government actions have been fundamentally gradualist in their approach since the1980s. Largely conceived in the light of market failure arguments that sat comfortably with the neoliberal economic paradigm,
but only slowly towards accommodating more interdisciplinary thematic approaches. As indicated above there has been a steady increase in the application of criteria of relevance and impact, particularly but not exclusively in terms of working with business.
It could be argued that a potential need for holistic cross-domain approaches could run contrary to earlier conclusion that FTA functions most effectively when it is tailored to the requirements of a field
or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.
and uncertainty-avoidance as the key dimensions of national governance culture and thereby critical for FTA design Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin take a less interdisciplinary approach,
Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes. For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
''Based on three case studies they suggest that FTA could help overcome some of the limitations of management approaches by setting up stakeholder dialogues
They argue that such a combined approach facilitates the shaping and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.
At the same time the authors present an approach to adapt FTA practice to the changing nature of innovation and thereby to the requirements of a specific application.
''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.
1 there is evidence of the usefulness of an anticipatory systems approach. This strand of thinking considers anticipation to be a fundamental attribute of this universe
The chapters in the handbook explicitly consider the variety of approaches and contexts within each region,
for simple structuring of a text or a book and not as a deliberate analytical approach.
In line with this regional approach to contextual categorisation, Keenan and Popper have discussed regional styles of foresight for six regions 11.
In Section 2. 3, we will further examine this approach. Countries'or regions'political culture might be closely related to national governance culture.
The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
However, according to Hofstede, organisational behaviour is supposed only to have a small impact on national culture. 2. 2. Hofstede's dimensions of national culture Hofstede takes a bipolar and multidimensional approach to the measurement of national culture.
First, due to the dense economic and social relationships between public and private organisations, participatory and consensus seeking approaches have more appeal to policy makers than deep, scientific expert analysis of available knowledge.
and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,
due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
we adopted a demand-driven approach, focusing on the end-user perspective i e.,, that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis
At the local level, we adopted a casebaase approach to increase our understanding of the key issues involved.
and desirable futures, which was why both exploratory and predictive approaches to the future were adopted. Especially at the national level, we see that foresight methods are performed in a participatory way,
To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits
By the look of things, this inter-sectoral approach is unlikely to be taken for granted within local governmental organisations.
Nevertheless, there is a consensus among the same civil servants that there is a definite need to adopt a structured approach to long-term developments.
An Advocacy Coalition Approach, Westview Press, Boulder, USA, 1993. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 25 14 M. Van de Kerkhof, Debating Climate change.
Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
and managerial approaches that are likely to be conducive to a successful international foresight project. Projects of this kind are usually characterised by geographical dispersion
and management approaches used for such projects. Section 2 examines the available literature on international foresight management
The approach proposed combined wide participation through online surveys and a wiki platform in combination with interviews and workshops with selected industry experts,
Such an approach would ensure communication and interaction throughout the project. Also, the idea was to involve the European commission (client) to debate all milestone results to ensure ownership and commitment,
In this way the approach proposed would link the strategic goals of the Commission with the operational aspects of the process.
These are bottom-up approaches that put more stress on interaction. On the other hand, closed and expert-driven stages are those based on top-down approaches that work from a fixed procedure.
These are often small panels of experts drawn from different stakeholder groups. C. Cagnin T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
Taking this approach meant that participants'knew what was expected at each phase and how milestone outcomes would feed into the next steps.
to identify key elements for the joint vision Multiple approaches to develop scenarios Online elaboration of scenarios
JRCIPPT proposed a different approach than the one decided at the kickoff meeting: each selected snapshot would be developed by different teams with support from JRC-IPTS.
The approach worked very well and enabled partners to feel more secure about the work being done and its results.
This approach was key to designing a questionnaire able to elicit the innovative ideas that participants thought critical for IMS both globally and locally.
It is important to highlight that an international approach was sought throughout the exercise. The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
Such an approach allowed the consortia to unlock not only global needs for IMS with respect to RI and collaboration.
The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, 2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
Regulatory foresight addresses approaches allowing future fields of regulatory actions to be identified, which could also contribute to new markets.
and approaches developed for the purpose. The conclusions provide a brief critical evaluation of the methods and an identification of requirements for future research.
However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(
and provide knowledge on the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making: It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate,
IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in which users and other stakeholders are involved systematically to detect future opportunities and risks.
continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.
and market pull approaches due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of systems, more distributed nature of knowledge creation and innovation,
the relevance of inclusive approaches and interaction between various stakeholders is emphasised strongly. It is argued that participatory methods are effective at stimulating the transfer of knowledge,
One approach that may be effective at enabling the desired inclusive knowledge creation is to use the future as a catalyst for precipitating the collective intelligence of users and stakeholders 10.
