approach that by its very nature aims at challenging these core aspects
Discussions pointed to recent approaches to strengthen capacities for scenario planning and foresight within governments. Examples include:
or a cross-sector approach can be used. Examples can be found for all categories and sometimes practice covers more than one dimension.
and it is based on a cross-sectoral approach. On the other hand, the strategy unit in the Department for Agriculture in The netherlands is an example for an actor in charge of long-term sectoral analysis. A number of other procedural options can be utilized to strengthen the role of scenario planning.
different ex-ante evaluations procedures have been integrated into one regulatory policy appraisal approach to improve the quality of regulation,
a more systematic debate around options for the better institutional embedding of those approaches is still largely missing 12.
However, there is no uniform approach as diverging political and administrative cultures as well as overall traditions and styles of policy-making and administration will heavily influence the design of institutional arrangements.
whether it more advisable to go for a centralized approach, with a central unit in charge of coordinating other departmental units,
or a rather decentralized approach, with departmental units coordinating themselves. Whether specific foresight units should be located physically within departments for the environment
and there is no standard approach towards its institutionalization within government and public administration. This is not only natural in a booming field
but there will also never be a standard approach. Long-term thinking does not have a uniform relationship with strategy and policy-making.
relevance and legitimacy of the approach will require more than methodological refinements. More stable institutional settings are needed to experiment with flexible process formats that can adapt analytical efforts to specific information needs and conflict constellations.
The Prima Approach to Decision support, Springer, Berlin, 2000.25 United states Commission on National Security in the 21st century, New world Coming:
The underlying philosophy is of‘satisficing'as often the time scale for thework involved precludes any other approach.
Practical experiments to widen participation in Foresight studies vary from extensions of conventional approaches to entirely new ones.
The approach of CSH recognises that various stakeholders in society may see situations 14 in radically different ways because different stakeholder values and behavioural characteristics lead to different boundary judgements.
it should be remembered that systems thinking grew out of von Bertalanffy's recognition of the paucity of the reductionist approach to problem solving related to living systems.
In this way Inclusive foresight will involve fundamental reforms and changes in its current social approach. Ulrich 17 19 and more recently Dempster in her description of sympoiesis 20 extended systems thinking to provide a better understanding of the issues associated with determining system boundaries and the roles of values associated with the implementation and measurement of practical results.
A Management Science Approach, John Wiley, 2001.16 Sir G. Vickers, Appreciative behaviour, Acta Psychologica 21 (1963) 274 293.17 W. Ulrich, The design
This approach is developed as a support tool for Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA), see Box 1, and incorporates what we call endogenous futures into scenarios
Co-evolutionary scenarios were developed as a theory-informed approach to capture the complexities of innovation journeys
Robinson and Propp made a first step through exploring path dynamics 6 They developed a multi-path mapping approach
It is complementary to the widely used value chain approach, which focuses on stabilised chains of product development.
often advocating a precautionary approach (cf. Principles of Oversight) up to a moratorium (cf. ETC-Group and others.
Another approach would be to shift the focus of strategy articulation away from relying on prediction in its strictest sense,
only its odds 5 then this implies a shift from deterministic approaches to foresight and strategy towards the creation of circumstances and conditions which enhance the chance of success. Good preparation
Proliferation of engagement/communication approaches at the micro-level allows justification of societal awareness as a strategy for ensuring societal acceptance.
By 2012, health care authorities would not certify the approach without clinical testing. This leads to precaution by health insurance companies to cover the procedure.
and leads to instrumentalist approaches being used when engagement is operationalised for R&d activities. This approach to engagement stems from an anticipation by nanotech developers of public friction
which leads to enlightenment and legitimisation strategies. Nanodiablog provides a space for other actors to shape the context from instrumental to constructive criticism (whistle blowers have a space to proclaim
The co-evolution of regulatory approaches and technology options was discussed also throughout the workshop, although not directly quoted in the discussions,
This can be seen as a stakeholder endorsement of the approach (which is an important indicator how well workshops like these are working.
but important, contribution to this family by combining concentric and multilevel approaches through emphasizing co-evolution.
te Kulve's work on Food Packaging for a thorough description of this approach 2. Also see the work of Alireza Parandian,
Also the multilevel approach similar to 2 was used in one of the Frontiers Constructive TA exercises on the drug delivery sector,
His Phd manuscript focuses on challenges for putting Constructive TA type approaches into practice, through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.
