10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.006 1. Introduction When is a foresight process effective? At the end of a recent foresight and scenario development process in Austria,
but rather to map the diversity of opinion. 4 Today, by bringing together in a foresight process not only experts,
Several critical questions can be raised with respect to the biases brought in by the foresight process itself: Can we really trust the expectations raised in a foresight exercise?
I. Miles, O. Saritas, Evaluation of the United kingdom foresight programme, Final Report, DTI, London, 2006.13 K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Evaluating a participative foresight process:
We also wish to thank Dr. Leena Paavilainen for her major contribution to the design of the foresight process.
Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,
These are mainly impacts associated with the foresight process itself, i e. with the way in which foresight exercises are designed and implemented.
'The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory.
In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are associated strongly with the evolution of‘participatory knowledge societies',this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.
The available literature7 on foresight impacts notes that it is mainly the foresight process impacts that contribute to certain characteristics of the emerging‘knowledge society'.
The evaluation of the eforesee Foresight exercise in Malta 7 highlights even more the value of the foresight process as an agent of cultural and behavioural change.
This training not only ensured the quality of foresight process and its results, but also helped embed a wider and deeper foresight culture
The examination of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework characterising participatory‘knowledge societies'provides indications that foresight can contribute to the emergence of such societies in terms of:
L. Georghiou, Evaluating a participative foresight process:‘‘Futur the German research dialogue',Research Evaluation 13 (3)( 2004) 143 153.3 R. Barre, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:
that is, keep universities as the‘unit of analysis'when conducting a foresight process. Another one is to emphasise the importance of several driving forces
Further, foresight process aligns the participating actors around emergent agendas, resulting in a coordinated mobilisation of people, resources and actions.
's account of The BMBF Foresight process. This well designed process breaks new ground in being concerned explicitly with enabling foresight as a sustainability asset for Germany's status as a R&d-innovation leader with specific elements also aimed at four innovative targets:
By carefully defining the interface between the foresight process and the formal strategic planning process we could considerably improve the range of critical context conditions 7. As experienced in our empirical application case,
Network building and participation in the foresight process provide an opportunity to affect the future developments and to create more desirable futures.
action and renewal are mentioned as the phases of the foresight process 9. The process starts with the pre foresight phase where rationales and objectives,
whether the foresight process has helped to achieve its objectives. The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to the evidence based and from expertise to interaction based working methods.
but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.
and accuracy of the analysis. The foresight process as well as the risk assessment process is a knowledge making process.
For instance, scenario analysis may be just a little part of the whole foresight process and, therefore, conducting risk assessment only to the produced scenarios may be difficult.
PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process. A new risk analysis framework was created.
The German Foresight process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics.
Some of the results of this foresight process will be integrated directly into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country.
Foresight process Fully fledged foresight Bibliometrics Strategic partnerships Research alliances 1. Introduction In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process
The BMBF Foresight process as it was called, subtitle Implementation and Further development of a Foresight process, was conducted by a consortium comprising the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (Fraunhofer ISI) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (Fraunhofer IAO).
Other institutions like the Technical University of Berlin, the Institute for Nanotechnology (INT) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, the RWTH Aachen, the Austrian Research centres Gmbh (ARC), Systems Research Division Dept
the German BMBF Foresight process addressed all these dimensions, albeit with different emphases and in different stages with a new combination of methods.
The BMBF Foresight process aimed at: 1) Identification of new focuses in research and technology 2) Designation of areas for crosscutting activities 3) Exploration of fields for strategic partnerships 4) Derivation of priority activity lines
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 2. Search phase of the process The second phase of the foresight process encompassed a further national and international search, interviews with Monitoring Panel participants,
During this second phase of the foresight process, the 14 topics were confirmed, renamed, split, converged and newly formulated.
the whole foresight process did not start with asking for the demand as e g. the predecessor process Futur 13,14
The principle of the concept of the online survey questionnaire is shown in Fig. 4. The first page of the online survey explained the BMBF Foresight process and the online survey in general.
The challenge for the BMBF Foresight process from 2009 onwards was the design of concrete strategies to address some of the topics identified.
the foresight process as such is finished as a project, but the process of integration is continued still.
and impacts of the BMBF Foresight process? How does it fit into the recent developments in Foresight methodology,
As the BMBF Foresight process can be called a fully fledged foresight process (in the sense of Georghiou et al. 31),
Informing policy is one of the major features of the B MBF Foresight process. Gaining an overview about topics that are relevant for
The current BMBF Foresight process is about science and technology it needs experts who are able to understand
however, whether the policy system can be directly reconfigured by such a foresight process. Nevertheless, even if this is not directly intended
In the BMBF Foresight process, an impact is expected on the interdisciplinary or interdepartmental collaboration concerning new
. Whether the BMBF Foresight process will be successful in balancing participatory elements and closed internal processes will depend on different factors.
Exactly this is the basis of the BMBF Foresight process. It is not a research process as such but a Service contract for the consortium.
