We propose an approach which frames the wider societal requirements for FTA within specific forms of FTA systems,
The axes (see Fig. 1) highlight the divide between the primarily reactive approach to disruptive events
and ongoing processes of transformation and the need to use FTA to move towards more deliberate, proactive approaches to transformation.
improovin the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligeenc and preparedness for disruptive events through systematic approaches and shared insights and perceptioons creating an effective dialogue between key players in the different policy domains;
The integration mode is likely to lead to the implementation of normative approaches that support common vision-building and priority setting.
A much higher degree of policy coordination seems to be needed to address societal challennge as well as a much more continuous and‘embedded'approach to FTA.
The analysis of the selected papers on FTA attests to the richness of approaches in relation to different types of transformatiions governance modes
-and supply-side) approaches and the comprehensive analysis of possible measures in view of their combined effects on differren governance modes.
Contextualisation/embedding by approaches that are tailored to particular contexts: global, national, regional, local or sectoral.
Tiits and Kalvet (2011) learned from recent foresight exercises in Estonia that the Table 4. Diversity of FTA systems in practice Approaches in FTA systems Transformation types Governance modes Organisational models
2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
For instance, integration in view of central planning vs. competition in view of market forces defining urban development Individual regional foresight project‘Embedding foresight in transnatiiona research programming'Deals with deliberate approach to both rapid
‘intelligent piggybacking'approach is much more suitable for smaller catching-up economies than the traditional‘grand narratives'approach typically employed in larger advanced economies to define future developments at the cutting edge of a given field of technology.
which in turn requires tailored approaches and highly specific skills. Embedded and networked FTA facilities are particularly suitable to fulfil the following functions for innovation policy4 in such a dynamic context:.
Networked approaches to FTA have been growing in importance for several years, and this trend is likely to continue as part of a comprehensive package of elements for dealing with transformative change,
networking approaches delivering the 162. K. M. Weber et al. most recent information on weak signals, and FTA instituttion coordinating and integrating the different inputs
and the need for more proactive approaches to address pressing global challennges Institutions face greater complexity and difficulty in providing solutions on time,
building a continuous and shared approach to understand the present, exploring alternative futures and shaping the direction to follow, coupled with an evaluation of
Notes 1. This approach of drawing on the papers of the most RECENT FTA conference has been adopted,
has led also to a new global approach to research in many areas. Truly global science is an evolving
This was taken the approach in 2002 but had resulted in some problems absorbing the results into the ICSU strategic plan.
This approach was especially important in the first phase where numerous existing project meetings were able to set aside an hour
There are many different approaches to building scenarrio (for a useful short overview, see Bo rjeson et al. 2006).
The approach used for building exploratory scenarios in the ICSU exercise broadly aligned with a process previouusl developed by former Royal dutch shell Group staff,
While this approach to scenario building has some drawbacks, e g. a certain rigidity that can sometimes stifle creativity,
Such changes could have impacts on the approaches to science and the balance between national-scale versus international-scale science.
This can be taken as a strong signal of the likely interest of the science policy community in the scenarios. 4. 2 Lessons in conducting international foresight Reflecting on the approach taken in the ICSU foresight,
an approach that was used early on. Another challenge concerns accommodating some of the regional differences in perspective that undoubbtedl exist on the subject of international science cooperratio for grand challenges.
An effective approach to addressing complex global challenges arose from the nexus between fundamental and applied science.
In this regard, ICSU's systematic approach to international foresiigh is not unique, though the present authors have not found other examples that focus on mechanisms for internatiiona science collaboration.
The paper concludes by assessing the policy implications of the IPRM approach. Keywords: innovation policy; roadmapping;
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
and conclude by assessing the future potential of the IPRM approach. 2. Systemicity, foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
In our usage, policy design refers to an adaptive and experimental approach in which a selected variety of policy instruments are applied either simultaneously or successively.
In our approach, foresight has a specific role and thus one could talk about forward-looking policy design.
The second way to apply a roadmapping approach to policy design is to facilitate systemic change by identifying those societal needs
In the future, the move is expected to be towards a more customer-driven and flexible approach. There are signals that emerging user requirements highlight energy efficient
Use of life cycle approach in procurement PRODUCTS AND SOLUTIONS: Support to collaborative R&d; Facilitating commercialization of research results TECHNOLOGIES:
We discussed how the roadmapping approach can create strategic guidance for identifying the type of steps required for transformation towards a shared vision to take place.
We conclude this paper by emphasising two related contribuution that the roadmapping approach can bring to innovation policy and forward-looking policy design.
the roadmapping approach can combine issues of strategic intervention with potential lock ins and systemic interdependencies.
