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This holds for private firms as well as for government bodies. On the other hand, these debates are essential for consolidating forward-looking insights and making them effective in policy-making.
In government-led exercises these focal issues are usually related to societal goals at fairly aggregate levels (How can we achieve an overarching transition towards a more sustainable energy supply system?.
and advising government on matters of research, technology and innovation policy. Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability
Policy 29 (4 5)( 2000) 657 678.6 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies, Technol.
and technology foresight exercises as instruments for governments, but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
Based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises, we define regulatory foresight as strategic activity undertaken by governments
-Baden, 2001.7 G. Tassey, Methods for Assessing the Economic impacts of Government R&d, National Institute of Standards & Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, 2003.8 K. Blind, B. Bührlen, C
where government support has been granted to refine existing technologies and develop an integrated platformfor DNA analysis, with a particular focus on point-of-use.
Manag. 18 (2001) 39 50.10 R. N. Kostoff, E. Geisler, Strategic management and Implementation of Textual Data mining in Government Organizations, Technol.
The alignment of actors goes beyond the usual actors in previous times (i e. government, industry and scientists.
and in industry and influenced the shape and course of government policy. Moreover, the strength of a foresight culture and capability was increased further
Even though neither the second nor the first round were organised by government but by a consortium of agencies,
On the other hand, other stakeholders suggested that the greater involvement of ministries would also have undermined legitimacy by turning the exercise into an outlet for government policy and opinion.
d) the degree to which government and regulatory contexts promote networking. These findings are mainly based on studies in industry and the private sector in general.
As regards governance, the degree to which government and regulatory contexts promote networking is another success factor.
and led the EGIST (Evaluation of Government and Industry Strategies for Technology) group; and Technopolis Ltd, an innovation policy consultancy which he founded in 1989 and which,
and especially that of the government sector, is higher in the less developed countries (Figs. 1 2). Third, output indicators, such as publications, citations,
and patents) because the principal outputs of its scientific and technological activities are consumed by government itself in terms of advice,
That might lead to a much larger share of research classified by governments as military R&d. 23 A few decades ago no one would have thought of e g.
yet, a number of other organisations e g. think tanks, private research organisations, private nonprofit research organisations, government laboratories, consultancy firms, patient organisations, various NGOS, trade associations and interest groups
The national 579 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 governments, international organisations and associations of universities can provide methodological and financial support for these initiatives.
from National systems and‘Mode 2'to a Triple Helix of university industry government relations, Res.
Differences to the USA and Changes Over Time, WIFO, 2005.48 J. Romanainen, National Governments, Contribution to the DG Research Expert Group on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.
He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. 582 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582
and Malaysian governments on their national profiles of scientific activity. He currently works for the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, of the Delft University of Technology,
TA originally emerged to balance power between the legislative and executive branches of government, 1 but has moved increasingly towards providing useful knowledge for actively shaping technology.
and has 35 years experience in futures research with governments, UN organizations, corporations, universities, and nonprofit organizations.
the possible impacts of results of barometer on government policy-making are rather indirect than direct ones.
In Finland, the sectoral research system of government administrations will be renewed, underscoring the following four topics: regional and community structures and infrastructures;
Even as follow-up of the High-tech Strategy of the government 2, administrated in the same ministry,
As part of this analysis we organised a two-day international workshop gathering thirty environmental scenario practitioners from governments
One study for the U s. government suggests several steps for using long-range forecasts more effectively,
and report how government responds to forecasts 33. In addition, developing networked, small, flexible, task-oriented,
managerial teams in government's executive branch overlaid on the existing bureaucracy could significantly enhance the government's ability to analyse
both within government and its core target groups. Those networks of actors are seldom willing to accept changes in core aspects of relevant policies.
Oftentimes, external experts are commissioned by governments and public administration to produce forward-looking analysis, leading to problems of lack of ownership and trust and a greater motivation to ignore
Discussions pointed to recent approaches to strengthen capacities for scenario planning and foresight within governments. Examples include:
The UK government has institutionalized a Comprehensive foresight Programme which is based in the Government office for Science based in the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills.
A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 UK government's strategy on flood and coastal erosion risk management,
While there seems to be embedded a lot of tacit knowledge in government and public administration related efforts are reported seldom
and interests faced by governments makes it difficult to establish a key client, frame the purpose and gain the participation of all relevant participants.
