The implications of this approach for relationships between the society and public policy explain the shift from the government to governance.
and encourages an integrated approach to development which promotes partnership as a key element of good governance.
company and plant specific factors that are difficult to detect through analytical approaches. The issue of the causal sequence between financial and social environmental performance remains unresolved.
Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
and replication of successful solutions Table 1 A strategic approach to CSR. Generic social impacts Value chain social impacts Social dimensions of competitive context Good citizenship Mitigate harm from value chain activities Strategic philanthropy5 that leverages capabilities
Nevertheless, it is the responsibility of a company's board to take forward such an approach in a strategic way
Companies need to shift from a fragmented, defensive posture to an integrated, affirmative approach. The focus needs to move away from an emphasis on image to an emphasis on substance.
A Management Science Approach, John Wiley, Chicester, 2001.16 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.17 R. E. Freeman, Strategic management:
A Stakeholder Approach, Pitman, Boston, 1984.18 O. Saritas, L. Pace, S. Stalpers, Stakeholder participation and Dialogue in Foresight, From Oracles to Dialogue:
This approach was selected because it was considered that a clear definition of the terms supported with examples would help the participants in completing the survey, particularly those with less Foresight experience,
may create discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate treaties design and promulgation;
/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis
ecological behaviour reverse perception of a resource scarce world Discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate change Breakdown of world order Resource scarcity creates new motivations
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference,
In this way the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events is enhanced through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights.
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning.
Major findings were obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events,
foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide PAGE 280 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 society.
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
The results of a planning process are shaped by the specific combination of the different approaches. The huge variety in tools and methods,
Therefore, a problem-oriented approach is required. Problems linked to missing or incomplete knowledge in transport panning need to be addressed.
But wide parts of the‘‘real world''cannot be included in modelling approaches; it is not possible to detect any effects in excluded areas.
but the main characteristics of these approaches is the way in which they seek to PAGE 286 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 integrate knowledge of experts, stakeholders and also of laypeople in the process of policy making.
Approaches for two-way communications are based on the exchange of arguments in a predefined situation. Again
these approaches can be unstructured widely or more strongly formalised. Examples include round tables, future workshops, planning workshops with citizens,
More structured approaches could be workshops, where a predefined set of key questions is used to guide the discussion.
and unknown unknowns (see Figure 1). 3. 2 Structurally closed methods Structurally closed methods are characterised by highly formalised and pre-structured approaches.
Quite often several methods are packed together under the umbrella of more integrative approaches. These tools are used to integrate data of different character and sources.
Scenario processes and modelling approaches quite often play an important role. In particular for SEA, participatory or consultative methods are used also frequently (see Rauschmayer and Risse, 2005.
4. Illustrative exemplification of the approach The main intention of the differentiation between structurally open
In this chapter some real life examples are given to illustrate briefly the potential of the approach. The focus is put on the combination of structurally open
According to the approach introduced in this paper, it would have been subject of open methods to clarify these assumptions.
It needs to be accompanied by an open approach, which allows for discussing the potential consequences with experts and decision makers.
because it was shown not in the results of ex ante modelling approaches. Again, this means that the cause-effects relations between infrastructure supply and traffic demand were obviously not fully understood,
It helps to get a better understanding of discursive or participative approaches, on their potential role for gaining knowledge that is needed for anticipating unintended effects of policies.
The approach is not solving problems such as inaccuracy in data; it does not provide directly for new knowledge;
the approach aims at supporting a more proper handling of uncertainties by enabling a more appropriate application of fta methods.
) The structurally open/structurally closed approach (see chapter 3) could be discussed within this context but further elaboration would go beyond the scope of this paper.