Identification of these complementary elements and associated interdependencies is an important contribution that a roadmapping approach can illuminate.
and propose a co-ordination approach to address this challenge. Section 3 applies the approach to some empirical observations on recent cases of transnational programming.
From there possible foresight principles in the context of transnational research programming are discussed, as well as the role foresight can play as an integrator of programming functioons The paper also looks at the implications for transnatiiona programming in Europe and elsewhere.
4 5 6 7 Knowledge exchange Knowledge clustering Level of strategic approach to S&t cooperation Degree of networking Joint infrastructure investments No instruments no cooperation 0 1
participatory and anticipatory co-ordination approach The complexity of the co-ordination challenge of transnatiiona research programming calls for approaches that can engage stakeholders horizontally from different policy and research areas as well as vertically and internationally from different countries and regions to support informed
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
and linking this to existing research programmes (see Fig. 2). The partners see the need to repeat such an approach at a certain frequency
flexible and decisive approach. It is envisaged also that the FPU will be sustained in the long term with additional tasks related to implementation of the SRA,
and to overcome differences in programming FPU aims to do continuous foresigght update SRA and extend lifetime of network beyond lifetime of ERA NET A small and decisive team aims to apply a flexible and adaptive approach,
It can also mean the establishment of a flexible and adaptive approach to foresight, which can change upcoming needs.
The use of a structured approach and exploitation of the internet can support the monitoring,
This approach is illustrated by the Urban Europe case, where a pilot call is planned to collect additional intelligence on future trends and scenarrio and support the construction of stakeholder communities and platforms.
in applying particippator approaches and in working with longerteer planning, or when the research and innovation systems and capacities of the countries involved are highly diverse. 5. Conclusions Recent efforts in transnational research programming indicate that the mobilising effect of embedded foresight activities can lead to novel networking and cross-feeding of research and innovation
What can we learn from three different approaches?''Working Paper SLPTMD (Department of International Development, University of Oxford.<
This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.
This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues.
thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007). The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,
3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively
as well as the different scanning approaches and scanning tools that were applied in the SESTI project. Section 3 provides a comparative analysis of the two scanning approaches
and the associated tools that were used in SESTI. Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.
Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions on how horizon scanning can be used to improve policy formulation and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
and issue-centred scanning There are different approaches which underpin the scanning process. One way of approaching scanning is to differentiate between exploratory
while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.
In the first approach emerging issues are identified and described by processing informatiio from different sources,
A refined method of exploratory scanning is offered by applying a more bottom-up approach where the analyst examines the observations and topics that different (independent) scanning communities focus upon,
or seeking and providing new possibilities for new energy technologies and infrastructurres However, within a real bottom-up approach,
Additional information and leads are obtained by participative approaches, for instance setting up a (SESTI) wiki, evoking Twitter activity around SESTI and more traditional methods such as a survey.
Whereas the above, bottom-up approach can be considered as hypothesisgenerrating the issue-centred approach can be seen rather as evaluating a hypothesis (the hypothesis of proposed emerging issues.
The issue-centred approach starts from the wide range of existing and potential emerging issues (hypotheses)
the two approaches should be seen as complementary (see Fig. 1). Exploratory scanning mainly refers to the first scanning phase (identification of weak signals)
and scanning tools Both of the above approaches used the internet as their main source of information.
However, an approach to processing the information is needed, as the signals can very quickly amount to thousands of entries.
In order to place the analysis of the different approaches and tools that were used in their correct context,
Within the issue-centred approach it is a very useful tool with which to identify potential emerging issues in a fast
Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.
Table 2). In this regard an evaluation across the different approaches and methods is difficult as their success is highly contextual.
and approaches (see Table 3). A second challenge is that the two different approaches (exploratory scanning
The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach, while the last two refer mainly to the issue-centred approach.
These combinatiion present different features in terms of the degree of automation of the tools that are used and the degree to
Table 4). Table 5 evaluates the three combined approaches based on the criteria mentioone in Table 3. The SESTI experience of applying these methods (not necessarily as combined above) revealed that it is importaan to have several alternative methods
Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at
and issue-centred horizon scanning processes to produce alerts but also to Table 4. Description of three combined approaches (a) Semi-automated,
participatory approach (b) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach (Twitter/wiki+processing of weak signals)( Focused expert review+text-mining)( Focused
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach (Twitter/wiki+processing of weak signals)( Focused expert review+text-mining)( Focused expert review+survey+conferences) Connection
Different approaches to scanning identifying and assessing potential emerging issues exist. It is clear that issues are dynamic,
Each type of approach and method has specific advantages and disadvantages. Overall, it can be said that the added value of emerging issue scans lies in the strategic combination of all available tools to broaden the spectrum of possible signals
participatory approach (b) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach Policy recommendations Medium High High Through discourses, networking, interacttio with experts.
