In this paper we demonstrate how existing approaches for transferring foresight results into strategic planning can be applied to research policy making.
We present a seven-step process that is suitable as a generic framework for defining the most appropriate approach to a given situation to support research policy making.
and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
Details of the optimum approach depend on the subject matter as well as political considerations. Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
and uncertainty and conflicting approaches to entering such uncharted territory need to be observed and managed.
Methodologically, mutual gains approaches (e g. Fisher and Ury, 1991; Susskind and Movius, 2009) can already be useful at this stage in that discussions
Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
Such approaches are built often into prioritisation exercises, where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences
and 2. a more explicitly problem or impact-oriented approach. In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well and co-operation builds transparency and trust.
and proposed the following approach: B a challenge has connectivity across two or more drivers or themes at the global level;
In the context of several European initiatives to promote approaches to dealing with grand challenges, this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,
and innovation systems can address grand challenges can be done through bottom-up approaches. Although it was designed not originally in this way
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:
(i e. to key factors of environmental degradation in Russia, the main principles of state ecological policy, the list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration,
and the large number of players, imply the need to use integrated approaches for identifying S&t and innovation priorities for this sector.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan South korea and China,
In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
and the need for partnering approaches to manage these networks of buyers, suppliers and peer companies, knowing the capabilities and intents of other organization for noncompetitive purposes.
A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London. Herring, J. P. 1993),‘Scientific and technical intelligence: the key to R&d'',Journal of Business strategy, Vol. 15, pp. 10-12.
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
Rather, it is a set of various approaches to the future, which share some assumptions,
None of these approaches is a discipline on its own, either, in a strict sense. All three components of FTA draw on the theoretical framework of several disciplines.
In more details, it is relevant to combine these two approaches when both add value.
'or adequate approach would endanger diversity and competition of approaches. Without that competition a major source of methodological innovation, a means of quality assurance,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.
therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.
Both Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling
and influenced the practice of FTA to show that alignment of approaches, consideration of users'perspectives and divergence,
and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision-making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches,
They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage
use of interfaces or‘bridges'between these two approaches aiming to feed one another with different inputs,
and full integration of QL and QT approaches and show how significant progress has been made in terms of relatively simple combinations but not more sophisticated and promising ones.
The fundamental epistemological divide between QL and QT approaches is exacerbated by the lack of mutual trust between practitioners and users of each approach due to differences in cultures
and QT approaches does lead not only to a richer analysis of possible futures, but also to a wider view on possible directions of future developments.
Based on this conviction they propose several ways to support deeper integration of QL and QT approaches:(
successful cases and good practices to build trust,(e) creation of technological and methodological interfaces between QL and QT approaches,(f) setting up of multidisciplinary teams from the very beginning of an exercise
approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as provide guidance for the identification of the features that may help the selection of the appropriate set of tools
Gao et al. 7 proposes an approach to enable technology managers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology.
EMA is an iterative model-driven approach for designing dynamic adaptive policies and it deals with uncertainties by using an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (or scenarios.
Kwakkel and Pruit 12 present three applications of EMA, using different modelling approaches, in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 more experimental approaches to creating new solutions
In the USA, the approach entails mainly integrated vision-building and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning.
Hence, alignment of approaches and consideration of users'perspectives, as well as divergence and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA 384 C. Cagnin et al./
12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.
considering qualitative and participatory approaches as a second best option, to which we are compelled somehow to refer until adequate quantitative methods arise.
They also identified the scientific quality and validity of outcomes of participatory approaches as an issue of concern 18.
In some cases, the interactions between the two approaches are limited to cross-checking of assumptions and findings of the same analysis
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
thus limiting the scale of failures (with a focus on market pull vis-à-vis the technology push approach).
of which were compared to the findings of a quantitative calculation of performance indicators. 3. 2. Use of technical and methodological interfaces that facilitate interaction A second type of exercise uses intermediaries as interfaces between the two approaches.
However, to date no concrete examples of this approach could be identified, though the authors refer to Wikipedia and Google as similar examples.
