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And it is enhanced by coherent actions of a range of key decisionmakker in research policy, economy and society.
In particular the increased modularity of technological solutions that is a key tenet of the network economy is an argument for considering elementary options as more loosely coupled.
In a globalised and interdependent economy, not even the largest countries are in a position to fully dominate technoloogica development,
. 75,1985, pp. 332 337.38 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.536 D. K. R. Robinson
namely the goal of becoming the most competitive and dynamic knowledgebaase economy in the world. 3 In parallel,
'4 Notwithstanding the importance of knowledge in previous types of societies, several authors acknowledge a shift in the economic structure of modern societies away from a‘material'input driven economy towards a knowledge-based
input economy. They associate the increasing role of knowledge in the emerging knowledge societies with the increased density
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.
Seen in the context of a transition economy and a political system under extreme pressure to embrace change during the EU pre-accession phase,
Public policy in Knowledge-based Economies. Foundations and Frameworks, Edward Elgar, 2003.12 H. Nowotny, P. Scott, M. Gibbons, Rethinking Science.
and economy in the 12th to 15th century in Europe as this major institutional innovation is described by P. A. David, masked in the language of our contemporary discussions of university research and training policies 1,
globalisation of the economy and research; emergence of new research players; changing science society links and societal demands towards universities;
J. Econ. 18 (5)( 1994) 463 514.14 B.-Å. Lundvall, S. Borrás, The Globalising Learning Economy:
Towards a Knowledge-Based Economy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2003.39 OECD, Main Science and Technology indicators, OECD, Paris, 2006.40 M. Thorne (Ed.),Universities
disciplines and intellectual traditions and paradigms and this we believe is consistent with the dynamism of transition to a knowledge-based economy;
In many respects the BMBF foresight demonstrates how in practice many of the new approaches are actively engaging a changing view of policy for the knowledge economy.
Securing Competitive advantage in the Information Economy, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.42 JRC and IPTS FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight guide in http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/4 methodology/framework. htm (read May 28th 2009).
Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology.
such knowledge is important for comparing the innovation performance of nations to other economies. Finland is among the countries improving her position in worldwide performance comparisons
The theoretical framework of the barometer is based on the evolution of economies from industrial development phase to sustainable knowledge society.
when competition is not only between multinational and other enterprises but also between economies and innovation systems. Comparisons are based on a number of different indicators,
composite indicators or survey based studies providing comparisons in a wide range of fields like economy, society, education, innovation system, or sustainable development.
The future development of the economy and innovation system will be derived in part from the path dependent historical context
For example, the Japanese futurist Yoneji Masuda and the American sociologist Daniel Bell have stated that the essential dimensions of a new society would be seen in the emerging service economy, the role of theoretical knowledge, and technology development.
The theoretical framework of transitional phases of economies created by contemporary social scientists was accepted widely as the platform for constructing the barometer instrument.
and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,
Structural characteristics, dynamics and knowledge intensity differ essentially also among developed economies, and the entire economic systems or their sub-systems are in different development phases.
Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.
The central role of information is apparent in the economy, production, working life, education and schooling, etc.
According to the indicators of sustainable development Sweden, Denmark and The netherlands proved to be leading of the rated economies followed by Finland.
in order to comply with the ongoing changes in the economy from resource-based structures into competence-based ones.
has generated a vivid national discussion of the strengths and weaknesses as well as the future directions of the Finnish economy and innovation system.
but furthermore the related national comparative examination gives additional and more detailed insights into the discussion of the future development of the national economy and innovation system.
moreover on different factors affecting the national economy and innovation system. For example, political changes and elections,
JRC (2002) and compilation by OECD. Area/name of composite indicator Economy Composite of Leading indicators (OECD) OECD International Regulation Database (OECD) Economic Freedom of the World
in Knowledge-based Economy (EC) Performance in Knowledge-based Economy (EC) Technology Achievement Index (UN) General Indicator of Science and Technology (NISTEP) Information and Communications technologies
Economy, Society and Culture, vol. I, Blackwell, Cambridge, MA, 1996.12 M. Castells, The Power and Identity, The Information age:
Economy, Society and Culture, vol. II, Blackwell, Cambridge, MA, 1997.13 M. Castells, The End of the Millennium, The Information age:
Economy, Society and Culture, vol. III, Blackwell, Cambridge, MA, 1998. Torsti Loikkanen is a Senior Research scientist
quality of life, the economy, the environment etc. The topics that were chosen and identified during the search phase should be checked and by a broader information base,
But in detail, there were differences when looking at the relevancy for economy, relevancy for the quality of life, relevancy for the environment, and so on...
At the same time, it is exactly the capability to combine diverse elements in new ways to respond to change which characterises the quality of innovation systems within a learning economy.