Rauschmayer, F. and Risse, N. 2005),‘A framework for the selection of participatory approaches for SEA''
Complexity science approaches to the application foresight Averil Horton Abstract Purpose This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why
but either way, a critical thinking approach can be helpful. Bringing together complexity theory, reframing and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better,
and control approaches do not work in complex systems. The resulting implication is that a system cannot be controlled from above
In this case promoting variation also constitutes a risk management approach, whereby a policy is more able to work as its environment changes
The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically. This method fits very well for the use of public decision-makers
The backcasting approach, applied in this scenario exercise, is a scenario coming back from the future to the present.
Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example, energy use of some industrial processes,
In the pallet of the methods of futures studies catering many different approaches to different needs can be found.
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.
Furthermore, a systematic approach is necessary to map these indications that give insights in the situation.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.
via a prototype (May 2003) to manufacturing a proprietary approach (2004). Hence, the developments at Nantero show a clear way towards commercialisation.
developments of TA were leading to different approaches in the United states compared to Europe. In the United states TA kept to policy analysis,
while in Europe the approach is focussed more on addressing different social groups. In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe.
The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:
of a CTA study (at least in some approaches) is the formulation of bsocio-technical scenariosq 35,
The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995.33 R. Smits, A. Leyten, Technology assessment, Waakhond of speurhond?
Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.
With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
This approach consists of five sequential steps (see Figure 2): 1. Formulation of future visions. Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
Although this approach is not new in the strict sense, since most of the proposed steps have been used implicitly or explicitly in the urban planning field,
formulating a future vision for sustainable development Once the proposed approach to link foresight tools to the urban planning process has been established,
linking the different lines of sectoral planning under a comprehensive approach. Environmental, transport and land-use planning are intertwined
Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial
this approach has allowed us to mature ideas and contrast instruments with parsimony in a little-explored field of knowledge. 6. Main findings
With respect to the assessment of the approach proposed in this paper some findings are worth mentioning. First, the foresight method appears to be user-friendly for regional and local decision makers and quite manageable for technicians.
Although the approach is process-oriented, it generates a tangible product future scenarios and their functional, parametric and spatial implications
The complementary added value of both approaches can represent an innovative opportunity for policy makers and stakeholders searching to respond to future challenges.
Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society.
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
and articulate the growing number of instruments, approaches and procedures, it has created also its own identity,
Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.
In the following sections, a series of initiatives (existing and/or prospective) regarding the application and use of specific FTA TOOLS and approaches In law, namely to legal research,
The approach is thus a global and systematic one looking at Law and legal systems from a series of different angles and perspectives.
In other words, the reactive and responsive approaches that traditionally characterised the work of police VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 341 forces has been complemented with a research-based approach that strives to detect
which encourages the use of criminal intelligence to support collaborative, multijurisdictional approaches to crime prevention,
or threat increase the ability to create information-based approaches to prevention, thwarting, resource allocation,
These fact-based approaches promise to increase citizen and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.
More evidence-based approaches to the assessment of regulatory quality allow a review of the effectiveness of policy tools used in practice
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
The latter constitutes an innovative approach to law enforcement. In fact, it reveals that the successful application of fta to Law encompasses all of its different domains,
or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach, as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
which may (and should) make use of scientifically oriented tools and approaches, such as the ones of FTA,
methods and approaches that enable Law to acknowledge and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society.
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
The paper presents and develops three methodological approaches (indicator-based approaches, surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
to enable new technological approaches and to trigger wider applications in a number of industries.
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
Nanotechnology comprises a wide range of approaches that are quite heterogeneous with regard to their subjects of investigation, possible applications and imaginable periods of realisation.
they all have their own ideas and assumptions, interpretations and examples, scientific approaches and experiences in the back of their head.
Are there approaches to let it become part of decisions which are taken already at early stages of an R&d project about its objectives,
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
By serving as kind of an expert-based participatory approach to the systems analysis step of a TA,
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
The science-driven approach is starting with the current research activities, its results and plans for their continuation and is aiming at opening
application-driven approach where we will be trying to seek and assess alternative (and hopefully better) pathways for one or two yet-to-be selected products
These developments have put pressure on the TA practitioners to rethink their approaches and outputs as well as to review their methods toolbox 15.