The compartmentalized structure of modern governments is a key barrier to more integrated policy thinking and decision-making
Current conditions in many governments and public administrations constrain the ability to effectively pursue direct forms of scenario-based decision support.
conflict constellations and diverging concerns for scientific credibility, legitimacy and relevance, both within and outside government and public administration.
in particular because Finland involves a modus of interaction between government and parliament. Several studies point to the need of central coordination and a high political backing, ideally at cabinet level or head of government level,
flexible, task-oriented, managerial teams in government's executive branch. Soft links are concerned with creating more informal spaces for discussion and exchange between policymakker and their key stakeholders, in an ongoing mode with few official outputs.
and there is no standard approach towards its institutionalization within government and public administration. This is not only natural in a booming field
Sound process management needs to exploit existing routes to influence, such as policy networks, the media, business schools or schools of government.
References 1 Wavfrify, The role of futures thinking in government: report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:
Indeed, the requirement for a‘championing department'is now common practice in the UK Government's Foresight activity.
even though the UK Government's current Foresight activity appears to bask in a more receptive Box 1 Taxonomy of policy maker's dilemmas.
many leaders in business, the professions and government; competent, self-reliant and efficient, but tend to be materialistic,
The EUFORIA Project synthesis report, Report to the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living Conditions, Working Conditions and Industrial Relations, October, 2003.2 K. Cuhls, Government foresight activities
Engagement with various publics is on the agenda (UK government initiatives, and elsewhere) but have been ad hoc and mainly centred around technology developer outreach programmes.
and are agreed to Coordination of governance stemming from technology promoters see Fig. 1..Government instigated voluntary reporting,
government actors attempt voluntary initiatives but there are tensions. This was the case at the time of writing w. r. t. the UK voluntary initiative.
forensics and identification technologies were stimulated the focus by government grants, small companies begin to commercialise this technology Broader context of comparable innovation journeys:
Other governments look at Finland's targeted explorations and developments in nanotechnology for the paper sector Lock in as path enabling:
other governments look on with envy at the focus of Finnish nanotechnology. This is a mirror of anticipatory coordination in other geographical regions 39,40..
Government official Nanotechnology promises to revolutionise all industry sectors, paper production could seriously be enhanced through nanotechnology and as a small country,
Other national governments look with envy at the rapidity of developments of the targeted nano programmes of Finland.
A regulatory task force is set up by The british Government to identify possible regulatory gaps that could be filled Potential path shifting event:
UK government explores regulatory landscape. The report shows various gaps and issues (this was the case with the DEFRA report already.
The report pushing for mandatory government oversight, identifies many gaps but the major emphasis lies on the fact that nano regulation is difficult due to increasing complexity law is equipped less to oversee products and processes such as active nanostructures
NGOS and governments become more concerned but find no clear inroads into the governance arrangements a lock in
Reference to UK government report of 2012 identifying gaps stimulates finger pointing at regulators for not following up.
therefore to the recognition that there is a need to introduce into processes of government and business decision making a much stronger orientation and capability to address the future in a more systematic way.
and governments have an interest in the overall priorities of national expenditure on these areas.
etc. 3. Case studies 3. 1. Research councils and national research programmes Research councils and national research programmes account for a smaller percentage of total research funding than direct government funding of universities and research institutions,
in addition to basic funding of universities and other government laboratories, research programmes contribute to competition within the research system. 3. 2. About the study
Followiin the change of government in Denmark in late 2001 the energy research programmes were cut by two-thirds in 2002,
but with tighter cooperation with the strategic research council's activitiies Other reforms are expected in coming years as a result of the Government's Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy (The Prime minister's Office 2006).
However, at the beginning of the turbulent period following the change in government, the role of the Advisory Council changed slightly,
The Energy research programme refers to targets and their horizons in the Government's energy policy: 2030 and the Kyoto Protocol's timeframe of 2008 2012.
and research programmes can be of legitimate strategic interest to governments. Our analysis shows that research councils and research programmes do carry out strategy processes
the process needs to include decision-makers at the national policy level government, politicians and key civil servants at least if implementing the results is important.
The government then merged the two organisations into Energinet. dk, a governmentally controlled entity that operates the main electricity
the Luxembourg government decided in 1999 to increase the level of publicly funded research. Accordingly, the government went on to develop a focused STI policy,
which began with the establishment of several new institutions, including: the Ministry of Culture, Higher education and Research (MCHER) as the key policy centre with respect to Luxembourg research;
In addition, the government increased spending on publicr&dfrom 0. 08%of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1999 to 0. 3%in 2004 and plans a further increase to 0. 58%by 2010.3 Figure 1
including the policy (government) level, the strategic research funding agency) level and the operational (research performing institutes) level (OECD 1991).
