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It discusses the questions and validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution
The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).
biologists) were attracted to the field, foreseeing that this technology could aid them in their work
Also, in the field of biomedical research, off the back of the Human Genome Project15, a major emphasis in cell biology over the last decade has been focused on in areas related to genomics, proteomics, medical diagnostics,
and detection of trace amounts of biological agents. High-throughput screening and microarray technologies are now in common use for measuring gene
and protein expression and for assessing biological activity of potential drug targets. For the field of lab-on-a-chip there is a general agreement of four consecutive phases of technological development (see Fig. 1). Currently most developments still remain in phase 2. 15 http://www. ornl. gov/sci
are now being circulated by many of both the TAS and biology communities. Aside from these relatively simple experimental integrations there is the same gap in the innovation chain
Another issue is that cell biology is diverse and so for cell-on-a-chip many niche markets will be the key.
of water Biological diversity 4. Survey, questionnaire results 4. 1. Material 4. 2. Competence and knowledge generation 4. 2. 1. Prospects regarding techno-scientific competence 4. 2. 2
But also the biological rhythms of the human beings (chronobiology) and new knowledge for different applications will be future topics.
, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, 2007.18 J. Rosenhead, Robustness analysis: keeping your options open, in:
and exploration of bio-fouling. Technical complexity becomes an issue. A number of legal actions were filed against medical device companies
environmental sciences, biomedical sciences, information and communication technologies, physical sciences and engineering, social sciences and humanities. 6. The single Social sciences and Humanities group of the first phase was replaced by two groups:
1) Learning and learning society (2) Services and service innovations (3) Well-being and health (4) Environment and energy (5) Infrastructures and security (6) Bio-expertise
and bio-society (7) Information and communications (8) Understanding and human interaction (9) Materials (10) Global economy Apart from its title, each panel was characterised by a description of about 150
for example, advances in relation to forest-related industries were discussed in panels on Environment and energy, Bio-expertise and bio-society, Materials,
technologies 5. Infrastructure and security Environmental know-how and technology Logistic know-how and security of supply management Integration know-how 6. Bio-expertise and bio-society Complete use of renewable
Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
from 1996 to 2006) is compared with the changes occurring inall science''(50%over the same period),agricultural and biological sciences''(30),
Synthetic biology the prospect of engineering cellular processes to operate as bioreactors, labs in a cell,
Ocean biologists studying the Sargasso Sea have discovered only recently 1. 2 million new genes (including 800 new genes for photoreceptors) representing 1800 new species. The Implications sections of these abstracts are far
Foresight Canadae Informative Identification of emerging and frontier technology domains addressing subjects such as future fuels, bio-health innovation, geo-strategic systems, animal
, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
bio-neural evolution, rising new economic leaders and directions, reduced personal privacy; These are described both in terms of challenges and potential opportunities for civilization.
growth of science in the East Neural network functional drugs Virtualisation, Internetisation of life, intelligent Web content Growth of bio-sciencesbiologisation''New human speciesTranshumanist
solar wind, thermal, bio, ocean Progress in nuclear and solar energy is not constraining development Decentralised power generation Changing energy source and supply reconfiguring world power division Diversification and fragmentation
cultural, physical and biological improvements New investments in the Internet capacity improvement Progress in genetic therapy, stem cells and molecular medicine pharmacology Sunburst of change in vehicle technology
Energy 17 Rising cost and crises in oil production Bio-fuel generation Spread of nuclear energy production toward developing countries Lack of energy sources Innovation for new energy sources
& Security 35 Cooperative and concerted policies among nations Nuclear proliferation-incidence from terrorism in Middle east Renewed awareness of the limits to growth Uni-bio-multi-polar world
and hydrogen Regression in the development because of mismanagement of energy sources Hydrogen from LG means pervasive bio-hydrogen production possible Peak oil and climate shifts decisively confirmed meaning to rapid
nature, safety, home Personalised genomic healthcare Rapid reversal of tolerance to multicultural populations Human systems adapt to new culture of physical and biological requirements Reduced need
Ontological expansion in the mobile space This process of ontological expansion can be illustrated by comparing the evolution of the biological eye and the mobile telephone.
In this regard, there is no difference between, for example, business organisations and biological organisms. Profitability may be a boundary condition for survival for business firms in modern capitalism,
In some cases, the model can be hardwired'in the biological system. For humans, anticipation is hardwired less,
The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.
The philosophical basis of biology. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, Doran & Company. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 750 I. Tuomi Hiltunen, E. 2008.
The biological roots of human understanding. Boston, MA: New Science Library. Mead, G. H. 1907.