In this sense, the BMBF Foresight process is not an inherent, completely embedded process because intentionally, two institutions are performing the methodological part of the process that are regarded as neutral in having no direct thematic stakes in the process (although indirectly,
The BMBF Foresight process is intended to keep a certain distance to lobbies of topics on the one hand, but integrate them with a neutral perspective on the other hand.
the BMBF Foresight process worked undercover and was publicised not as much as the predecessor processes in order to make the identification of new topics possible
Participatory Priority Setting for Research and Innovation policy, IRB Publishers, Stuttgart, 2004.14 K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Evaluating a Participative Foresight process:‘
She manages the consortium that runs the BMBF Foresight process for the German Federal Ministry for Research and Education.
Increased inclusivity in the Foresight process is one way in which this can be addressed and trust may be reestablished,
Jenssen discusses the challenges of inclusivity in a participative foresight process in terms of achieving genuinely democratic decision making.
so that they can be involved in a foresight process representing a stakeholder group. Amunicipal foresight activity in Lundal is described to illustrate how an image for young people was created to endow them to be represented as stakeholders in the process.
The focus is less on priority-setting as a result of a foresight process and more on knowledge creation and knowledge sharing by the various actors during the process;
(or otherwise) to underpin the foresight process with sufficient and appropriate‘objectivised'knowledge (including national statistics,
As previously highlighted, such decoupling of the foresight process from centres of policy formulattionimplementation is not unusual,
and its introduction into the foresight process at specifically designed points in order to supply participants with the necessary data as and when required.
This experience looks very much like a successful foresight process in terms of the impact it had and still has on policy and decision making,
the experience of the process lends itself also to some more speculative observations regarding the medium-to long-term impacts of the foresight process. 5. 1. Immediate,
short-term impacts The short-term impacts of the foresight process look quite impressive. In terms of its informing function, it certainly contributed to giving research and innovation more prominence and visibility in the context of urban policy.
and the impact of the foresight process in making these options real. Overall it is justified certainly to assess the impacts of the process positively in the short term. 5. 2. Intermediate,
Although the foresight process was targeting the time horizon 2015 (and in some instances even beyond),
In fact, it was a lucky coincidence that the foresight process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'could draw on a comprehensive analytical basis provided by the research programme‘Systems Research in the Urban area
but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable
It arises when social stakeholders are made participants in a foresight process aiming at producing one desired vision of the future.
Evaluating a participative foresight process: futur the German research dialogue. Research Evaluation 13, no. 3: 143 53.
and phases of the foresight process The delineation of foresight panels was an iterative process where the Core group explored some alternative rationales for choosing panel titles, even in view of international experiences,
Because Finnsight was a foresight process of two funding agencies with different but complemenntar roles in the R&i system,
The foresight process which was designed by the Core group and approved by the Steering Group was based on panel-centricwork where each panelwould have three half-a-day meetings.
nevertheless to provide feedback on the foresight process and the panel reports in April 2006. In this survey
more than 95%of the respondents9 indicated that the foresight process had been rewarding to them (in the sense that responded with a 5,
objectives and policy functions on the one hand and nature of decision making structure and their relation to the Foresight process on the other. 2. 2. Why more tailoring?
In the realm of foresight, the process of list generation is taken over by the foresight process itself.
The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects.
The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
Informative outcomes refer to the use of foresight process and dedicated methods to improve the awareness and understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
fixed vs. autonomous The foresight process can be taken up with different kinds of management approaches, which are driven often by the diverse expectations laid on the project.
when the people participating in the foresight process typically have heterogeneous backgrounds, which occurs when various interest groups (industry, academia, government, NGOS, etc.)
are engaging in the foresight process. This means that special attention must be paid to the organisation of the process
Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.
both dimensions may play important role in the design and management of a foresight process. 2. 4. Chosen emphasis in stakeholder engagement:
Extensive stakeholder engagement in a foresight process in which experts are involved also allows stakeholders to become better aware of signals of change
Other benefits that could be achieved through the Foresight process include creation of linkages among participants, development of a shared understanding on the various issues at stake,
policy interests may also enter in the foresight process and create rigidities and difficulties to provide new and fresh perspectives for change.
In the UK, the Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) a Directorate General of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) conducted a foresight process that produced as a key output a report‘‘the DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
It may often be appropriate to design a foresight process as informative when it addresses a new
In the Nordic H2 energy foresight, the appropriation of the knowledge from the foresight process into various stakeholder organisations was seen as being accomplished through such activities as pilot projects
and posits being developed in the foresight process, relating these to the interests and goals of their organisations.
on foresight process and results Conference papers Project website Fig. 2. Different foresight elements in a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation, a SECI perspective.
The concept of uncertainty enters again into the Foresight process when for purposes of scenario planning there is an attempt to define the key drivers
and that they would be motivated by the opportunity to add content ideas additional to their evident Foresight process expertise.