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
From the seventies and eighties onwards, several proactive and more bottom-up technology assessment approaches emerged in different countries,
A number of concepts and approaches were proposed, such as Constructive technology assessment (CTA), Participatory Design and Participatory Innovation 13,14.
An integrated approach towards Innovation Foresight is thus called for. The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics.
Such an inclusive approach requires participation and involvement of different stakeholders on equal terms, hereby empowering users as key stakeholders
They represent two different approaches for going beyond the‘here and now'in the context of innovation research. 3. Illustrations from two empirical case-studies 3. 1. Study 1:
a‘Lead User'approach for digital TV Study 1 aims to identify users'specific (future) needs concerning interactive digital TV in Flanders.
%For the identification of these future user needs, we adopted an approach based on the first steps of Lead User-market research 23,25 and inspired by the idea of‘crowdsourcing'26.
we argue that it differs from traditional approaches in market innovation research. First of all, user surveys are used traditionally rarely at the early, exploratory stages of the development process and with the purpose of detecting future needs or opportunities.
the gathered ideas serve as bottom-up input for further exploration of future innovation opportunities for DTV in a natural research setting (through the Living Lab approach).
Two different approaches for tapping the knowledge and imaginative potential of users and for fostering a more anticipatory mind-set were illustrated.
In Study 1, a combined approach of Lead Users with the idea of crowdsourcing was used.
Such approaches can help to collect anticipatory intelligence, e g.,, through the identification of future innovation opportunities or threats and through the detection of explicit as well as more latent future needs.
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
and testing a new PMS that they have devised advancing on the Balance Scorecard (BSC) approach.
and develop new configurations through a multilevel governance approach, as well as further experimentation and learning. Fig. 2 outlines the proposed‘‘renewed''system including the FTA aspects here outlined.
and to develop new configurations through a multilevel governance approach, as well as mutual experimentation and learning. However, in order to validate
networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks.
Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight. However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly.
Then, the approach for the analysis is outlined, the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained.
while clearly embracing the open approach by using outside sources within the corporate innovation process. In this section we have shown two paths that led us to believe that networked foresight is the next generation of futures research:
and networked approach to foresight to identify and explore innovations for Dutch water management. While the process model was adopted to integrate multiple parties as well,
The project-based approach reduces the risk of failure and keeps investment levels low. However, the partners do not use the full potential of the network.
a new challenge for a regional approach to innovation systems, European Planning Studies 15 (2006) 195 215.17 H. A. von der Gracht, C. R. Vennemann,
a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips, On s-curves
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
there is no clear evidence yet that this dynamic conteex has led to a significant increase in the use of such approaches.
the type of technique (qualitative versus (semi) quantitative), the type of approach (exploratory versus normative),
as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
If combinations of tools and approaches are selected well, they can result in a higher overall FTA score.
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
curve modelling, leading indicators, envelope curves, long wave models Expert opinion Survey, Delphi, focus groups, participatory approaches Modelling and simulation Innovations systems descriptions
De Moor et al. develop a novel approach for incorpooratin more user-driven innovation strategies in companies'product development processes using‘living lab'research.
it was envisaged that it would be less difficult to create a joint approach in contrast to foresight activiitie with a more specific focus.
Principal use of the scan data The UK horizon scan (see Figure 1) has tended to be used as part of a client-oriented project approach
In this way, the future-oriented approach is disseminated through the whole of the government system, as well as the scientific communnit and society.
In The netherlands the approach used can be descrribe as the cluster approach (see Figure 2). This started with the assembling of clusters of issues with potentially impact-rich interactions.
Next to this, a more client-oriented‘scan proof'approach was developed and implemented for some clients on the regional level.
and web-bots for informmatio gathering these approaches will play an important role in the blue sky projects that have alreead been mentioned in this paper.
Finally, the handling of science issues in the scans requires a careful approach. This should balance the need for scientific scrutiny
The successful approach to this taken by the UK's Delta Scan was to seek the views of 250 leading scientists
or a research funding scheme (as in Denmark) or to identify new crosscutting questions that need further forwardloookin attention with other methods and transdiscipliinar approaches (clusters of issues, as in The netherlands).
This issue not only requires a transdiscipliinar approach, but it also requires a policy that transcends several policy areas and the borders of countries.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Schwarz, J O 2006.
Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
a stepwise approach was allowed followwed It new insights on the nature of potentially disruptive changes, which had been generated in a previous stage,
Much of his research work builds on foresight-type of approaches which aim to support the formattio of policy strategies and associated governance models.
