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Trends were appearing in terms of focus of countries at different stages of economic development with those countries with lower development levels favouring a socioeconomic focus while those with higher levels of economic development lean towards a techno-economic focus.
one can observe similar developments in technology assessment where the growing prominence of social, economic, environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,
Technology policy and Economic Performance: Lessons from Japan, Pinter, London, 1987.45 B.-A. Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation, Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 1992.46 A. Bergek, S. Jacobsson, B
policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources, as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems now established in most OECD countries.
but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
Although these approaches largely failed, due to the inbuilt simplification of the actual dynamics of social, economic and technological developments, some studies nevertheless provoked a lively discussion about the future 14
prospect the potential impacts of current research, technology and regulatory policy, focus selectively on economic, technological, social and ecological areas as well as to start monitoring and detailed research in these fields.
Studies in economic history, organizational dynamics and institution theory have given also rise to the notion of paths.
New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1987.37 P. A. David, Clio and the economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review, vol
Sci. 17 (2)( 1987) 257 293.44 M. Callon, Techno-economic Networks and Irreversibility, in: John Law (Ed.),A Sociology of Monsters?
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.45 M. Callon, The Dynamics of Techno-economic Networks, in:
as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.
'4 Notwithstanding the importance of knowledge in previous types of societies, several authors acknowledge a shift in the economic structure of modern societies away from a‘material'input driven economy towards a knowledge-based
and impacts (both direct and indirect) and with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment.
as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. The model presented in Fig. 3a
societal and economic factors coupled with various policies and regulations may give rise to a number of future trends, some
successful regions Research agenda An appropriate balance between societal and techno-economic issues Focus on techno-economic issues;
and the societal and technoeconnomi requirements of an ERIA in the Double success EU Universities understand the societal and techno-economic requirements of an ERIA in the Double success EU,
particularly relevant for universities to play their societal role by better understanding the close relationships between societal and techno-economic issues,
mainly integrating disciplines relevant for tackling techno-economic (competitiveness) issues (i e. somewhat neglecting societal issues) 34 The likely impacts of further drivers,
e g. how to meet the new social and economic requirements; how to take advantage of major technological,
The actual economic and institutional arrangements necessary to create flexible and distributed networks may have been captured in the regional development literature 13.
Today a balanced consideration of environmental, social and economic aspects is necessary 16. Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness,
context factors like economic, demographic and settlement development, future political culture and environmental regulations. They select the most influencing
These economic, ecological, social and governance objectives were elaborated in more detail and specified for the region.
when hygienic standards declined in a dire economic context. Cost minimization would receive a high priority
including its environmental, social and economic perspectives. The High level Expert Group appointed by the European commission crystallized these trends by defining foresight as follows 5:
but also economical analysis. This section describes the methodological developments of risk assessment in the context of industrial safety,
which have political, ecological, social, technological and economical effects in society. 3. 4. Positioning the projects according to some important dimensions Könnölä et al.
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards broader concerns including the whole innovation process with its environmental, social and economic perspectives.
observing, and interpreting the future directions and consequences of societal, economic, and technological change, but also the methodological approaches used in their analysis vary greatly.
Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2
and soon in early 2000s reached a position among leading nations for example according to competitiveness reports of IMDANDWORLD Economic Forum (WEF).
and resembles economic, industrial and business barometers in its attempt to grasp future developments. The purpose of a technology barometer is to give data of how favorable and competitive the Finnish innovation environment is assessed to be now and in the future.
Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.
In the knowledge-value society, innovation, technology development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas, and their active exploitation, are all inherent elements contributing to the basic values and culture of the society.
The combination of the indicator-based comparative study and the future-oriented survey into one instrument creates a unique platform for the further analyses of the economic
which is a combination of social and economic scientific methods, calls for a high transparency of the methods used as well as transparency of all the utilized data.
JRC (2002) and compilation by OECD. Area/name of composite indicator Economy Composite of Leading indicators (OECD) OECD International Regulation Database (OECD) Economic Freedom of the World
Index (Economic Freedom Network) Economic Sentiment Indicator (EC) Internal Market Index (EC) Business Climate Indicator (EC) Environment Environmental sustainability Index (World
Economic Forum) Wellbeing Index (Prescott-Allen) Sustainable development Index (UN) Synthetic Environmental Indices (Isla M.)Eco-indicator 99 (pre consultants) Concern about environmental problems
(Parker) Index of Environmental Friendliness (Puolamaa) Environmental policy Performance Index (Adriaanse) Globalization Global Competitiveness Report (World Economic Forum) Transnationality Index (UNCTAD) Globalization
knowledge management 3. 3. 2. Entrepreneurship and economic regeneration 3. 3. 3. Networking and openness in international activities 3. 4. Sustainable development 3. 4. 1. Social
technological, economic, ecological and political trends has become sort of a mainstream practice, too 6. Our analysis underlines the need to treat political context factors
She is a member of the Global Agenda Council on Strategic foresight of the World Economic Forum. 1207 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207
In the 1990s most of these programmes were driven by the economic mantra of technologically dependent competitiveness and its importance to national economies.