For example, FTA is likely to become involved in synthetic biology; nanoscience, nanotechnology and nano-artefacts and their social acceptance;
As the complexity of systems involving synthetic biology, genetics and artificial life, nanoarteefact and other developing themes merge,
When humans transcend biology. London: Duckworth. Lipinski, A j, . and D. Loveridge. 1982. How we forecast:
An introduction toMaturana's'biology. In Seized by agreement, swamped by understanding, ed. L. Fell, D. Russell,
These areas include computational biology (both structural and genomics nonlinear algorithms, and climate modeling, labeled A b,
of which computational biology is one type. One can carry the analysis even further by looking at the distribution of projects in the bpotentialq spaces by laboratory.
we find that the barrier to entry is reasonably low for the computational biology and climate modeling areas,
For example, laboratory B has an area of common technical focus with laboratory A through lithography, laboratory C through fuel cells and biological systems,
and laboratory D through biological systems and semiconductors. The identification of these common points directs us to btechnology categoriesq that can be analyzed further to identify the portfolio of technology that characterizes the capabilities of each laboratory.
resources, and environment 01-D Energy-relateda 03-H Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment 05-A Geo-diagnosis technologyb 05-B
and environmenta Health and medical care 03-B Applied bio-nanotechnology 03-E Medical treatment (exogenous factor, metabolic disease,
VA. National science Foundation (2005),Managing nano-bio-info-cogno innovations: converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),How are selected foresight methods?''
for management 8 Semiconductors 9 Optics 10 Measurement 11 Analysis of biological materials 12 Control 13 Medical technology 14 Organic fine chemistry
bio-energy/battery technology China Biofuel; biomass gasification power generation 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large capacity combined cycle power generation
The related topics containDevelopment of bio-information technology that can use Terahertz in biomedical operation,
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
including test (or similar keywords, such as measure*,monitor*)and nucleic acid*(or some other bio-related keywords, such as lactate or cholesterol), and sensor*.
accepted 6 october 2004 Abstract It is well known the fact that the world of technology is full of biological metaphors,
One of the most powerful technological forecasting tools, the logistic equation, has its origin in the biological realm
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics, with the convergence of different fields of science toward
This debate has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution and technological/cultural evolution.
Among the needs for TFA envisioned by the TFA Methods Working group we find the questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (Ref. 1, pp. 299:
bcan artificial technological worlds be created by simulation modeling analogous to biological ones? Q This question is hardly a new one,
The sense one gets from the published literature on this theme is that the to date effort has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution
It seems that a synthesis of biology and technology remains beyond reach, with some people even doubting
It is said usually that some biological evolution-related concepts like mutation, selection, adaptation, life cycle, survival of the fittest, etc.
we evoke metaphors in both ways, from the biological to the social and also in the other way around, from the social to the biological.
Biology, or perhaps more generally, biosciences, is not merely a good source of metaphors, but historically it was,
and/or disanalogies found between biological and techno-cultural evolution, or in other words, between the evolution of organisms and artifacts.
T which interprets the whole history of human social, intellectual and material development as the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
more than an useful metaphor One of the most powerful technological forecasting tools, the logistic equation, has its origin in the biological realm
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics
as in biology, originally took purely verbal forms, and it was only with considerable delay that more mathematical (algorithmically based) arguments
The mathematical tools that began to be employed in economics (as well as in technological forecasting) starting in the 1970s had been developed by mathematical biologists in the 1920s
Formalization of evolutionary thinking in biology in algorithmic terms began in 1930 when R. A. Fisher 6 published his opus bthe Genetical Theory of Natural selection,
the bio-mathematicians Vito Volterra and Alfred Lotka popularized a set of differential equations to describe the growth of population levels,
T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1141 Yet in 1925 the American biologist and demographer Raymond Pearl 8 in his seminal book
bthe Biology of Population Growthq calls the attention to the fact that the growth of populations is essentially a phenomenon of biological nature;
whose basic mechanism of recurrence is controlled by two kinds of biological determinants (constraints generational and cognitive) that impose the rhythm of collective human behavior.
All this is to say that the use of biological approaches in analyzing the evolution of technology
which will inevitably lead to the recognition that cultural evolution is the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
Here we are dealing also with one of the most controversial points in all previous attempts of comparisons between biological and technological evolution,
that can be subsumed under the following questions are innovations (or novelties) in the biological, cultural,
and then answering in the positive the question above about the same nature of novelties in the biological, cultural and technological realm:!
"In biological systems an innovation can be achieved without necessarily changing the genetic underpinnings of a feature,
In my view what is missing is a bridge linking evolutionary concepts in biology to technological progress,
but a bridge leading to a level higher up than the plain mapping of every element of technological evolution onto a precise correspondence in the biological counterpart.
or mind to come in existence in the course of biological evolution: very primitive life forms have developed skilled techniques of gathering food,
and reproduce. 2 In the course of biological evolution the technique came to life as a form of searching for a bypass
Economics, in some ways the most ambitious of the social sciences, progressively abandoned biology and adopted physics as its model natural science.
