Evidence

Evidence (160)
Historical evidence (3)

Synopsis: Evidence: Evidence:

While the optimism as regards the power of foresight exercises to actually shape innovation processes is founded at least in some qualitative evidence

Theory, Evidence and Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2004.41 W. Polt, K. M. Weber, Forschung, Technologie und Innovation für Wohlstand in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung.

Second, there is a growing interest in exploring how regulatory policies can be based more evidence and supported by empirical findings.

More evidence-based approaches to the assessment of regulatory quality allow a review of the effectiveness of policy tools used in practice

which we are able to provide original empirical evidence, but which are also adequate for performing regulatory foresight.

However, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the regulatory framework has been adapted to the emergence of new technologies,

Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology research, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (The netherlands), 2004.21 K. Blind, The Economics of Standards Theory, Evidence, Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham

Evidence from G-7 Countries, Industry Canada, Ottawa, 2004.28 A. Bassanini, E. Ernst: Labour Market Institutions, Product Market Regulation, and Innovation:

Cross country Evidence, ECO/WKP (2002) 2, OECD (ed.),Paris. 29 U. Blum, A. Töpfer, G. Eickhoff,

'In turn, the available evidence suggests that technological innovations, as well as the building of social capital, depend upon the degree to

Evidence from three foresight cases (UK, Sweden, and Malta) indicates that it is possible to identify internal criteria

Real world evidence is used to tune and parameterize the specific model representations used. In the following section we provide a brief and qualitative account of this model.

These claims are given in Table 3. Corresponding evidence from this case are displayed in this table, and further discussed below.

Armed solely with the evidence of the graph, it is not possible to recommend the appropriate form of social organization to enhance innovation.

The hierarchical random graph approach structured evidence of an existing technological network recognizing the development of new technological linkages shortly after they actually occurred in the market.

Finding supporting evidence for change was ease. Nonetheless, interpreting the meaning of these changes introduced a component of subjectivity.

We will present empirical evidence to support our claims from the experiences of implementing the RIF method in The swiss sanitation sector.

The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to the evidence based and from expertise to interaction based working methods.

for instance, defining the scenario methods the most creative and literature review evidence based, while future workshops are interactive and expert panels more for addressing expert opinions.

The slim evidence base aggravates the assessment, but the potential of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties

can draw on only scant empirical evidence to support their judgement. Findings presented in this article are thus necessarily preliminary.

But there is little evidence to connect these insights to resulting performance of the participating organisations.

There is evidence that the participants in Foresight come from the left-hand arm of the VALS 1 typology:

The evidence for this lies in the age, occupation, gender and background of the majority of Foresight participants who have been middle-to late-middle aged, professional managers and scientists, male and university graduates.

Erratic evidence from the study behind this paper also indicated this. The preliminary results from the study were discussed presennte

Moreover, evidence can be given of process mechanisms that have been conducive to the generation of rather conservative outcomes.

‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,

Over the past decades, many management domains have come to rely quite heavily upon empirical evidence. For example, manufacturing process management used to depend completely on tacit knowledge.

A script generates a table showing overall DOE project activity that each university evidences on fuel cells.

and supporting evidence-based or evidence-informed policy making. The conference will seek to understand further how far the institutionalisation (i e. embeddedness) of FTA supports both the achievement of measurable impacts and the strengthening of interaction s between research, higher education and innovation.

evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3

There is also evidence of growing efforts to bring research and innovation policy and strategy together and use of foresight for more joined-up policies and defining the appropriate policy mix.

it mainly provides evidence on how foresight impacts on policy-making and societal developments. The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects.

Consensual This process aims to provide new evidence and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications.

It is updated on a regular basis as new evidence and thinking emerge. This initiative is designed to result in improved quality of defence policy.

which is increasingly based on evidence base at all policy levels and for all policy domains. Furthermore, in order to better address major societal challenges with foresight and other FTA ACTIVITIES

Methods like Delphi are designed to elicit evidence about expert judgement concerning such prospects. Recourse to such expert judgement is often the logical step

But anecdotal evidence suggests that many FTA practitioners are simply reiterating the particular approaches with

Our evidence base as to good practice is based more often upon‘‘gut feelings''about what has and has worked not well over a series of FTA experiences,

so it would appear from anecdotal evidence that many professionals are somewhat distrustful of public representatives

Indeed, there is only limited empirical evidence, as opposed to practitioner lore and hunches, about the implications of these choices and procedures.