A related approach is proposed by Soojung-Kim Pang 41 who suggests that tools and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
First, regardless of the quantitative or qualitative nature of the approach followed, a value judgement is involved in any FTA exercise.
and interpret both approaches leads to lack of trust amongst practitioners of each approach. Such lack of trust again reinforces existing epistemological barriers,
Below we propose a dual approach, combining the short-term treatment of‘symptomatic'barriers, with longer-term priorities for research and policy that address more fundamental barriers to methodological integration. 5. 1. Overcoming short-term barriers One way to extend the application of quantitative methods in FTA
Addressing practical incompatibilities between both approaches may also gradually change preferences of FTA practitioners for specific methods in favour of integrated approaches.
or integrate both approaches or identify interfaces, making use of complementary and/or contradictory features of methods.
Obviously, such endeavour would require the existence of both good performance indicators and the identification of correlations and causal relationships between the scores on the indicators and the anticipatory approaches applied.
Techniques and approaches related to building stakeholder trust can also be applied to bridge qualitative and quantitative communities.
by increasing the mutual understanding of the approaches applied. Stocktaking of good practices, and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
In this context, combining methodological approaches creates opportunities to complement the weaknesses inherent to the use of one single approach with strengths of other approaches.
approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as guidance for the 16 If forecasting is used to compare the impact of alternative policy options,
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.395 K. Haegeman et al./
A Realist Approach, Routledge, London, 1992. orig. 1984. 58 A. Baban, Reconceptualisation of the division between quantitative and qualitative researchmethods, cognition, brain, behavior, Interdiscip.
and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.
The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time.
Such a cautionary notion should be recognized for our approach developed here also. The concept of the technology life cycle (TLC) was presented by Arthur 9 to measure technological changes.
According to this definition, Ernst 10 developed a map to illustrate TLC (Fig. 1). The dominant approach to analysing TLC with an S-curve is to observe technological performance,
Technology observers can make their R&d investment decision by using the proposed approach. The result shows that NBS is in a growth stage.
This approach to gauge a technology's growth trend provides a more robust projection. However, as mentioned in Section 1,
extrapolative technology trend approaches are not Fig. 5. An example for computing the distance between test point
optofluidic, electrical and mechanical approaches to biomolecular detection at the nanoscale, Microfluid. Nanofluid. 4 (1 2)( 2008) 33 52.33 G. A. Urban, Micro-and nanobiosensors state of the art and trends, Meas.
Policy 1 (3 4)( 2004) 1740 2816.39 C. Lee, Y. Cho, H. Seol, Y. Park, A stochastic patent citation analysis approach
A very important aspect of Fisher's approach when introducing for the first time the dfitness functiont was that of natural selection acting on the population level,
All this is to say that the use of biological approaches in analyzing the evolution of technology
some modern approaches from complex systems theory, like self-organization, is an alternative to dbiological analogiest or Darwinism;
or in other words, the basic process of Gene Culture Coevolution, which is the most appropriate approach to develop a firmly based ETTC.
There are two possible approaches to simulating technological and/or socioeconomic systems. The systems dynamics approach, widely used in technological forecasting
since the 1950s, is btop-downq in character (so called because it views the system from above, as a whole).
The other approach forms the new sub-field of bartificial Lifeq (AL, for short) that uses so-called dsoft computingt models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) that encompasses several methods of simulation
and it is characterized best as a bbottom-upq approach. Its origin remounts to the 1970s with the emergence of gaming simulation.
Theoretically and methodologically this approach makes possible the construction of models from the level of processes that are immediately and empirically observable, namely the local interactions of single units (agents) governed by local rules.
there are some attempts following this approach that deserve to be mentioned here. It is worth to point out,
and most often used are (mentioning only some important publications for each approach): NK technology landscapes, initially proposed by Stuart Kauffman 26 and further pursued by other researchers of the Santa fe Institute, like Jose'Lobo 27 and Walter Fontana 28;
As a first step toward a research agenda for future development of TFA I propose the realization of an international seminar in this field (Evolutionary theory of technological change) bringing together specialists in evolutionary model building and digital Darwinism to discuss the existing approaches
In this paper, we propose an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty.
This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques,
The proposed approach, which is very useful for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) studies, is illustrated on a policy-making case related to energy transitions.
The approach is not only appropriate for energy transitions; it is also appropriate for any long-term structural and systematic transformation characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Although the approach proposed in this paper applies equally well to long-term decision-making as to policy-making, we will, from here on,
and the case we use to illustrate the approach here relates to policy-making for stimulating energy transitions.