the social cannot be reduced to the biological, a point of view also stressed by Hodgson 20: Darwinism may be universal,
but economics should not be abandoned to biology. There are the missing pieces I have mentioned in this paper (see further discussion in the next section)
technological evolution as the continuation of biological evolution by other means (or more than blind variation plus selective retention) Karl Popper's 22 view of scientific progress as a cumulative selection process resembling Darwin
unlike biological evolution, characterized by direct trial and error adaptation processes, knowledge processes evolve through vicarious forces,
the insistence of trying to map every element of technological evolution onto a precise correspondence in the biological counterpart;
cultural evolution (and technological evolution as well) is the continuation of biological evolution by other means;
, Dynamical systems and the Theory of evolution, Cambridge university Press, 1990.8 R. Pearl, The Biology of Population Growth, Alfred A. Knopf, New york, 1925.9 J. Fisher, R. Pry, A simple substitution
Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New york, 1992.12 T. Devezas, J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic
from NGOS, from the physical and biological sciences, engineering, medicine, social sciences, economics, and philosophy. The report included insights from US experts in the field, examinations of lessons learned,
technologies Production and technology Bio resources, food and bio products Intelligent solutions for society Production systems of the future Strategic growth technologies Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment Chronic disease between prevention and rehabilitation
Human health and safety in the interaction with environment factors Healthy lifestyle what creates change?
research centre in Greenland 20 15 Competitive environmental technologies 10 0 Production and technology Bio-resources food and other bio products 45 50 Intelligent solutions for society 0 10 Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment 30 20 Human health and safety
in interaction with env. factors 0 19 Innovation and competitiveness 0 10 The public sector of the future 0 15 Knowledge and education What works?
One of the policy-makers said that(f) uture studies should match the biological rhythm of strategic policy processes in local and regional policy contexts''.
Led several ITAS projects on information and communication technologies, convergence of nano, bio, info and cogno technologies and on a European Infrastructure for Technology assessment.
system NBIC Educational system Nanotech and science Agri-food supply ICT mathematics Infrastructures Mathematics Armed forces ICT Geology Engineering Economics Chemistry Biology
biological dimension: quality of life, ecological quality (survival, health, longevity of (future) citizeens health of ecosystems; social dimension;
biosysteemics nano bio info convergence; bio-products; future fuels for APEC economies; animal health; bio-health innovattio and stewardship,
and future professional readiness for physicians and veterinarians. He maintains active connecttion with foresight organizations in Europe, Asia, the US and Brazil.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
bio-economy and enabling technologies convergence were completed that could have influenced the policy agenda had there been a policy receptor most of these having been displaced by a highly centralized politically managed priorities exercise
nano bio info interface issues) but are not presently at the top of the priority list,
and measures taken to protect from biological harm. It encompasses the prevention and mitigation from diseases in humans and animals,
Vaccine development and delivery can be speeded up using genetics, nanotechnology, moleccula biology and bioinformatics. Moreover, health systems research using social sciences,
Nano Bio Info Nanobiosystem (e g.,, nanostructured drugs) Nano-Informatics (e g.,, NEMS, Nanoelectronics) Bioinformatics (e g.,, Genomic Analysis, Biomedical Imaging) Bio-Info-Nano Converging Tech.
e g.,, NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source:
technical, social, economic and political Ownership and sharing of biological material Long-term budget system for EID technology development and deployment, APECCenters of Excellence'APEC collaboration projects
A biosafety level (BSL) is the level of containment precautions required to isolate dangerous biological agents in an enclosed facility,
801,686 3. 1 140,803 Biology 23 3. 6 5, 462,365 4. 5 237,494 Electrical machinery/electronics 32 5. 0 6
Biology 7 3. 5 Electrical machinery/electronics 12 6. 0 Information technology 21 10.6 Machinery, construction of apparatus 23 11.6 Material sciences
Biology 13 7 53.8 Electrical machinery/electronics 18 12 66.7 Information technology 38 20 52.6 Machinery 70 46 65.7 Material sciences
) In terms of R&d policies, fundamental biological and pharmaceutical research in universities was funded continuously, and the DCB was found in 1984 to transfer pharmaceutical technology of chemical engineering from the universities to pharmaceuticca companies (DCB 2010).
2. The medical device sector also adopts biotechnology through the development of bio-chips whose knowleedg base is across electronic engineering and biotechnollog (Dr. Chip 2010).
<http://www. bio-drchip. com. tw/HOME2ENG/06products. asp>accessed 14 december 2010. Edquist, C. and Hommen, L.,eds,(2008) Small Country Innovation systems:
Background of National science and Technology Program for Bio agriculture. National science and Technology Program for Bio agriculture<http://dpiab. sinica. edu. tw/intro. php>accessed 14 december 2010.
OECD. 1999) Managing National Innovation systems. OECD: Paris. Senker, J. 2004) An overview of biotechnology in Europe:
and make them accesssibl for further biological study. During the early years of the HGP
Many of the sophisticated community annotation systems that are used currently in biology are based on the wiki concept (Mons et al. 2008;
Brohee, S.,Barriot, R. and Moreau, Y. 2010) Biological knowleedg bases using Wikis: combining the flexibility of Wikis with the structure of databases',Bioinformatics, 26: 2210 1. Chilton,
2008) Calling on a million minds for community annotattio in Wikiproteins',Genome Biology, 9: 5. Morrison, J. L. 1992) Environmental scanning'.
Stein, L. D. 2008) Towards a cyberinfrastructure for the biological sciences: progress, visions and challenges',Nature Reviews Genetics, 9: 678 88.
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