Our KM decisions are undertaken from a limited evidence base; we do not know how far the quality of FTA EXERCISES is impaired,

The working group issued a call for written evidence, held oral evidence sessions and workshops (aiming to include key stakeholders) and elicited public views via survey research and qualitative workshop methodologies.

The resulting report put much more focus on ethical issues and hazards than the earlier work had done. 11 A rather different tack was taken by the SWAMI study.

if any empirical evidence that the market behaves this way. Traditional regulatory models would impose mandatory rules on a company to ensure that it behaves in a socially responsible manner.

for which there is evidence in recent EU moves towards requirements for 100%recyclability, should be part of any new mantra for FTA.

comprising more than a quarter of the total of all respondents clear evidence of the substantial experience present at the FTA Conference.

and coherence of the response of national governments to the emerging economic difficulties was evidence that appropriate anticipatory intelligence was in place and available.‘‘

In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,

Some anecdotic evidence maybe some basic knowledge or some evidence about the effects of certain interventions is available,

but this is more like a‘‘black box'';''the actual cause-effect relations are understood neither very well nor can they be quantified. 3. Unknown unknowns.

anecdotical evidence and tacit knowledge (for example brainstorming or open space). Transport models show a certain slice or cut out of the web, with some selected nodes and the linkages between them.

Ridgeway, J.,Zawojewski, J. S. and Hoover, M. N. 2000),‘Problematising evidence-based policy and practice'',Evaluation and Research in Education, Vol. 14 Nos

) 3. 3. Tracing emerging irreversibilities Based on the evidence on the dynamics of expectations and agenda building processes as presented in the previous two paragraphs, we will now present main findings for each of the different cells

1. Evidence about the oblivion of territorial foresight among Spanish planners was gathered as part of doctoral academic activity (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.

and the city planning process. 4. Partial evidence for determining parametric and spatial implications in the study area was gathered in a research project financed by the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.,

Although the collection of evidence in a fragmented way by diverse means over a long period of time may a seem a very inefficient and tortuous way of conducting research,

some tentative conclusions can be drawn from the evidence and experience gathered over the last five years.

and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. to find the factual evidence to justify its policy recommendations.

Second, there is a growing interest in exploring how regulatory policies can be based more evidence and supported by empirical findings.

More evidence-based approaches to the assessment of regulatory quality allow a review of the effectiveness of policy tools used in practice

providing the evidence and the empirical data required for this new generation of evidence-based legislative procedures and policy actions,

as well as reinforcing the political accountability of policy (and law makers. With the incorporation of FTA instruments, the revision of laws and the design of future ones would be complemented with better quality assessment procedures.

as well as the process of replacing them with new ones, a more reliable and evidence-based procedure.

and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. Tuomi sees only a limited role for the identification of weak signals in understanding the future,

and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. Keywords: unpredictability; ontological expansion; anticipatory systems;

the levels of certainty and rationality could be increased by better evidence and knowledge, and progress can be measured against an ideal of perfect knowledge.

as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.

Although evidence-based policy-making may be practically useful in the sense that it generates a common frame for policy debates,

or present evidence of research may provide insufficient reason for support, the claimed possibilities in the future justify the costs.

and to provide empirical evidence of its contribution to sustain the advantage of the firm over time.

The major evidence of this scepticism may be the fact that today foresight is addressed not specifically by most MBA curricula;

empirical evidence In this section, we illustrate the main findings of our research. We grouped our sample firms into two clusters on the basis of the similarities in the kinds of drivers of change they faced and the foresight approaches they adopted:

Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;

Evidence from the oil majors. Strategic management Journal 24, no. 6: 491 517. Hambrick, D c. 1982.