Analytic Approaches to Political Discourse, pp. 203 31. Philadelphia, PA: John Benjamins. Van Rij, V. 2010a)‘ Joint horizon scanning:
futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
Despite this variabillity horizon scanning offers tested approaches for collecctin signals which:.Articulate credible observations about current or imminent changes (either sudden, gradual,
horizon scanning can serve as a systemmati approach to support the early identification and collective exploration of emerging issues.
Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach. BEPA emphasized that policy relevance was a crucial criterion in the selection of these reports.
In its approach, the workshop evolved from a loosely structured discussion of issues resulting from the scanning of reports to a collective sense-making process that focused on how such issues could be brought together into crosscutting challenges
Indeed, in comparison with more structured approaches such as Delphi studies a distinctive and defining feature of horizon scanning is that there are no strong a priori constraints on
the systematic engagement of diverse stakeholders calls may call for an equally diverse range of organizational approaches that establish appropriate incentives for effective stakeholder participation.
The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
and needs-oriented approaches versus a science and technology push. Grand challenges are discussed at many levels, for instance, the EU, the regions, nations,
Here the (mega-)trends and the global problems are derived from the‘tensions'described in this approach.
Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.
At the same time, cooperation between various knowledge domains within 60 Fraunhofer institutes is needed to address complex interdisciplinary system approaches in R&d.
Another approach to fostering cooperation and strategic areas of excellence is the identification of specific strategic future topics at the corporate level,
One of the approaches is described in Klingner and Behlau (2008. Successful implementation of such processes achieves several goals:
This approach started with a portfolio generation on the one hand, and the aim to identify important future fields for the Fraunhofer Society on the other hand.
This first approach was followed by a second process in 2008 (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
In a second survey, the themes that emerged were ranked according to a set of criteria. The survey identified 25 focus themes which were described
and technologydriiven the starting point of the processes was technologies and technological approaches. Both processes were started to enhance
This approach is common for a technological-driven organisation like the Fraunhofer Society. It fits with an attitude often associated with technicians
-and technology-driven approaches that make use of longteer thinking, but that the opposite (needs-driven) approaches are rare.
Some of these needs can be defined by the global/grand challenges. This does not mean that the entire research landscape should be focused on global/grand challenges alone
European research must focus on the grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well
This approach left the scientists enough freedom to find their own solutions. On the other hand, the often technically minded researchers are forced to think outside their normal boxes.
A needs-oriented approach and cross-institute problem-solving should open up new contract research markets in a 3 7 year perspective,
In this first part of the process, mainly politically driven proposed actions as well as technological approaches to solutions of the challenges were identified from the State of the Future report,
000 pages), a description of technological solution approaches and an annual adaptation of content. The 14th issue (Glenn et al. 2009) was used.
2) Extracting and evaluating technological solution approaches for each subchallenge (see Figs 3, 4 and 6:
the generalist team extracted the technological solution approaches mentioned in the text for each subchallenge.
Each technological solution approach was rated in terms of its fit with the Fraunhofer R&d portfolio and clustered into solution fields.
Fraunhofer future markets. 239 Figure 5. Example of assessment for subchallenges and technological approaches. Figure 6. Overview of entire process. 240.
eight were assessed as being applicable to technological solution approaches and were broken down into 30 subchallenges.
Within the 30 subchallenges, 233 technological approaches were extracted and synthesised into 18 solution fields with the appropriate Fraunhofer fit.
and technology organisations in Europe have their specific approaches to Fraunhofer future markets. 241 defining their R&d portfolio.
in order to broaden the scientific approach. However problemorieente proposals require more general thinking, e g. about the impact aspect.
With this top-down and bottom-up approach, a learning process was started towards needs-oriented thinking across the institutes.
Through the collaborative and transdisciplinary problem-solving approach, an awareness of the sustainability aspects was raised within Fraunhofer.
All of them already represent joint, interdisciplinary work beyond mere technological approaches. Therefore, the communication effect will go far beyond the mere projects.
Here, the new interdisciplinary approaches have started already. 6. 3 Lessons learnt and outlook Using global challenges as a starting point for an internal FTA PROCESS within the corporate strategic R&d planning was a new approach for Fraunhofer.
conceptually, the bottom-up generation of the solution approaches should induce collaborative problem-solving and was organised self by the institutes.
we expect this new demand-driven approach to have an impact on other Fraunhofer future processes:
A factor analysis approach',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 68: 131 49. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
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