Business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges. Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
and of the range of methods and systematic approaches existing in the strategy field. With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,
the methods and approaches used in foresight activities have their basis in the academic discipline of strategy.
and thinking on methods and approaches. The COST A22 Action on Foresight methodologies and the appearance of several journals dedicated to this area are just a few indicators of this.
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
but newer approaches do not totally replace older approaches: different approaches to foresight and strategy coexist.
There exists no clear and generally accepted distinction between foresight and strategy, but it seems generally accepted Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
Both the environment-scanning and competence-based approaches are based on the assumption that rational-analytical processes are used in strategic decision-making.
The methods used in this approach to strategy formulation are, among others, stakeholder analyses, networks, negotiations, political games, alliances and power bases in expertise (i e. academic reputation.
Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
The resource-based approach does not replace analyses of an organisation's strateggi environment, but supplements these by analysing internal competencies.
Upward Government minister, parliamentary politicians Downward Programme Management system operators (PSO actors) Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Approaches Key scope Science
and approaches to strategy exist concurrrentl among the participants in the cases studied, and this is especially true for the Technical research Council.
There is no doubt that a more rational-analytical approach is appealing, especially for technical research councils. In reality, however, the processes involve a strong element of power play and politicca negotiation.
In The approach to and the potential for new technology foresight, The Proceedings of an International Conference on Technology foresight, Tokyo, Japan. http://www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077oe
The approach used is set out in Figure 2 and is described briefly below. In the first part of Phase 1 an initial‘diagnostic'step focused on mapping the Luxembourg research landscape.
A two-pronged approach emerged: first, to call on the public research institutes to submit ideas for new research programmes;
on the understanding that it would provide a more participative (involving knowledge users as well as producers) and future-oriented (visionary) approach to identifying topic areas suitable for new FNR programmes.
Proposing this broad perspective rightly anticipated problems that would arise with any approach that sought only to identify thematic priorities without taking into account structural factors.
'In a coordinated approach with other elements8 of public policy, FNR Foresight was to provide the basis:
These adaptations in approach and scope were sometimes misunderstood by the FNR Board and led also to a considerable amount of confusion in the research community.
Along with a shift in approach came a host of new challenges that typically characterise group work.
government policies in relation to research and technology had predominantly been inspired by an approach that today is labelled often as‘picking winners':
This‘hands off'approach has evolved subsequently into what is called nowadays the systems approach to research,
technology and innovation, which not only deals with framework conditions, but also with the institutional and structural settings of innovation systems (Dosi 1988;
Similar to this shift in approaches to innovation processes, there has been a shift in the conceptual understanding of policy processes.
In line with this consensus-oriented approach, dissenting views were excluded either or debated until a formulation was found that could be accepted by all participants.
an approach that rewards crosscutting and horizontal initiatives. The foresight and strategy process also fulfilled policy facilitating functions,
and areas of policy action requiring a better networked approach, both within local government and beyond (e g. innovationorieente procurement), were addressed in the process,
or may be impacted by a given approach to policy making, as for example within the areas of environmental regulation or energy conservation.
as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
Building on these arguments Jenssen (2007) advocates a more cautious approach to the importance of foresight as a strateggi tool for policy
The social part of the municipality plan is characterised by long-term planning including a broad social approach and substantiation of those visions and goals
and the approach proposed within inclusive foresiigh as giving room to lay knowledge and inclusive, non-expert participation.
a discursive approach. Forum Qualitative Sozialforschung 4, no. 2. http://www. qualitative-research. net/index. php/fqs/article/view/718 Cornish, E. 2004.
Paper presennte at the proceedings of international conference on Technology foresight the approach to and potential for new technology foresight.
theoretical approaches and educational initiatives. Journal of Social issues 58, no. 3: 411 27. Thomas, H. 1994.
Stagegaat approaches set forth explicit decisions to be sequenced toward particular ends (e g.,, new product development. Furthermore, we see organizations going the next step to require specific analyses and outputs at each stage.
They can serve tremendously in showing others how to search using Boolean and other approaches,
Certainly, this btech miningq approach to quick technology analyses does not equally affect all forms of FTA.
These draw on both statistical and artificial intelligence approaches. Advanced entity extraction, query refinement, and elucidation of relationships based on text co-occurrence patterns can extend QTIP possibilities.
Its novelty lies in the approach to technology analyses in support of technology management. To fully realize QTIP potential requires significant process management change:!
