These invade both the qualitative and quantitative pieces of information that are joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV themes (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Values and Norms.
Economic and social trends measure what used to be important and often miss things that will be important.
Although there may be cognitive and economic limitations, in this view, the levels of certainty and rationality could be increased by better evidence and knowledge,
'Many innovation theorists since Schumpeter have focused on the economic aspect of innovattion More broadly, innovation is,
if we also assume that these societies are transforming towards knowledge societies where innovation is an important economic factor.
Technological creativity and economic progress. Oxford: Oxford university Press. Nicolis, G, . and I. Prigogine. 1977. Self-organization in nonequilibrium systems:
The analysis of economic change. Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935. In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
New brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers. Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan. Newyork: Random House. Thom, R. 1972.
These invade both the qualitative and quantitative information co-joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics andvalues and Norms) themes.
and more broadly artefacts, can blend together across the entire STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology,
challenges and opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular situation More than future-oriented research Normative combining socio-techno-economic feasibility and scientific possibility to yield desirable outcomes
An evolutionary theory of economic change. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Porter, A. 2004. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods.
these are the political, economic, ecological, societal, and technological (PEEST) landscapes that surrooun the business micro environment
while relatively accuraat in the short term, forecasting accuracy diminishes in the medium and long terms as political, economic, social,
Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social, and cultural landscapes which are likely to shape the future of the transport
The foresight process then investigated the technical and economic feasibility of the concept, which the top management decided to endorse by establishing a new brand and a subsidiary start-up.
Value is translated still by an‘economic'bottom line and, in this context, is decoded in financial returns to shareholders based on operation efficiency and/or customers'and/or suppliers'/deliverers'engagement, with the ultimate goal of satisfying customers'needs.
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
Cagnin 2005), namely social (S), spatial-technological (ST), economic (E), ecological (Ec), political (P) and values-norms (V)( acronym SSTEEPV.
with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
and of the necessary means to ensure an alignment of economic, environmental and social performance along the network. 4. Management framework The proposed management framework emphasises the creative aspect of living systems where FTA is key to enable the kind of dialogue
spatial-technological, social, economic, environmmenta or ecological, political-institutional and cultural-values. Living systems share matter, information and energy with their external environments:
and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
In the end, it is about improving economic, social and environmental integrated performance, knowing that one depends and leverage on the other.
and the wider social settings (e g. geographical, organisational, political, economic, and ethical). In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
NEST analyses often concern economic opportunities, with significant concern to identify and mitigate potential‘unintennded indirect,
In the long term, we believe that general Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 849 Figure 2. TDS for DSSCS in the USA. economic forces will favour innovation
but the short-term global economic malaise has hit the solar cell market hard. Our assessment of the competitor solar cells finds that DSSCS currently hold a minuscule share of the market,
and each country also has its own specific issues, for example rapid aging of the population or economic stagnation.
Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity''in 2011 (National Economic Council, 2011. The European commission released‘‘Innovation Union''as a flagship initiative in Europe 2020 (European commission, 2010.
and converging technologies focus on human performance or the social or economic dimension (National science Foundation, 2002,2005; European commission, 2004.
Driving Towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs, Executive Office of the President, National Economic Council, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
National Economic Council (2011), Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2009),‘Emerging fields in science and technology for the 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan'',Research Material No. 168, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.
the identification of potential constraints that might stem from economical, technological or societal implications, an assessment of the relevance for basic education and advanced training as well as the consideration of ethical and legal aspects.
Drawing on the joint assessments of potential economic social and technological developments, elements for a coherent vision were created in the workshop by the experts.
and Technology policy-makers and politicians are keen to find an answer to the challenging question of where they should be investing their resources to produce economic, environmental and social dividends.
Economic competitiveness has been and remains a key objective of investment in research and innovation programmes.
an instrumental expectation that investments will address particular problem areas and boost economic competitiveness. It could be argued that the main narrative of EU Research,
Technological development and Innovation (RTDI) programmes hitherto has focused on economic competitiveness in an increasingly globalised business environment.
Although the focus on economic competitiveness is still important, it appears that there is now a new type of narrative of grand (societal) challenges.
Global drivers and trends analysis. The first main phase of the exercise consisted of an initial analysis of global drivers and trends across the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legislative, and Environmental.