Because of their overt techno-economic purpose Foresight has relied on the opinions of a relatively narrow body of technologically oriented people.
For inclusivity these three questions are interrelated in social, technical, economic, ecological, political and value/norm (acronym STEEPV) aspects of society.
It is known that individuals move around the hierarchy with the passage of time and according to economic and other circumstances.
economic and societal landscapes will co-evolve. Therefore, those wishing to develop strategies for managing nanotechnology emergence
The idea from evolutionary economics of a selection environment indicates the part played by economic, institutional and social factors in shaping a technology. 4 Braun for example describes the early notions of innovation as being characterised by a‘linear'view of innovation as an automatic spill over process between basic knowledge
Green et al. 16 in their comparison of the techno-economic networks (micro-level analysis stemming from sociology)
and techno-economic paradigms (macro-level analysis stemming from evolutionary economics similar to Nelson & Winters natural trajectories) critique both analyses for missing the interplay between both.
New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1987.16 K. Green, R. Hull, A. Mcmeeking, V. Walsh, The construction of the techno-economic:
Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order, Walter de Gruyter, Berlin New york, 1998.22 M. Callon, Techno-economic networks and irreversibility, in:
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 919 and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economical and social benefits'(Martin 1995).
First, foresight exercises include future societal and economic needs and possibilities in the setting of priorities.
and objectives for foresight The rationale for carrying out public foresight exercises is often related to the political goal of increasing economical competitiveness by means such as technological or societal innovation.
and it is economical and competitive (and not to better understand nature and humankind). Foresight processes form a rational-analytical decision machine, capable of identifying areas that yield the greatest economic and social benefits.
Foresight practitioners (process consultants or core groups) play a major role in these processes, feeding results to decision-makers in charge of implementing the choices.
which is part of the Ministry of Economic and Businessaffairs (which also covers energy). The programme and its strategies are coordinated with general national energy polices and often also with other policy areas;
but the Ministte for Economic and Business affairs through the Energy Authority had overall political responsibility
REFU) is an advisory board for the Energy Authority and the Ministry of Economic and Business affairs.
in order to better ensure that additional public investment in R&d will yield expected economic and social benefits.
The Centre of Competence in Molecular Medicine was launched in 2008 as an initiative of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Health and the MCHER.
particularly of the seeming lack of vision in the proposals and an apparent weakness in reflecting economic and societal needs.
National priorities National priorities (Research areas)( Research domains) Innovation in services Business service design and innovation Fostering the economic and legal environment for Innovation performance and development of the financial systems
'i e. areas of potential economic success which may only be achieved through a knowledge base developed in Luxembourg.
and depend upon a specific constellation of economic, technological, legislative and societal factors. Foresight exercises might provide a platform for nascent niche areas to gain greater prominence,
2.‘Competence niches'refer to areas of potential economic success that develop from the establishment of an exceptionally strong knowledge base in a particular domain. 3. As the GDP of Luxembourg has increased by 50%(from¤22 to 33.1 billion) between 2000 and 2006,
In fact, in response to the economic crisis in early 2009, the City of Vienna decided to spend an additional¤60 million on research infrastructures and cutting-edge research as part of a broader economic and employment stimulus package.
Its implementation has been accelerated by the economic crisis in 2008/2009 that has led to an increase in funding for RTI as part of city's economic
Social-economic, cognitive and political stakeholder image construction The initial justification for involving young people in the vision project
One important aspect of creating an image of young people as primary stakeholders was their social and economic position within the community.
Thus a specific social-economic image of young people as stakeholders was indispensable for their participation.
The assumed lack of spatial and economical interests, however, was accompanied also by a request expressed by the municipal project leadership:
Economic No capitalist interests No ideas about physical projects! Political Their future ideas are unstructured basically and non-reflexive The contributions would need narrative structure
Her main interests are negotiations of economic and social value in future orientation, reflexivity and stakeholder participation as well as collective scenario writing,
According to The United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP 2009) good governance has eight major characteristics.