This was partly because the panel approach, together with the tight schedule, placed constraints on the number of participants that could be invited;
Along this attribute, Finnsight was closer to the consensual approach. To some extent, this was
again, represented a further step towards distilling consensual messages from the panel reports. 4. 4. Fixed vs autonomous management Fixed management can be characterised as a centralised approach where the scope
In contrast, autonomous management refers to more openennde processes that are intermediated by the foresight co-ordinators (cf. the Core group in Finnsight) who facilitate relatively autonomous participant-led activities in the work of expert panels or other approaches (Salo
This approach obviated the need to‘feed'the panels with background documentation which would have necessitated uneasy choices as to
In view of positive experiences, we believe that analogous approaches may be useful also in other contexts where expert panels are required to generate coherent and comprehensive foresight results in the presence of tight timeframes and high expectations.
and approaches that had matured and developed separately. A variety of antecedents could be detected for this initiative.
and synthesise the approaches that in Europe at least are called strategic intelligence 6, and which here operated under the FTA banner and, on the other hand,
if not all of the approaches listed above. Certainly foresight papers have dominated numerically but the need to recognise the traditions of technology assessment,
By the time of the second conference, the‘‘impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making''had become the core theme
and that for wider purposes a dual definition of foresight as a broader umbrella and as a specific family of approaches will persist.
or use of these approaches to look at an entire research and innovation system. FTA APPROACHES are locked also in a spiral of co-evolution with research and innovation policy,
and practice which lead them to deploy a hybrid methodological framework involving tailored approaches for specific purposes
They argue that this tailored approach should be adopted in the development of the European research area. Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards recognition of broader concerns encompassing the entire innovation system including societal perspectives.
These mapped a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach in many countries across a wide range of challenges.
The pressing need to mobilise resources around societal challenges exposes the limitations of technocratic approaches
and emphasises the need for the kind of participatory approaches that foresight in particular can offer. Tailored approaches are needed that reflect the varied and complex structures of sectors
and those who hold a stake in crosscutting themes. Methods in turn need to manage the complex knowledge flows that are entailed.
Introduction The paper presents an approach at improving the impact of foresight by systematically taking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&i) domains when designing a Foresight exercise.
and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives.
, academic debate and mutual learning among both academics and practitioners within project contexts such as Forlearn, 6 Costa22, 7 Forsociety8 and intense exchange with other approaches such as futures studies
evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
Foresight practitioners do now deploy hybrid methodological frameworks where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to each specific purpose and context.
The famous‘‘Foresight generations''4 are viewed no more as mutually exclusive but as complementary approaches. Explorative and normative elements are combined as well as wide collective dialogue
and evaluation to tailor approaches to policy objectives (8, Forsociety). In order to improve Foresight impact on policy strategy building it has been proposed to complement collective Foresight processes with a strategic counselling phase where the outcomes are translated into strategic choices 9. To sum up,
it seems that Foresight has been evolving from a loose collection of approaches to a complex integrated framework with a number of levers for adaptation to specific purposes and contexts and gradually,
The sectoral systems of innovation approach which is focussing on the characteristics of knowledge production has been complemented by analysis of the properties of application domains
In all these approaches to characterising innovation regimes the knowledge base plays a crucial role.‘‘‘‘Central to the systems approach is the view that the key resource of a firm,
For some time now it has been suggested that insights from innovation systems research on the systemic nature of knowledge production should be taken into account by R&i policy to better target its instruments and approaches 16.
Recently also political science approaches have been advocating the idea that innovation in the environment of the political system needs a corresponding increase in complexity of the political system or
Such approaches see‘congruence 'or‘homology'of structures as necessary in order to fulfil the function of government,
however, decrease the diversity of options that could challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs 29
Outcomes from both approaches could need to be fed into the strategic orientation and programming arena by a stronger institutional steering on EU level. 5. 2. The case of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (N&n) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (N&n) are seen as the‘top-down'miniaturisation movement of three domains:
A number of Recent foresight approaches are currently heading in this direction. Examples are the EU FP6 Nanologue project14 where different products for different socio-technical scenarios were envisaged or the strategy articulation workshops in the framework of the Dutch Nanoned initiative (e g. 49 51.
a network analytical approach, in: Presentation at the Conference‘‘Knowledge for Growth: European Strategies in Global economy'',Toulouse, July 7 9, 2008.46 B. Kahane, A. Delemarle, L. Villard, P. Lare'do, Knowledge dynamics and agglomeration phenomena:
which successful approaches and ideas from the past discourage employees from innovation. Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers.