For example, with the recent economic difficulties in Ireland clearly vexing participants in the exercise the challenge of developing a more resilient societal system was identified, with potential implications around social research on resilience,
and wind) to deliver environmental and economic dividends? Increase the available options for renewable energy generation capacity Install advanced distribution networks with international connectivity Develop
One grand challenge that emerged from the confluence of economic and geopolitical drivers and trends was the potential marginalisation of Ireland within multilateral frameworks:
Many international organisations, including the European commission (2004a, b, 2003), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006), the United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007),
B designing effective economic mechanisms for stimulating enterprises to decrease waste formation; and B increasing the efficiency of intersectoral interaction.
Also, major innovation projects were identified with the promise of high economic and social return. On the basis of this project recommendations for Russian S&t policy which include the most important research
PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:
which can be used to generate clean energy the economic mass production of hydrogen, ''and‘‘Maximization of nuclear reactor safety/economic in operation, optimization of the new nuclear reactor design and efficiency of monitoring/lowering the risk by optimization and actively use of information technology''.
''The mapping distribution of the Delphi topics of China shows that about half of the important topics are interacted self (Figure 8;
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 71 Griliches, Z. 1990),‘Patent statistics as economic indicators:
a survey'',Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28 No. 4, pp. 1661-707. Grupp, H. and Linstone, H. A. 1999),‘National technology foresight activities around the globe:
A, Ed. Corporate Financial center, Sl. 1112,70712-900, Brasília-DF, Brazil c Institute of Economics, Research centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H
such as social or economic structural transformations). Drivers of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from profound technological changes, emergence of new business models and major economic restructuring, environmental disruptions, to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
Current and future economic, environmental and societal challenges, as well as their combination emerge from such transformations
and call for appropriate FTA ACTIVITIES to support and enable large entities such as nations and group of nations, businesses and other organisations,
They typically involve complex and systemic relationships within and between social, technological, economic, environmental, and value systems.
e g. climate changes, energy, water, use of other natural resources, migration induced by war and other conflicts, economic hardship,
Research centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (http://econ. core. hu/english/inst/havas. html),
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 32 D. Rossetti di Valdalbero, The Power of Science economic research and European decision-making:
School of management and Economic, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing 100081, PR China a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Technology life cycle Patent Indicator Cathode ray tube Thin film transistor liquid crystal display Nano-biosensor 1. Introduction The rapidly changing economic environment
what has delayed the entrenching of evolutionary economics as a powerful alternative to other current economic models.
More recently, Devezas and Corredine 12 proposed a generalized diffusion-learning model to explain the succession of long waves in the techno-economic world,
or the unfolding of economic phenomena (in small or worldwide scale) is not a matter of simple metaphorical comparisons.
and complexity, are the currency of contemporary economic and scientific debates. Everyone knows intuitively what they are,
and dcreative destructiont of older ones during economic depressions (for a review on this topic see Devezas-Corredine, Ref. 12).
, An Evolutionary theory of Economic Change, Beknap of Harvard university Press, Boston, 1982.17 G. Baslalla, The Evolution of Technology, Cambridge university Press, 1988.18 H. Sachsse, Anthropologie der Technik
a possible corrective action could be to partly decouple the adoption of new technologies from the economic cyclewith the help of subsidies and additional commissioning of newtechnologies.
The economic action is successful in promoting sustainable technologies and increasing the total fraction after the first 10 years (around 2020).
The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
Applied interests include economic-financial crises, climate change and energy system transitions, and inter/national safety and security. 418 C. Hamarat et al./
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
Received 4 july 2011 Received in revised form 24 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 11 november 2012 In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis,
Today's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment and poverty go beyond economic and social policies 9. Grand challenges are interrelated usually
The concept of national innovation systems is rooted in evolutionary economic theorizing on socio-technical change 33 35.
For instance, Hekkert et al. 40 highlight that stimulating knowledge flows (alone) is not sufficient to induce technological change and economic performance.
A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
but focus predominantly on economic issues and impacts. The BMBF commissioned several forecasting studies on nanotechnology-related fields starting in the early 1990s.
Driven innovation economic model Novel Classic Innovator'sworking conditions Temporary Stable Idea generation mode Controlled Random The size of the bubble represents how many of the selected signals conform to a specification.
The INFU visions gave rise to fundamental discussions among stakeholders regarding possible cultural transitions, new economic principles,
a hybrid strategic scenario method, Futures 39 (4)( 2007) 341 362.3 European commission, Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions
In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
and by implication wider changes in the world economic order. Taking the conference as a whole, regularly used keywords emphasised discontinuities with a discourse around grand challenges,
Largely conceived in the light of market failure arguments that sat comfortably with the neoliberal economic paradigm,
whether the luxury of this accumulation can survive the cold economic winds that are causing many European Governments to cut spending
and technology are making the greatest possible contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality, and national security.
philanthropy or economic necessity, in: Plenary Address to European commission Innovation Convention, 2011.8 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper and F. Scapolo op cit. 9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper
936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
First, due to the dense economic and social relationships between public and private organisations, participatory and consensus seeking approaches have more appeal to policy makers than deep, scientific expert analysis of available knowledge.