Apart from covering economic and some other sciences (as a topic of scientific inquiry in their own right), this panel was ascribed a horizontal role
so that it supported the other panels by collecting statistical data on R&i systems and economic forecasts.
and lock in by historical events, Economic Journal 99 (394)( 1989) 116 131.30 W. B. Arthur, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, University of Michigan Press
The second group is distinguished by focus on a particular policy domain, economic or otherwise, and use foresight to develop policy (or business strategy).
However, the approach also emphasises the means by which framework conditions affect complex linkages within and between industries and the influence of social, economic and cultural factors.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.
which separates development issues into social and economic factors, emphasising that material gains are not sufficient measures or preservers of human well-being 14.
A whole class of economic models, routinely used to inform policy, are based on assumptions about economic affairs tending towards equilibrium that have very little relation with the behaviour of businesses (especially innovating enterprises).
Of course, Newtonian mechanics work well enough for everyday purposes, so their displacement of Einstein's theory of relativity may not be too bothersome.
when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
(and time) to examine the underpinning assumptions of models (not to mention intellectual familiarity with the conceptual underpinnings of social and economic models).
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
, A. Geldart, The social and economic challenges of nanotechnology, Swindon Economic and Social science Research council, 2003 (available at:
from the Science to the Social the social, ethical and economic aspects of the debate, Swindon, Economic and Social research Council, 2007 (available at http://www. esrc. ac. uk/ESRCINFOCENTRE/Images
The challenge to the conventional mantra that economic not human, development, depends on the advancement of science
economic and juridical decisions in a dialogue process with the political authorities. Governance and regulatory concepts imply a modified description of what regulation is and how it works, where the regulatory limits of state authority and the potential of society to influence
other than their shareholders and their economic performance, to take society's, and the environment's interests into account.
economic; spatial; cultural; and institutional-political: the interdependencies among the major elements are suggested in Fig. 2. The social response to sustainability,
an emphasis on environment and community stewardship often invoking the so-called triple bottom line of economic, social,
Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
Nevertheless, companiesmust ensure theirown economic survival in a competitive and volatile business environment while dealing with social and environmental issues 31.
thus reinforcing corporate strategy by advancing social conditions creating economic and social shared value. 5. 4. Strategic corporate social responsibility
and addressing social constraints to competitiveness are powerful tools for creating economic and social value,
The headline message from the 2006 World Economic Forum at Davos was that we are shifting from a world characterised increasingly by resource constraints to one which
thus social and economic goals into alignment and improving a firm's long-term business prospect. 6 Responsive CSR comprises two elements 29:
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
So how does the practical reality of participation of social and economic agents and civil society at large, in the new institutions and procedures look like?
In business this is summarised as the triple bottom line or the creation of shared value through reconciling economic
This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
The conventional economic mantra has persisted far beyond its‘sell by'date, a point made forcefully at least as early as 1972 in the publication of the‘‘Limits to Growth''38.
United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (2008. 10 COM, European Governance:
Fourth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, European communities, 2007.20 C. H. Cagnin, An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
literature review and research options, European Management Journal 23 (1)( 2005) 27 36.31 U. Steger, A. Ionescu-Somers, O. Salzmann, The economic foundations of corporate
40 H. Z. Evan, Seminar at Economic Commission of Europe, Warsaw, 1973.41 F. Davitaya, Changes in the Atmosphere and Some Problems of its Protection, in Society and the Environment:
bio-neural evolution, rising new economic leaders and directions, reduced personal privacy; These are described both in terms of challenges and potential opportunities for civilization.
Increased tensions for R&d ownership Solid waste limits industrial activities and life in urban centres Capital shift from‘‘W to E''to‘‘E to W''Continued rise of Asia as economic,
and response of the US toward China's growth Kyoto protocol full implementation Political resistance to economic globalization and deregulation Rising economies demand for energy, electricity drives modernisation
and puts extreme stress on infrastructure Economic measures to meet international environmental commitments Growing localisation in response to supply chain vulnerability Foreign affairs fail to be harmonised to cope with global issues Patterns
because of oil price increase causes travel decline Nano-facilitated energy conversion alters energy economic mix Ecology Economy 7 Western world becomes a national/corporate welfare state BRICS rapidly overtake western economy
and coherence of the response of national governments to the emerging economic difficulties was evidence that appropriate anticipatory intelligence was in place and available.‘‘
Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Introduction Transport is highly crucial to economic wealth and quality of life.