A gradual awareness and general agreement for moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches is giving foresight an enhanced role in policy design tailored to particular context
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
Our contention will be that the validity of this type of approach is being challenged first by a recognition that such priorities cannot exist independently of a consideration of the structures
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 244 can see a polarisation of approaches between, on the one hand,
and on the other hand ongoing activities such as horizon scanning activity which provides the basis for informing the first type of approach.
An influential approach emerging from industrial ex ante project selection methods was developed by the Australian National Laboratory CSIRO based upon a matrix of attractiveness and feasibility.
and that, given the wide range of risk/reward profiles among the selected areas, that a portfolio approach should be adopted.
A tougher but still limited approach very often used by funding bodies, is to‘‘topsliice'a proportion of resources from competing recipients
which are intended to build on a thematic or priority-setting approach for example building action networks around the priorities and foresight exercises
and the participants and operators of foresight exercises who confront the realities of the need for structural change and a process-oriented approach.
Havas has argued that the actor-based approach is only meaningful if it is embedded in an understanding of the research systems in
this approach is understood as concentrations of industries supporting each other. A cluster was identified originally by means of analysis of market interactions between industries along value-chains.
However, the approach also emphasises the means by which framework conditions affect complex linkages within and between industries and the influence of social, economic and cultural factors.
The application of foresight approaches to these areas has been explored by Blind who focuses on approaches which identify future fields for regulatory action
and innovation policy offers a robust future for these approaches. For the community which has developed them the challenge is to ensure that their standards of rigour
forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
Interestingly, these dimensions match largely with approaches addressed when the major societal challenges are dealt with. The locus of foresight activities has tended to shift from positivist
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
The management approach and stakeholder engagement refer, instead, to the process-related aspects of the project, for instance responding to a question on how the outcomes were achieved and by
consensual vs. diverse Future perspectives can be addressed to define the approach of how and with what methods the project develops understanding of the future.
it is crucial to be able to develop also consensual visions and recommendations into action for policy and in more general decision-making processes. 2. 3. Chosen management approach:
fixed vs. autonomous The foresight process can be taken up with different kinds of management approaches, which are driven often by the diverse expectations laid on the project.
Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.
Here, two extreme approaches can be identified in view of the classification purposes 10: Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the project at the outset and control the process,
extensive vs. exclusive One way to conceptualise stakeholder engagement is to define extensive and exclusive stakeholder engagement 12 and the continuum of different possible combined approaches between them, namely from confined exclusive engagement to extensive but exclusive
Extensive stakeholder engagement refers to the approach in which the actual number of participants is high,
While the authors consider diverse approaches valuable in the realm of foresight to address societal challenges, for the purposes of this paper,
A review of FISTERA by NISTEP underlined the relevance of FISTERA's approach to formulate national science and technology policies also in Japan 24.
and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.
The instrumental approach and still integration of diverse perspectives was largely possible, because the project was organised internally,
which are addressed often as strengths of many foresight methods and approaches. It may often be appropriate to design a foresight process as informative
and the implications for regulation towards an approach for the information society, COM/97/623, December 1997.17 Nordic ICT foresight, available at:
when there is a real difficulty with applying formal modelling approaches to the topic in question. 2 Such methods allow us to explore the structure of opinion
and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).
which suggestions for participants and dissemination approaches are elicited. 3. Methods and tools So, FTA has many faces
We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping, and some specific tools of operations management and operational research (such as DEMATEL,
the accumulation and integration of knowledge about different tools and approaches is very uneven. Many (probably the great majority of) FTA practitioners are familiar with only a limited number of these tools.
The tools and approaches have been created in very diverse contexts and by different communities; they feature different philosophies.
But anecdotal evidence suggests that many FTA practitioners are simply reiterating the particular approaches with
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.
and even later stages involving the embedding of FTA practices and approaches.)The selection of methods is a task,
These approaches assume that one person, or a small group, can be informed sufficiently well about numerous issues
and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
Several influential approaches to KM and organisational learning have emerged in recent years and we turn briefly to these. 9 5. Methods
The earlier discussion of sensemaking and foresight phases can readily be related to such a SECI approach.
using a wide variety of different approaches and methodologies (agent-based approaches, neural network-type approaches, fuzzy approaches, etc.
Nor is it a matter of approaches being mutually exclusive. Formal models (for example, diffusion and substitution analyses) can only go so far
and risk assessment approaches (see 24), two recent examples where a complementary approach was adopted retroactively come to mind:
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
but Web2. 0 social networking approaches, and collaborative modelling approaches are creating opportunities for much broader engagement in FTA ACTIVITIES.
This will pose considerable challenges for KM: not only will much of the relevant insight be generated on a bottom-up basis,
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