Institutional and Technological change in Japan's Economy, Routledge, London, 2005.1196 K. Cuhls et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 22 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
In the 1990s most of these programmes were driven by the economic mantra of technologically dependent competitiveness and its importance to national economies.
Finland begins to invest in nanotechnology for paper processing (a major contributor to the Finnish economy.
One example, Finland begins to invest in nanotechnology for paper processing (a major contributor to the Finnish economy) Anticipatory coordination and lock in:
Finnish economy begins to suffer due to the high sunk investments into nanotechnology based infrastructure. Public outcry as consumer organisations identify major issues in a number of sectors which could hold potential risk with no protection for the consumer (the house of cards collapses) Window of opportunity for selectors:
Rev. 75 (1985) 332 337.27 W. B. Arthur, Positive feedbacks in the economy, Scientific American (February), 1990, pp. 80 85.28 R. Garud, P
a significant difference between today's knowledge-based economies and the industrial economies of 30 or 50 years ago is that technological development has become crucial for economic development
the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
4) to create positiiv external economies through the exchange of information, knowledge and vision; and (5) to facilitate the formation of markets (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001.
Rather, foresight is a field of practice with origins in several other more or less established academic disciplines such as evolutionary economy, strategy, technology assessment or social studies of science, futures studies.
that of science, technology, economy and society in general. In the perspective of strategic positioning (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand,
ICT Infrastructure Telecoms Voip Social & human sciences Economy, policies, institutional framework Economy and finance Dynamics of financial wealth creation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december
Second, it is clear that a forward-looking process like foresight needs to be underpinned by sufficient and appropriate‘objectivised'data, e g. publication data, statistics on the national R&d environment, reports on the state of economy, environment or society
Law, Economy and Finance and Social sciences and Humanities. 7. Since the thematic fields had been analysed and structured to different levels of depth during the first phase,
and the economic development priorities in the various sectors of the economy. 9. The rationale for presenting EWS participants with a list of‘ready-made'research domains was to prevent discussions starting from scratch.
What is the‘knowledge economy'?'Knowledge intensity and distributed knowledge bases. Discussion papers 06. Maastricht: United nations University, Institute for New technologies.
developing organizational foresight in the knowledge economy',11 13 july 2002, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas, and J. Shepherd, 77 97. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
and economic crisis of 2008 09) was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments, due to its relatively small size and the structure of its economy.
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
Evolving foresight in a small transition economy. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 179 201.
or to legitimate results but more proactively to embed them in the strategies of organisations across the economy and society.
and lock in by historical events, Economic Journal 99 (394)( 1989) 116 131.30 W. B. Arthur, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, University of Michigan Press
In an attention economy, products compete with every other product on the market. If a company wants to attain mind share in a large segment of the consumer market,
The observation is a to-the-point example of the continuing expansion of the information economy into the broader service economy and of
what new products will be valuable in that economy. Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa
For Europe, a wave of foresight activity was associated with the accession of new EU Member States from the so-called‘‘transition economies''.
Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as being‘‘to examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,
which scan macro trends in the economy, society and technology which may impact upon the business and its innovative activities.
Knowledge cluster programmes allow a focus on areas of an economy in which there is potential for innovation
a term used by governments to describe material assets that are essential for the functioning of a society and economy (such as electricity generation and distribution, telecommunication, transportation systems, public health, financial services,
and communication technologies (ICT) can make to the economy, society and personal quality of life, "and the ICT priority has the largest budget share of the current European RTD Framework programme (FP7:
economy, Society and Culture, vol. 1, Blackwell, Malden, 1996.16 European commission, Green Paper on the convergence of the telecommunications, media and information technology sectors,
Securing Competitive advantage in the Information Economy, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.19 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1995.20 R. Dawson, Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, Butterworth-Heinemann, London, 2000.21 A. Eerola, B. H
to promote a continuous and closer interface between the state, the economy and society. Yet, COM 10 claims that governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis in Europe and elsewhere.
society and corporate activity A central assumption behind innovation systems theory is that knowledge is the fundamental resource in the modern economy
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
A new global setting of the world economy is defining the framework for operation of the industrial sector both inside the national boundaries and internationally.
For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,
H2, nukes) 4. Ecology-Economy State of Global Finance Trade, Debt and Related Globalization Issues BRIC Rapid Development Economies Climate change, Global Warming=sustainable ecology, new economy 5. Geopolitics & Security East-West
, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
Balance was distributed well with economy-ecology leading but S&t, geopolitics, security and culture close behind;
fuel cells and nuclear) Shift in travel patterns due to energy prices and ICT alternatives Solar energy meets grid parity Ecology Economy 82 Increased frequency of economic crises
Ecology and Economy; and Geopolitics and Security (STEEP. Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years.