At the same time, the transport system is confronted with many challenges that reduce economic vitality and quality of life such as climate change, the emission of pollutants and noises, accidents, congestion;
‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,
or an extension to pure CBA in cases where important effects cannot be monetised MCA allows decision makers to include a full range of social, environmental, technical, economic,
as they deal with deeply habitual behaviour and complex connections between social, political, environmental and economic factors.
relying on heavy industry Economic growth Stable growth Stable growth Slow growth Stable growth Basis of economic structure (industry) Energy scarce service sector,
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
and Business administration from the Turku School of economics and is currently preparing his Phd in Economic Sociology at the University of Turku.
When the technology becomes part of our economic and social system, social impacts can be observed. However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult.
An integral part of the Nanoned programme (3%of the budget) is the assessment of social, political, economical and environmental/health issues.
NGO's and other societal actors articulate the social, political and economic aspects of the new technological field.
and thus, will have an impact in all areas of economic activities (examples are the materials production industry, pharmaceutical industry, electronics industry).
Still, there are huge economic incentives to shrink devices further, because the speed, density and efficiency of microelectronic devices all rise rapidly as the minimum feature size decreases.
Socio-demographic, economic and technological changes were taking place at a fast speed with nonlinear patterns
and project long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. 2. Vision. Foresight elaborates a guiding strategic vision,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001. However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm
economic models and public policies towards SD. 2. Horizontal axis. Showed the availability of resources needed to achieve the sustainable development goals in the future.
This axis included all critical uncertainties regarding the abundance or scarcity of technological, economic, human, institutional, and natural resources.
In this pattern, there is a reorganisation of spare economic resources towards nonprofit and Third Sector activities.
compared to its economic and consumption requirements. The successive emergence of new technological innovations seems to conjure up environmental threats
Despite the economic cycle's ups and downs, the Spanish economy keeps growing at an acceptable rate.
economic achievements have been at the expense of high environmental costs, social inequities and territorial imbalances. Scenario C:
Public and private agents are fully aware of the need for sustainable development due to a lack of response by the economic and technological realm.
Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
when economic and environmental crises are recurrent, resources are scarce and social attitudes are very favourable towards the implementation of strict SD models (see Figure 6). Due to difficulties in enacting
A strong government, backed by a wide spectrum of the electorate, is formed to implement effective policies against the economic and environmental crisis. Regional
Due to a long economic recession and the scarcity of resources, social movements of all types and conditions have gained momentum to the point that they can counterbalance the power of political parties and the influence of economic agents.
The predominant philosophy of the‘‘green paradigm''scenario will be to thrive in economic and social terms with lower consumption of energy, water and natural resources.
algorithm Economy Unemployment rate hab(%)14.2 Very low 5. 1 Low 7. 3 Very high 16.4 Simple mathematical algorithm Predominant economic sectors%Basic
and forestry activities 37 Economic trend analysis Electric energy consumption MWH/pc (annual) 3. 98 Medium 4 Medium-high 4. 9 Low
but actively seeking employment and willing to work Predominant economic sectors. Percentage of predominant activity in relation to the total number of existing jobs Electric energy consumption.
In the‘‘back to basics''scenario, sustainable development will be imperative due to the lack of energy resources and low economic activity.
Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly
Suggested strategies for Scenario C. The back to basics scenario is dominated by a high level of social frustration due to a longstanding economic recession and the lack of an adequate response by previous governments.
B Build a social fortress based on family networks and Third Sector organizations to survive in a tough economic context.
so as to promote the SD concept amongst citizens, economic agents and public bodies. Whichever scenario materialises in the near future, the sustainability paradigm in Spain will be achieved,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co
and to facilitate better social, economic and political participation. Interestingly enough, the‘‘Participatory Platform will also craft populated virtual worlds very much like our real world,
and simulation techniques aimed at uncovering future societal, economic and environmental trends. Through the use of modelling instruments, legislators would
First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,
complementing ex ante evaluations (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2003. Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions
Rather than today's primarily‘‘reactive''work, according to which Law responds to observed economic trends and past societal events,
but also from an economic, political or a social perspective. PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
and analyse the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical issues related to identity, privacy and security in the forecasted
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2003),‘Regulatory performance: ex post evaluation of regulatory policies'',Proceedings of the OECD Expert Meeting, September, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Porter, A l. and Cunningham, S w. 2005
), Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ. Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
and from the change in economic and societal patterns initiated by the almost ubiquitous usage of these technologies.
In the last years, in many countries due to economic and social pressures there is a shift of focus towards technologies that stimulate
or will contribute to economic prosperity and sustainable development (for an up-to-date and comprehensive overview see Ref. 3). On the other hand,
even the engineering and economic feasibility has not yet been clarified. What does that mean for the technology assessment of nanotechnology?
Nanomaterials show great economic potential e g. by substituting other materials or by making available new functionalities and thus enabling new products and creating new markets.
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