After the Government's agreement on the list of national priorities, this new strategy and the foresight results were then put together in a new approach:
the levels of engagement by the private sector and other branches of government were disappointing,
government policies in relation to research and technology had predominantly been inspired by an approach that today is labelled often as‘picking winners':
With the recognition of the limitations of government's ability to actively plan and shape future developments in an efficient and fully informed manner,
In line with these concepts, the 1990s were also characterised by a great reluctance of government policy to prioritise research themes and select technologies in a top down manner.
From this network perspective, policy making is not just about government, but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
For government policy to be effective, this implies a need for participation of stakeholders. Further, the role of government is shifting from being a central steering entity to that of a moderator of collective decision-making processes.
With such an open and distributed model of policy making in mind it is recognised now increasingly that an opening of political processes is necessary to ensure the robustness and the effectiveness of its outcomes.
thus fostering the socioeconomic development of thevienna metropolitan area by giving those impulses a regional government can specifically provide.
but mainly with respect to the activities internal to the city government and public administration, where the strateeg indeed serves as a major reference point.
but helps identifying power structures related to government (Stoker 1998). However, since foresight methods and practices are always part of an organisational setting, local, sectorial, regional or otherwise,
12 Organizations, including Australian manufacturing, power, gas, investment & government. Low High tech Fit Tech Coverage Tech Concentration Hungry?
On another level, the Dutch government allocates research support to universities based in part upon their publication records.
binstitute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre of the European commission, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain In 2005, the Finnish Government
for example, once during the electoral period, the Government produces a report on some salient aspects of the future of Finland.
both the Government's report and the Committtee'response are debated then in a plenary session of the Parliament (see, e g.
when the Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system at large.
In this decision, the Government emphasised that the research system is to be developed in its entirety, with the aim of improving the quality and relevance of research and development activities.
The Government also noted that key measures towards this end will include the establishment of shared priorities, the strengthennin of the national and international profile of research organisations,
In effect, the Government's decision ascribed new tasks to the Academy of Finland and Tekes.
when the Government's decision was known to be forthcoming. At this stage, Raimo Väyrynen the President of the Academy of Finland,
when the Government took decisions towards the implementation of a national strategy in which the establishment of Strategic Centres of Science,
and Innovation policy Council as of January 2009) is to assist the Government and its ministries by addressing, for instance,
major matters in relation to research and innovation policy by preparing related plans for the Government. 7. See http://www. tekes. fi/eng/strategic centres/8. For examples,
Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies. Technology analysis and Strategic management 14, no. 2: 183 200.
sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Continuing the call for the FTA COMMUNITY to move on from identifying priorities,
'or‘homology'of structures as necessary in order to fulfil the function of government, i e. executing some tasks
a corresponding failure in the working of government and a lack of legitimacy would occur 19.
it involves Government and Parliament. -the arena of programming in between the governmental and the research performing actors, deals with (1) translating the objectives of the former in specific scientific priorities
and implement a European vision validated by policy makers and governments. It has produced a Strategic research Agenda (SRA) created through the concerted efforts of experts from industry, academia,
The commercial environment is constantly evolving through the interactions of thousands of variables from market-driven pricing processes to government regulations, from consumer opinion to market competition,
and government), the analysts know that the technology or topic will have widespread impact (see Fig. 3). The second part of the meeting consists of identifying the topics
While the rationale for innovation policy remains anchored in the Arrow concepts of market failure for many government economists,
An early example of this concept was the Finnish Governments knowledge cluster programme of the mid-1990s.
government exercises, Technological forecasting and Social Change 60 (1)( 1999) 37 54 (18pp..5 J. Gavigan et al.
which occurs when various interest groups (industry, academia, government, NGOS, etc.)and different geographical areas (countries, regions, etc.
and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.
Extensive There was an extensive engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry. T. Ko nno la et al./
Extensive There are broad engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry. National Technology foresight in China Informative Understanding future S&t developments and needs.
Extensive Very diversified stakeholders from government academia and industry have participated in NTFC. Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
Extensive Diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry are very active in the process of TF2020. a Commissioned by the Nordic council. b Commissioned and conducted by VTT Technical research Centre. c Commissioned
f Commissioned by the Finnish Government. g A FP5 IST Thematic Network (2002 2005) coordinated by JRC-IPTS and managed in collaboration with DG Information society. h Commissioned by JRC-IPTS.
a term used by governments to describe material assets that are essential for the functioning of a society and economy (such as electricity generation and distribution, telecommunication, transportation systems, public health, financial services,
and by commissioning a survey that is consulting leaders in governments, business NGOS and the academic sector.