Because of the diversity of scientific and technological approaches pursued under the umbrella of dnanotechnologyt, for TA purposes some preparatory steps are needed.
This problem-oriented approach may have been one of the reasons for a further increase in the number of submitted abstracts and participants.
improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptiiv events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions;
This approach is in line with a claim made by another keynote speaker, Richard Hames from the Asian Foresight Institute (AFI),
He, therefore, suggested making more use of approaches that allow for exploring such levels of thinking.
This approach dixit Ollila, calls both for new structures and competencies, and for innovation policy based on a networking approach.
The papers presented in this special issue address the above issues by exploring from different angles the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. Tuomi sees only a limited role for the identification of weak signals in understanding the future,
and an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action.
Guo, Ma, Porter and Huang propose an approach to address the highly uncertain dynamics of New & Emerging science &technologies (NESTS.
The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
The approach proposed is applied to the development of Dye-Sensitized Solar cells (DSSCS), and shows potential to capture key technoloog
and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. Keywords: unpredictability; ontological expansion; anticipatory systems;
In Creative Evolution, he argued that both mechanistic and teleological approaches fail to explain novelty.
In mechanistic approaches, future unfolds in a deterministic way and there is no space for truly novel forms.
In finalistic and teleological approaches, on the other hand, the future is preordained as a perfect blueprint. Both mechanistic and finalistic explanations of evolution and emergence,
A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)
The above discussion indicates that such approaches have limited only potential in future-oriented analysis. Future emerges in a periphery where robust facts
this approach cannot lead to methodologically robust predictions. Similarly, reactive what if models can only provide predictive value
and systems analyyti approaches recasting the object reality, as determined from one of the above two categories,
So far, FTA has stuck to familiar approaches to what it does and its intentions. Whether these can be sustained as‘fit for purpose'is another matter.
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
and various approaches and tools have been developed and evaluated (Coates et al. 2001; Harper et al. 2008; Eerola and Miles 2011.
This approach studies how expectations in science and technology are structured, how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear,
However, according to a constructivist approach to expectations it is not possible to decide a priori whether the promises of stem cells or nanotechnology are‘true'.
and that the approach is insufficiently robust for an ex ante policy (Berkhout 2006). Eames (2006) and his colleagues have studied how the guiding vision of the hydrogen economy has lead to resistance.
‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.
A broad range of heuristic approaches to coping with uncertainty have been developed in corporrat organisations: today, the term‘strategic foresight'is used widely to designate the activities
and refined their approaches to handling environmental uncertainty. We start examining the historical evolution and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
such approaches are grouped commonly under the label‘strategic foresight'(Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010; Vecchiato and Roveda 2010b.
and emphasised an‘adaptive approach'based on strategic flexibility (Hamel 2000; Mintzberg 1990. Foresight practitioners and scholars generally respond to such criticism by arguing that the role of foresight
matching the right anticipatory approach with the specific conditions of uncertainty a firm is facing in its business environment is an essential condition
and refined their approaches to handling environmental uncertainty. Table 1. Overview of case studies. Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
Data analysis was highly iterative and used traditional approaches for inductive research (Eisenhardt 1989; Yin 2003.
In such a context, BASF's strategic foresight approach to investigating the evolution impact, and response options to macro drivers of change (i e. for coping with state, effect,
A model for uncertainty and strategic foresight In the prior sections, we sketched the strategic foresight approaches that emerged from our data through
Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;
this differs from the triplebotttomline approach (Elkington 1998.**Corresponding author. Email: cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http
Developments in this approach, such as the natural value chain and value nets, bring into the scenario the requirement of aligning customers
All these approaches focus on the operational processes or value activities, and their necessary supporting procedures, to transform basic inputs into final goods or services.
but also be able to build an approach in which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy.
to compose management approaches. These seek to support firms while they implement monitoring and reporting of the activities that each enterprise believes are needed to achieve an enhanced triple-bottom-line business performance.