This landscape includes local economic, political and sociocultural contexts that might differ from region to region.
economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
For instance, possible future economic issues can be related to social and technological issues, while (local and national) governments are organised often along these thematic pillars.
and related interconnected systems (e g. social, technological, economic, environmental, political, value, cultural, among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.
dissemination activities Industry Different economic sectors representing IMS region, including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
1 The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Innovation-Oriented Research program‘Integral Product Creation and Realization (IOP IPCR)' of The netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation.
HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns, to security threats highlight a rising need to incorporate more forward-looking approaches into the decisionmakkin processes of public and private organisations and stakeholders all around the world.
and application of the ways that science and technology contribute to economic and social development, of the possibilities for managing research and technology more effectively,
Decker and Ladikas, 2004) Valuing/decision-aiding/economic analyses Cost-benefit analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
such as the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) in the UK (DEFRA, 2006), the Ministry of Economic Affairs of The netherlands (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 1998), The french Department of Transport
and education S&t development Economical context/finance Economics Economy Physical environment Environment Nature Resources Political, administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
not only in the economic and environmental sense, but also in different other societal value dimensions (health, longevity, human rights, social cohesion, law-based democratic society, international relations etc.).
economic financial dimension: economic quality (basis for other dimensions but also welfare creatiion luxury, leisure, distribution of wealth) social quality (social cohesion in the present and in the future, eliminating poverty, mental health of (futuure citizens;
governmental dimension: juridical and democratic quality (rule and policy basis to realise other dimenssions constitutional state,
and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
In our case, these were mainly sub-dimensions of two sustainability dimensions, namely of the‘sociial and the‘economic'ones.
However, the uncertainntie over the direction of change and the radically different consequences this could have on social and economic sustainability of the sector in Europe made it impossible after the analysis stage to draw any initiia conclusions upon
resulting in a set of 36 uncertain issues and open questions in six thematic blocks (see Table 1). Experts were asked to assess the importance of each thesis in different dimensions (economic, scientific, society,
and technoloogica characteristics (e g. magnitude of sunk costs) that determine economic relations in the creatiiv content sector, on the one hand,
The economic framework (competitive markets and entrepreneurialism vs. oligopolistic and‘walled off'markets) and social values (positive public attituud of potential users towards and high demand for new creative content products and services vs. negatiiv public attitude and lack of demand
Finally, the creative content sector foresight becaam a particular challenge because of the high degrre of uncertainty in all (technological, economic, social and structural) dimensions,
economic or scientific impacts that you believe can be attributte to a national foresight program? Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey.
What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures? What is the foresight funding model?
Table 5. Foresight objectives Main objective Sub-objectives Increase societal and economic well-being Economic growth and national competitiveness Societal well being, covering social, environmental, cultural
and economic factors Identification of solutions to problematic areas. need-driven) Understanding the interaction between technology and the society.
The economic consequences are severe with businesses unable to operate. Tourism has plummeete and retailers are facing bankruptcy.
technical, social, economic and political Ownership and sharing of biological material Long-term budget system for EID technology development and deployment, APEC‘Centers of Excellence'APEC collaboration projects
This project was funded by the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperaatio (APEC) and the National science and Technology Developmmen Agency Ministry of Science and Technology, Royal Thai government.
APEC Leaders'Declaration, APEC, 2006. 14th APEC Economic Leaders'Meeting, Ha Noi Declaration, Ha Noi, Viet nam, 18 19 november 2006.
As such, it T Spyros Arvanitis is at KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;
Nora Sydow is at the Economic Research Department, Credit suisse, 8070 Zurich, Switzerland; Email: nora. sydow@creditsuiissecom;
The underlyyin justification for public policies to support innovaatio is provided by the economic argument that otherwise the private sector would invest less in innovaativ activities than is socially desirable.
) This tradition is based on a wide Spyros Arvanitis is a senior researcher at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and a lecturer in economics at the ETH Zurich.
Before this appoinntmen he was a senior researcher at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich.
He teaches and researrche on statistics and econometrics, especially on measures of economic inequality, the construction and maintenance of panels of firms,
Nora Sydow has been at the Economic Research Departmeen of Credit suisse since 2008. Before this appointment she was a researcher at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich and responsible for the KOF Enterprise Panel.