It is clear that there is a strong need for policy-making approaches that allow for dealing with deep uncertainty,
In this paper, we propose an iterative model-based approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust under deep uncertainty.
The approach starts from a conceptualization of the decision problem and the identification of the key uncertainties.
This approach thus explicitly uses the multiplicity of plausible futures for policy design, addressing one of the shortcomings of many traditional approaches and practices,
i e. the poor utilization of the potential to be prepared for uncertainties and surprises of future developments 18.
The systemic characteristic of the proposed approach enables a holistic and systemic exploration of the future
The proposed approach is illustrated by means of a long-term policy-making case related to the transition of energy system toward sustainability.
therefore for illustrating how this approach could be used for policy-making, and more generally, decision-making under deep uncertainty.
Section 2 introduces an adaptive policy-making framework and our Adaptive Robust Design approach. Section 3 contains the energy transition case and the illustration of our approach to it.
Section 4 includes the discussion. Concluding remarks are made in Section 5. 2. Methodology: the adaptive policy-making framework and the Adaptive Robust Design approach 2. 1. The adaptive policy-making framework Under deep uncertainty,
predictive approaches are likely to result in policies that perform poorly. In response, an alternative policy-making paradigm has emerged.
More recently, Brans et al. 34 andwalker et al. 24 developed a structured, stepwise approach for dynamic adaptation.
for adaptive policy-making to become a useful policy-making approach, it is necessary to specify in more depth how the various steps could be carried out and
to being a detailed policy-making approach. A possible qualitative approach for Fig. 1. Steps of the Adaptive Policy-making Framework.
This computational approach, which we call the Adaptive Robust Design (ARD) approach, is proposed and illustrated below. 2. 2. The Adaptive Robust Design approach EMA is a methodology that uses computational experiments to combine plausible models
and other uncertainties in order to generate a large variety of scenarios that are used in turn to analyze complex uncertain systems,
support the development of long-term strategic policies under deep uncertainty, and test policy robustness over. EMA could also be used to develop adaptive policies under deep uncertainty
Hence, our Adaptive Robust Design (ARD) approach starts along the lines of the EMAMETHODOLOGYWITH:(1) the conceptualization of the problem,(2) the identification of uncertainties (and certainties),
and/or promising regions is crucial for this approach to be efficacious. These sub-regions of the uncertainty space represent combinations of uncertainties that either have highly negative or highly positive effects.
The approach for developing adaptive policies as presented here shares characteristics with‘Robust Decision making (RDM)' 8
our approach is more specific on the various ways in which uncertainties can be handled through policies.
Related to this, the approach focuses not solely on the negative side of the uncertainties, but also Fig. 2. Iterative Adaptive Robust Design process. 411 C. Hamarat et al./
our approach does not entail such a stance. Finally, in the exemplary paper on RDM 41, there is a need for significant computational power due to sampling techniques used,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 4. Discussion and implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) In this paper we proposed an iterative computational approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust
The proposed approach has been illustrated on an energy transition case. Several of our findings warrant further discussion.
and the proposed iterative Adaptive Robust Design approach can be employed for shaping and steering transitions toward more sustainable energy systems.
and assessed for their consequences. 5. Conclusions We have proposed an iterativemodel-based approach for developing adaptive policies under uncertainty.
The proposed approach, whichwe call Adaptive Robust Design, has been illustrated through a case about the structural and systemic transformation of energy generation systems toward a more sustainable future.
The iterative approach for designing robust adaptive policies helps to identify and address both vulnerabilities and opportunities,
The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
A central idea in this approach is to use the availablemodels differently, instead of using them in a predictive manner
The presented approach can easily be expanded ormodified For example, we used PRIMFOR the identification of both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
an exploratory system dynamics approach, in: The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South korea, 2010.416 C. Hamarat et al./
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:
and precautionary approaches, Risk Anal. 24 (2007) 1009 1026.45 E. Störmer, B. Truffer, D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, A. Herlyn, H. Hiessl, H
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt Faculty of technology, Policy,
and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain issues.
using different modeling approaches, in three different technical domains. In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity.
Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches
and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
A subset of these approaches relies, at least in part, on mathematical and computer models. The reason for using models might be understood in light of the rise of Newtonian mechanics
and recycling, necessitating a more exploratory approach. Causal loop diagrams are used often to communicate feedback loop structures included in System Dynamics models.
The construction of a new runway and the moving of operations are in this approach not planned for a particular moment in time,
and discussed have shown that EMA can be used to handle diverse types of uncertainties in combination with three quite distinct modeling approaches.
an exploratory system dynamics approach, in: M. H. Lee (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of The System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 27 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
Vensim DSS Reference Supplement, Ventana Systems, Inc, 2010.30 D. N. Ford, A behavioral approach to feedback loop dominance analysis, Syst.
a participatory computer assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 34 49.49 S. J. Heblij, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model.
and underlying theoretical premises 7. While the scenario literature makes explicit the methodological differences and similarities of various approaches,
cultural and political power as well as by technological rationalism and such indeterminism makes systemic approaches to innovation policy far from linear or predictable.
This initiative is an example of a strategic approach integrating research and innovation instruments and actors to tackle the innovation emergency related to the grand challenges the European union is facing 16, p1.
and provides a powerful approach that offers insights for academics and practitioners into how we constitute knowledge
Our understanding of the unpredictable inter-dependency of multiple forces means that more experimental approaches to creating new solutions are necessary.
and his approach to scenarios was primarily normative, i e. scenarios intended to provide a guiding vision of the future for policy-makers 46.
Each of these questions can be seen to evoke the motivation of a particular approach to scenarios.
the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
An overview of our findings is summarized in the subsequent sub-sections (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3). Each of these subsections includes a description of representation issues linked with the approach and methods used, input, process and main outcome.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
Our use of a reflexive methodological approach with three complementary questions on policy change, supported the grouping of different approaches of developing
This integrated approach, i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios: a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.60 T. Webler, D. Levine, H. Rakel, D. Renn, A novel approach to reducing uncertainty the group
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
the scope of future-oriented technology analysis Several distinct approaches toward anticipating the longer-term implications of nanotechnology have been taken.
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 approaches to address environmental, health, safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
This approach started early, as evidenced by first reports in the US and Germany, which documented mutual visits and mutual screening activities in the 1990s.
We explain the approach and findings of the project and discuss in particular the implications for foresight methodology.
In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,
whereas an intuitive approach without any software support has been practiced for many years in the US 17.
Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive
Common ground of almost all the approaches is the consideration of impact and uncertainty as the main criteria for selecting the factors to be used for actually constructing the scenarios 18.
In the past years approaches have been developed to integrate disruptive events into scenario building in the form of wildcards 20.
The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.
This approach attempts avoiding the exclusion of situations that seem illogical or inconsistent judged by characteristics of today's system.
In order to test the approach (only very short textual information) respondents were asked to assess the clarity of the visions in the INFU online survey.
This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach. In the INFU project it was sought explicitly to postpone convergence
They were subcontracted by the INFU consortium to further develop the vision of a future innovation landscape without any constraint as to the visioning approach.
each mini panel adopted their own approach to the visioning, but all of them integrated other experts'and actors'opinions and knowledge.
These findings imply newtopics and approaches to innovation policy as outlined in the INFU policy briefs.
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
Furthermore the visual approach succeeded in mobilising tacit knowledge and personal, emotional assessments. As concerns the assessment of coverage of dimensions of change the frameworkwas used to discuss
A deepened understanding of the different points of view and perspectives was achieved compared to many other approaches looking for early convergence rather than emphasising divergence.
which has been proved to be a robust and resilient approach to develop alternative scenarios 32, p. 111.
Similar to approaches of participatory design 33 the story-scripts allowed peoplewith different backgrounds to imagine a situation in the future without comprehensive textual information.
In addition the appealing visualisation symbolised the creative, inspiring approach which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
Therefore we recommend this approach of prolonged divergence to be developed further and frequently considered. As discussed above
the inductive scanning of signals with only minimal imposition of predefined categories proved an adequate approach for the INFU case.
We feel that this kind of approach holds a considerable potential for complementing established foresight methodology and that this potential is only just at the beginning of being exploited.
Accordingly, we conclude that similar approaches could serve in other foresight exercises to uncover and transcend perception filters.
and test the approach. Throughout the project it was recognised that people are attracted by provocative ideas and visions.
Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
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