Strong emphasis again on ecology-environment and economy with Society and Culture and S&t close behind;
and climate change lead to descent scenarios Ecology Economy 50 Global financial imbalances create national commercial rivalries China's role in international affairs:
and response of the US toward China's growth Kyoto protocol full implementation Political resistance to economic globalization and deregulation Rising economies demand for energy, electricity drives modernisation
shift to alternatives Ecology Economy 32 Global trade conflicts intensify between developed and developing countries Civil war in China Unexpected freeze of northern hemisphere pushes population to immigrate south G8
because of oil price increase causes travel decline Nano-facilitated energy conversion alters energy economic mix Ecology Economy 7 Western world becomes a national/corporate welfare state BRICS rapidly overtake western economy
& Security 8 Europe becomes the most competitive economy in the world WW3 Nanotechnology and
Economy 27 Widening the rift between rich and poor More rights of China Induced migration due to inundation and climate change Price hikes in energy,
as economies and societies become more globalized. Innovation is both a source of and response to disruptive transformations
B Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure of the economy can change.
B Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050. B Prices of fossil fuels will rise
and 3. economy, employment, entrepreneurship and wellbeing. The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
possibility of degrowth economy (since wellbeing was considered to be at least on the present levels, this would mean that in the future wellbeing is defined in a different fashion from today) was presented in scenario B. In the final publication of the results of the scenario process this notion was replaced with stable growth.
Seen from the present situation in particular after the global financial crises, the anticipated possibility of degrowth economy is not an insignificant option
Notes 1. Summary of the strategy is available on the web site of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy:
Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components
Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:
the key relationships, The Technology/Economy Programme, Paris, 1992.13 A. H. Arnall, Future technologies, Today's Choices:
integrated economy into the global markets. The Spanish economy is balanced more and diversified than 20 years ago when it was dominated by the construction and tourism sectors.
Scenario B: predator development (circa 2025. This scenario occurs when resources of all types are abundant,
Despite the economic cycle's ups and downs, the Spanish economy keeps growing at an acceptable rate.
The stagnation experienced by the Spanish economy is similar to the one suffered by most European countries.
algorithm Economy Unemployment rate hab(%)14.2 Very low 5. 1 Low 7. 3 Very high 16.4 Simple mathematical algorithm Predominant economic sectors%Basic
stated in 2. 1 Economy Unemployment rate. The percentage of the total labour force that is unemployed
the development of service economies; and other developments such as rapid globalisation, and changing nature of demographical structures, cultural practices, environmental affairs and social services.''
and the structural changes in technology, economy and society possibly initiated by them will have considerable consequences.
as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
as the data are collected on categories that used to be important in the industrial economies and value production models of the twentieth century.
The ignorance economy. Prometheus 26, no. 4: December, 335 54. Roberts, J. 2012. Organizational ignorance:
such as the roadmaps on the hydrogen economy (Bakker, van Lente, and Meeus 2011). 3. 2. Force of expectations The case of Moore's Law is extreme,
Sturken et al. 2004) like the‘electronic superhighway'in the 1990s or the‘hydrogen economy'of the last decade.
Eames (2006) and his colleagues have studied how the guiding vision of the hydrogen economy has lead to resistance.
Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 361 74.
Evolving foresight in a small transition economy. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 179 201.
Foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas and J. Shepherd, 1 19. London: Blackwell.
economy, health care, the production economy, and information security), on the layer of four Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway,
and influential environmental factors (e g. economy recovery act support for renewable energy development). Key reviewarticles helped us to understand the important componeent and players in this‘delivery system'.
Strategic intelligence for an innovation economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-verlag. Chesbrough, H. W. 2006. Open innovation: A new paradigm for understanding industrial innovation.
It must tackle the overarching challenge of turning Europe into an eco-efficient economy''.''The Lund Declaration followed the work of an Expert Group Report on the European research area,
investment Smart travel Carbon taxes Transport market liberalisation versus environmental regulation Education and skills The knowledge economy ICT in education Social mobility and higher education Social
impact trends (identified by roundtable participants) Ten trends most likely to happen Ten highest impact trends Rise of BRICS Converging technologies Ageing populations Knowledge economy Global population
and social science and their contribution to Ireland's society and economy Be more‘‘creative''by moving towards a stronger creative economy that combines arts/humanities
However, the Russian economy still remains resource-oriented. Mining of natural resources generates more than 20 per cent of the total output,
which would contribute to increasing the growth rate of the economy, environmental safety and the competitiveness of Russian companies,
B improvement of the structure and increasing competitiveness of the Russian economy; and B contribution to Russia's national security, including environmental security.
and the proliferation of foresight activities among all sorts of economies can be observed. Also, the rule of foresight has changed from the previous explorative forecasting to more be come more oriented to strategic planning (Martin, 1995.
though increasingly less so as economies and societies become more globalised. In this context, FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems,
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
Moreover, Modis 11 has demonstrated the complete equivalence between the learning curves (exponential decaying) used in economy of scale (dlearning by doingt) and the logistic (S-shaped) curves.
and are major drivers of regional and national economies. Their long-term planning is therefore of crucial importance 36.