This approach was very helpful for stimulating discusssions However, depending on the creative conteen sub-sector the stakeholders represented and their role and relative position on these sub-sectors,
and deriving conclusions for R&d policy turned out to be beyond the reach of the approach. This is as much due to the inherent limitations of our abilities to look into the future
Energy forecasts using a‘Roundless'approach to running a Delphi study. Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35.
multi-lens approaches to accommodate diversity Networking and collaboration are featured prominently in most foresight processes, with the result that the organization and quality of the social interactions are themselves key objectives Organization
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
i e. there was a recognized need to use new and more forward looking approaches to help in policy setting.
There was a range of creative communication approaches ranging from newslettter and websites devoted to key stakeholders to an approach of getting in the elevator with key decision-makers to give them 60 second elevaato speeches.
Integration of stakeholders in programs: The agencies investigated all made use of key stakehollder in processes such as project selection, informmatio gathering and assessment,
evident but not distinctly recognized The foresight program was able to test at least five novel approaches
and approaches which are needed to combat these threats, to reduce costs of treatment and to improve the human and animal health situation in both developed and developing countries.
The study has highlighted the importance of interdisciplinary approaches that cross traditional intellectual boundaries when dealing with EID.
The result of this‘converging'approach is to be shown in this paper in the context of the crossbounndar Asia-pacific regional setting.
) According to the model, technological approaches can be used to combat EIDS at every stage of their life cycle, from preventive measures such as vacciine to biosensors for surveillance, bioassays for detection, drugs for treatment,
This covers technologgica approaches such as use of mosquito nets and insecticides in the case of malaria.
Technological Approaches to Combating Emerging Infectious diseases (EIDS. Paper presented at the APEC Scenario Workshop on Converging technologies to combat EIDS,
Many authors have explored this shift from traditional push-to more pull-and userdriive approaches. Whereas the former are characterrize by technology-centred strategies and limited user involvement
) Although both approaches emphasize the interactiio between technological and societal forces, they have been criticized for their rather linear social determiinism Other theories have a less linear view:
This and other approaches try to focus on technological developmeen from a mutual shaping or interactionism point of view (Lievrouw, 2006.
As a result, userdriive innovation requires an interdisciplinary approach. Several approaches have been put forward for the collection of this type of knowledge.
Hansson (2006) distinguishes two types of user-driven innovattio methods: voice of the customer methods and lead-user methods.
Using this approach, 13 clusters were discovered (Table 3) . Since each cluster represents a set of applications with strong correlations in the interest
which expressed the need for a cross-media approach. During the same stage, the Qoe of one particular application (i e.
we developed a five-step interdiscipplinar approach for linking Qoe to Qos parameters in living lab environments.
This approach draws on hard technical parameters as well as more subjective (social, contextual etc. elements and their translation.
Future research will include the testing of this multimettho approach with a large number of users and several usage contexts and parameters in a living lab setting.
-led approaches in the communications industry. Drawing on a number of theoretical frameworks that have studied the relationship between technology and users/society in greater depth,
notwithstanding this ongoing broadening and despite the emphasis on such interdisciplinary approaches, it still remains difficult to create a meaningful synergy between useer and technology.
it was illustrated how research in a living lab setting can be complemented by other research methods in order to fuel the userdriive approach.
Reassessing the value of bottom-up approaches within an interdisciplinary mobiil media context. Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.
an evaluation based on a matching approach Spyros Arvanitis, Laurent Donzé and Nora Sydow This paper investigates the impact of the promotional activities of The swiss Commission of Technology
A brief description of the approach pursued in this paper is as follows: we identified the subsidized firms in the period 2000 2002 from the CTI database.
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio
correction approaches. Most studies use contemporraneou data on the states of subsidized and non-subsidized firms (as in this paper.
Seven of them reffe to European countries (Austria, Germany, Ireland, Spain and Switzerland), six of them apply matching approaches
and one of them only uses a selection correction approach. Moreover, the study for Ireland combines selection correction approach and matching method, that for Austria uses both approaaches Finally, three of the non-European studies (USA, Japan and Israel) use versions
of the selection correction method, while the Canadian study is based on a matching approach and is the only study that compares the impact of two different policy instrumments Six out of ten studies use R&d intensity,
R&d expenditure or R&d personnel as the target variables of the promotional measures. For one study the target variable is innovation expenditure.
Most studies Table 1. Summary of selected empirical studies Study/country Policy instrument being evaluated Number of firms Approach Impact on target variable Sakakibara (1997),
(1999 2002) 828 Combination of matching approach and difference-indiffeerenc estimator R&d spending; R&d spending per employee:
Another significant shift is from primarily expert-based approaches to continuous highly participative‘crowdbassed processes.
and increasinngl transnational, research and innovation systems can be seen to offer the most effective approach to meeting crosscutting societal challenges.