Management approach: supporting a company's selection among the underlying possibilities of improvement so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development
as equals, in dialogue through an inclusive approach (Olsen 2003). Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
According to Losada (1999), high-performance teams need an inclusive dialogue approach for all stakeholders in the network.
which includes the need for an inclusive dialogue approach with all stakeholders in the network with FTA permeating all processes:
in order to steer solutions to emerging challenges through an inclusive approach as well as further experimentation and learning, helping
but that different approaches offer different perspectives and levels of detail that can each be of benefit to the analyst or manager.
The current approach of applying information visualization tools to the analysis of the LDRD portfolio enables a comprehensive assessment of the technological development trends occurring within our IAS.
partial structural openness enabling flexibility in organisation and an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action.
1) partial structural openness in the organisational structures and (2) an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action.
After that, we demonstrate the‘widened'roadmapping approach by using four of VTT's foresight projects as case studies.
, that is, a proactive participatory approach leading to action. In this situation, strategies should be constantly‘on the move,
Roadmapping can thus be considered a kind of‘fractal'approach, which is scalable both temporally and substantially.
This space takes a holistic view of the organisation and approaches it simultaneeousl as a socio-technical complex and as a strategic entirety.
It was aimed to build capacities for the renewal of VTT's technological basis by stressing the development of a more service-oriented approach.
It roadmapped the potential for a novel development trajectory in an RTO (VTT) and it enhanced the organisational capacities of adopting a novel service science approach.
In addition, exploratory approaches based on, for example, modelling, simulation, or weak signal analysis could be useful in charting the visionary space.
This paper explores the systematisation of the‘Forecasstin Innovation Pathways'analytical approach through the application oftech Mining.
We have devised a 4-stage, 10-step approach to Forecast Innovation Pathways(‘FIP'.'This process integrates (a) heavily empirical‘Tech Mining'with (b) heavily expert-based multipath mapping.
This paper explores the systematisation of the FIP analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining.
Recently, Robinson (Robinson et al. 2011) has introduced the approach of‘FIP'.'That paper provides conceptual background for the endeavour of combining‘Tech Mining'(Porter
It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
2. 3. Innovation system conceptual modelling A variety of approaches aim to capture the systemic processes by
Among the various approaches to capture the essentials of innovation systems, the technology delivery system(‘TDS')has demonstrated enduring value by capturing
2011) elaborate on a means to formulate a TDS for a given NEST the approach is qualitative
although one could consider augmenting the FIP approach by such techniques. 1 Two different situations can be contrasted.
with a secondary interest in the DSSC characterisation. 4. 1. Compose TDS (Step B) The TDS approach is akin to other technology innovation system approaches,
This approach uses the Subject Categories assigned to journals bywos. Accordingly for a set of publications indexed by WOS (in this case, by SCI,
This paper extends our FIP approach. Earlier papers have suggested how particular FTA techniqque can contribute to the FIP steps.
Our FIP approach, which combines qualitative and quantitative tools in the‘Profile, Project and Assess'steps,
The variability among NEST situations and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered very flexibly.
Design/methodology/approach Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges.
or discussion and a mission-oriented approach. Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
The approach is characterized from two aspects: 1. interdisciplinary or diversified discussion; and 2. the mission-oriented or problem-solving approach.
The main points are expert panels by cross-disciplinary theme rather than by technological discipline, the active participation of specialists in social science and humanities,
and finally 2, 900 responses were received in total. 2. 3 Scenario Three approaches were attempted for scenario building with a view to the desired future. 2. 3. 1 Scenarios by group work.
the approach employed here aims to take a comprehensive view of facets of science and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen
Naturally, the approach to address global or national challenges goes far beyond the border of research and development in a single discipline,
and a mission-oriented or problem-solving approach. Three investigative studies were carried out, employing methods of Delphi, scenario,
could be regarded as an acceptable approach to take every advantage of method employed and position potential areas of future innovation with related areas to be promoted together in the whole picture.
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