Concurrerende en duurzame luchtvaart voor een sterke economie Air Transport White paper Competitive and Sustainable Air Transport for a Strong Economy, 2009.39 FAA, Upgraded FAA
just as economies, and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
In contrast to many other developed economies where technology foresight is used to support strategic decision-making, national-level technology foresight studies are seen not as a prominent activity in the science
In subsequent phases of the INFU project, the findings were assessed by actors from various stakeholder groups with respect to impacts for society, economy and ecosystems 29.
Eco-innovation Putting the EU on the Path to a Resource and Energy efficient Economy, 2009.9 J. Tidd, J. Bessant, K. Pavitt, Managing Innovation:
and the knowledge economy, MIT Sloan Manag. Rev. 78 (September October 1999) 129 141.12 I. Miles, Innovation In services, Oxford university Press, New york, 2005.13 G. Mulgan, R. Ali, R. Halkett
A further keynote highlighted the rise to prominence of the Brazilian economy, and by implication wider changes in the world economic order.
Her research interests are foresight and STI policy with a particular emphasis on small and transition economies.
which were, in effect, the world's four largest economies at that time 7. In opposition to this focus,
Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture including (a) the Danish position between liberal and coordinated market economies,
economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
(Limburg, One Generation Further. 4 Scenarios on Demographics, Economy and the Environment), Maastricht, 2006.18 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg.
and a continuing reassessment of relationships with the private sector and the innovation-related Knowledge Economy agenda (e g. through third stream activities.
and of the new roles for innovation in the global knowledge economy. Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
and supported by Agriculture Canada and the Smart Economy Project. Damrongchai et al. describe an appropriate mix of foresight methods that was applied in a research projeec of the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation aiming to better understand the complexity of emerging infectious diseases (EID.
if they focus on security, environment or the economy. Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
economy and finance (including its governance; environment (ecological; and politics and public services. Although some issues could be placed in two or even three categories,
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
and education S&t development Economical context/finance Economics Economy Physical environment Environment Nature Resources Political, administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
scans Society 18.5 22.4 7. 5 15.6 S&t 16.4 8. 8 15.1 13.7 Economy/finance 21.2 21 6 18.9 20.5 Environment
to our potential to change our way of living (behaviour) and to the geopolitical developpment (energy demand of developing giant economies and tensions about distribution of scarce resources).
HE INFORMATION AND communication technologies (ICT) sector accounted for about 5%of the size of the European economy and 3%of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al.
2009) about 5%of the size of the European economy and 3%of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al.
) In the period 2000 2003 this sector contributte to more than 25%of Europe's productivity growth, making it the leading sector in the EU econoom both in terms of labour productivity (almost twice the whole economy average
thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy. At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth
The growing adoption of ICT is having a momentous impact on all areas of the economy,
like the growing importance of Asian economies and their attitude to creative content; European lifestyles,
future fuels for APEC economies; animal health; bio-health innovattio and stewardship, and future professional readiness for physicians and veterinarians.
and supported by APEC, through active co-operation of Thailand and other APEC member economies,
bio-economy and enabling technologies convergence were completed that could have influenced the policy agenda had there been a policy receptor most of these having been displaced by a highly centralized politically managed priorities exercise
and bioterrorism that impacts the economy, environment, and public health. More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of informatiio generation and collection, information managemment information analysis,
Approximattel 60 experts from over ten APEC economies who covered many disciplines and sectors, discussed the preliminary result of the project
and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei
on 24 26 october 2007 (41 experts from eight economies. Experts discussed the future changes in medical requirements in each research domain, the types of supporting technologies needed,
Mysterious death Mysterious deaths were occurring in almost every economy around the world. 5000 people were reported to have been infected by the virus. The death rate was low
It is hoped that eventually the outcome of this project will assist developing APEC member economies
and diagnosis center for infectious diseases among APEC economies. This proposed center could be used as a hub of the network,
Therefoore this initiative could provide a great benefit among APEC member economies as it would estabblis strong partnerships within APEC
so that decision-makers in each member economy of the APEC could invest in their R&d programs
However, the applicatiio of these new technologies in developing economies needs to be undertaken with great care, recognizing that there are major infrastructural, cultuura and social differences.
and there is a need for further action by individual economies and by APEC itself as a coordinating body to ensure that the region is prepared adequately for the outbreaks of EID that will inevitably occur in the future.
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