She holds a master's degree from the University of St gallen, Switzerland. Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.
According to the results of The swiss Economic Survve (Arvanitis et al. 2007), less than 10%of Swiss firms perceive a lack of public R&d promotion to be a strong,
8 an ordinal measure of the economic importance of the introduced product and process innovations;
With one exception(‘importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view';‘'‘nearest neighbour'method) we found that the subsidized firms showed a significantly higher 0 1(,)N N A b W i j C D)}
introduced innovations from a technical point of view*Yes Yes Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view*No Yes Yes Yes Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
from a technical point of view*Yes Yes Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view*No No No No Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
For one innovation variable(‘importtanc of introduced innovations from an economic point of view')we could not find any significant effect,
This does not mean that higher subsidies cannot generate (additioonal economic success: according to our results the larger the subsidy (in relative terms), the larger the impact effect for a series of indicators that measure the economic success of innovation (sales shares of products with different grades of innovativeeness reduction
in costs. More detailed results in terms for figures for each innovation measure and each method can be found in Tables A7 A10 in the Appendix.
This could be shown by four different matching methods (with the exception of the nearest neighbour method for the indicator‘importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view'.
point of view*3. 34 (0. 03) 3. 44 (0. 05) 3. 75 (0. 06) 0. 31 (0. 08) Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
point of view*3. 34 (0. 03) 3. 36 (0. 02) 3. 75 (0. 06) 0. 39 (0. 06) Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
point of view*3. 34 (0. 03) 3. 39 (0. 02) 3. 75 (0. 06) 0. 36 (0. 06) Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
from an economic point of view*3. 36 (0. 03) 3. 46 (0. 01) 3. 65 (0. 06) 0. 19 (0. 06) Yes Percentage reduction
test level 10%)Difference of the difference of the means (column 3-column 2) Importance of introduced innovations from a technical point of view*0. 42 Yes 0. 18 Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
test level 10%)Difference of difference of means (column 3-column 2) Importance of introduced innovations from a technical point of view*0. 46 Yes 0. 33 Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
test level 10%)Difference of the difference of means (column 3-column 2) Importance of introduced innovations from a technical point of view*0. 39 Yes 0. 30 Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
test level 10%)Difference of difference of means (column 3-column 2) Importance of introduced innovations from a technical point of view*0. 40 Yes 0. 31 Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic
the case of Eastern Germaany Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21 (2), 226 236.
an economic analysis based on Swiss micro data. Small Business Economics, 19 (4), 321 340. Arvanitis, S, H Hollenstein, N Sydow and M Wörter 2007.
Economic welfare and the allocation of resources to invention. In The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity, R Nelson (ed.).Princeton, NJ:
such as social or economic structural transformations). Drivers of dynamic processes of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
These included the continuing adaptation of FTA to the changing economic and policy environment. This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
FINEP's mission entails promoting economic and social development in Brazil through public funding for the development of ST&I.
techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in agricultural and health sectors Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies;
and the firm-centered phase (OECD 2008)( see Fig. 1). The 1978 National science Conference coincided with the launch of the economic reform
The decision on‘acceleration of progress in S&t'marked a further step towards orienting S&t towards China's social and economic needs
Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
as well as economic and societal development. The latest MLP was presented in February 2006 and lasts until 2020.
supporting economic and social development (zhicheng fazhan), leading the future (yinling weilai). Priorities expreesse in the MLP include‘strategic priorities'(zhanlue Research priority setting in China. 261 zhongdian),
The 16 Mega-engineering Projects identified in the last MLP are selected clearly missionorieented to address major economic and societal needs,
its major goal is to address pressing S&t issues for national economic and social development. 5 Finally,
In recent years, we have seen an increasing orientation by the NSFC towards funding economic and socially relevant research
The objectives are to produce groundbreaking research that addresses importaan scientific issues concerning national economic and social development.
The five-year plans are the most obvious and structured tool of China's economic planning process in the sense that that it is clear to everyone
‘Feet on the ground'(lidi) means that Chinese S&t should be targeted at China's strategic economic, social and national defense needs.
The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
Development strategy and Economic Reform,(revised edn. Hong kong and Beijing: Chinese University Press. Liu, L. 2009) Research priorities and priority-setting in China.
Implications for American Competitiveness'prepared for US China Economic and Security review Commission, <http://www. uscc. gov/researchpapers/2011/USCC REPORT China's program for Science and technology modernization. pdf>accessed 25 may 2011.
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