The value of novel approaches to FTA to more effectivvel identify, understand and thus respond to grand challennge has been addressed in two of the papers,
and limitations of a number of different horizon scanning approaches applied in a European commission funded Framework programme project (SESTI).
various forms of horizon scanning offer tested approaches for identifying signals that indicate emerging issues. But mere listing of such signals does not necessarily support the formulation of policy issues or, more broadly, the develoopmen of coherent policy themes
Traditionally, the Fraunhofer R&d portfolio has been technologydriiven A corporate Future topics process has been establisshe in order to foster a needs-oriented approach.
Collaboration and interdisciplinary problemsollvin approaches are fostered as project consortia have to consist of at least four institutes, preferably with diverging technological competences.
Strategic foresight exercises can be developed by means of different approaches, dealing with aspects that might include the following:
which a good communication approach may help make the difference between good and bad final results.
The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.
as well as new manageemen approaches and changes of focus, from short-to 246. C. C. Nehme et al. medium-and long-term, in organizations, government structures and their many links and relationships.
and having participatory approaches, namely:.11 strategic foresight exercises to enhance the competitiveenes of the Brazilian industrial sector in the global economy:
This approach considers that many forms of analysing the future of ST&I coexist and can be mobilized, individualll or in combination with others,
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
Moreover, it is heed crucial to the validation and implementtatio phases, both integral parts of this methodologgica approach,
A special remark is needed regarding this methodologgica approach to engage clients and stakeholders. To attain the desired outcomes
The changes and adaptations required in the methodologgica approach to increase the chances of success..The strategies developed to generate intangibles.
because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.
Competitive intelligence approaches produce better engagement than strategic foresight. Private sector stakeholders tend to become very active
and the configuration of the innovation systems The conception of the configuration of the three innovattio systems is established on the theoretical foundations of different system approaches.
before we build the new concept for an innovation system we first review the key concepts of each approach,
and differences across countries the approach illustrates how the institutions and mechanisms of a nation support technological and industrial innovattio within its borders (Nelson and Rosenberg 1993;
This is part of a new mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global in outlook and oriented towards more societal goals.
or even impossiibl to solve by single agencies or through rational planning approaches. This has been understood well for some time among academics
Grand challenges are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches. Even their meanings tend to be highly contesste by different actors Furthermore,
Multilevel governance approaches that acknowledge the principle of subsidiarity while ensuring coherence between global, regional (e g.
Certain traditions in the FTA family of approaches, particuularl technology assessment, have taken the reorientatiio of technological trajectories and innovation activities as an explicit goal.
and the need for an operational agenda that takes into consideration a context-sensitive approach required to address specific challenges.
and context-sensitive approach will be required that takes into account the nature of each challenge and the industries and sectors that need to react
Such socio-technical approaches refrain from simple policy recipes. Instead, they highlight co-evolution, multi-dimensionality, compleexit and multi-actor processes, conditions that,
By doing so, they place greater emphasis on holistic and multiple perspective approaches under which many potential levers for shaping the direction of innovation can be identified (e g. regulatory, financial, consumer behaviour etc.).
At the same time the Europe 2020 Strategy notes that a partnership approach should extend to EU committees, to national parliaments and national, local and regional authorities,
it advocates a strategic and integrated approach to research and innovation in dealing with grand challennge while also strengthening European competitiveness.
By promoting the inclusion of all relevant stakeholders they can facilitate cross-sectoral collaboration between the public and private sectors as well as between various industries, a multilevel governance approach,
EU) under a coordinated approach (through joint programming for example) to ensure the coordination and complementarity needed in regional, national and EU-level efforts to tackle grand challenges.
and applying a forward looking approach to situation/challenge at hand Knowledge diffusion FTA involves bringing together often disparate actors that might not normally interact to imagine
and join forces for designing common desirable futures Orienting European innovation systems. 149 contributions these would make to various innovation system functions. 7. Conclusions This paper has outlined the contours of an emerging mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global
Taking a systems of innovation approach, the paper also suggests that FTA can support the spanning of traditional boundaries that might
and allow decisions to be shaped within wider settings through new inclusive and participatory governance approaches. With regards to its capacity-building role FTA can contribute to the articulation of strategic visions that can guide search and selection processes,
and facilitate the application of fta approaches on a contining basis. Applying FTA in the framework of joint initiatives in dealing with grand challenges should aim both to find effective solutions for grand challenges
Notes 1. Following other authors, the notional use of‘function'in this paper should not be confused with functionalist approaches found in sociology.
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