The preordained backcasting scenario approach was notable in this foresight process in two senses: 1. by their nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target orientated),
In government foresight process, the majority of participants were experts but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
in addition to providing the background for the four scenarios that were the final result of the whole foresight process.
Results and policy implications The final results of the foresight process were four scenarios that all fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 per cent from the 1990's levels
Regardless the choice of the methods, ample time to carry out the given foresight process so that it can best serve the needs of the client,
We also interviewed external consultants who were involved in the foresight process. Finally, we interviewed a sample of leading experts from academia
The foresight process then investigated the technical and economic feasibility of the concept, which the top management decided to endorse by establishing a new brand and a subsidiary start-up.
It also attempted Figure 6. Nordic ICT Foresight process (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a,15. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
‘‘The BMBF Foresight process'',paper presented at the 3rd International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, October 16-17, Seville.
even if the foresight process was designed and conducted with maximum care and methodological stringency. Research policy makers do not just require the structured view of the future that foresight activities provide
and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
In the first phase, the results of the Foresight process were reframed to pinpoint their relevance to each of the BMBF units
Experience from the German BMBF-Foresight process, ''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville.
In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry
and by pointing at benefits in the various phases of a foresight process: it reveals the structural features of the data
and can inform the foresight process on emerging links or relationships, groups or clusters. The implication for foresight methods is that network analysis can introduce a‘systemic'perspective emphasising relationships between actors,
or they simply distrust the foresight process, because they have not been involved themselves 67. Finally, policy-makers are concerned still very much with the shorter term,
As a result, their direct involvement in the foresight process will not only increase its robustness, it may also lead to higher acceptance levels and legitimacy.
Proficiency and Publishing. 14 Da Costa et al. 72 illustrate the stepwise organisation of the participatory process by suggesting the application of varying degrees of participation in each phase of the foresight process
if at all possible, the benefits derived from the foresight process itself (such as for instance network building and improved collaboration) and the improvement of the decision-making process,
and institutions (e g. administrative system and political system) that are involved in the performance of a foresight process and implementation of the results.
The tolerance for deviant ideas also has implications for the selection of methods that include stakeholders in a foresight process.
and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.
Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected. This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase,
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
Therefore, the methodology set up (Fig. 2) for the IMS2020 foresight process was defined in a way that would ensure the highest relevance to inputs coming from the industrial community.
and be affected by the Foresight process, and (iii) investigation into the formal and informal networks and procedures,
Also, a stand-alone and self-sustaining foresight process run by EICT could draw on the broad data basis available through the involvement of all partners.
we opted for an adaptiiv foresight process: adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
Althooug there can be a wide range of benefits associatte with the foresight process, all interviewees mentioned the importance of the results of foresight being used to inform
inspiration and appropriate temporal perspective Foresight process criteria Structured way of production and deliverance of foresight thinking;
Neither case was suited well to the collaborative nature of the foresight process, and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
Workshops to conduct the foresight process were held in the region. Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed.
but which emerges over the course of the foresight process and cannot be formalized as a deliverabbl (European commission 2011).
and incorporates different visions into the foresight process, different points of view, contributing to the success of the entire exercise and to the quality of the final results.
They suggest changing this anticipatory thinking by transforming the foresight process into a horizontal organisational function that permeaate all levels of the parallel innovation process.
The foresight process provides a‘hybrid forum'for strategic reflection that broadens the range of participation on policy issues.
The success of the systemic foresight process could be evaluated, for example, by the ideas it has created that could be potentially important for multiple stakeholders
The responsibles for the shaping of research agendas realised that a systematti participatory bottom up foresight process could streamline the engagement of Research and Technology development communities from eight countries.
Stakeholders25 had specified roles and responsibilities in each consecutive phase of the foresight process. Their inputs were solicited
coordiinat activities and work towards a common research agenda and mutual research funding activities in field of animal health Structured long-term foresight process to develop,
and an SRA workshop) The majority of the foresight process is, however, still to be implemented, and there are plans to further refine the SRF.
The planned foresight process (see Fig. 2) consists of a pre foresight phase and four foresight phases. Interestingly, a pilot call is part of the foresight process,
and will comprise targeted research within a two-year span in order to broaden the knowledge base in three areas:
and of research infrastructure planning with these programmmes The participation of the actors in research systems in a foresight process may also promote transparennc
which permits the decomposiitio of the foresight process into manageable sub-processes and enables transitions between different levels of abstraction by way of problem structuring and synthesis (Ko nno la et al. 2011).
capabilities and culture in transnational programming also calls for flexibility in the design and management of the foresight process.
those in charge of the foresight process should anticipate, and even prepare for, later modifications in the implementation plan.
Hence, while ensuring the scalable, fast and efficient implementation of a transnational foresight process by way of structured and parallel activities coordinated in different modules
These developments were addressed directly in the Fraunhofer foresight process at that time (Klingner et al. 2008. 2. 1. 5 Fifth example.
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