Evidence from digital imaging. Strategic management Journal 21, nos. 10 11: 1147 61. Tsoukas, H, . and J. Shepherd. 2004.

rationale and evidence 2 Potential impact (global and national; emerging indications; timescales 3 Potential disruptive factors trend breakers, accelerators, wild cards 4 Connectivity and contingencies links with other drivers and trends 5 Challenges that this presents

VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 33 outcomes from the consultation and the empirical evidence gathered, with an emphasis on connectivity between the external environment and the national issues identified.

while patent analysis provides a more evidence-based view (Popper, 2008. 2. 3. 2 Overall procedures of the mapping.

and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision-making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches,

finally, given the increasing stress on robust evidence for policy, accessing and combining different types of information

and on the possible combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches 22 25 the literature provides little evidence on systematic comparison

Qualitative data can provide additional evidence to quantitative models by inclusion of new indicators created from quantified expert judgments.

Remarkably, evidence stemming from the forecasting communities on cases combining qualitative and quantitative methods is limited rather,

in order to reduce its distorting effects on the interpretation of evidence and its decision-making powers. There are two weaknesses in this claim.

a stocktaking of basic knowledge (including e g. relevant statistical evidence, existing scenarios and corresponding outputs,

evidence in this paper has shown practical examples of combinations of these types of methods. The different and highly heterogeneous contributions to the 2011 International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis in this area share a common bottom line:

what evidences how evolutionary thinking permeates modern human thought! Most authors agree that it is impossible to define dinnovationt in a context-free manner,

and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved? The three questions represent a specific perspective linking action and decision-makingwith issues of (i) emergence,

The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 17 scenario projects (see Appendix 1. for an overview of the cases.

and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved?.By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice,

evidence from Germany, J. Technol. Transf. 34 (2009) 320 342.9 M. C. Roco, Nanoscale science and engineering:

Like De Moor et al. this paper uses established Foresight theories applied to selected cases that provide evidence in support of their hypotheses.

1 there is evidence of the usefulness of an anticipatory systems approach. This strand of thinking considers anticipation to be a fundamental attribute of this universe

The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 process are two attempts to combine the strong Danish tradition for political compromises, negotiations and stakeholder inclusion with evidence-and expertise-based prospective elements.

In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies, such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews.

evidence, expertise, interaction and creativity, or combinations of these abilities. Creative abilities refer to the mixture of original and imaginative thinking.

evidence refers to reliable documentation, such as statistics and indicators or forecasting of economic development through macroeconomic modelling.

Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods

The two processes did include expertise-and evidence-oriented elements (such as the OECD horizontal scan in the Research2015 process or the fact sheets in the Globalisation Council process),

Evidence in practice Knowledge production and dissemination of knowledge in society People and societal design Sustainable transport and infrastructure Better life-space space for life and growth Cultural understanding in a globalised world Changing

evidence in practice 20 0 People and societal design Sustainable transport and infrastructure 25 0 Table 3 Overview of the Research2015 process 33.

According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,

The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,

There is evidence of learning-by-doing, as people explore and discover how to use the insights of foresight studies in strategic policy processes.

and the study of evidence-based policy and scientific advice regimes. Nonetheless, there was a push to extend concepts and theoretical insights from these areas to a larger variety of social sciences and humanities disciplines, such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics

7. Furthermore there is evidence that firms'efforts are concentrated currently on activities targeted at strategy design,

there is no clear evidence yet that this dynamic conteex has led to a significant increase in the use of such approaches.

while purely qualitative approaches tend to have a weaker evidence base. The principles proposed by Keenan

Evidence-based***Evidence-based*Multidisciplinarity***Multidisciplinarity***Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources*Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources*Action oriented*Action oriented*Total**Total

experts were asked to write synthesis papeers based on a number of cited evidence sources, to explore each issue,

the scans are positioned as part of the policy evidence base. The Danish scan focused on the policy domains of all ministries

Supporting evidence and issue description Another common question concerned the high level of aggregation of the issues in the descriptions in the scan highlights the danger of superficiality.

and evidence base where needed. Finally, the handling of science issues in the scans requires a careful approach.

making sure that existiin scientific evidence is overlooked not or contradiccted with the need to point to potential future scientific developments for

which by definition little (or no) authoritative evidence is yet available. The successful approach to this taken by the UK's Delta Scan was to seek the views of 250 leading scientists

along with the evidence each side draws on to make its case, rather than seeking to choose one view over another

Most of the articles referenced in this section proviid evidence for the broad benefits, both direct and indirect, associated with foresight exercises.

better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*

Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,

4 5) attribute this discrepancy betwwee theory and practice mainly to the lack of empirical evidence on the benefits of userinvollvemen and user-oriented strategies compared to traditional research and development.

Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of technology policy Recent overviews of the empirical literature suggest that the empirical evidence as to the effectiveness of subsidies is not homogeneous (David et al.

we interpreted this result as empirrica evidence that the impact of the CTI subsidies was correlated positively to the magnitude of the subsidy quotient.

Hence, for these cases we have some empirical evidence that the impact on innovation performance is dependent on the relative magnitude of the subsiid granted.

Evidence from the German service sector, ZEW Discussion paper No. 02-04, Mannheim, Germany: ZEW. David, P, B Hall and A Toole 2000.

A meta-analysis of the econometric evidence. Kykloos 57 (1), 87 102. Georghiou, L and D Roessner 2000.

A review of the evidence. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 449 469. Heckman, J, H Ichimura, J Smith, J. and P Todd 1998.

This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.

Drawing on evidence from three cases on foresight processes in research programming they highlight both the value that FTA can bring to the programming process,

The experience of FTA practitioners in implementing foresight tools provides further evidence of the effectivenees of particular tools in meeting particular challenges in the most appropriate ways.

Case study evidence is a core The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 137 feature of every FTA conference.

These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.

and the use of methods that rely simultaneously on evidence, creativity, expertise and interaction, bestowed methodological robustness on the process and provided quality to the results..

Evidence-based, joined-up R&i policy. Consensus-building and effectiiv engagement of civil society. Programmes and projects.

despite reporting on experiences derived from a single foresight exercise, indicate increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA.

our analysis shows increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA and exploitation of FTA networks to provide agile and strategic support for decision-making. 3. 2 Reflecting on the way forward with FTA systems The above review of recent research work indicates a consideerabl diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems with coexisting diverse

Such initiatives would help to support evidence-based policy-making. Changing mindsets are needed in order to prepare and sensitise for using FTA in preparation of structural changes,

and the UN Environment Programme in 1987 to carry out integrated assessments of scientific evidence. It has engaged over 3,

Already, there is evidence that some member organisations have started to use the exploratory scenarios in this way and ICSU hopes that more will follow

This provides some evidence on a potentially significant role for foresight in facilitating and integrating different functions of programming

or no evidence-based record. By way of engaging stakeholders in the creation and codification of tacit knowledge (Nonaka 1994), foresight synthesises key findings for decision-makers from fragmented information and expert recommendations.

Towards this end, the case studies in Section 3 and numerous other studies36 show evidence of the benefits of applying internet-based soluttion to obtain fast

This provided some evidence on a significant role for foresight in facilitating and integrating different functions of programming.

It may even be used as a highly evidence-based source to provide plausible discontinuities in the development of scenarios.

thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007). The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,

Timing seems to be a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak

Once evidence is built up the claim for considering them becomes more accepted and recognised. However, the signal will no longer be novel

social constructs that are based partly evidence, and partly the results of the imagination, thinking and debating that takes place within different segments of society including scientific communities.

Therefore horizon scanning is not merely about searching for signals and their factual evidence. It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,

This means that not only the evidence-based plausible storyline in the identified future narrative counts.

At the same time, horizon scanning has to be accepted as an additional source of evidence for policy-making. Notwithstanding the above, experience has shown also that the effective selection

by definition, lie beyond current horizons, there is often only scarce and scattered evidence to support the collection of signals and the assessment of their significance.

But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.

which included both evidence-based and new emerging trends, wild cards and even brief descriptions of anticipated impacts and prospective policy recommendatiions Here,

if there are no pointers to underlying evidence about the issues or the insights that may have guided their aggregation.

Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12. SEC (2010) 1161 Final.

sociologists and researchers from different disciplines tried to find more evidence for megatrends. They made use of different trend lines from historical data and identified longlasstin developments, sometimes in combinations of more than one line, with large impacts that were identified additionally.

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