This reflectsawareness that it isimpossible foroneall-knowing policy organisation or level of government to grasp all of the intelligence that is needed to make sense of future challenges and opportunities.
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
i) sociocultural evolution,(ii) corporate industrial activity and (iii) government interests. While there has been a great deal of emphasis on the development
sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
sociocultural evolution and government interests that are important in the quest for new forms of governance relating to them.
'3. Governance The shift from‘Government'to‘Governance'and to the new global‘regulatory'state explains the substantial changes in legislation,
Policy documents, such as the European commission's White paper on Governance 10 reflect the need to move beyond formal processes of government and public administration,
The implications of this approach for relationships between the society and public policy explain the shift from the government to governance.
How FTA ACTIVITY can support such moves must be set against the three pillars of corporate industrial activity, sociocultural evolution and government interests,
According to the government-commissioned State of The english Cities reports 19, there are five different dimensions of social cohesion:
every firm needs tacit or explicit permission from governments, communities and other stakeholders to do business offering a concrete way for a business to identify social issues that matter to its stakeholders
and accountability which is linked to transparency and the rule of law. 6. Government interests: society and corporate activity A central assumption behind innovation systems theory is that knowledge is the fundamental resource in the modern economy
socio-cultural evolution and government's interests, creating the need for newforms of governance. There is no doubt that innovations in international relations
Ultimately any government's interests lie in the‘nuts and bolts'of policy that involve the synthesis of possibilities from the two lower boxes in Fig.
But what would then be the role of government and industry in developing human capacity and enabling the literacy of citizens at large?
and other stakeholders taking into consideration social impacts and social dimensions of its value chain in a competitive context as well as its relationships with employees, customers, governments and society at large.
managing and interpreting the outcomes of Foresight exercises that involve leaders from a diverse range of governments,
In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
Taleb 10 has derived also a series of principles for organizations governments to try to avoid he kinds of disruptions that Black swan events tend to cause.
when discontinuities occur in society and government, the changes tend to be more significant because they can alter so many other domains. 2. 5. Weak signals The final key term is‘‘weak signals''.
or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?
The responses from the respondents from governments were balanced more between long, medium and short time horizons.
Respondents from Academia and Government took the lead in drivers assessment with 32%and 25%respectively.
On the contrary, the respondents from Government, Business, and other Table 3 Examples of drivers. Examples of critical drivers by category A b c Society & Culture 46 Increased citizen participation with the help of collaborative Web tools International mobility of educated workforce improves cultural
it is the opposite for the participants from the Government, where the majority (40%)has a shorter time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards.
NGOS and Students were identical, where about 52%of the respondents suggested medium level of likelihood. 50%of the respondents from Government and Business stated high likelihood of occurrence.
and Governments who consider that most of the weak signals will occur in the mid-term (2016 2025).
and coherence of the response of national governments to the emerging economic difficulties was evidence that appropriate anticipatory intelligence was in place and available.‘‘
government led foresight programs need to focus on a clearly identified client, there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.
''These themes were reflected in the expert interviews. Based on experience of formal evaluation of foresight programs, it was claimed that‘‘lack of success had very little to do with the quality of the work that has been done and much more to do with initial and subsequent political positioning''.
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
Jack Smith Government of Canada. Greg Teggart Victoria University, Australia. Sandy Thomas Foresight, UK Government office for Science.
FTA Conference, Seville, 2008.3 J. Calof, J. Smith, Critical success factors for government led foresight, in:
Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government, where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Prime minister's Office is in charge of the work for each government foresight report. The work is carried out in co-operation especially with the Ministries relevant as regards the topic of the foresight report
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
the government commissioned several studies on issues concerning the effects and ways to prevent or adapt to climate change.
Before and partly simultaneously while preparing the government foresight report on climate and energy policy, the government also decided on a long-term climate
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration NGOS, energy business and researchers of various fields,
In government foresight process, the majority of participants were experts but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009.
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
This internal evaluation was conducted by the Prime minister's office. One has to bear in mind that the evaluation concerned the whole foresight report,
All in all, three evaluations of the government futures report were conducted where the scenario process was discussed also:
The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report. The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
The extent of constructing scenarios in the government foresight report was defined as unique and pioneering. Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well,
and Energy for the next government was proposed also. Concerning the application of foresight methodologies used in this kind of work
Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
An open question remains how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in Government Foresight report.
2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
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